Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 DIXIE PENNY scratched out of a different $5k conditional claiming race on opening day and finds a similar par, dynamic however a slightly higher purse and could be intent on that front for the connections and where they could find a claim as well. Bendezu named on Thursday remains in the saddle and while they will make their first Hawthorne appearance together here, the pair had success teaming up at FAN/FP last June.

#5 WRITTEN CONSENT has the benefit of Hawthorne and current form showing up back on this circuit and in their third start of the cycle. The change in class is closer to a lateral move though back to a preferred position on the Plot for their runstyle, today’s race shape under conditions where they have been effective in the past. Reyes jumping back aboard also to suggest intent, a rider with a pair of wins and a place finish last year. 

Becker/Bendezu could come right back with another live runner; #6 LAST GASP. She brings in early speed, holds one of the highest recorded dirt figures in the field and overall form (to compete here) off the races to date. She finds class relief off the recent series of contentious MCL events at Oaklawn and follow upgrade from both the 12/27 and 1/23 races up close to Fast/Very Fast early dynamic. She wheels back for the second start of the cycle, coming back from the TROUBLE_S stumbling and taking contact out of the gate on 3/14.  

In terms of number the figure for LAST GASP back in December stacks up in line with rival #5 ILLY SIMZ also returning from Oaklawn a much tougher spot on 3/9 outclassed on 2/14 and while a credible effort in the 2/1 debut, she did not catch the toughest group on the day.

#2 GOLDEN NOTE holds the highest recorded figures in this field and capable on that front, however making a change to the dirt and shorter sprint distance looking for those figures to translate under these new conditions. Similar will be tested for #3 GOUVERNATRICE, though class relief for the E. Lopez barn a barn starting the meet strong with two wins on opening day and while early days, must respect that trend.

#1 ENTICING OPTION is a longshot and ultimately could require more ground showing as much on the turf (STRETCH) last October. Though has shown run in spots and exiting productive events at TP while making a return to this circuit and going back to the first part of the 2024 Hawthorne season, trainer T. Young started off with live runners, opened up with a perfect 4-for-4, another trend to respect. 

#1 MONDOGETSBUCKETS showed run in the two starts last year, very tough, much higher race par than today’s event and fir the connections they should hold those figures returning here despite giving up recency. They have some edge in maturity as just one of two 4yo runners in this field. Those two figures (73, 82) stand out much higher than today’s 50-42 par and much higher than their rivals in this field to present as the clear horse to beat. While listed as the ML favorite, the 5-2 projection is more than fair – with the two L. Rivelli runners, that assignment could stick.

#4 REGAINED POWER showed early speed (and wagering support co-favored off 7-2 ML) typical for many debuting L. Rivelli runners in the February turf sprint debut as part of the Fast early (Fast late) pace before losing ground, stalked by the winner. Mega Magic. They will be joined by stablemate #5 VIA DEL CORSO one that has the benefit of a local work and foundation from the FG where they stabled and training since last fall without a start – they should fit on this circuit, might need a race and off the visuals even the grass. 

#7 KING ANTHONY brings in current, progressive and competitive form out of tougher (higher par) claiming race at Oaklawn Park. They showed run with the B- OptixGRADE back on 1/18 that race followed up with a near “excuse” on 2/15 with the WEATHER conditions, raining/poor track conditions and lunged out of the gate (SLOG) before chasing WIDE. They also caught different WEATHER conditions on 3/8 with light rain and a drying out track another SLOG/TROUBLE_S and strong CLOSE despite the outcome. They reunite with O. Mojica, the rider aboard for the two wins last season and in terms of race shape. They should have pace to chase given the complexion of this field – a “Sun” Contention two E Runners in #1 ALL ABOUT TONITE and #6 LATE BLACKSMITH and EP runner #5 SOMNUS and with the change in class and race par KING ANTHONY can sit closer to the pace, trips similar to those over this course from June and July. 

#6 ECHO DREAMER  was a big 93-1 upset winner going back to opening day last year breaking her maiden off the layoff and at the 5f distance. She showed that was no fluke competitive all season long with consistent figures racing at the statebred level out at IND. The connections returning to Hawthorne closing day (10/13) found some class relief and return to winning ways picking up the 7.7-1 score. Bendezu aboard for both wins jumps back up today for trainer M. Quinonez, the barn already picking up a win with Plunder ($9.60) on opening day.

