Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 IDIOSYNCRASIES is logical as the favorite. They have consistently recorded the highest speed figures in this field and bring in tactical speed (to keep 8yo #2 ULTIMATE FIGHTER honest) with the ability to finish and pass horses something key for today’s race shape and shorter sprint distance. The pair of Morey runners came up short on the Thursday card, though a different pattern for that pair both returning from layoffs whereas #5 DYNO WAR brings in recency from Turfway Park keying off the $5k MCL level efforts for them. IDIOSYNCRASIES was much more competitive earning a B OptixGRADE on 2/12 compared to the C/ C+ OptixGRADES at the level for DYNO WAR coming into this race and lacking an edge off those races compared to the others in this field.

Sophomore #6 GONNA PICK DOMINIC brings in similar figures though not always as consistent. They should benefit returning to the one turn distance and change in class, likely bigger factors than the surface switch to dirt last month at Oaklawn. Prior to that, they held a class edge and competitive efforts at GP with a STRONG race for the level back in January and TROUBLE trip in February.

Fellow sophomore, #1 RUMBLING also brings in a subtle change in class showing up for a sophomore debut and grow up potential from the sophomore season. In the debut and the Futurity, they were often second tier to a stablemate and stands alone as the lone M. Boyce runner, the first starter for the barn this season.

Looking at the Plot, #4 GRAY MIKE as a Q4 Square has the potential to pick up horses late if consider vertical play. 

#3 CLASSIC TIRAMISU could sneak away on the board while holding upside and sneaky form into this race. She put in a strong CLOSE (after a SLOG) in the juvenile debut, the 12/26 race with some public support (8-1 ML, bet 5.87-1) in a full field. Following that effort the connections stepped up caught a next out and future graded stakes winner, Verity (Beaumont – G2) and visually CLASSIC TIRAMISU suggested STRETCH off those visuals as well as DROP while racing in the snow/WEATHER on 1/23. The following two starts might not look like much “on paper” though given a X_FLOW upgrade in both and in different ways from off the pace in February and part of a Fast early pace last month.

#5 CODE OF CONDUCT is the lone 4yo filly in the field and could present the maturity edge along with experience from a game B OptixGRADE debut effort last month. The race at FON, a sprint a $10k purse suggesting a slight step up with the stretch out here though confidence with the change after the debut run and in strong hands with O. Mojica aboard – a rare assignment for the barn with just three starts together all in 2023.

#2 REIMAGINE has the benefit of local Hawthorne experience going back to the races starting out last year as a juvenile. She moved forward race-to-race and at the time suggested STRETCH from the sprints and while in tougher at the FG did move up with the added ground, racing and age to transfer here.

The circuit and class change could be taken closer to a lateral move for #6 HEVEL coming out of the 3/28 $50k MCL TP event behind a dominant open length pacesetting winner and if the case still requires a move forward and could get attention from the public of basic handicapping angles.

#4 CHEVAL B also making a belated Hawthorne return starting out her career late in the season, the 9/4 turf sprint. She has exclusively raced on the turf, scratched when the races came off the grass back in January, though figure with the circuit switch to give a try on the main while if nothing else to keep fitness into the turf season starting up in a few weeks. Their stablemate, #1 GOUVERNATRICE has the main track experience from their December FG debut, a race scheduled for TURF and physically suited to grass. She might not have the same class to transfer as their stablemate and faster numbers required to compete though the 3/30 effort in light rain was credible making a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ after a SLOG at the shorter 5.5f distance. 

#6 RAGNOW holds the highest recorded figure on the dirt at the route distance doing back to the 12/19 race – a race just their second career start and still a juvenile to suggest they can repeat that effort. This should be as good a time to do so not in the second start off the claim and on this circuit stretching out from a WIDE trip at the shorter than their ideal going the 5f opening weekend.

They will meet some common rivals from the 3/27 MCL event where #2 BERKUS was favored likely on connections alone with the change in surface/distance, not quite handing the dirt or the shorter in running and while there are concerns back on the dirt paired with the inside draw the added ground is to their benefit. #5 WESTEROS has recorded figures that make them a main player from back in California, however, they have struggled since and no real excuses along the way where a massive turnaround is required and could be short for the connections and the public latching to the rider change as J. Loveberry moves from BERKUS to WESTEROS.

