Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 PIONEER PARADE finds a favorable spot on this circuit where she can race protected and still compete. She brings in current form from the races this year winning as the BOS back in January and stepped up in class three weeks ago stayed on as a the BOS through a Fast early race shape to hold show in those Turfway events. In terms of speed figures class and today’s shorter distance she fits on par and the edge in those categories for today’s shorter sprint distance over rivals #4 LEMON BOMB and #6 BANNED FROM MIDWAY also returning from the Turfway meet to this circuit.

While #2 SHIP IT brings in recency from Oaklawn Park, current form and figures come in on the lighter side and in terms of the Plot, she lines up similar to #3 RACEDAY ATTIRE one that does give up recency off the 116-day layoff though will trade for local experience and solid Hawthorne record along with shorter sprint placement. Her D. DiZeo stablemate #1 MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN will also give up recency coming back from the 200-day layoff and while she has the Speed (Above) to compete the shorter distance change is different factor all together. While she has some shorter sprint experience, and those races were fine for today’s level she was also on turf/synth and might prefer that footing when going one-turn for a late run. 

This is a tough race where current form and training trend from opening week upgrades #1 CARAMBASO and #3 GOOD TO BE PRINCE in this spot for their connections and timing out of the FG meet. Both runners will race for the claiming tag, though a higher claiming tag for the pair and higher from when they have been up for the claim in the past as further positives.

T. Tracy brings back a pair of runners and both returning from layoffs and reasonable they could benefit from a start and move forward after a seasonal debut. With that said, the barn has a solid record with returning long layoff runners and even in the sophomore category. Both in solid hands though looking through the sample, J. Loveberry named on #2 BETTER THAN GOOD has had the call and success with these type of runners often live including some on this circuit such as graded stakes winner, Wild Bout Hilary when she made her 2024 seasonal debut winning at the overlaid 16-1 here at Hawthorne last March. D. Cohen picks up the call #4 EXCELLENT EMPIRE a rider that also has had success for this barn at Hawthorne, most of that on the grass.

#5 SPINNING PRIDE also brings in recency from the debut win two weeks ago and will race protected. They were able to make the lead, PRESSED earning a solid figure with the 18-1 win, the longest shot runner in a scratched down five horse field. While they can compete off the figure with today’s group, today’s group is also a step up when it comes to par and in slightly in the case of purse. 

This is a highly competitive race where a case can be made for many in this group. Trainer E. Rodriguez sends out two of those placed where they can win and bring in current form from the FG meet. #1 SUPREMELY has been a popular claim this year and races protected here following the win earlier this month and with the blinkers remaining on and the rail draw once again could look for a similar front end trip under M. Murrill, a live rider with success in the opening week. #6 WE MISS ARLINGTON has the benefit of Hawthorn form going back to last year and success in IL for this barn to upgrade and form with O. Hernandez aboard.

Outside of that pair, could see #7 UNRAPTURED fly under the radar despite bringing in a current two race win streak. Part of the public dismissal could be due to the claim and barn change exiting the higher profile barns (Cox, Ramsey) from Turfway going off the claim to Sergio Donjuan. The barn will make them their first starter on this circuit and looking at the group of other claims this year, the barn has been able to keep horses in their current form and that current form fits on par here.

#5 COALMINER’S KITTEN was well prepared to win on closing day of FAN/FP last year with the layoff line and dominant (B+) score back in November. They will be tested to run back to that top off another layoff though perhaps not out of the question for M. Quinonez again and another barn with success opening week, including Echo Dreamer with a perfectly ridden trip from A. Bendezu. 

#4 EL MUCHO makes a belated return and reasonably post back on this circuit for the connections with main rider, A. Centeno aboard. They find a cagey spot here off the layoff with this IL-bred runner where they can compete and at the same time race protected. The return race last season, the 3/24 start, was eye-catching a BTL effort given the higher level of competition and in-running trip from a SLOG TROUBLE_S to making a massive middle BURST and overall visuals to suggest they can IMPROVE – which they did winning their next start, a belated return on 10/24 at FAN/FP.

EL MUCHO should hold value in this race as they look to upset their former stablemate, #5 PURPLE OCTOPUS. Reclaimed by L. Rivelli last June they will make a belated return to the races and also racing protected from the 291-day layoff. They will also return at this level racing above condition; a horse that is N2 eligible racing N3 here. With that said, they could handle the “rise” given prior speed figures and even placement with today’s par closer to a lateral par from where they had raced competitively in the past.

