Handicapper Tips & Picks

To start off the card and while respecting #6 GOOD YEGG as one that has consistently run the highest speed figures and a threat on that front, inclination to lean on recency and subtle changes in class for the runners already with a start this season:

#1 ALADANTE is likely to be over looked of the group. They ran a competitive figure on debut – a tougher spot debuting late last season (closing weeks) on the turf with an X_WIDE trip and higher race par. A higher race par followed the two TP starts closing out 2024 including a “trip” in December. They returned off the layoff here just over a week ago upgraded from the MSW effort up making a RUSH into a Very Fast early pace and visually one that appears better suited to today’s ONE_TURN distance.

#5 OLIVERIO following a similar path from 4/6 where they also made a RUSH into the Very Fast early pace chased WIDE on the pace and to their credit staying on for 4^th through the Very Fast late pace. E. Lopez already used the route-to-sprint move going back to the second start to suggest intent for a move forward here.  

#3 TEAM TROY has little excuse on 3/27 though perhaps they did not appreciate the shorter distance and rail draw while taking on older for the firs time. This is not the class change like other coming back from that event, a lateral move though was competitive at a higher par/purse this season from the TP starts and higher recorded figures in those efforts to show up and compete here.

In terms of the layoff #4 MARK MY MEMORY can improve of the two recorded figures last year as a juvenile. Trainer J. Berndt has a solid record with long layoff return maidens at Hawthorne (25% win, 62% ITM, positive $.56 ROI) including last week with Papa’s Nico Boy (the two share a similar half mile move from 4/3) picking up their maiden win. F. Reyes has the call, does not often ride for this barn though did ride last year and picked up a 2024 season win with My Crazy Neighbor. 

The C. Winebaugh pair return to Hawthorne with live riders for the barn. The pair land here under similar conditions they have been running in down at GP however less “longshot” making the circuit switch here. #1 LITTLE STEVEN is preferred (Plot) with form on the HAW main track while last season come up without a win, though turned in “winning/B” efforts while settling for the minors – most of the season running in the higher $25k N2 claiming events. This will be the first start for them back on the dirt and the two turn distance since the 9/29 race with the WIDE trip (Very Fast early/late) while also WARM in that place result.

#2 MOONRISE DRIVE will make their first start on the dirt and while competitive under similar N2 events at GP last season this year with higher figures had not quite found that form this season though to their credit showing some figure improvement off the layoff. In terms of trip, they prefer to track just off the pace and will have to show they have the same turn of foot on the dirt; though if so, should have some pace to run at with the higher 50 SpeedRate. They could end up higher of the two with the surface switch while current higher figures from the most recent race including a common race on 3/8 both “longshots” MOONRISE DRIVE (102-1) almost double LITTLE STEVEN (57-1) on the day.

The higher SpeedRate can move up #4 DAPPER DUDE to run on late, though based on the ML does not appear to hold price compensation in that closing role and while capable on the dirt they prefer TURF. The lack of value also follows #3 GRAND ILLUSION with a rise from the MCL win back in December giving up recency while taking on winners for the first time. 

#1 LA CLASICA turned in a solid figure and effort staying on as the BOS (after a RUSH) on debut with the place finish and upgraded with the change in class and extreme SPACED race shape on 3/13. They should move up naturally here and early speed from the inside while getting in light and perhaps the best opportunity for apprentice, V. Esquivel to pick up that first win.

The lone FTS #2 YAY YAY’S DREAM shows up with steady local works and in capable hands first out. The barn since 12/2019 has just one debut winner in 13 starts  and that runner was bet down from the 6-1 ML to the 2.3-1 favorite something to follow in terms of intent today.

The T. Tracy  barn also represented with #5 CRÈME DE CASSIS one that has recorded some of the higher figures in the field consistently and shown early speed. That early speed has followed a pattern of gate issues (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and looking at the Plot, could have her hands full with that trip the Q1 edge to LA CLASICA.

#3 LIONS LAW in that pace scenario should be looking for first run. She will find a subtle change in class the first time at the MCL level on the dirt the two races in MCL company on the turf,  though one t her credit has the surface distance experience, the race under her belt and appears to have some move forward potential as a July foal with maturity required overall and now in the second start of the 4yo campaign. 

It appears the connections of #1 CHRISTMAS PRESENT have been waiting for a 6f race (scratch 4/3 at 5f) and based on prior form and figures should be competitive in here. They will give up recency and holding the rail draw, things they have overcome in the past though rarely in the assigned role as the favorite, something they have not often held in their career. Class wise this is a subtle change for them to support on that front, however others find a similar change, and this is an overall competitive event.

#2 CARL G brings in upside for the second start of the season and distance change as well. They move up with those factors for this race and form from the 3/27 effort breaking SLOG though despite the running line and finishing position put in a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+.

#3 CHAMPAGNE MIKE also in a second start of the season, finding close to a lateral move on class though perhaps a tactical change. They broke on top then surrendered the lead unable to get back in front and one that seems to need a more assertive rude. #4 DRAGON DREW was given an assertive ride forced to RUSH and contest the pace. They are not a need the lead type and can rate and pass even on the dirt going back to prior Hawthorne seasons and limited main track races.

#5 DEVILS RED could drift from the ML past on the recent finishing positions and would need to offer some value to play on that current form. Their prior class and speed figures fit including dirt sprint form and coming back today finds a softer race par for the first time since last season to move up on that front.

