Handicapper Tips & Picks

While a logical case can be made for #7 GOOD LORD and #8 WORLD FAIR will look to find some value with others in this field especially for the top spot though could also include #3 MY KID SYD for the minors:

#9 JESTER SANG finds class relief and the right move for this individual taking the DROP to  run at the MCL level. The timing should be right in this second start off the layoff coming off a WIDE trip last month and fitness to move forward and even show more early tactical speed in this group.

#6 MAJOR MACK does not hold any overall edge though upgraded with projected value as well as timing for this individual coming back today on shorter rest than the races this season while also removing the front wraps last out and flow upgrade from the 2/1 race while cutting back to one turn here could be the right all around changes.

#5 IRISH WHISKEY is the lone 3yo in the field of older rivals. They looked to need the start off the works leading up to the 3/2 debut – a debut where they raced GREEN ducking into the gap from the rail made an early move into a fast opening ¼ before losing ground. Today’s race par is higher than what faced first out and a competitive, established group faces them here where a faster and more professional showing will be required.  

The D. Jacobson runners put on show last Saturday highlighted by Banishing and while a graded stakes effort will not necessarily be required in this event, strong efforts is for this contentious starter allowance. #3 PAYNE makes their first start off the claim, races protected and the right move for this one as they are not only on a four race win streak but also on improving numbers and one over the years that has arguably been at their best at Oaklawn. Eventually some regression can kick in, this could be the time after a new two just two weeks ago, though even with a step back and to the prior efforts could compete here something outside of a complete no-show on the track to stay in the mix.

Stablemate #6 SYNTHESIS is less “obvious” though in form and protected here with back numbers and foundation over this course to build off the starts this season. They turned in a “winning” effort on 3/8 with the WEATHER conditions and less than ideal trip (TACTIC-) playing a role in the outcome and likely reason for the change today as a regular rider Camacho jumps back aboard.

In terms of race shape there appears enough pace for the uncoupled Jacobson runners to find their trip and of the pacesetters could upgrade #2 SITKA one that finds a change in class wheeling right back and another with a rider change likely looking for a more assertive hand this time around. 

#6 IN AWE OF JUJU will look to get back to top form with the change in class dropping in for a claiming tag. She was flattered by a PERFECT trip breaking her maiden on debut and to her receipt spared up figures with the effort on 1/31 though exposed on distance and class in the March events. Esquivel picks up the call as Leparoux rides at KEE today and that also opens up the mount for F. Arrieta aboard #1 GEEZ ELOISE returning today to take on winners though does not find a big change in claiming tag price after a voided claim on 2/2 and could see interest at the claim box again here. She is capable at the right level, though a closer lacking early speed where trip, pace is key and price to play.

John Haran also shows up with a pair and more established types though a similar 1-2 in terms of runstyle with #8 TAKER BACK likely to show early speed and clear from the outside with #5 CHIQUITA REINA a closer around ONE_TURN – both bring in similar figures with a top effort though the pair tested for class once again under these conditions.

#3 MUSICAL PRAYER has held her own at this N2 level this season and back under similar conditions reclaimed by S. Asmussen. While there is intent on that front, she lacked punch at this level for the barn back in February and another shorter number can be projected.

#4 AMY Z might sneak away on the board and one that has been at longer odds most of her career. She was valid in that “longershot” role given the prior placement. And as one that has been seeking for the right spot to fit and compete she could find that here. 

#8 BUZZWORTHY brings in upside for this race and positive changes based on her visuals and physicality as they find both the DROP and STRETCH out in distance as upgrades in this race. Those changes could present a move forward number wise and the fitness and foundation coming in for this third career start.

Stablemate #7 MOMENTARIO has the benefit of races this season at the route distance and should move up with the class DROP to run at this MCL level. That move looked to follow after the race opening week, the December start and perhaps before making the move to MCL company wanted to give her another try in February,  a race where she had adversity start to finish and less fancied on that day with her stablemate La Fantastica finishing second as the 5-2 favorite.