#4 MY LAST ESCAPADE from the 3/27 common race should also move forward with the added ground and second off with more competitive races at this similar MCL level, surface and distance from last season. With that said they also require a new top speed figure to match on the win end as a contender – and similar can be said for #3 BLACK RUSSIAN lighter on figures as a top contender.

Both #1 STORM BACK and #7 HOLDEN MICHAEL bring some upside into this race and exiting a common race back on 12/19 at TP. That race has held form and noted extreme SPACED race shape on the day. HOLDEN MICHAEL being one of the runners to move forward with a new top speed figure recorded on 2/14 and could see similar step up from STORM BACK one that was chasing the Very Fast early pace before losing ground and NO_PUSH late. 

The early pace here looks to be highly contentious early with those main players bookending the field as #1 CRYSTAL SNOW and #7 ANNIE’S HOPE are at their best on the lead and drawn where they can be forced to take that trip. #5 MISS SAIPAN also up in that first flight with legitimate early speed in her own right coming off the layoff and first start as a 4yo and at this $5k N2 level.

In that scenario, the race could fall apart late and set up for a horse from off-the-pace and not necessarily the “best” horse in the field but the right setup. #6 FOREVER BLESSED closed ground to break their maiden at the 5.5f distance at HS Indy and made up ground in the two sprints last year at Hawthorne tougher to see with the finishing positions though also un those races catching a much higher race par than today’s event. #4 SEQUAYA also can pop and find the right trip with speed figures from the prior Hawthorne seasons on par. She is a 9yo and needs that top coming off the layoff though perhaps getting in light with the barn change and setup trip is the belated key for her.

Both #2 BABA’S GAL and #3 THE LAST THRILL are lighter number wise though in that pace scenario outlined are not without an upset chance in playing for chaos. 

The race shape coded with the Sun Contention and higher 72 SpeedRate (OptixPLOT free every Hawthorne race day) suggests a set up from off the pace. That is still recognizing and respecting the Large Q1 Square for #3 GITA’S LAD one that still has the chance to take this field gate-to-wire though tougher form those trying to run with them early – likely #1 U S HONOUR NAP, #2 WHERE’S THE DAY GO and #4 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR to get caught in the mosh of the early pace.

From off the pace #6 FLYING SAMURAI can be upgraded on trip and in this second start off the layoff with the positive STRETCH out and PREP from the 4/3 race where she should be fit with a strong GALLOP+ and take off some of the winter coat (PRERACE-) as noted on the day.

#7 LAND MARK DEAL has often dealt with bad racing luck and no exception on 3/30 with a legitimate EX – EXCUSE less than ideal TACTIC- and TROUBLE impacting their trip – a rider change was projected and given with F. Reyes taking over here, a rider that paired up place finishes back in December at MNR.

#5 PLAIN OR PEANUT falls into that middle category on trip as they an show early speed perhaps their ideal trip though also effective from off the pace. For that to play out today effectively a lot of the decisions come down to jockey A. Bendezu and to factor on value for the horseplayer. 

While #4 MY LADY SLEW made a lot of sense opening week with their early speed, the race shape and the 5f distance, things change here in terms of race shape (downgrade) and value (none) returning as the expected favorite here and willing to take on with those factors in play today. Similar value concerns could follow #6 A REAL HERO with the 5.5f distance as she might prefer 6f though capable and can get there based on the Plot.

From that same Plot position and shape to upgrade both #2 AWESOME SUNDAY and #3 HEAVENLY HASH – horses that are further upgraded making their second start of the season and from the 3/27 common race. AWESOME SUNDAY should move up with the WIDE CLOSE trip and positive albeit slight STRETCH in distance; HEAVENLY HASH likely further under the radar with the finishing position though showed run in spots to earn a C+ OptixGRADE and overall PREP visuals.

