Handicapper Tips & Picks

T 7 Kenogami Mat 1 Shesamanalishi 2 Not Passable

P 10 Tempting 1 Fluid 2 Little Moments

T 2 Call Me Parker 4 P L Sriracha 6 Angelic

P 7 Ys Flowernumberten 8 Gooseberry 9 Stone Sawyer

T 9 Green Glider 1 Royal Sauce 7 Stormont Beautiful

P 5 Abovemypaygrade 3 D A Captainobvious 10 B Sonny

T 10 Geen Mans Joy 9 Firefliesnthunder 8 P C Sunshine Girl

P 2 Allsmokeandmirrors 3 Grand Circuit 4 Superior Delight

P 9 Wifey Said So 8 Give Me A Corona 7 Del Diggity

P 6 Granite Beach 2 Cruise Hanover 10 Jimmy Whispers

#4 CATHOLIC SUE makes a belated return to Hawthorne and from the races last year and this year some class relief in the process. The change also finds her back on the dirt, though based on speed figures and placement, while starting out her career at OP has been consistent number wise and just a matter of finding the right place to compete. That should hand here with today’s group and today’s race shape looking at OptixPLOT with the Fire Contention and higher SpeedRate to upgrade CATHOLIC SUE from “off the pace” the Large Q4 Square.

#1 CALLAS also bringing in form from TP where she was racing against a higher N2 condition and prior route form to return to a top from the most recent sprint. That 3/27 race might have been needed to reset with the circuit change and surface switch returning to the dirt and returning to the Fast Dirt for the first time since March 2024.

#3 ANNIE’S HOPE has the benefit of a race over this course from 4/13 while under trainer B. Morey a capable barn, though a barn that was COLD with the sample at that time. The barn change moves to trending HOT for F. Villa while also stretching out in distance here to present as the controlling speed under J. Felix. Number wise she has recorded some of the higher figures in this field, numbers that fit on turf, dirt, synth, route and sprint – the tldr, she is versatile.

#5 TWO TIMER dominated the maiden group last month and will be tested against winners, though would not be surprised for them to come back and compete. The distance change comes into play though from last year started out and remained at the route distance, something to at the least suggest some route placement intent at the time. Number wise she can a strong figure, one she might need to run back to should they others rebound off recent races and come back to their tops.  

The change in class and a much lower race par on this circuit should allow #5 FAMILIY TRADITION every chance to get back on track. As far as the races this season, they held their own especially early in the meet and competitive all the way up until 4/13 – not their best race of the season though was giving up recency from the 43 day rest (now second off and of this cycle) and also mildly impacted by KICKBACK- in running.

#4 VANISKY was hustled to make the two 2024 Hawthorne starts, though was not race ready at the time and showed massive improvement at Oaklawn in the 12/13 return, enough to given them a longshot look on 2/3 when finding the right barn and level and responded with a competitive showing and show result. Back up in class 11-days later played against them on 2/14 (DROP) though not as “obvious” as the TROUBLES+ on 2/28 taking a stumble losing the rider out of the gate and had the break been clean on the day VANISKY might have been competitive that afternoon. With all of that said, they were entered back on 3/30, a route race under similar conditions and land here in a sprint. The distance might not be their ideal and at the least something they have not run  at since the summer of 2022, though a much, much lower race par is an equalizer.

#3 ALYANAABI could present the speed of the speed in this race. Overall there is not much when looking at the Plot with first call speed with #1 BREAKING NEWS though draw outside of them could present the edge for ALYANAABI. Gate issue can be a concern with the rail for BREAKING NEWS noting the SLOG in the 3/27 return and noted at times in the past.

The pattern of SLOG is present for #2 JET FLIGHT one that other wise fits at this level and on the drop even with the distance change back to 6f for the first time since last season. L. Colon has had success aboard and their presence taking over today is notable for intent. They also returned with the front wraps off the layoff just 11-days ago and something to look for here.

