Handicapper Tips & Picks

The pace of this race should impact the results as many return in this spot perhaps with their less than ideal  surface with giving up recency in the case of many. In terms of the early pace, #3 CAT ATTACK should be out in front from the jump, upgraded with the change in circuit/class (DROP)and from the 2/21 trip racing with a WIDE RUSH X_BIAS. With her game best on the lead she should take that approach and if allowed to clear is a main threat though if as projected on the Plot, pace pressure from #2 ARDIS even #5 UNION DOLLY capable to running closer to the pace with the outside post and distance change she could find hurdles.

#4 IZZY’S MONSTER could land the ideal trip in that case coming back from the layoff though back on the Hawthorne main track where she has been effective and under a similar par/purse where she has been competitive as well.

In terms of class and circuit switch, #1 JUNGLE CAT fits all around. They can be further upgraded from the trip back on 3/8 with subtle SAVED TROUBLE- and two of the three runners that came back won their next start. With the noted trip last out and the inside here, that could come into play one that has yet to run on the dirt in their career and mildly protected today for $25k could have the change to show they can run on the dirt or a good race while waiting for a turf race in the coming weeks. 

Of the recent maiden winners, #3 VIA DEL CORSO is preferred to #6 MISSISSIPPI MAN overall and perhaps slightly higher of the two at post time. VIA DEL CORSO has the benefit of local experience, a work to keep up conditioning between races and still on three weeks from the debut to suggest they came out of the race well and even could hold a move forward. They showed versatility with the trip while racing in the rain. MISSISSIPPI MAN was dominant (B+) however flow aided with the Very Slow early and late pace while assisting their CLOSE/finish on the day. The race shape lacked a change in running order and today’s class par/purse is a rise.

In terms of the two M. Boyce runners as both #4 TAKEITAWAY and #5 JOURNEY showed run last year and returning from the layoff with similar works to prepare for this race. TAKEITAWAY given the edge just assessing the Futurity effort closing out 2024 though coming back today and preparation for the first start of the year would not be “against” either.

Number wise the two Boyce IL-bred runners were recording speed figures in their juvenile series not far off or and in line with the two sophomores #1 GOOD TO BE PRINCE and #2 CARAMBASO returning here and from the 4/3 common race, a day with a stretch headwind both with TROUBLE_S and the dominant winner, Spinning Pride from mid-pack to win by open lengths. 

#6 WE MISS ARLINGTON sneaks in as a three time winner with one of the those wins last year, the dominant (B+) $5k N2L not counting towards today’s eligibility. That provides a slight edge as does class finding class relief from a higher par OC event on 4/7 with a trip to upgrade as they return here. They had TROUBLE_S stumbling a few  strides out of the gate making mild contact (TROUBLE-) with a rival in the process of recovery and from there made a MOVE a strong GALLOP+ and overall intent might not have been to them with stablemate winner, Supremely, fancied of the two on the day. That is where first call rider, M. Murrill landed and notable taking over here on WE MISS ARLINGTON.

O. Hernandez lands with the other E. Rodriguez runner, #5 GENERAL ISSUE one that returns under similar conditions from the 3/30 race. They showed run with subtle adversity (SHUFFLE, MOVE, WIDE) behind their former stablemate and today’s rival #3 ALL ABOUT TONITE, the front running LONE winner. GENERAL ISSUE presents upside and a move forward all around, though requires a top effort and trip once again at today’s perhaps shorter than their ideal 5.5f distance.

In terms of ALL ABOUT TONITE there is a scenario where they can get clear on the lead looking at the Standard Plot, however, looks to have company on Surface/Distance another upgrade for WE MISS ARLINGTON as a Q1 Square.

Keeping to the Plot, that position is key to get the jump on prime rivals  #1 ASYMMETRIC one that has above and beyond the back numbers and class that would make them a walkover in this group returning to those efforts where their current form also competitive, however not that massive edge; #2 CITY OF CLOUDS returning from a strong CLOSE in the 3/30 common race and should appreciate the slight addition of ground along with the race under their belt.

#7 EL MUCHO takes the step up in class and the right move coming off a win and overall a progressive type. While this is a rise in class, going back to their earlier days they were given a similar test both on class starting out their career in statebred stakes company and breaking their maiden at the 5.5f distance at Hawthorne in MSW company and holding their own against a tough CD group in the sophomore season. The race that keyed off the 4/3 selection was the BTL effort going back to March 2024 at the $25k N2 level. 

#3 SOUL COAXING is back at Hawthorne and where he fits from prior seasons. The connections return from the layoff though not back with a drop, still running for the higher $25k claiming tag where they have been competitive over the previous season. Their runstyle along with D. Cohen fits today’s shape and drawn well to work that trip with first run. The two inside runners with  #1 MORE THAN DESTINY stretching out and #2 LAVENDER EARL following a NO_PUSH on 4/3 returning from the layoff that day should return to their front running ways; and that pair joined by #6 CONI’S COUP coming off the layoff and with natural early speed their recent wins when given LONE trips.

