Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 DIXIE PENNY scratched out of a different $5k conditional claiming race on opening day and finds a similar par, dynamic however a slightly higher purse and could be intent on that front for the connections and where they could find a claim as well. Bendezu named on Thursday remains in the saddle and while they will make their first Hawthorne appearance together here, the pair had success teaming up at FAN/FP last June.

#5 WRITTEN CONSENT has the benefit of Hawthorne and current form showing up back on this circuit and in their third start of the cycle. The change in class is closer to a lateral move though back to a preferred position on the Plot for their runstyle, today’s race shape under conditions where they have been effective in the past. Reyes jumping back aboard also to suggest intent, a rider with a pair of wins and a place finish last year. 

Becker/Bendezu could come right back with another live runner; #6 LAST GASP. She brings in early speed, holds one of the highest recorded dirt figures in the field and overall form (to compete here) off the races to date. She finds class relief off the recent series of contentious MCL events at Oaklawn and follow upgrade from both the 12/27 and 1/23 races up close to Fast/Very Fast early dynamic. She wheels back for the second start of the cycle, coming back from the TROUBLE_S stumbling and taking contact out of the gate on 3/14.  

In terms of number the figure for LAST GASP back in December stacks up in line with rival #5 ILLY SIMZ also returning from Oaklawn a much tougher spot on 3/9 outclassed on 2/14 and while a credible effort in the 2/1 debut, she did not catch the toughest group on the day.

#2 GOLDEN NOTE holds the highest recorded figures in this field and capable on that front, however making a change to the dirt and shorter sprint distance looking for those figures to translate under these new conditions. Similar will be tested for #3 GOUVERNATRICE, though class relief for the E. Lopez barn a barn starting the meet strong with two wins on opening day and while early days, must respect that trend.

#1 ENTICING OPTION is a longshot and ultimately could require more ground showing as much on the turf (STRETCH) last October. Though has shown run in spots and exiting productive events at TP while making a return to this circuit and going back to the first part of the 2024 Hawthorne season, trainer T. Young started off with live runners, opened up with a perfect 4-for-4, another trend to respect. 

#1 MONDOGETSBUCKETS showed run in the two starts last year, very tough, much higher race par than today’s event and fir the connections they should hold those figures returning here despite giving up recency. They have some edge in maturity as just one of two 4yo runners in this field. Those two figures (73, 82) stand out much higher than today’s 50-42 par and much higher than their rivals in this field to present as the clear horse to beat. While listed as the ML favorite, the 5-2 projection is more than fair – with the two L. Rivelli runners, that assignment could stick.

#4 REGAINED POWER showed early speed (and wagering support co-favored off 7-2 ML) typical for many debuting L. Rivelli runners in the February turf sprint debut as part of the Fast early (Fast late) pace before losing ground, stalked by the winner. Mega Magic. They will be joined by stablemate #5 VIA DEL CORSO one that has the benefit of a local work and foundation from the FG where they stabled and training since last fall without a start – they should fit on this circuit, might need a race and off the visuals even the grass. 

#7 KING ANTHONY brings in current, progressive and competitive form out of tougher (higher par) claiming race at Oaklawn Park. They showed run with the B- OptixGRADE back on 1/18 that race followed up with a near “excuse” on 2/15 with the WEATHER conditions, raining/poor track conditions and lunged out of the gate (SLOG) before chasing WIDE. They also caught different WEATHER conditions on 3/8 with light rain and a drying out track another SLOG/TROUBLE_S and strong CLOSE despite the outcome. They reunite with O. Mojica, the rider aboard for the two wins last season and in terms of race shape. They should have pace to chase given the complexion of this field – a “Sun” Contention two E Runners in #1 ALL ABOUT TONITE and #6 LATE BLACKSMITH and EP runner #5 SOMNUS and with the change in class and race par KING ANTHONY can sit closer to the pace, trips similar to those over this course from June and July. 