#5 ROGUE JUSTICE might sneak away on the board for the connections and brings in upside with the change in class not on the stakes level though competitive numbers for today’s par and positive every other pattern to suggest a top here. The post time odds on #6 EZ TREE ATES for the connections and based on the prior betting pattern and public support going back to last year.

#9 ZEN DREAMS could also find the right time and place with changes for this race in their third start back this season. To her credit she has shown speed figure improvement race to race and with the two turn distance experience on her side.  She could present the slight class edge over #4 KERRY’S KISS another tougher to knock with the improvement shown with the route distance and class drop and validated her longshot January effort and figure coming back last month. She could also be upgraded setting a Fast pace in the 1/31 start and Very Fast early pace last month though in this event could find pace pressure with the complexion of this field - likely including the two on her inside with #1 LET’SGOJLO and #2 TRISTA stretching out. 

ML favorite #2 CHAPTER AND VERSE was logical under similar conditions two weeks ago with the cut back in distance, form and figures from the races this season. While coming up shorter she turned in a credible effort staying on WIDE as the BOS and that was after dropping the rider prerace in the minutes to post.

She will face a full group here many spotted where they can compete and many looking for the maiden win at this point in the season and CHAPTER AND VERSE must bring her “A” game.

#8 ALLTAIL was upgraded with the class drop on 3/7 and upgraded here from that TROUBLE trip and back under similar conditions. She will find a distance change and perhaps some question marks with that cutback as she has been placed at the route, two turns this season.

#7 AIR CASTLE could hold the double digit ML and value in that assignment. She has hold her form this season and in the right level to compete as she has been consistent picking up checks while also finding a similar trip and often from off the pace lacking early speed. That same off the pace trip could also follow #6 QUEEN WILHEMINA one that based on the ML should be shorter of the two and with that assignment lacks value while capable. At the ML a value case could be made for #11 AUNT DIXIE one that must return to the figure from her debut to compete though at the least has shown she has that race in here. She also can be given a flow upgrade from the 3/14 race and no stranger to an outside post.

Further to her outside, #12 SUBLIME HOPE is a bit of a wild-card making the change in class subtle for this second start moving to open company, slightly higher race par. The debut last month was adventurous from start to finish to move up on that alone along with the experience and from the visuals she also looks to have more early speed, tactical speed they were unable to show first out and should show it here. 

This race starts with the assessment of #7 COWAN not the most secure wager at the shorter number as they return from the layoff with the class drop, though the type that is just as likely to win as run out.

While COWAN might not be the one you want to completely leave off the multis in race there could be value to find on others and certainly will have more information with the board and visuals by the time the horses are in the paddock.

#9 ALTO ROAD also returns from the layoff though a less concerning change in class for “high” percentage connections that have been pointing this runner to this meet and to this very level noting a scratch from back on Jan 4 and brings in consistent works since. Torres out for today’s races will have Arrieta aboard – both riders have been paired with #11 LARRY’S LEGEND this season and a pick up mount for Cedillo showing up at Oaklawn following the Turfway meet.

Trying to mix in some longer priced runners: #12 HUSKER BUTCH has yet to run that “winning” race this season or even one of their higher career figures though has those races in them and perhaps some intent coming back with a rider change at the least to mix things up as they return here. 

A tough race to find creativity as the logical runners, the top three on the ML all fit for this race. Leading with #6 BOLT’S TREASURE one that was reclaimed for $25k back in February stepped up last month off a freshening and back down in claiming tag price, something that should see them competitive at the same time where they could be claimed and the barn weighing that in the decision to run in this spot.

#7 DR. STORM moved up as projected with the drop under similar conditions on 3/2 and was competitive with the outside post the SLOG habit and from there making a WIDE MOVE. Claimed on the day they come right back and should hold form for their new connections. #12 ROCKET NIGHT might not necessarily move up off the claim though at the same time does not have to with consistent form and figures that fit. He has lacked that as any hurdle with PERFECT trips and speed figures on par, though does seem to be that hint of class weakness that seems to hold them back from the win.