#6 FIRST MASAMUNE shown with the Large Square on the Plot to represent their strong finishing ability compared to others in this field. Their running position (Plot position) can be taken as a slight change from the majority of their races, though going back to last year coming off a similar long layoff on 4/13 had a similar Plot position/shape finishing second, albeit flow aided and a distance 5 lengths back from the winner, place finish. 

Looking at the Plot there is a pace scenario for #5 MINIMO to find the right trip in today’s race shape for longshot consideration. Their current speed figures (Past 3 Runlines) by comparison are lighter than some others in this field though have back numbers that are on par to compete. Today’s par is lower than the two starts already this season and in each race showed a MOVE, lack of “Red” and the GALLOP+ three weeks ago could further suggest a move forward in their form cycle and for this stretch out in distance.

#2 DAPPER DUDE is also an off the pace runner to upgrade with today’s Surface/Distance race shape given the Sun Contention and higher SpeedRate. This will be their second start of the season for live connection, the change in class moves them ABOVE+ in the Class department.

As far as the early pace, #1 GRAND ILLUSION sat off the pace with the maiden win back in December at TP, though as shown on the Plot and from the sample of races to date natural early speed with the Q1 position. They will likely find company in that role with #3 PURPLE OCTOPUS on the stretch out in distance and early speed from #6 MOVE IN SILENCE brings them into that first flight.

#4 TIE BREAKER LENNIE is an in between type in this race. Their runstyle should have them sitting a perfect trip, however lacking kick from the other could be overtaken in that final 3f at the same time they are in form and could just grind it out, at the least stay for a minor share. 

#4 PURE HICKORY makes a belated return and upgraded in this spot. Not only will they find significant class relief from the much, much, much higher par FG events as they return to this circuit where they recorded B OptixGRADE for the debut effort. The 1/16 effort was strong BTL enough to create an EX – EXCUSE on the day showing a ton of run after missing the break and breaking in a tangle (VSLOG, TROUBLE) impacting their outcome.

#6 WAHIDA OF MARDEN does not have the higher figures when compared to #1 GOLDEN NOTE and #3 SAFECRACKER SUE, though is not far off of them. In addition, WAHIDA OF MARDEN makes her first start at this MCL level giving her the look as a “new face” compared to those two and lateral change in class for #2 ENTICING OPTION. WAHIDA OF MARDEN brings in third off recency, progressive pattern of numbers, the front wrap removal last out a change from the layoff return to further intent. She could also benefit from the outside draw and has some tactical speed, something tougher to see on the running lines where as that first call speed has been shown with GOLDEN NOTE and SAFECRACKER SUE, though showing early speed in longer route races that could be tested here. 

DiVito holds a strong hand in this race with the pair: #7 EMPIRICAL VIEW makes some changes coming back for this race. Class wise she closed out 2024 on this circuit and class level – an effort upgraded with the trip (TROUBLE, MOVE) and a rider change following the TACTIC- while also following the IMPROVE Projection from that day. The more obvious change being the surface and distance returning to the dirt and one turn distance fir the first time since their debut back in July 2023. She showed run in that race, the SLOG in part to the tendency of the rider that day and making a WIDE MOVE into 4^th and visuals also suggesting IMPROVE.

#2 VEGAS CONDO has the edge in recency coming off a smart MSW win last month under A. Centeno. She does take on winner for the first time and today’s par, a higher par than that event and going back to races from the sophomore season in California struggled under a similar par without much in terms of excuse, at the same time recording figures that fit with this field – the reminder, class not the same as speed.

#1 SWEET MUSIC should hold her own and compete here. She has some challenges giving up recency, a first start back off the layoff while also taking on winners and older for the first time. While there are those hurdles there, it also opens the door for upside and that potential improvement keeps her in contention. In terms of numbers and race par, she was running under similar with figures on par for today’s race, those efforts late in the juvenile season and overall consistent. 