#6 ECHO DREAMER  was a big 93-1 upset winner going back to opening day last year breaking her maiden off the layoff and at the 5f distance. She showed that was no fluke competitive all season long with consistent figures racing at the statebred level out at IND. The connections returning to Hawthorne closing day (10/13) found some class relief and return to winning ways picking up the 7.7-1 score. Bendezu aboard for both wins jumps back up today for trainer M. Quinonez, the barn already picking up a win with Plunder ($9.60) on opening day.

ECHO DREAMER tends to stalk and pounce (Q2/4 Square) tends to stalk and pounce and should have pace to target with the “Sun” Contention and higher 72 SpeedRate as shown on OptixPLOT.  While looking at OptixPLOT will notice the Circle of #7 GRACE CANDY (no value/weak) as well as the Red Keywords in the Past 3 Runlines as well as the conditions as she is racing above condition at today’s N3 while still N2 eligible.

GRACE CANDY was run down by #3 QUEEN ANNA T under the 5f TP $5 N2L conditions back on 2/1. Off the win, QUEEN ANNA T can be upgraded from the 2/27 start – a complete EX _EXCUSE from the TROUBLE_S/RUSH to rider TACTIC_ getting stuck behind horses (TROUBLE) and in hand (NO_PUSH) after. She will find the slight freshening with a return work over this course where she broke her maiden last season.

#7 TIE BREAKER LENNIE could maiden-breaker Lennie today with the change in circuit and overall form and figures that fit as the horse to beat and edge over the other runners shipping including those from TP. Their form and higher recorded figure suggest a horse that prefers racing at the one-turn distance and while the 5f is likely shorter than their ideal, the edge on class/speed should carry and could work out a first run tracking trip.

TIE BREAKER LENNIE is represented by a Large Q2 Square, next to and splitting the Par Line. The early pace should be honest with #2 UPTOWN TOM and #6 ULTIMATE FIGHTER together in Quad I and Above the ParLine as well to suggest an honest early pace from those two. They could be joined by some of the other lightly raced types with a FTS in #5 PLAYGROUND WARRIOR and #3 MISCHIEF EXPOSED also could show early speed despite what appears a stalking trip on the Plot with the class drop and from prior races showing early speed and to date has lost ground in each race without passing a horse.

#4 MALIBU FINALE finds a reasonable spot returning from the layoff and for their sophomore debut. Intent could follow with the changes here; picking up an aggressive rider in J. Felix along with the change in class. They will make their Hawthorne debut though is no stranger to Cicero as they were training here last year (published works over the summer/fall) and needed more time to get race ready with the timing not in their favor before the end of the meet in mid-October. 

As noted with the 2024 trend earlier in an analysis and something to follow earlier on the card with #9 GITA’S LAD could be upgraded on that front as well as looking at OptixPLOT with a potential pace advantage as a Q1 Square (the edge over Circle, #4 U S HONOR NAP) with a front end run of the race.  

#3 VANISKY was hustled to make the two 2024 Hawthorne starts, though was not race ready at the time and showed massive improvement at Oaklawn in the 12/13 return, enough to given them a longshot look on 2/3 when finding the right barn and level and responded with a competitive showing and show result. Back up in class 11-days later played against them on 2/14 (DROP) though not as “obvious” as the TROUBLES+ on 2/28 taking a stumble losing the rider out of the gate and had the break been clean on the day VANISKY might have been competitive that afternoon and all around gives them a big look here.

#1 DANVILLE appears reclaimed for Hawthorne by F. Villa out of the MVR race earlier this month a competitive showing that day despite a softer recorded speed figure making a WIDE CLOSE as the top two together at the wire with the race shape starting to slow late. DANVILLE holds plenty of races over the years at Hawthorne to fit on par most of their races to date at a higher level. They closed out 2024 while in the Villa barn, a series of races at the higher N1 level and dropping on 10/10 closing week at the claiming level had a legitimate EX – EXCUSE with the TACTIC TROUBLE impacting their race - arguably cost them the win and the public money racing as the favorite that day.

In terms of value there are some potential concerns on that front with #10 NILES CHANNEL based on their current form and pattern of gate issues at shorter odds. That is a greater concern than remaining on the main track. They have plenty of dirt efforts/figures that fit on par to suggest they handle dirt – at least enough for today’s level. The off-track and NO_PUSH can put a line though their 12/28 race and starting off this current form cycle has shown positive improvement with D. Cohen jumping aboard a live sign as well. 

