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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Wed April 23rd, 2025

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Emily's Analysis

Keeneland Race 1

Post Time 12:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 HELEN'S LITTLE SIS brings in buried form (TROUBLE, GALLOP+ on 3/29 OP) along with a class and speed figures edge for this race. She showed progression last season and in terms of the two turn distance, she had adversity in trip along with flow-upgrade from both starts. 

In contrast and while #2 PULA is capable here her better efforts and those races on par were both flow-aided. 

Keeneland Race 3

Post Time 1:04 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 SPURGEON takes the class drop and could be the right move as they have shown run, more than it might appear from the recent running lines and finishing position, though has yet to move up on numbers and required for the higher MSW allowance class. 

#8 STRATEGIC FORCE also takes the class DROP, the right move based on their visuals. They have shown run from the CLOSE on debut while racing on the dirt and TROUBLE_S on the turf in Feb at the FG, a race with the top three together at the wire. 

Keeneland Race 5

Post Time 2:08 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This is a tough race without a standout and a tricky pace scenario that could turn into a riders race. #1 CORMAN brings upside with the change in class, first time racing at the claiming level, a change from the others in this field. They will be tested back on the dirt and extended sprint distance, though along with prior progression from the previous form cycle, should hold fitness from the WIDE turf trip last month. 

Keeneland Race 6

Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 PURLOIN projected to move up on TURF and finally finding that opportunity last June found themselves X_BIAS and overall IMPROVE visuals to give another grass look. Coming into this race second start of the season there was intent for this 12f distance entered and scratched from a TP race (12f) on 3/28 waiting out this spot. Rosario and Devaux are not a common pairing though can team up with live runners (45% ITM) including graded stakes winner Beatbox as well as future graded stakes winner More Than Looks when up for their maiden win. 

Keeneland Race 7

Post Time 3:12 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 PULP FICTION makes a local debut and new face training forwardly into this race. While they physically look "turfy" can get over the dirt and holding their own heads up working in company with recent Transylvania (G3) graded stakes winner Test Score in the 3/29 drill.