Handicapper Tips & Picks

T 7 Chicago Hall 1 Fishermans Blues 5 P C Chttahoochess

P 6 My Last Kiss 3 Saulsbrook Annie 2 Pam

T 1 P L Srirachaa 7 Pahokee 5 International Love

T 4 Bright Green 2 Roxie Hart 6 Film At Eleven

P 6 Rustys Bet 3 Flying For Trev 2 Convoy Twenty Two

P 4 Gooned Again 7 Amazing Wish 2 Sadies Delight

T 5 Exquisite Taste 6 Houston Seelster 7 Barnyard Brenda

P 6 Dirty Lil Piglet 1 Bet Nineteen 4 Lets Get Pickled

P 8 Wifey Said So 7 Tells Bells 6 Allessandra

P 9 Bettor Than Pride 5 Bettorholdontight 1 Modern Writer

#5 PIONEER PARADE finds a favorable spot on this circuit where she can race protected and still compete. She brings in current form from the races this year winning as the BOS back in January and stepped up in class three weeks ago stayed on as a the BOS through a Fast early race shape to hold show in those Turfway events. In terms of speed figures class and today’s shorter distance she fits on par and the edge in those categories for today’s shorter sprint distance over rivals #4 LEMON BOMB and #6 BANNED FROM MIDWAY also returning from the Turfway meet to this circuit.

While #2 SHIP IT brings in recency from Oaklawn Park, current form and figures come in on the lighter side and in terms of the Plot, she lines up similar to #3 RACEDAY ATTIRE one that does give up recency off the 116-day layoff though will trade for local experience and solid Hawthorne record along with shorter sprint placement. Her D. DiZeo stablemate #1 MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN will also give up recency coming back from the 200-day layoff and while she has the Speed (Above) to compete the shorter distance change is different factor all together. While she has some shorter sprint experience, and those races were fine for today’s level she was also on turf/synth and might prefer that footing when going one-turn for a late run. 

This is a tough race where current form and training trend from opening week upgrades #1 CARAMBASO and #3 GOOD TO BE PRINCE in this spot for their connections and timing out of the FG meet. Both runners will race for the claiming tag, though a higher claiming tag for the pair and higher from when they have been up for the claim in the past as further positives.

T. Tracy brings back a pair of runners and both returning from layoffs and reasonable they could benefit from a start and move forward after a seasonal debut. With that said, the barn has a solid record with returning long layoff runners and even in the sophomore category. Both in solid hands though looking through the sample, J. Loveberry named on #2 BETTER THAN GOOD has had the call and success with these type of runners often live including some on this circuit such as graded stakes winner, Wild Bout Hilary when she made her 2024 seasonal debut winning at the overlaid 16-1 here at Hawthorne last March. D. Cohen picks up the call #4 EXCELLENT EMPIRE a rider that also has had success for this barn at Hawthorne, most of that on the grass.

#5 SPINNING PRIDE also brings in recency from the debut win two weeks ago and will race protected. They were able to make the lead, PRESSED earning a solid figure with the 18-1 win, the longest shot runner in a scratched down five horse field. While they can compete off the figure with today’s group, today’s group is also a step up when it comes to par and in slightly in the case of purse. 

This is a highly competitive race where a case can be made for many in this group. Trainer E. Rodriguez sends out two of those placed where they can win and bring in current form from the FG meet. #1 SUPREMELY has been a popular claim this year and races protected here following the win earlier this month and with the blinkers remaining on and the rail draw once again could look for a similar front end trip under M. Murrill, a live rider with success in the opening week. #6 WE MISS ARLINGTON has the benefit of Hawthorn form going back to last year and success in IL for this barn to upgrade and form with O. Hernandez aboard.

Outside of that pair, could see #7 UNRAPTURED fly under the radar despite bringing in a current two race win streak. Part of the public dismissal could be due to the claim and barn change exiting the higher profile barns (Cox, Ramsey) from Turfway going off the claim to Sergio Donjuan. The barn will make them their first starter on this circuit and looking at the group of other claims this year, the barn has been able to keep horses in their current form and that current form fits on par here.

#5 COALMINER’S KITTEN was well prepared to win on closing day of FAN/FP last year with the layoff line and dominant (B+) score back in November. They will be tested to run back to that top off another layoff though perhaps not out of the question for M. Quinonez again and another barn with success opening week, including Echo Dreamer with a perfectly ridden trip from A. Bendezu. 

#4 EL MUCHO makes a belated return and reasonably post back on this circuit for the connections with main rider, A. Centeno aboard. They find a cagey spot here off the layoff with this IL-bred runner where they can compete and at the same time race protected. The return race last season, the 3/24 start, was eye-catching a BTL effort given the higher level of competition and in-running trip from a SLOG TROUBLE_S to making a massive middle BURST and overall visuals to suggest they can IMPROVE – which they did winning their next start, a belated return on 10/24 at FAN/FP.