The trip and runstyle for SOUL COAXING is similar to the preferred run of #4 READTHECLIFFNOTES and #5 CATEGORY TEN though upgraded in the timing of this race and with the draw. The timing and post could force CATEGORY TEN to run with the first flight a scenario that does not impact the trip for SOUL COAXING and would further assist that of READTHECLIFFNOTES (Standard and Surface/Distance Square) to compete. The Plot position and shape is notable for #7 GLOBAL EMPIRE – a position that could be tougher to win with though one that could be key for a share and to include in the vertical play. 

Both of the C. Block runners can be upgraded in this spot: #2 MONDOGETSBUCKETS held strong figures from the sophomore season against a higher par/purse at CD that presented a class/figure edge over the group of experience runners three weeks ago and ran a “winning/B” race noting a compromised TROUBLES+/SLOG making an early WIDE MOVE and picked up by a well-prepared Via Del Corso (running earlier on the card) on debut for L. Rivelli.

#3 TAUNTING presents upside returning as a sophomore and from the two races last season catching a live pair of DiVito runners in Baby Boat on debut and seasoned Royal Bro on the turf and their stablemate Executor closing out 2024. The timing for TAUNTING also notable debuting later in the Hawthorne season and perhaps one that needed more time to develop and could hold that projection here as a sophomore and one that has been consistently training this year and off the two races to date suggesting they have more to show and yet to see their best.   

As far as the other 4yo runners in this field: the change in class can be taken as a lateral move for #4 MELLIFLUOUS showing up on this circuit from their recent MCL races though with that said, and lacking an edge on that front must find more on the win end though a minor not out of the question especially with the return to the one turn distance; #6 BRODY makes a belated return and overall consistent type that might prefer TURF (similar for #5 T C GOLD) though off the two KEE main track races last year those figure stack up with today par. They closed out the 2024 season here at Hawthorne on the turf, earning a B- OptixGRADE despite finishing of the board as they raced WIDE X_BIAS.  

With the first time starters #1 RODAVLAS appears well-prepared off the works; a consistent pattern with the timing and progression of distance showing a mix of speed and stamina. #8 STEELY EYE also with consistency in the 2025 pattern following some works last year. The return series topped with the two gate half mile moves, nothing further recorded in distance and while the barn is capable with FTS overall, here at Hawthorne a smaller sample of 13 with just one winner and one show the winner Fit and Famous a 3yo filly was favored (bet down from 6-1 ML) and something to follow on the board here.

#9 HIGH PROBABILITY is not a true FTS though could almost be taken as such with the belated second start, the barn change and from the debut where they made a mess of the break part of a chain reaction of contact (TROUBLES+) and forced a WIDE RUSH into the duel/FTQ.   

#5 CODE RUNNER has a chance to find the right trip and race shape to win with the higher 43 SpeedRate positioned on Standard as the lone runners not on the left of the y-axis or above the ParLine - a subtle off-the-pace, pace advantage. In addition to race shape/pace, they bring in current form for this second start off the layoff, upgraded from the 4/6 start earning a B- OptixGRADE making a MOVE through TRAFFIC and against the Very Slow early and late race dynamic to present a further upgrade here.

#4 CHAOS REIGNS moves up with the change in circuit, race par and even form, form that might appear “off” when looking at the running lines and finishing positions. That is not necessarily the case, a flow upgrade from each of the three Oaklawn starts (all contested on off-tracks) especially the two most recent starts as part of the Very Fast early pace. As shown on Surface/Distance they present an edge on that front to take the lead and their presence in this race making things tougher on the win end for #1 STRONGER TOGETHER, #2 NILES CHANNEL and even #6 CONTRABANDISTA and #7 JET FLIGHT.

#3 MCMONEY as a four-time winner fits this condition perfectly on timing and returning on this circuit where they fit as a contender. The placement from prior Hawthorne seasons had them played in allowance company (juvenile/sophomore) and last year in the higher claiming level. The combination of class and distance created hurdles on the win end, though kept in races moved to the main track they moved up with the change in race par and moves up with the change in race par from their races this year.  

#7 FAST N HAPPY a Square both on Standard and Surface/Distance and upgraded with the change in class (and rider) making their second start of the meet. They also follow and  “every other” pattern to cycle back to a top figure and effort. In terms of the trip two weeks ago while also running in a higher race par broke in a tangle (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and chased WIDE all factors playing a role in outcome.

The “every other” pattern is noted for #1 HONOR HIS HALF one that has a strong Plot position though one that was on the upswing of the pattern three weeks ago and returns today with a higher par, something that could create vulnerabilities on the win end.

