Handicapper Tips & Picks

A compact competitive group to kick off the card. There are challenges with this race while all are capable given the shorter 5f distance and many returning from layoffs. #4 YO DAWG presents value could be a fourth choice in this race and fits today’s conditions. They have experience with the shorter sprint distance and at Hawthorne with success off previous longer layoffs. The rider change to I. Hernandez is a further positive for trainer J. Berndt – overall live jockey/trainer combination and at Hawthorne since 2020 show a positive $.043 ROI with 12.5% winners and 56% ITM.

Trip for YO DAWG could also be key to stalk and pounce as #1 I AM LOWKEY could be forced to send from the inside one that often breaks a step slog before RUSH and while #2 GAVEL has shown they can rate from off the pace when it comes to the dirt and where they are drawn in this field and distance could see D. Cohen use for position. Those two likely joined by #5 STRANGE ARRANGE outside and one that brings in natural early speed.

Another competitive race and looking at the OptixPLOT () pace should make the race and perhaps help assess the contenders from a race shape standpoint. The “Fire” Contention is paired with the higher 50 SpeedRate – visually represented by more than half of the field to the left of the y-axis as well as above the ParLine. That includes #1 ACCELERATING BABE and #2 SHE’S INTHEARMYNOW (and #6 SISTER SWEDE weaker on second call positional speed from Q3) as Circles – weaker finishing ability to Squares and especially with the presence of Q1 Square #4 DIAMONDS JOY.

That Fire/SpeedRate should assist #3 DESSERT FIRST with a tracking trip while also bringing in some recency (45 days) from the Oaklawn meet for live connections, E. Lopez starting off strong in the opening days. #5 FAST N HAPPY while a Surface/Distance Circle can be upgraded on Standard (current form) as a Square and capable with today’s race shape and overall conditions returning to Hawthorne. Arguably, the 5.5f distance is shorter than her ideal, though with today’s dynamic and price compensation she can be upgraded as value. 

#4 OLIVERIO can be upgraded finding sneaky class relief. Their two starts out at the FG recorded a much higher race par than the events others in the field exit. OLIVERIO will need to step up though if there is a time and place this would be it. C. Roman takes over as another further positive with a small sample of races pairing up with 38% win (including Cupid’s War on opening day) and 61% ITM with a positive ROI.

Sticking with the OptixPLOT theme, #5 BIGFOOT SIGHTING could present a pace advantage (Q1 Square) in today’s field. At the same time, they fit with the current form cycle making a second start of the meet a projected STRETCH in distance from the 3/30 sprint as shown with the OptixNOTES in the Past 3 Runlines.

E. Lopez will also return with #6 JUSTAWALKINTHEPARK (Q4 Square) looks to come closing late, the trip and race shape was odd on the FG Turf last month and not asked late. There has been intent to run on the TURF and perhaps worth another look on the surface, though other visuals is a router and now has the benefit of a race in the blinkers, a fairly full cup addition last out.

#1 MISTER CHARMING should be set up for an improved effort with the STRETCH out in distance for this second start back off the layoff. They return under similar conditions from where they have been competitive in the past and while winless during the 2024 season, today’s par is lower than the bulk of those races to move up this time around. Overall they were consistent, recorded speed figures on par and even a winning/B OptixGRADE effort back in June.

Trip could be key here with the complexion of this race and par for MISTER CHARMING. With the rail draw, they could sit an inside tracking trip, looking at the Surface/Distance Plot, should be able to save ground behind projected pacesetters - #3 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE and #5 TWO COOKIE RULE. The first run trip will be key with #2 DANVILLE looking for a similar run and similar form cycle pattern wheeling back from the races in this current cycle including the B- TRAFFIC trip here last Sunday. 

#6 RAMESSES is logical as the favorite; looking at OptixPLOT their runstyle (Large Square) fits today’s race shape (Above) and also Above on Speed with Class as a lateral change. They appear well-intended coming back in this second start off the layoff with the key changes in terms of class, distance and rider with O. Hernandez taking over – positive ROI and key change with the quick turnaround, a near perfect record of horses in the money (no Red) at Hawthorne.  

Sticking with the Plot, #2 BLACK RUSSIAN could also finally land themselves in the right time, place and trip. While they will give up recency from the 199-day layoff the races from prior seasons stack up with today’s group and value should hold to counter the reservations. Stablemate #5 MONEY AGENT also should come back at the right level to compete and buried form. Their two starts at this level surface and distance from last April stand out as some of the higher numbers and has been able to run well fresh and show runstyle versatility – an X_FLOW upgrade closing out 2024 on 10/6.

#3 MALIBU FINALE has the edge over many wheeling back in a week for the second start and a game effort where they projected to move up returning from the juvenile campaign as a 3yo. While they did take a step forward and solid effort (B) on the day the race could be physically taxing. They raced every step of the 5f way and took contact late; the TROUBLE- did not appear to impact the outcome, however still physical as they wheel back in a week.

Some value concerns follow #1 WAYLLEN RICHARD one that should move up naturally with the class and circuit switch (Class Above) and numbers on par for this race. That said, they have shown the pattern of gate/SLOG issues and overall must step up where shorter odds appear in play.