EL MUCHO should hold value in this race as they look to upset their former stablemate, #5 PURPLE OCTOPUS. Reclaimed by L. Rivelli last June they will make a belated return to the races and also racing protected from the 291-day layoff. They will also return at this level racing above condition; a horse that is N2 eligible racing N3 here. With that said, they could handle the “rise” given prior speed figures and even placement with today’s par closer to a lateral par from where they had raced competitively in the past.

Those two come into this race fresh and will face runners from opening day, horses returning with the conditioning from opening week to move forward from as the meet progresses and coming back from their layoff:  The 5.5f might be a touch on the shorter end for #3 ANCIENT MAN though looking over their past performances and form cycle pattern has been able to step up speed figure wise in a similar turnaround and distance change in the past and should be overlooked in this spot. Their two efforts under similar conditions last fall fit on par. #7 I’M YOUR CAPTAIN has had many tries at this N3 condition and come up short to support on the win end with confidence, though a better one turn type to run their race and pick up a share. 

While all the respect to #4 IDEA MAN in this spot, though as the projected favorite, will try to find other “ideas” in this race. The other R. Martinez runner #1 LORD GRANTHAM one that just fits this eligibility and could not fully discount a horse that in the past has posted some of the higher speed figures in this field and does not often run a “bad” race, while the lack of recency and 5f distance could be a potential hurdle.

#5 DRAGON DREW is the lone runner in this field with the edge on recency. In addition, they bring in a buried shorter sprint form and could be overlooked off the recent running liens and finishing positions while making their way back to the dirt. Their “every other” form cycle pattern suggests a return to a top coming back in this race, a flow upgrade (Fast early/late) from the 3/19 start and a clever spot here for the new connections.

#3 STAR OF KODIAK won off the layoff and under similar N1 conditions last year. They overall form fits in this spot and though trip and tactics will still be key with the shorter 5f distance.

The 5f distance could also be a challenge on the win end for both #6 UNCAPTURED PULSE and #7 CHRISTMAS PRESENT two runners that a strong contender case could be made for at the 6f or even 5.5f distance. Both runners are not out of contention here, though require the right number as trip is crucial.

*The overall race note is this is the type of event that could be a key race going forward. 

The return to Hawthorne and the shorter sprint distance should provide the edge for #5 ALDORA in this spot. Those factors assisted her last season and with the maiden on 4/21 as the legitimate favorite on the day. Number wise and in terms of picking up checks she has remained consistent since. There are some jockey’s jockeying around with D. Cohen taking over on ALDORA as J. Loveberry remains with #7 KIKI KRAZY for the connections and in form on an improving pattern for this third start off the layoff and since the barn change for T. Tracy.

Number wise #6 THEREDGOESONFOREVER recorded the highest last out figure breaking their maiden dominantly (B+) less than two weeks ago at the FG though has some hurdles as they take on older for the first time, a rise in race par and purse from that 3/21 race and the race shape also a downgrade with a Slow early and Very Slow late race shape.

#3 SUMMER OF MISCHIEF has consistently recorded speed figures on par and find some class relief back on this circuit and from the 3/8 race/ She moved up was competitive picking up the 1/30 win - that race in at the open $16k claiming level at Turfway presented a similar par and purse to suggest on this circuit she is placed where she can compete – and still race protected. 

Rivelli appears to hold a strong hand in this race with a pair of sophomore fillies: #2 ARRIVEDERCCI earned a figure on par with the more experienced type runners from her debut last July, a race where she was compromised with the TROUBLES+ stumbling and bumped out of the gate and to her credit a credible effort behind, Lit Miss Hat Trick – one that will make their return in Race 6. While ARRIVEDERCCI is not a FTS she can almost be treated as such given the adversity first out and the long layoff that followed and has a steady strong of return works while making their seasonal debut and statebred debut as well.

Stablemate #8 SMOKED was training at Hawthorne last year unable to get race ready and noted gap in the published works from June until January. She comes in with steady works this year at the FG with the longer local drills to provide fitness and potential intent with J. Loveberry aboard. Both SMOKED and ARRIVEDERCCI worked from the gate (along with Purple Octopus – Race 4) with SMOKED losing ground on those workmates in that drill.

Fellow FTS #3 DISGUISED DEVIL also was in training last sprint, a layoff that followed and recent strong local works every 6-days that is tough to ignore while also getting in very light with 10-lb apprentice rider, V. Esquivel named. Trainer M. Reavis does not have a big sample of FTS to hold the overall stat against them in this case and does show a win going back to 2021 at AP (8f turf MSW) to suggest they are capable with the right runner. 