#5 QUEEN ANNA T could be upgraded from their Plot position for this race noting the recent trips and timing while returning on this circuit. She was able to find the right tracking trip off the layoff in February to clear the N2 condition though following that race given a legitimate EX – EXCUSE with the TACTIC- and in running TROUBLE ultimately NO_PUSH late; that playing a role in the Circle overall. As far as the race three weeks ago (3/30) she might have lost her race restless in the GATE breaking SLOG as a result and never appeared comfortable tracking SAVED behind horses with KICKBACK- impacting her race on the day. She moves just slightly outside in terms of post and back with J. Loveberry to improve on overall trip and outcome.  

#2 LITTLE SASS also could have some excuses built into her Plot position and shape given the trips from last year and placement overall all. She has been able to fire fresh and win for these connections, connections that have sent out live runners this meet – tough to dismiss that trend.

The race shape with the Sun Contention and honest 38 SpeedRate can assist runners from off the pace: #4 LUNARCHY has the edge in recency over the returning #3 FREEDOM ATTACK while looking at the Plot and the two in a similar position and runners that stack up with similar form and figures for today’s class level.  

Two in here with speed in Ardis and Cat Attack. If they both hook up, it could set things up for 4-IZZY'S MONSTER to rate just off the pace and take over in the lane. The horse loves this Hawthorne strip and has put in a good string of drills toward the return. I expect she's sharp at first asking. 3-CAT ATTACK has done much of her best running on the turf, but she posted some main track races last spring that were sharp as well. She has speed, but will need to avoid hooking up with Ardis early as she gets Centeno aboard today. With Centeno riding Cat Attack, that shifts her regular rider, Julio Felix, over to 2-ARDIS in this spot. Ardis steps up off the claim in here as she has speed. With the inside draw I expect she is sent as we will see if Cat Attack heads out with her early.

A solid field of three-year-olds in the second as there's a good amount of pace in here. While he broke his maiden in his career debut on the front end, I expect 6-MISSISSIPPI MAN to actually rate just behind the pace in here and look to run on in the lane. He drew clear after setting soft fractions in his debut as has worked well since that start. 3-VIA DEL CORSO was game in victory in his first start on opening weekend as he stalked and pounced late. The added eighth could benefit him here as he's another that figures to rally behind a heated pace. 2-CARAMBASO showed speed at this level in his first start of the meet as he battled into the lane before giving way. We will see if he is sent away again early in here and if he can clear the lead.

He's 10 years old, and he's still awesome as 4-READTHECLIFFNOTES makes his first start of 2025. He's as game as a racehorse comes, finding the money in 19 of 27 Hawthorne starts. He has tactical speed and with some others likely to show some pace in here, he figures to rally in the lane. 5-CATEGORY TEN is another that has been fantastic at Hawthorne, finding the board in nine of 10 Hawthorne starts. He should be sitting a bit closer early on and figures to welcome the return to the Hawthorne dirt. 3-SOUL COAXING will likely be rating mid-pack early and closing some ground in the lane. His last two victories have come with Cohen in the saddle and both from stalking positions. Expect him to contend much of the way.

A solid maiden field in the fifth as a bridge race, ending the early P4 and P5 and a part of all late Pick wagers. The likely favorite and one to beat is 2-MONDOGETSBUCKETS as he comes off a near miss in his first start of the meet. If Via Del Corso runs well against winners in race 2 on this card, that will flatter the chances of this runner. The added distance should help and I expect there's enough pace to chase. 9-HIGH PROBABILITY could be a sleeper in this spot as he makes his first start as a three-year-old today. He took a ton of action in his debut, being sent away as the even money choice. He showed speed before tiring in that spot. He comes into this race with Lasix and a nice string of drills as he figures to be sent for position from the outside draw. 8-STEELY EYE also gets Lasix in here, this time for his debut as Loveberry take the call for Tanner Tracy. His recent works show he's primed for a big effort as I look forward to seeing how he looks visually in the paddock prior to the race.

2-NILES CHANNEL ran a big race in his first start of the meet, just missing as he battled near the front and was run down late. There was no early pace in that event, but things look much different in here as he figures to rate in the second flight from the inside draw and run on in the lane. 5-CODE RUNNER ran well in his last, facing starter company in that spot. He is another that will benefit from some early pace to chase as he should be closing quickest of all late. 1-STRONGER TOGETHER was game in that same race as Code Runner last out as he set the early fractions and battled the entire way. There's a couple of others in here with the potential to challenge early but he figures to have to go from the rail draw.

In a race that doesn't have much pace, 1-HONOR HIS HALF looks to be in full control from start to finish with the rail draw. She ran a game race at this level in her last, battling to the wire. Today I don't expect she is challenged as she could relax early while going the added 16th. 5-QUEEN ANNA T may be the closest to Honor His Half early as she comes out of the same race in her last. She is one that will welcome the added distance as she figures to pick off horses in the lane. 3-FREEDOM ATTACK makes her first start of 2025 as she has just the one work toward the return. We may see her in the second flight early as she looks to rally in the stretch.