#4 RAYFIELD has the benefit of live connections M. Murrill/E. Rodriguez in their corner coming back to Hawthorne. Last season they did catch a higher par for the majority of those races, though no real excuse in November though perhaps some upside with the slight FG improvement and near excuse (no grade) in the 2/17 race while WIDE and NO_PUSH with the open length and next out winner, Skip The Line with the field spaced out at the wire.

This is a solid and classy group with three stakes winners. #2 UNCASHED is the lone graded stakes winner with the Quik Call (G3) in a race taken off the turf at SAR in 2023 though has validated that form since. Returning this year they were able to show up with two big efforts pairing up speed figures and winning in January off the layoff. Perhaps some excuses followed with the timing, a two week turnaround for the Keener and gate issues (RUSH) following in both the February and March events. Again, they will find a quick turnaround though a different pattern of form cycle timing, closer to a second off starting a new cycle than wheeling back from a top. With that said, if they are not returning to a top effort here, those three recent efforts will not factor as a contender.

Stablemate #5 GOLDEN HORNET makes their return off the layoff with main rider J. Loveberry aboard – the pair three-for-four getting their picture taken with two of those at Hawthorne under similar par and condition to today’s race. Even looking to pick up where they left off in an abbreviated 2024 campaign following the 3/30 win.

With the L. Rivelli runners bringing in early speed that could make things tougher on trip for #1 FIVE O” SOMEWHERE with the rail giving back off the layoff perhaps forced to use for position and similar for #4 GUANARE as the stablemate GOLDEN HORNET and UNCASHED are unlikely to “duel” forcing those others to chase and push in order to compete and apply pace pressure.

While a scenario does exist in the case those horses are ridden to contest the early lead for #7 CORTESE to come from off the pace. Their form fits at this higher level keying off the races last season as well as what could be taken as a lateral move and flow upgrade from the FG races to compete here. The shorter 5.5f distance is likely shorter than their ideal (6f) and would require a lot of racing luck on the win end. 

#5 STRONGER TOGETHER might not appear to hold a pace advantage “on paper” though looking at the Plot a different picture to upgrade in this race. They, like others in this field will return off the layoff, though also a reclaim for trainer J. Campbell, a barn that had this runner in form last March at TAM including their most recent win.

While there is a scenario where STRONGER TOGETHER could make the lead and position themselves on the front end, that is not often their most effective runstyle and could still track forward with first run.

The lack of a true E or EP runstyle horse could see #2 SIXWILLBERICH gunning to the lead and one that broke their maiden on the lead last June at CD. That day they did take some pace pressure, though was still able to race Slow early and Average late. #3 SEMINOLE BEACH also one that could be intended for the lead as they return today from the layoff and route distance. Going back to last season, they showed early speed coming off the bench (3/31/24) at this level before fading and improved off the race, second off with the sprint cutback.

#1 DOUBLE THUNDER could also be looking for that forward position as they have shown tactical speed in the past. DOUBLE THUNDER found their peak form here last season though the long campaign started to catch up with them late and returning from a slight freshening here and with a rider change that could be a sign they still could be a race out.

#6 CODE RUNNER gives up recency and perhaps that is the prime reservation as a race horse they fit as a contender here with plenty of races throughout their career on par. They caught a similar par with the open $10k win last September though that effort second off and did catch a lower par winning in July – that race off a layoff though 81-days compared to the 155-day break here though was a similar type purse and Colon, today’s rider aboard.

Both #4 ICE AXE and #7 ROCKET HOTSHOT bring in recency and solid Hawthorne form; however in terms of class they could be tested in this spot, a higher par and purse from previous races where they have been able to compete and win. 

The change in class and circuit along with the race shape should find the right conditions for #9 VEGAS CONDO to move up and look for the maiden win. She held her form and speed figures out in California earlier last year just not quite on the class level, where the DROP was projected. Following that series of races, she has had the layoffs and placement with the turf sprint at DMR and less than ideal journey and trip as well as her day (physically + front wrap addition) back on 2/17 to suggest she can move up off that race and even running back to the figure would have her on today’s par as a contender.

As noted the early pace should be honest and in par to the pair of Rivelli fillies as #8 SPINNING GLORY showed early speed in both starts this season at Turfway and could even see #2 MARY MOONGLOW show early speed noting the June debut had TROUBLE_S before making a RUSH suggesting they were looking for the lead and with a sharp break could do so this time around.

Along the rail, #1 RACQUEL BLUE ran a big race on debut back on 12/22 at Oaklawn showing early speed, though in terms of class found herself in deep on the win end that day and during the season. The change in circuit should assist as well as the timing given a reset of 57-days coming back in here, those first three starts back-to-back perhaps lacking the crucial recovery.

#10 LA REYNITA also brings in upside off her races to date and coming back to the sprint/one turn distance. She showed run on debut; broke SLOG made a MOVE and visuals to suggest she can IMPROVE. The SLOG and TROUBLE_S carried in the second start with the move to the turf, though still showing run making a WIDE MOVE something tougher to see on just the running line and finishing position alone. The route last month while chasing a Fast early pace should provide key fitness coming back today and moving over to this circuit with M. Murrill back aboard.

#6 UNKEPT PROMISES is worth a mention wheeling right back for a second start noting she was very fractious in the GATE just 16-days ago and the connections already with a repeat winner (Spinning Pride) coming out of Turfway winning here at Hawthorne on Thursday for this owner could be intent all around (the two showing similar workout dates and times, perhaps working together?) and more to show in just a second career start.