#6 UNCAPTURED PULSE also could get lost on the board and present value in this field. They return to make their second start off the layoff, fits from chasing a honest pace while WIDE on 4/3 at a distance shorten than their ideal 6f, the distance today. They fit on speed figures and class and upside with the timing all around for this barn and since the claim late last season. #7 SON OF GRACE certainly deserving of the longshot role in this field though while they are valid in that role on the win end, with recency not out of it for a share. 

Like Race 4, this is a highly competitive event with a group of race mares that know how to win races. This starts with the #1 GO STORMIN GIRL in her second start of the season and slight addition of ground to move up and suited to today’s race shape (Plot) to compete. With that said, looking at the Plot, she finds some serious challengers and other “Squares” where GO STORMIN GIRL must bring her A game.

#3 PRANCIPANTS another contender and one that back in 2023 went on a tear at Hawthorne 5 wins at multiple class, surface and distance while only finishing out of the money once out of the 11 starts. In terms of current form, she will need to move up off the 4/2 effort though had a subtle trip – restless in the GATE, poor track conditions (WEATHER) making a RUSH into an honest pace. She moves to a Q1 here both Standard and Surface/Distance for the first time since that 2023 campaign.

#7 WRITTEN CONSENT also a strong Square and while she has had most of her success from that position she also has had an inside post to save ground. In this case, she could find the right time and place, tracking outside that first flight and jump with first run. She brings in current form and from the two recent WEATHER impacted races even with the Fast track on 3/30 still raced in the rain WIDE with a strong headwind on the day.

The slight change in class, timing and distance can upgrade both #4 APRIL’S GEM (PREP, GALLOP+) from the 3/27 start along with rider change and subtle change in race dynamic from that event; #6 PALACE MAGIC also from the 3/30 event in the second start off the layoff. She ultimately might want 6f (STRETCH) though showed run in the return 3/30 common race with the noted WEATHER conditions and behind open length pacesetting and next out winner, Lady Helena. 

The class edge for this race looks to fall and the mares shipping in from TP and the higher OC$25k N1 conditions. While both #4 LITTLE DIXIE and #5 EL KOWN exit those identical conditions, the race #5 EL KOWN returns from on 3/6 being the strong par of the two events and the edge in overall effort comparing a C+ to the C OptixGRADE outside of overall speed figures as a separator. In terms of race shape, both can work out a trip in this field, as Squares with the higher 72 SpeedRate in play.

The other Square, #7 MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN could sit as an alternative and should present the higher odds of the trio. MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN was supported at the windows in the return two weeks ago and while no match for their stablemate winner, Raceday Attire, MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN showed her mate MOVE and continued to GALLOP+ out after the wire and from prior race history has improved second off and with numbers on par for this course and route distance. 

#1 ICE AXE could be overlooked off the recent running line and finishing position. Not only should they find the change in class favorable, but also the timing a slight regression from the win off the layoff back in February at MVR and also with the trip earlier this month not ideal on handing (TACTIC-) with overall visuals (PREP) to suggest they have more to show.

#2 ALVIN is a longshot when looking at speed figures, numbers on the lower end of par and compared to today’s rivals. With that said, they have the edge in recency moving forward race to race along with a sneaky CLOSE two weeks ago. Today’s race shape is unique with the Sun and Lower SpeedRate, a similar race shape when ALVIN pulled off the 27-1 upset (albeit 6f sprint) last year.

#3 LINE TO GAIN turned in a competitive B- race for the level last month and back under similar conditions should hold form at the least. Perhaps trip is the one thing to consider as they should get public attention for the connections and off the recent result, a lack of edge when it comes down to race shape looking at today’s Plot.

#4 REGIMENTAL won cleared the N2 condition in Jan at the FG off a similar type of freshening and speed figure along with trip and M. Murrill aboard that could translate to a winning effort here. The timing is notable as following the 1/5 win they regressed figure wise and a pattern for this horse looking over prior efforts where they can pop with a top number, though struggle to pair efforts.

#5 MYSTIFIER moved to this circuit looking for some class relief to get back on track and perhaps that intent still holds in the second start of the season. While upside with the change could have been projected the board was not as willing to make that call, cold on tote and less fancied than stablemate and current rival LINE TO GAIN on the day. MYSTIFIER also was WARM something that has been noted in the past and when WARM does not often show their best and a physical change here could be a positive.

#6 SLAVA UKRAINI needs an aggressive ride and in today’s race shape with the lack of an E runner and one of two EP types, S. Gonzalez must be assertive from the jump. When assertive they are at their most competitive and while winless since the summer of 2023, there have been some game front end efforts in between and often races last season under a higher conditions.

#7 ANCIENT MAN even on their very best day number wise they are lighter than the top efforts from their rivals in here. Though will noted their career best figure was off a similar pattern, third off last season and their current form and strong GALLOP+ from the 4/3 start to suggest they can run their peak effort here.

#8 ELECTRIC CHARGE comes in comes in giving up recency in their first start back off the layoff. This is the first start back form the long layoff every in their career – a career that started in December 2022 and consistent since with just a pair of slight two month break races in between. They started to improve after the maiden win with the efforts last year though in addition to giving up recency they will find a slightly higher par then the 10/26 N3 race closing out 2024 at FAN, despite recording a new top that day with the place result.