While #5 RAGNOW recorded a B OptixGRADE with their effort at this level on 4/13 to support back under similar conditions, today’s race par is higher. They still have things to support as the “horse to beat” including a subtle upgrade moving from a Q1 Circle last month to a Square here. There could be the subtle par change that could open up the race to an upset.

#6 ROYAL AND READY will make their first start at this level and while speed figure improvement is required, this lightly raced type could have more to show. They showed some mild progression last year while perhaps rushed to make the races towards the end of the meet. Showing up off the layoff last month, they made a positive appearance physically, however mentally (MANIC) they were not as present or race ready and might have required the start (PREP) something that carried in running breaking SLOG and fitness with the WIDE trip. They return with the change in class, distance, and rider change to further intent with O. Mojica aboard.

On class, #4 CUTLASS KING can also be given an upgrade as this marks their first time at this level and moved up on this circuit from C OptixGRADE’s recorded at Oaklawn to the B- OptixGRADE on 4/6. The race shape last month should provide conditioning taking part of the Very Fast early pace contested with the chalk winner, Bigfoot Sighting.

#2 MY LAST ESCAPADE was behind rival RAGNOW last month in the common race though as part of the DUEL X_FLOW can be upgraded and should hold their form here. Fair odds in this case is questionable with the ML; the lower par on 4/13 was easier to take 7-2 on the day and probably in this spot could need closer to their odds from the prior starts for required price compensation here.  

#3 RAMESSES recorded a B OptixGRADE last month, a slightly lower level and par while making the early MOVE that had them caught late. While a win at this level could be a tough task, they are in form, Plot position and shape is tough to ignore and kept in exotics. While their form should hold here, like MY LAST ESCAPADE the value required is not quite there on the win end given the change and were 8-1, arguably fair odds when at this level on 3/27. 

Assessing ML favorite, #2 ETERNALLY GRATEFUL, they are the horse to beat bringing in current form and figures. They have been competitive this year at Oaklawn under a similar par and purse to today’s conditions. With that said, there are some others in there that could be sitting on peak effort, looking to pull off the upset.

#3 INDY CHARGES stepped up last month at KEE against winner finishing together at the wire earning a B OptixGRADE with the place finish. Today’s par is a lateral move and could be a horse that is coming into their own and improving.

#7 RUNAWAY CHARLIE also seems to be that type of horse and perhaps the surface switch in part to the recent progression moving over to the dirt. With that said, this is a horse that took awhile to pick up that first career win, though showed run as a juvenile from the first couple of races enough the connections at the time has considered running them in the Kings Plate (entered and scratched) while still a maiden.

#8 HANDS OFF THE GOODS could be a touch below on class for this level as they return also giving up recency from the 194 day layoff. The placement here with that time away should be a good spot to get on track and race under their belt – this spot could be tougher to return in for a win, though looking at the Plot, their runstyle in today’s race shape could assist for underneath.

In terms of the Plot and race shape, #5 SHARP STICK is right there as a Square with rival ETERNALLY GRATEFUL and RUNWAYS CHARLIE, the Plot position sitting Above+ however when it comes to Class and Speed, they shift to an Average Rating, no edge in those categories. 

Kicking off the day with the likely favorite as 3-ANNIE'S HOPE looks to be the controlling pace. She was claimed from her last and stretches back out to two nears, where she was a near miss two back. 5-TWO TIMER was a fine winner while at a good price last out. She will also try two turns as she makes a logical step up. Let's see if she rates and chases the entire way. 4-CATHOLIC SUE has had numerous opportunities to get win number two, and almost did three starts back. She needs pace to chase and that is my only concern for her today.

Off his last start, it looks like the ML favorite, 1-BREAKING NEWS, will be tough once again. He has tactical speed with really only Alyanaabi as the other potential pace horse. He should take advantage of the rail draw and be very tough to beat. 6-FIRST MASAMUNE was a good winner in his final start of 2024 as he has worked forwardly toward his return. If the two potential speed horses are sent away early, he could pick up the pieces late. 5-FAMILY TRADITION has been in tough in Arkansas in his recent starts. He has had past success here and gets his best distance. He's another though that will need some pace to close into.