Trying to pull off an upset: #4 AUDAX MINOR has the sneaky effort a this level back on 2/16 that was not ideal with the trip and that overall effort has them in the mix.

Both of the Moquett runners could see themselves competitive in this race. The slight edge with #8 FULL VICTORY coming out of the higher MCL events than #9 SOUTHFORK back under similar conditions though one that is in their second start off the layoff as the time they should step forward. FULL VICTORY making the class change, a flow upgrade from the 3/8 race while racing in the rain and wind (WEATHER) and picking up first time Bejarano. 

#7 REBELIOUS should hold value in this competitive field. They appear to be progressing forward since the N2 win back in December and in the third start of the this current cycle. They are also second start off the claim picked up for $35k back in January slight step up for $40 in February and now freshened here second off where intent appears in play with the changes including rider with Esquivel aboard.

#10 HOLLYWOOD ENDING was picked up for $50k closing out the CD meet in late December and showed up on this circuit where they appeared to fit in January though perhaps mot race ready with the outcome and the time off that followed before returning last month. There appeared some confidence with the placing to race protected at HOU on 3/2 and off that race show back up on this circuit while in for a tag, not a server drop and placed where they can still compete. They will have to step up slightly to the N3 level something also noted for rivals #4 FEAR OF UNION and #11 SKIP THE LINE taking the rise here off N2 claiming wins.

#8 CHARLESTON is a longshot though second start at this N3 claiming level and appears upside making their second start of the cycle and stretching back out from the 3/14 sprint. If looking for more established recent form both #5 BIG DRINKER and #6 AARON hold competitive races at this N3 level though still require a top.

#3 HE’S GOT SWAGGER is worth including as should fit at this level off class and speed even with their dirt form, though does physically present on the turfy side. There are concerns with the layoff and first start on this circuit though should be race ready for a barn that is capable off these extended layoffs and holds a steady work tab at the same time. Value is required with those hurdles and in terms of trend as the L. Schultz barn was on the colder side during March lacking a win at OP and perhaps this is the month to get back on track. 

#9 ARR PIRATETREASURE turned in a BTL effort with the excuse back in the 1/24 start and hold her form in the both the following sprints with a strong late CLOSE. That trip is key here with the lack of early speed and pace and trip dependent – with that said, she should have some Contention with the Fire rating and with a closer (Q4 Square) paired price compensation.

#7 APPEALING ADDIE showed ability breaking her maiden on debut opening day last season though struggled to get back to form after, playing a role in the two starts that followed. It has been encouraging returning this season with progressive form and figures something that should carry in this spot and subtle change in class with a softer race par coming back from the stakes last month and flow upgrade that followed the route race in Jan.

The timing is noted with #8 QUEEN MALLARD wheeling right back one that had the recovery time following her maiden win in December into a game BOS effort three weeks ago and a repeat performance has her right back in the mix and overall another honest effort can be projected. 

#1 BATTLEOFTHERAVINE must step forward in the speed figure department while on the track they bring in improving efforts from each start this season. The race last month against open company with a similar par and purse to today’s event was game staying on as the BOS through a Fast early and late pace tracked by the favorite Museum Quality.

#10 LOW ON FUNDS will make their first start in at the statebred level and has shown progression and upside off the trips and two races to date. They raced in the rain (WEATHER) as part of a Fast early pace on debut and showed a different dimension forced to run from off the pace after a poor break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) on 3/9.

J. Elliot sticks with LOW ON FUNDS opening up the mount to K. Harr on #8 GOLDEN CITY STREET making their second start and class relief from the debut at the higher MCL level last month showing some run behind eventual open length winner and class dropping Time Andbeyond. #10 CHROMERUNNER another second time starter could attention off the figure as they return here. On debut, they raced GREEN broke SLOG showing run with a WIDE MOVE to benefit from the experience on the quick turnaround.