After a day of rain on Wednesday, things look to be good on Thursday as the track surface at Hawthorne drains very well. The opener is competitive as I'll give the nod to 4-LEMON BOMB in here. Equibase speed figures are notoriously inflated in synthetic surface races so you need to look back to the dirt, where Lemon Bomb was sharp and consistent in dirt sprints in 2024. She has speed, runs for a high percentage barn, and picks up Felix in the saddle. 3-RACEDAY ATTIRE could be a bit of a sleeper in here as she has had past Hawthorne success. She makes her first start of the year off a couple of drills, but could benefit if Pioneer Parade goes with Lemon Bomb early. 5-PIONEER PARADE ships in with speed as she merits a look as well. Loveberry picks up the mount as he is primed for a good meet. She's another with past conventional dirt form who will take her share of action.

A good bunch to kick off the Early Pick 4. 3GOOD TO BE PRINCE runs for the hot Rodriguez barn as everything has been live to open the meet. Mitch Murrill is riding very well as this one should get a perfect stalking trip. 1-CARAAMBASO is the one to beat as he has speed and has been competitive against tough company this meet. It looks like he is at his best on a fast track, which he should catch after the rainy Wednesday. 2-BETTER THAN GOOD makes his 2025 debut off a good string of drills, including a bullet work on March 19. He won in his first career start last summer and likely bled in his second race. He gets Lasix in here and may be sitting on a big race.

A good starter group with numerous runners in with a shot. Trainer Max Quinonez has a nice win last Sunday here and has 5-COALMINER'S KITTEN in here for his first start on the year. He closed out 2024 on a high note and has run well over this track in this past. He will need pace to chase and should find it in this spot. 2-RED LABEL grabbed a couple of Hawthorne victories last summer before taking some time off after his July start. He has just one work on the year so he may need a start, but the price makes him one that is worth a look. 1-SUPREMELY was a sharp winner in his first off the claim last out. He showed improved speed in that start and drew clear late. Let's see if he wings it from the rail once again.

While likely the best in the field, 5-PURPLE OCTOPUS is skipping a condition for this race but runs for top connections. He has been away since last June but was brought to New Orleans this winter and has trained consistently toward his return. There's not much pace in this race as I expect he is sent away early and looks to wire this field. 6-CUPID'S WAR was a good winner here last week as he rated close and drew clear in the lane. There wasn't much pace in that race as he figures to be in a stalking position in here. 3-ANCIENT MAN may be the price play as he ran a decent race around two turns here last week. Fitness doesn't look to be an issue as he should be closing late in this sprint spot.

Right back to a Quinonez runner in the fifth as there could be some value in this spot. Looking to 3-STAR OF KODIAK as he makes his first tart of the year off a couple of drills. He has won five times over this Hawthorne strip and has been solid at this distance. He figures to rate and run on late, so we will see if there's enough pace to chase. 1-LORD GRANTHAM could rate close from the inside. He has just the one work but Martinez typically has his ready to roll. I expect he is forwardly placed and could hang around if there isn't much early pace pressure. 2-JUSTICE ONCE shortens up as he has worked well toward his return. He may need to hustle a bit for early position in here but figures to run on in the lane.

A good allowance bunch with a couple with early speed. One of those with pace is 3-SUMMER OF MISCHIEF as she comes in off a sharp effort in her first race off the claim. If you dig deeper into her past performances, you will see good dirt races at Churchill, which should put her right there in the mix with these. 7-KIKI KRAZY is one that figures to run on late as she sprints for her second straight start. She got a work over the track since her last start as everything from the Tracy barn looks ready to roll. 5-ALDORA has tactical speed as she should get a good stalking trip in here. She's been sharp in a pair of Hawthorne starts and just needs another to go after Summer of Mischief early to help her chances.

Looks like Rivelli could go 1-2 in here as it is just a matter of which way they run. Because she has the start under her belt, let's look to 2-ARRIVEDERCCI as she adds Lasix for her second career start. She debuted here last summer and ran well. She trained through the winter in New Orleans and should be a different racehorse now. 8-SMOKED debuts from the outside as she has a nice pattern of drills coming into today's start. She gets Lasix first out and picks up Loveberry in the saddle. 1-LIONS LAW has run close and figures to break her maiden soon. She has tactical speed and will take advantage of the rail that is drying out.