Day two of the racing season as we have carryovers in the P6, Late P5 and Hi 5. The Late Pick 5, starting in race 3, is a must play with the carryover of $7,305. In the opener I'll give the nod to 2-DIXIE PENNY as she scratched out of the Thursday finale for this spot. That race Thursday was won by Be My Bestie, who came out of the same race as this one at Oaklawn in her last. Dixie Penny has enough speed to contend early and should be right there the entire way. 1-LADY HELENA gets the rail draw as she makes her Hawthorne return. She has found the board in 3/4 over the track and was a winner in New Orleans with Murrill in the saddle last out. 5-WRITTEN CONSENT ran a better race than looks on paper in her last. She got away a step slowly before running into early contention. She was shuffled back in the turn before coming on again late. With clear sailing in here she should be a factor in the lane.

The Late Pick 5 kicks off here with a carryover of $7,305. It is worth the play for sure as only a couple of upsets need to occur for a big payout. 4-REGAINED POWER runs for Rivelli as he makes his second career start. The fact that he stays at the MSW level is key as I expect he shows speed early and runs on late. 1-MONDOGETSBUCKETS runs for Block, who had a nice winner with Cohen aboard on opening day. The two Churchill starts were against tough company and he held his own in each. He has worked well, and consistently toward his return as he will take a lot of action. 6-RED RIZZLER is still searching for his first career win but he has had success at Hawthorne throughout his career. He figures to rate in the second flight early and should be running on in the lane.

There won't be much value here, but 7-KING ANTHONY is going to be the one to beat. The Hernandez barn got a victory on opening day with Be My Bestie, who was coming in from Oaklawn, and this is another returning from Hot Springs. He has back class and has run his best races at Hawthorne. 1-ALL ABOUT TONITE has speed and may be able to clear the lead. If loose, he could steal this one as an off track would move him up as well. 5-SOMNUS is the other with some early speed. The main concern with him is only one work toward the return, but he held his own against some solid runners last summer and merits a look at a price.

A new face to Hawthorne, 1-HONOR HIS HALF figures to be tough on the drop. She ran a huge number two races back with the blinkers on, before taking them off for some reason last out. Blinks back on in here as she could control things from the inside. 6-ECHO DREAMER has to be worth a look as she is 2/2 at Hawthorne. She broke her maiden at 93-1 last spring but that wasn't a fluke as she found the board in four of her next six starts, including another win. She will need some pace to chase but may find it in here. 3-QUEEN ANNA T is another that will likely get a good stalking trip as she returns to where she broke her maiden. If she can tuck in behind the leaders and wait until the lane to move, she should be in contention every step.

I'm thinking the move back to the dirt is a plus for 7-TIE BREAK LENNIE, as his figures on the main track were much stronger than that of the poly. He finds a field that has three possible pace horses as he should be able to bide his time before looking to move in the lane. 2-UPTOWN TOM is one of those with speed as it appears he will be on the gas from the start. He's going to need to shake free from Mischief Exposed and Ultimate Fighter early to have a shot but with the inside draw, and the bug in the saddle, his only option is to send. 6-ULTIMATE FIGHTER also has speed, and has run improved races in his last four. He has worked consistently in the off season and should be fit for the return.

Best race of the card is the finale as we have a High-5 carryover of $1,587. Although winless at Hawthorne, the majority of the Hawthorne starts were against better on the grass as 10-NILES CHANNEL should be very tough in here. He ran a strong race against similar at Fair Grounds last out, battling the entire way from the outside draw. He draws outside again, but with the main speed just to his inside in Gita's Lad, he should be able to tuck in early and look to run on late. 1-DANVILLE has had success at Hawthorne, finding the board in 16 of 23 starts over the track. The distance suits and he's another that moves up on an off track. If there is pace to chase, 7-PLAIN OR PEANUT should be picking off horses late. He's been able to post three works toward his return and likes this Hawthorne strip. At a price he will be worth a look in the gimmicks.