As noted the contested early pace for MY LADY SLEW makes things also tougher on the win end as far as pace and trip for #5 DIXIE PENNY and #7 SMILE AT THE STORM those runners Q1/3 Circles. #1 JOLIE RULER is a tougher Plot read for today’s race shape overall and added factors coming off the layoff giving up recency to the others while also given the rail draw, something that could force to use early as that has been in play other times she has drawn the rail. 

Current class and speed figures present the edge #1 BATTLEOFLEXINGTON and #5 RUNWAY CHARLIE in those categories for this race. Looking at the Plot they can work out a trip though no handouts there as they look to contend with each other as well as chase projected pacesetter #5 RUNNINGFORCASH.

If there is a scenario where BATTLEOFLEXINGTON and RUNAWAY CHARLIE are beat, it could be on pace as part of the Fire Contention (moderate SpeedRate) and race shape to assist runners from off the pace.

The Large Q4 Square #2 ONORE could pick up horses and cand while lighter on speed figures, not be much in this group and brings in recency. They wheel back from a very game B effort three weeks ago in the MVR allowance - after losing their footing out of the gate (TROUBLE_S) and rider TACTIC- made TWO_MOVES up into TRAFFIC early and late closing ground on first run winner, those top two together and clear at the wire.

Trainer J. Berndt has the pair in this race where both could ultimately benefit from a start returning from a layoff though not far out of it on their best day. #6 CAUGHT OFF GUARD has been most effective over the grass though also when showing early speed and could get into that Fire Contention. #7 COMMISIONER OSCAR might be a little sneaky with dirt form while class is still a test. They will be tested to step up on the speed figures department though not out of the question returning as a four-year-old some upside from the juvenile and sophomore figures with grow up potential and maturity. 

The Plot is notable here with this field, a unique race shape with the Snowflake Contention (lighter Q1, not many E or EP types) paired with the higher SpeedRate. That scenario took my analysis to look through the past performance and Plot History for the runners in this field to find horses that have experience under today’s potential dynamic.

#10 GOLDEN STORM can be upgraded with today’s race shape, class relief from TP given a lower par here and following a favorable form cycle pattern. She is given a further Flow-upgrade making a WIDE RUSH into a Fast early pace on 3/5 playing a role in the outcome. She also holds sneaky form at Hawthorne from last season; the 4/13 race earned a figure on par while finishing off the board had the rail draw and in a higher level/purse N1 allowance group.

#5 PASTA SALAD RHONDA has been competitive and won under this Snowflake/SpeedRate combo however those more competitive efforts when on the turf. Certainly capable here though assigned favorite and some value concerns in that role when it comes to the win end.

#9 WILD TAPIT has competitive races with this dynamic and those races with speed figures on par. She finds a rider change and subtle change in class with the race par coming back from opening weekend when also uncharacteristically WARM and despite the running line did her best running after the wire with a strong GALLOP+ out.

Longshot #7 JOCELYN broke her maiden under today’s dynamic over this course and distance. Number wise that figure not as strong as others and on the lower end of par, though not impossible and holds fitness second off in what appeared to be a PREP two weeks ago. She might not appears as “strong” on the Plot in comparison to #4 HOT DAME the Q1 Square, though noted race shape and lack of recency while also returning from the layoff for a claiming tag – factors that play a role in the shape/position. 

Maidens open the day in a spot where there's a couple with speed to set things up for one to come from a bit back. I'm hoping that one is 6-GONNA PICK DOMENIC as he has been facing tougher to open his career and shortens up off a dirt route at Oaklawn in his last. He ran some respectable races while sprinting at Gulfstream and may be overlooked in here. 3-IDIOSYNCRASIES will be the one to beat as he has been right there in all four career races. He has speed and will likely be on the gas from the start. Let's see if he can clear Ultimate Fighter early or if he's hooked up in a pace battle. 5-DYNO WAR shortens up as he looks to rally late for Felix & Morey. He's been an every other start type of horse on his young career which means he should be sitting on a good race today.