ECHO DREAMER tends to stalk and pounce (Q2/4 Square) tends to stalk and pounce and should have pace to target with the “Sun” Contention and higher 72 SpeedRate as shown on OptixPLOT.  While looking at OptixPLOT will notice the Circle of #7 GRACE CANDY (no value/weak) as well as the Red Keywords in the Past 3 Runlines as well as the conditions as she is racing above condition at today’s N3 while still N2 eligible.

GRACE CANDY was run down by #3 QUEEN ANNA T under the 5f TP $5 N2L conditions back on 2/1. Off the win, QUEEN ANNA T can be upgraded from the 2/27 start – a complete EX _EXCUSE from the TROUBLE_S/RUSH to rider TACTIC_ getting stuck behind horses (TROUBLE) and in hand (NO_PUSH) after. She will find the slight freshening with a return work over this course where she broke her maiden last season.

#7 TIE BREAKER LENNIE could maiden-breaker Lennie today with the change in circuit and overall form and figures that fit as the horse to beat and edge over the other runners shipping including those from TP. Their form and higher recorded figure suggest a horse that prefers racing at the one-turn distance and while the 5f is likely shorter than their ideal, the edge on class/speed should carry and could work out a first run tracking trip.

TIE BREAKER LENNIE is represented by a Large Q2 Square, next to and splitting the Par Line. The early pace should be honest with #2 UPTOWN TOM and #6 ULTIMATE FIGHTER together in Quad I and Above the ParLine as well to suggest an honest early pace from those two. They could be joined by some of the other lightly raced types with a FTS in #5 PLAYGROUND WARRIOR and #3 MISCHIEF EXPOSED also could show early speed despite what appears a stalking trip on the Plot with the class drop and from prior races showing early speed and to date has lost ground in each race without passing a horse.

#4 MALIBU FINALE finds a reasonable spot returning from the layoff and for their sophomore debut. Intent could follow with the changes here; picking up an aggressive rider in J. Felix along with the change in class. They will make their Hawthorne debut though is no stranger to Cicero as they were training here last year (published works over the summer/fall) and needed more time to get race ready with the timing not in their favor before the end of the meet in mid-October. 

As noted with the 2024 trend earlier in an analysis and something to follow earlier on the card with #9 GITA’S LAD could be upgraded on that front as well as looking at OptixPLOT with a potential pace advantage as a Q1 Square (the edge over Circle, #4 U S HONOR NAP) with a front end run of the race.  

#3 VANISKY was hustled to make the two 2024 Hawthorne starts, though was not race ready at the time and showed massive improvement at Oaklawn in the 12/13 return, enough to given them a longshot look on 2/3 when finding the right barn and level and responded with a competitive showing and show result. Back up in class 11-days later played against them on 2/14 (DROP) though not as “obvious” as the TROUBLES+ on 2/28 taking a stumble losing the rider out of the gate and had the break been clean on the day VANISKY might have been competitive that afternoon and all around gives them a big look here.

#1 DANVILLE appears reclaimed for Hawthorne by F. Villa out of the MVR race earlier this month a competitive showing that day despite a softer recorded speed figure making a WIDE CLOSE as the top two together at the wire with the race shape starting to slow late. DANVILLE holds plenty of races over the years at Hawthorne to fit on par most of their races to date at a higher level. They closed out 2024 while in the Villa barn, a series of races at the higher N1 level and dropping on 10/10 closing week at the claiming level had a legitimate EX – EXCUSE with the TACTIC TROUBLE impacting their race - arguably cost them the win and the public money racing as the favorite that day.

In terms of value there are some potential concerns on that front with #10 NILES CHANNEL based on their current form and pattern of gate issues at shorter odds. That is a greater concern than remaining on the main track. They have plenty of dirt efforts/figures that fit on par to suggest they handle dirt – at least enough for today’s level. The off-track and NO_PUSH can put a line though their 12/28 race and starting off this current form cycle has shown positive improvement with D. Cohen jumping aboard a live sign as well.