4-IZZY’S MONSTER looks strong in many categories. She has speed if she needs it but she’s just as adept when coming off the pace and that makes her the choice with all the speed in this race. She loves this track, she thrives at the distance, she’s been training well for months, and her speed figures suggest she’s the fastest of these, on dirt, despite meeting easier most of her career. 3-CAT ATTACK might hold the advantage in the speed department. Ignore her dismal race at Turfway, we know she’s better than that. Although she is a turf specialist, she has shown some turf ability. Might lead throughout. 2-ARDIS will contest the lead. She was claimed from her final start of 2024. Her recent drills have been sufficient. Should never be far back.

Despite making only one start, have to give 6-MISSISSIPPI MAN the nod. He was a ridden-out maiden winner in New Orleans, while generating a speed figure higher than any attained by any of his rivals. He showed, in that lone start, that he wouldn’t wilt under pressure. Might be able to hold off the rest of the speed in this one. 3-VIA DEL CORSO, the other recent maiden winner, won by only a nose in his lone start but unlike top choice, he came on late to snatch victory. That race was at five furlongs but the six-furlong distance of this race could suit him far better. 4-TAKEITAWAY, one of the two S D Brille Ltd homebreds, finished second in the Futurity at Fairmount in his last start, beating Journey, his stablemate, by five lengths. Both are first Lasix today, which can make considerable difference.

3-ALL ABOUT TONITE wired the field at this level in last after putting away a brief early challenge. He got claimed from that race but moved from one sharp barn to another. Doesn’t seem likely to face much early competition. Can win right back. 6-WE MISS ARLINGTON drops. He was a non-threatening fourth in his first start of the meet but could be more of a factor at this level. 1-ASYMMETRIC might show some late run. He scored in his last at Will Rogers Downs and will be meeting tougher here but he has had some past success with runners better than these.

Not sure if he has anything left but 10-year-old 4-READTHECLIFFNOTES might be racing at his lowest level ever. He won 13 of 40 races in his career, 10 of 23 on this racetrack. This multiple stakes winner has been equally adept on and off the pace. Was limited in starts last year and has limited drills coming into his first race of the year but fully expect him to give a good account of himself. 6-CONI’S COUP likes the front end and he’s another that has been good on this track and at this distance. He’s been off since September but his recent drills should be sufficient. Trust this barn to have him ready. 5-CATEGORY TEN was sharp early last year but seemed to tail off late. Didn’t like his first couple races this year but those starts were on synthetics and he never had much luck on that surface. Could awaken with the move back to dirt. 7-GLOBAL EMPIRE can’t be ignored. He won his final two races last year, beating starter company, and he’s been training very well for his return to racing.

2-MONDOGETSBUCKETS seems most likely. He was favored in last, his first start since June and his first on this track, but came up just a neck short. However, his barn wins with over 30% of runners making their second starts after long layoffs. Guessing he’ll graduate at a short price. 8-STEELY EYE is worth a look. He might be only prepping for races at Prairie Meadows since he’s an Iowa bred but he has been training well. Heard rumors that he’s a runner. 9-HIGH PROBABILITY might be another worth watching. He showed good speed but tired for the Rivelli barn last year in his lone start. Switched barn since and has posted some sharp drills here, Fairmount and in Nebraska since then. Gets first Lasix. Maybe

Tough little race. This looks like a pretty well-matched field. 4-CHAOS REIGNS might hold a slight edge. He’s shipping back from Oaklawn. His three races there this year were all against better and all were contested on off tracks. He fared far better in his three previous races here, with a win and two thirds. Think they’ll have to catch him. 3-MCMONEY makes his first start in three months but good recent works for a sharp layoff barn will have him ready. He’s going to be coming from off the pace and the track hasn’t been too favorable to late runners so far this meet but he really doesn’t lay far back. He could swoop to take it. 1-STRONGER TOGETHER doesn’t seem quite as quick as top choice but he does own pretty good speed and he does fade that badly. It’s possible that he’ll track top pick all the way around but it’s also possible that he’ll take over in the stretch if Chaos Reigns pulls another fade job.

7-FAST N HAPPY could be the best with the drop in class. She was in too deep in her first start of the meet but had been in pretty good form prior. Even runner could be a major factor in any pace scenario. 1-HONOR HIS HALF doesn’t hold a big speed advantage but you have to respect that she also doesn’t back down from a challenge. She could come out on top of a speed duel and still hold off any late runners. 5-QUEEN ANNA T won her first start of the year but has shown little since. However, she races for Rivelli with Loveberry in the irons. It would be foolhardy to not at least give her another look.