Tough race as only a couple have gone two turns. Those with that experience will get my top looks as I'll give the nod to 4-CHEVAL B on top. She has been on the turf in all seven starts so the dirt could be the question but she worked a solid half here last week. She should be a slightly better price than Reimagine as she runs for the hot Lopez barn. 2-REIMAGINE has to be given a look as she comes in off four straight on the grass. She will need a little pace to chase as she should come running in the lane. 5-CODE OF CONDUCT could be the sleeper in this spot off a near miss at Fonner in her last. She faces a bit tougher for company in here but has gone two turns and is another likely to close ground late.

Maiden claimers in the third with no real standout in this race. Not too worried about the outside draw for 7-HOLDEN MICHAEL as he comes off a start at a mile against similar in New Orleans in his last. He is fit for this spot and may just need to sit a bit closer early in a race lacking pace. 4-MY LAST ESCAPADE showed speed while sprinting in his last and was a good second at a nice price. He has route experience, narrowly winning at this distance and may look to rate close at two turns. 5-WESTEROS comes out of the same race with My Last Escapade in his last as he chased before giving way in that race. He did show speed while going two turns at Oaklawn two back and may be positioned to inherit the early lead in here.

Looks like the speed in on the inside and outside in this spot. But neither of those horses necessarily need the front. Going to the slightly better price with 1-CRYSTAL SNOW on top as she has had her best success here at Hawthorne. She closed against better here last fall and has recently knocked on the door for her second career victory. Centeno is familiar with her and back aboard today. 7-ANNIE'S HOPE has speed on the outside as she makes her second start at this level. She broke her maiden against better and may be looking for a win and a claim in here. If the pace does hook up, maybe it sets things up for 3-THE LAST THRILL to close late. She's worked consistently toward her return and drops to the lowest level of her career.

He may have needed his last as I expect 3-GITA'S LAD to show speed in here and have much more left in the tank in the lane. He has posted 12 of his 13 career victories over this Hawthorne strip as Murrill has been riding very well to open the meet. 5-PLAIN OR PEANUT stalked and ran on late in his last as he may have needed that race off the layoff. He's another with a chance to improve as he figures to take action in here. 1-U S HONOUR NAP wanted to go early in his last but was wrangled back. I expect he is allowed to show a bit more early speed in here as he should be pressing Gita's Lad early on.

4-MY LADY SLEW posted a sharp effort in her last as she battled every step of the way, just missing to a game Be My Bestie. She catches a slightly shorter field in here and just needs to try to shake Smile at the Storm early. She's at her best a Hawthorne as we will see if the added 16th hurts or not. 6-A REAL HERO will be hoping the two pace horses duke it out upfront as she figures to rate and rally late. Her last two starts have been solid as she has posted a pair of runner-up efforts in her two starts at 5 1/2. 2-AWESOME SUNDAY will also hope for the pace to chase in here as she closed nicely in her last. The added distance should help her chances as her Hawthorne record is very solid.

There's not a ton of pace in this race as it looks like 4-RUNAWAY CHARLIE should be on or near the lead in here. He held his own while at a big price in new Orleans in his last and should have no issue going two turns. Let's see how much action he takes in here. 1-BATTLEOFLEXINGTON is going to take action as he is another that has been right there in recent starts. He's going to need some pace to chase but I wouldn't be surprised if he settles a bit closer with the rail draw. 7-COMMISSIONER OSCAR steps up for his first start of the meet as he has worked consistently toward his return. I like the recent mile work as the price should be right.

3-IDIOSYNCRASIES seems too logical. He ran well in all his starts. He’s shown the ability to run on the lead or to come from off the pace. The only knock might be that he never ran on dirt. His debut was on turf and he’s been on synthetic since. But he still looks like the one to beat. 5-DYNO WAR turns back in distance while adding blinkers. The track wasn’t too kind to closers on Thursday but expecting a fairer condition today. The pace will set up for a runner coming from off the pace. He has raced exclusively on synthetics so not sure how he’ll react to this surface but giving him the benefit of the doubt. 1-RUMBLING finished far back in all his races but all were against much tougher. Drops into maiden claimers for the first time. Gets first Lasix. Improvement is expected.

