Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 BOX OFFICE has been pointed to this meet and similar conditions rerouted here after the weather cancellation that initially had them entered on 4/6. They show up with a 4/12 work since that scratch and retaining a live rider in F. Arrieta, a j/t combination 2/2 this meet and over the years showing a positive ROI on this circuit – 35% winners with 57% ITM.

The connections of #4 CITIZEN had their first choice to run at KEE returning from a slight layoff in a route race at the $30k MCL level however were unable to draw in on 4/11 taking the 4/12 race a higher MCL event and shorter distance where they had those challenges going in and only exacerbated with the TROUBLE_S.  They appear no worse for the wear right back in the entries and landing in the spot of class and distance intent.

As far as race par this is close to a lateral move for #1 BOLT’S TREASURE and #7 DR. STORM both landing here first off the claim and from the 4/4 common race running as the top two betting choices that day. They have the current form to remain in the mix here along with surface/distance experience. The route/two turn distance might not be the ideal for #8 LET’S GO CHAMP based on the visuals this season though perhaps holds value with their early speed and change in class back under similar conditions par from the 2/3 race and place finish where they were unable to get the job done even with a PERFECT trip though ran their race to hold place and stay in the money.

#1 COURAGEOUS CAPPEN appears well spotted to compete and live for the connections potentially even overlooked off the most recent running line. The 3/15 running line even noted the poor break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) can easily looked past as she returns both to statebred and to claiming company and race par where she has been competitive in the past and as recently as 2/3, returning off the layoff. C. Torres does not often ride for this barn though a live call – they were aboard for a start last season, (overall 12.5% win with 75% ITM #intent) the 4/6 race in open company and could suggest intent today and for a barn at the time of this analysis struggling with racing luck looking for their first win.

#3 ONE WAY OR ANOTHER is a logical type one that has been consistent number wise and the connections returning to claiming company, the level of the win going back to opening day. Since then she has held her own picking up checks in allowance company while also given no favors at the draw with the outside post in February and March and off track three weeks ago. She brings in early speed and a tactical advantage over rivals #7 SUMMORYA and #8 SUMMER SHOES in that early speed role, though those other two on their best day and with that tracking trip could hold for a share.

The change in class could be a positive for #4 MILLIE G in this third start of the year and second start of the season. They were giving up recency and local experience both with the initial start and training out of town running in the common race and behind ONE WAY OR ANOTHER - MILLIE G  with that start under their belt could project a move forward and other subtle additional changes from that race moving off the rail and rider change with Vazquez taking over.

MILLIE G has similar though buried form when looking at the Plot to #6 LADY ASTRID and could be higher of the two as LADY ASTRID has the local form and positive recent running lines and noted from the races this season. 

#8 LEVEE WAS DRY returns under similar conditions though a little more time in their second start against winners. Perhaps a bigger change today than even the trainer with the timing and owner noted, is the move off the rail for the first time this year – and one that has early speed though does not necessarily have to take pace pressure with horses to their inside today and that could be to their liking.

With the S. Asmussen pair both bring in similar numbers, form and runstyle along with the ability to compete here. The class drop should benefit #2 EPIC BATTLE along with the racing in this third start back this season and subtle progressive form into this race. The class is a rise for #6 GOOD LORD taking on winners though again not out of it on their best day just requires some price compensation with that change.

#5 KONTEEKEE also showing up with similar form, figures and runstyle looking at the Plot position and shape for this race. They might not be as far back off the pace and not as far off the early pace as projected here with #9 REMEMBER THE FEAR with the rise in class and some gate issues.  KONTEEKEE returns in a second start off the claim and retaining Torres following a strong CLOSE in the place finish last month and holds a recorded work since, the half mile move last Friday. 

#8 SHE BE SHEEHAN finds some overall changes for this race and could land in the right time and place. Class wise she races back for a tag similar to the races this season, though a pair lighter and class back with statebred from the open 3/16 race. She also find a positive change in Plot position from the others in this field and with the weight break to present the controlling speed and the edge of the other front runners in this field.

#7 TIMBAVATI is back at the right level to compete she hold consistent speed figures from the races this season and the win under a similar statebred claiming par back  in February. That race and win consistent to where she has been competitive on this circuit in the past and preferred back in with claiming company noting a scratch from N1 allowance company earlier this month to run here instead.

The race and pace is key for #1 PATTERN BET a prime contender at this level and in this group to validate the role as the projected favorite. In this group and with the rail draw while giving up some recency off the 81 day break those factors should be noted all around on value while class and speed figure history makes her a player.

Trip should  be noted for #5 NGALA one that was able to find the maiden win with a PERFECT trip last March and again a PERFECT trip on 4/11 a race that did have a loose horse on the track impacting others in the field while NGALE avoiding. With that said, her form, figures and runstyle could land another favorable trip here and while a slight downgrade from the win last out the 12-1 ML is fair and that holding allows for playable territory. 

Starting the analysis with #12 DONE ENOUGH one that brings in early speed and form/figures from GP that appear to make her a player in this race. At the same time there are some reservations to play at a shorter number shipping in dropping in for a claiming tag and with the recent front wraps addition. The recent races held a similar par to today, lacking a class edge on that front and one that with that noted requires a top effort and as expected to take the bulk of the wagering support that could create value on the others.