2-SHIP IT completes the sprint-route-sprint cycle. She’s been running out of gas lately but she ships in from a far tougher meet. Her barn does well with runners turning back. 5-PIONEER PARADE improved after moving to this barn to start her 2025 season. She’s probably the quickest of these. She won her first start of the year but faded to third in last after grabbing the early lead. Might last the distance with the move back to dirt. 1-MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN is hard to gauge. She was in terrific form when she was running late last year but she hasn’t raced since September and she’s been far, far better going long. But she has been training well and her most recent form needs to be considered.

With every member of this field probably wanting the lead, it could look like a quarter horse race early. But think 1-CARAMBASO is the quickest and should be first to the lead. However, he does seem to fade quickly if he doesn’t get an easy early lead. Slim pick. 3-GOOD TO BE A PRINCE, like top choice, ships in from Louisiana. He is also a runner that likes the front end. He just broke his maiden. However, unlike top choice, he’s repeatedly carried his speed throughout in his recent races and has stayed competitive throughout. He would probably be the pick if this race was at six furlongs. I like the way 4-EXCELLENT EMPIRE has been working. All of his races have been in Iowa and he’s racing for the first time since September but he dueled for the lead throughout in last, his maiden victory, and he’ll be racing with first Lasix today.

It looks like claiming 1-SUPREMELY for $5k was a supremely smart claim. They already got their money back after he won his first start for this barn and now he’s eligible for these starter allowance races for a couple years. The barn and rider are already off to hot starts at the meet. This one could add fuel to the fire, although he could face considerable competition for the front end. 5-COALMINER’S KITTEN makes his first start of the year but he’s been training forwardly, he should get a near ideal pace setup in front of him and he’s another whose connections are already doing great. He dominated in his final start of 2024, his first race for this barn. Could pick up where he left off. 7-UNRAPTURED will be coming late. He won his last two at Turfway, where he was claimed from last. He’s been far more successful on synthetic tracks but has done enough on dirt to figure he can run with these.

5-PURPLE OCTOPUS could be a standout. It’s been 10 months since he raced but he has been training well for his return. Speedy sort was claimed from last by a barn that wins with 25% of their first time claims. The “tell” however, is that he’s coming back under the waiver-claiming rule that allows him to return to race at the last level he was claimed at in no danger of getting claimed. That says a lot for a barn that churns runners. 1-ALVIN is an interesting runner. He raced on opening day, going long, and finished far back. But he did display good early speed. It has to be noted that his barn wins with 27% of runners making their second starts off long layoffs and with 29% of runners making their second start within seven days of their last race. 6-CUPID’S WAR was an easy winner on opening day. He took the lead soon after the start and drew away to win as he pleased. However, he will be taking on tougher today and he probably isn’t the quickest of this bunch.

Hard race to “like” anybody in this race without a lot of early pace but I’ll take a flyer on 7-CHRISTMAS PRESENT. He’s had only one drill since his last race in October and he’ll be making his first start for a barn that doesn’t win a lot of races but he was in good form before going on vacation and he has always had an affinity for this track. 4-IDEA MAN is probably the one to beat. He won two of his last three races and had been in pretty good form for quite a while before those wins. He’s another that has always done well here. Could deliver at the low price that he’s likely draw.  5-DRAGON DREW looks like the best speed. However, virtually all of his success came on turf and synthetic and his previous dirt races leave a lot to be desired. But he will have the early lead. Might stay there.

5-ALDORA looks tough. She’s making her first start in a couple months but has continued to train well during that time. She wired the field here to break her maiden almost exactly a year ago but she’s just as capable when coming from right off the pace. 3-SUMMER OF MISCHIEF might be the quickest member of this field but it’s unlikely that she’ll be able to grab an unchallenged lead. However, she has been in competitive form for quite a while and doesn’t wilt under challenge. Might be able to put the rest of the speed away. 6-THERDGOESONFOREVER is an interesting runner. $300k purchase was dropped to low-level maiden claimer after a poor outing in her career debut. She responded with wire-to-wire win, from which she got claimed. She’s likely to try for the lead and could give Summer of Mischief a run for the money.

8-SMOKED doesn’t possess the best workouts but she’s a full sister to the brilliant multiple stakes winner Jean Elizabeth. If she possesses a third of her older sibling’s ability, she’s going to be tough to beat, especially for a barn that wins with 38% of their first timers. 2-ARRIVEDERCCI, stablemate of top choice, finished third in her career debut. That race took place in July when she was only two. She stumbled at the start and wasn’t able to recover in time in that very short sprint. But she’s a year older and she’s racing with first Lasix. Wouldn’t be a big surprise if she crossed the finish line first. 3-DISGUISED DEVIL has been training very well for her career debut. Her barn used to “own” the spring meet here. Just not too sure about the apprentice rider with only one victory in his brief career.