One of the more interesting things about this race is that all the horses have been racing so all should be dead fit. 6-HEVEL didn’t show much apparent speed in her lone start but she could find herself on the lead in this spot. Stretches out for her second start and also gets first Lasix, both useful categories for her trainer. 4-CHEVAL B has only raced on turf so you don’t know how she’ll handle dirt but she has a lot of route experience and has shown that she can handle the distance. 7-ROSE’S WISH could be the main competition for the front end. She’s had more success than her rivals with three second-place finishes in her last five starts. She’s never been around two turns but she has shown pretty good finish in some of her races.

6-RAGNOW stretches out. He ran out of gas in his local debut while sprinting but he made a good middle move to reach contention. Think he’s better going long and his trainer does well with runners stretching out. Both the barn and his rider are off to a hot start at the meet. Slim pick in a wide-open race. 4-MY LAST ESCAPADE might be the best of these. He’s coming off a good second sprinting but he also had a pair of seconds at this distance here last year. It could be graduation day. 1-STORM BACK could be sent right to the lead. He’s adding blinkers, getting first Lasix, and stretching out. Like his works coming into this race. May never look back. 

7-ANNIE’S HOPE finished second when dropped to this level for last. That race was at Turfway and it was around two turns but she has always had a good turn of early foot. Think they’ll have to catch her. 1-CRYSTAL SNOW might not be as quick as some in here but she does have decent speed and she has been racing at Turfway so she should be totally fit for this contest. 5-MISS SAIPAN drops to her lowest level ever. She didn’t show much versus allowance company in her first start after getting claimed by this barn. Not crazy about her limited slow workouts coming into this race but, at this level, she deserves another look. 

3-GITA’S LAD was favored in his first start of the meet and he did display good early speed but he had been off since May and obviously needed the race. Meets a bit easier and does it with a race under his belt. Can make amends. 2-WHERE’D THE DAY GO beat only one in his first start of the meet. However, his barn wins with about a 40% rate with runners making their second starts off layoffs. Could be poises to surprise. 5-PLAIN OR PEANUT finished a couple lengths ahead of top choice in last. Like that rival, he needed the start. He’s unlikely to be close early but he might finish with plenty of run and get by them all.

There appears to be a lot of speed in this race. If the field stays intact, it could set things up for a closer. 6-A REAL HERO might prove to be the one. She tuned up with a good third-place finish at Turfway a month ago after finishing second at Mahoning in her final start of 2024. I’m a little concerned that this race could be a bit short for her but am confident she’ll be coming on late. Could get up in time. 4-MY LADY SLEW, 5-DIXIE PENNY, and 7-SMILE AT THE STORM all like the front end. The track condition on Thursday, especially in the early races, seemed to favor speed runners. If that condition remains, this trio could duke it out from start to finish.

1-BATTLE OF LEXINGTON could hold the edge. He is in from New Orleans where he finished second in his last two races. He races for world-class connections and he usually finishes his races with authority. Slim pick. 4-RUNAWAY CHARLIE mostly raced on turf or synthetic but he finished a distant third at the Fair Grounds in last while making his dirt debut and his first start for this barn. He probably owns better early speed than top choice but don’t think he’s as quick as some others in this race. Guessing he’ll be tracking the early pace. Trainer Joel Berndt started two on Thursday and they both won. His two entrants in this race, 6-CAUGHT OFF GUARD and 7-COMMISSIONAIRE OSCAR are both Minnesota breds that prefer turf but it would be a mistake to ignore anything that this barn starts.

Think 4-HOT DAME has a chance to wire the field. Definitely worried about lack of conditioning with only two short workouts but she looks like the only speed in the field and she might just coast along on an unchallenged lead. Not in love with 5-PASTA SALAD RHONDA, she’s been primarily a turf horse, but she does have a win on the dirt, she races for very sharp connections, and she’s dropping to her lowest level ever. 1-NO NANETTE NO could fit with these. It’s been a long time since she showed much but her barn and rider are off to red-hot starts. This mare could awaken in this very easy field.