#8 DEMI has a class edge as she returns; a very belated return and first start off the claim picked up last season for $50k and has had some setbacks making her way back to the track. While she has those reservations the connections land in a favorable spot to have her competitive, no giveaway with the $30k tag and $45k purse. She brings in a steady series of works along with a live rider for Damato - Vazquez aboard, the two with a solid local record including last Saturday teaming with Stiglets to pull off the 18-1 MSW win.

#9 LITE IT UP LOUIE also returning from a slight layoff form a belated third start this season. They find a class change and key change from the higher allowance races where she appeared class compromised, similar to the MSW series from in the past. Her race while in MCL company and when racing under a similar par/purse fit with today’s race though still if anything will be tested to run those races here at Oaklawn. 

#1 CALAMITY has consistently recorded some of the higher figures in this field and should be the time and place for her to put it together. She makes the change from the two starts this season against open to straight 3yo company and coming back from a slightly higher par and subtle TROUBLE- in the 3/30 race while grabbing a local rider with F. Arrieta a rider that has had success for this barn on this circuit over the years.

#4 FALL COLORS has shown subtle improvement race to race and the conditioning edge over her stablemate #6 GLORYIBEE coming back today off a slight break and gaps in works noting the two heads up in a jog together for the 4/15 maintenance move. FALL COLORS with the edge on recency and fitness for this race off the two sprints to stretch out here. She should continue to build off the conditioning going back to a Key gate move in Early Feb before the  debut at the FG racing against the course profile and giving up local Oaklawn experience into the 3/30 race and appears to have come out of the race well with two works since.

GLORYIBEE, while giving up recency does have a gap in works from March to April though does return from a mildly productive race on 1/26. The races that #8 JUST GOT LUCKY exit from GP lack a class edge as she returns to give up local experience and likely to get attention for the connections and to land shorter than the ML and potentially even shorter than her races to date. The shorter number also noted for #7 POINTSETMATCH a class rise if not a lateral change lacking surface/distance experience showing up on this circuit for the first time working more recently at CD.

C. Torres lands with #8 JUST GOT LUCKY opening up #2 MEG’S FOXY GREY for Vazquez and a filly that must step up though does bring the local and surface/distance experience into this race. While improvement is required she does find a change in post position here and flow upgrade from the 3/30 common race making a WIDE RUSH into a Very Fast early pace before losing ground. 

#3 MAXIMUM TO EXCEL caught a solid MSW group and talented stakes winner, Caliente Star in the December debut. She took some time before returning for a second start with TROUBLE_S two weeks ago also caught a higher par against open company, an open length pacesetting winner, with the field spaced out at the wire. They return today with the claiming tag drop and statebred company along with the addition of blinkers – the all-around changes and condition to suggest if there is a move forward this should be the time. 

#7 DEVLISH GAL makes sense in that role coming back from a solid effort under similar conditions back in February. While it could have been more encouraging to see her back quicker, she has been entered twice since. The early speed they showed somewhat on debut last season and in the first start back this early can be upgraded with the Fast early pace, though again could find company with others in this field including from second choice #10 POPS REWARD and #8  ROSIE COTTON also with honest early speed to translate in this group – factors to consider on value and for the win end.

#6 TOODLE LOO might have to contend with that first flight though reason to upgrade with the every other pattern a flow upgrade from 3/21 part of a Fast early pace and unlike the others mentioned this will be her first start at the MCL level to present a slight class edge on that front.

#5 MEMORY MAKER projected to improve off the 2/17 EX – EXCUSE a compromised trip from start to finish with in running TROUBLE. Perhaps this is the time for given time and coming back today with a key class drop and overlooked off the running lines should hold the odds as projected from the ML. 

#10 OVETA'S HOBBY should hold a pace advantage up front and present an alternative to the favorite/s. In addition to pace, the bring upside second off and protected today. They showed surface versatility returning from the layoff earlier this month. 

#3 FIRENZE FLAVOR showed a ton of run with the BTL on debut and showed class breaking their maiden on 1/20 with a B+ effort and improved number. They were given upside off that win taking on winners on 2/21, though compromised with an EX - EXCUSE - physically WARM, fractious in the GATE, lunged out and on hold not given their chance to compete and perhaps in  part for the rider change today. 

#6 EMPRESS MATILDA brings upside for this second local start and from a solid figure in the TRAFFIC trip under similar conditions last month with the connections scratching from a similar conditioned race at the 6.5f to run here at the mile could suggest further intent. 

#8 PRINCESS SNOW presents upside and that could carry to the speed figure department. Their figures coming into this race are on the lighter end of par and in comparison to their rivals, however a lightly raced type with the figures during the sophomore season could project improvement here. That timing for progression would be now; second off and stretching out a similar pattern to the maiden win last year. The closed out the 2024 season with a BTL effort under today's conditions despite the 5th place outcome - a TROUBLES+ stumbling out of the gate and making a WIDE MOVE as the only runner in the field to make up ground while racing as a 3yo vs. older. 

#8 MISS MCKINZIE could step up today with the races to date, subtle changes and trips sine the debut last June. That debut was TROUBLE projected to IMPROVE and did for the Feb layoff return staying on as the BOS some regression was likely in play for the 3/14 race with less than 30-day recovery and tying the turf last out visually suggesting a STRETCH, the distance change for today.