Those two come into this race fresh and will face runners from opening day, horses returning with the conditioning from opening week to move forward from as the meet progresses and coming back from their layoff:  The 5.5f might be a touch on the shorter end for #3 ANCIENT MAN though looking over their past performances and form cycle pattern has been able to step up speed figure wise in a similar turnaround and distance change in the past and should be overlooked in this spot. Their two efforts under similar conditions last fall fit on par. #7 I’M YOUR CAPTAIN has had many tries at this N3 condition and come up short to support on the win end with confidence, though a better one turn type to run their race and pick up a share. 

While all the respect to #4 IDEA MAN in this spot, though as the projected favorite, will try to find other “ideas” in this race. The other R. Martinez runner #1 LORD GRANTHAM one that just fits this eligibility and could not fully discount a horse that in the past has posted some of the higher speed figures in this field and does not often run a “bad” race, while the lack of recency and 5f distance could be a potential hurdle.

#5 DRAGON DREW is the lone runner in this field with the edge on recency. In addition, they bring in a buried shorter sprint form and could be overlooked off the recent running liens and finishing positions while making their way back to the dirt. Their “every other” form cycle pattern suggests a return to a top coming back in this race, a flow upgrade (Fast early/late) from the 3/19 start and a clever spot here for the new connections.

#3 STAR OF KODIAK won off the layoff and under similar N1 conditions last year. They overall form fits in this spot and though trip and tactics will still be key with the shorter 5f distance.

The 5f distance could also be a challenge on the win end for both #6 UNCAPTURED PULSE and #7 CHRISTMAS PRESENT two runners that a strong contender case could be made for at the 6f or even 5.5f distance. Both runners are not out of contention here, though require the right number as trip is crucial.

*The overall race note is this is the type of event that could be a key race going forward. 

The return to Hawthorne and the shorter sprint distance should provide the edge for #5 ALDORA in this spot. Those factors assisted her last season and with the maiden on 4/21 as the legitimate favorite on the day. Number wise and in terms of picking up checks she has remained consistent since. There are some jockey’s jockeying around with D. Cohen taking over on ALDORA as J. Loveberry remains with #7 KIKI KRAZY for the connections and in form on an improving pattern for this third start off the layoff and since the barn change for T. Tracy.

Number wise #6 THEREDGOESONFOREVER recorded the highest last out figure breaking their maiden dominantly (B+) less than two weeks ago at the FG though has some hurdles as they take on older for the first time, a rise in race par and purse from that 3/21 race and the race shape also a downgrade with a Slow early and Very Slow late race shape.

#3 SUMMER OF MISCHIEF has consistently recorded speed figures on par and find some class relief back on this circuit and from the 3/8 race/ She moved up was competitive picking up the 1/30 win - that race in at the open $16k claiming level at Turfway presented a similar par and purse to suggest on this circuit she is placed where she can compete – and still race protected. 

Rivelli appears to hold a strong hand in this race with a pair of sophomore fillies: #2 ARRIVEDERCCI earned a figure on par with the more experienced type runners from her debut last July, a race where she was compromised with the TROUBLES+ stumbling and bumped out of the gate and to her credit a credible effort behind, Lit Miss Hat Trick – one that will make their return in Race 6. While ARRIVEDERCCI is not a FTS she can almost be treated as such given the adversity first out and the long layoff that followed and has a steady strong of return works while making their seasonal debut and statebred debut as well.

Stablemate #8 SMOKED was training at Hawthorne last year unable to get race ready and noted gap in the published works from June until January. She comes in with steady works this year at the FG with the longer local drills to provide fitness and potential intent with J. Loveberry aboard. Both SMOKED and ARRIVEDERCCI worked from the gate (along with Purple Octopus – Race 4) with SMOKED losing ground on those workmates in that drill.

Fellow FTS #3 DISGUISED DEVIL also was in training last sprint, a layoff that followed and recent strong local works every 6-days that is tough to ignore while also getting in very light with 10-lb apprentice rider, V. Esquivel named. Trainer M. Reavis does not have a big sample of FTS to hold the overall stat against them in this case and does show a win going back to 2021 at AP (8f turf MSW) to suggest they are capable with the right runner.