This looks like a two-horse race. 1-LADY HELENA dominated in a nickel claimer at Fair Grounds about a month ago while 2-DIXIE PENNY has had lackluster recent races at Oaklawn. However, Dixie Penny is more accomplished and she has been meeting better rivals all along. It wouldn’t be a surprise if either of these ladies but it would be a major surprise if any of the other runners in this race finished first. 4-BLAZINGLY has the best-of-the rest look.

6-LAST GASP takes blinkers off. Her form seemed to decline in her two races with them. She’s been finishing up the track at Oaklawn but appears poised to improve dramatically in her local debut. 5-IZZY SIMZ is another shipping in from Oaklawn. You can ignore her last race because she was in against better and she never recovered after a poor start. Her previous races weren’t too bad. She could easily be favored in this spot and might deserve it. 3-GOUVERNATRICE drops. She finished far back in all of her races but all were against better and all were around two turns. Could easily improve in this spot.

Nice little maiden race for early in the meet. I’m going to go with one of the two Rivelli-trained runners. 4-REGAINED POWER was well played in his debut in Louisiana and did display good early speed but quickly faded to last. However, that race was on turf and he’ll be on the main track today. He’s had two long drills in the seven weeks since that race. Guessing he’ll be better prepared for this one. 1-MONDOGETSBUCKETS races for the first time since June and races for this barn for the first time but he’s had a log series of good drills and he races for a barn that does well with fresh horses and those debuting for them. 5-VIA DEL CORSO, the other Rivelli-trained runner, is making his career debut. He’s had a good series of drills coming into this race. The barn wins with 36% of their first timers. This one figures prominently. 3-BIGFOOT SIGHTING shouldn’t be overlooked. Claimed from his last start, he finished second in his last two. His new barn does well with their first-time claims.

Can’t like the form of 7-KING ANTHONY but he’s dropping a couple levels while shipping in from a tougher meet. He won two of his previous three local starts. Could add another local victory. 6-LATE BLACKSMITH might not be first from the gate but he figures to get to the lead before too long. Three recent drills should have him ready for his first start in three months. His barn started two at the meet and won both. Don’t ignore. 3-CITY OF CLOUDS moves up off the claim. He should be dead fit since he’s been racing all winter. He finished second on synthetic in last but most of his prior success was earned on dirt tracks. 

This race could prove to be too short for 6-ECHO DREAMER but she does have a win at the distance, she looks like the only real closer in a field with decent speed and she’s two for two on this track. 3-QUEEN ANNA T only split the field in her first stab at this level but she did win her prior start, her first race for this barn. 1-HONOR HIS HALF adds blinkers. She is dropping in claiming price but goes from Louisiana breds to open company. However, she has been racing regularly and good current form is always tough to beat.

Strange race. A few of these runners are dropping a bunch. Probably have to go with 3-MISCHIEF EXPOSED. He’s had 11 races without showing a lot but all of those starts have been against better rivals. He just finished third in a restricted $30k claimer. He has some speed in a field with only one real front runner. Might put that rival away quickly. Have to look at 7-TIE BREAKER LENNIE. He finished third in his most recent start at Turfway and the horse that finished second in that affair came back to dominate here last Thursday. 4-MALIBU FINALE and 1-HEARTBREAK GAME both drop from $30k maiden claimers. They faced each other in that December Turfway race. Both finished far back. Heartbreak Game gets first Lasix which might make the difference but he’ll apparently be piloted by a jockey that ridden since 2023.

It’s been nearly a year since 9-GITA’S LAD last raced but he has a speed advantage, he’s loaded with back class and his recent drill seems to suggest that he’s ready to roll.

 It seems like 1-DANVILLE has raced here forever but this is only his 68th start and only his 23rd locally. Not in love with his chances but it does seem like he might be rounding back into form and he has always had an affinity for this track and distance. Normally like runners stretching out and 8-MON AMIE FUZZIE fits that description but he’s had 54 career races and only four of them have been around two turns. And, he finished up the track in all four. However, I think his current trainer is underrated and this gelding has been in pretty good form while meeting tougher rivals.