2-DAPPER DUDE comes in off a good effort last out as he runs for a barn that has been sharp all meet long. With pace to either side of him, he should be able to settle early and look to grind things out in the lane. 3-PURPLE OCTOPUS will be one to show speed as he stretches out. He has the potential to steal this as he runs for the tag today. Let's see how he handles the two turns. 1-GRAND ILLUSION ran a decent race in his last but did tire in the stretch. All of his starts make him a player here but I tend to wonder if he's a bit better on synthetic.

Thinking the lack of early pace in here can only benefit 1-GOLDEN NOTE as she makes her second start of the meet. She chased in her last and finished a clear second. She comes in fresh and should welcome the added sixteenth. 4-PURE HICKORY drops to the bottom as she makes her second start of the year. She closed some ground after a poor start in New Orleans in January and has since posted multiple gate drills.2-ENTICING OPTION chased in her two starts before tiring in the lane. She may be in a similar spot early today but could sneak in for a share.

There looks to be some pace in here which should benefit the chances of 1-SWEET MUSIC to save ground and rally in the lane. She was a good winner in her maiden score in Kentucky last November as has worked well toward her return. The barn always has them ready as she could sneak away at a price. 2-VEGAS CONDO is one of two DiVito runners in with a shot. She stalked and pounced in her maiden win last out and has posted a pair of sharp drills since that start. The added eighth shouldn't be an issue in here. 4-CALL'EM ALL comes off a layoff as she has worked well toward her return. She has tactical speed as she figures to tuck in just behind the early pace and get the jump on the late closers.

Off his last effort, I find it tough for these to beat 5-RAGNOW as he's another well spotted Rodriguez runner. He stretched back out for his most recent start, tracking the early leaders and nearly getting up. He should get a similar trip once again as he may find and even slower pace to chase in here. 3-RAMESSES steps up off his last but he held his own in that spot and figures in here. He makes his third start since adding blinkers and could be one to show a bit more early speed. 1-BEARS' D takes the class drop as he figures from the rail. Slow starts were costly in his last could but a recent strong drill shows he could be sitting on an improved performance today.

A good allowance field closes the Thursday card. There's a few that can show speed but none are committed to the front. Giving the nod to 7-RUNAWAY CHARLIE as he comes back off a near miss in his last. He chased the pace in that spot and battled to the wire. He will likely look to tuck just behind the early pace once again and run on in the lane. 3-INDY CHARGES ON ships in for this spot off a nice effort in his last. He could potentially be the pace of the race and has shown to be game when challenged. 2-ETERNALLY GRATEFUL ran well throughout the Oaklawn meet as he steps up a bit off his last couple. He was hung wide in the short stretch event last out, which likely compromised his chances. The full Hawthorne stretch should only benefit him in here.

3-ANNIE’S HOPE could be the best of the speed. Recent claim moved her into a barn off to a torrid start at the meet. They’ll have to catch her. 5-TWO TIMER hadn’t shown anything until they dropped her to a low level maiden claimer for her first start here. She ran away from the field. Meets winners for the first time but she does have enough speed to make things interesting. 4-CATHOLIC SUE could be the best closer in the field. She had only two drills in the two months since her last race but she had been running all winter so her conditioning could still be there. Her best chance would come if the top pair vied for the lead.

1-BREAKING NEWS needed last. He was making his first start since October. He’s been a consistent performer throughout his career, running well on or off the pace. Beaten favorite of last will be much tougher with a recent race under him. 5-FAMILY TRADITION drops. He ran competitively here last year and had some pretty good races at Oaklawn early in their meet before tailing off recently. The drop into easier company should wake him back up. 3-ALYANAABI is another likely to improve off his most recent race. Speedy runner might get an unchallenged early lead which could make him tougher to catch late.

There is little doubt that 3-PURPLE OCTOPUS will get to the lead. The only question is how long he will stay there. He’ll be making his first start around two turns, probably the weakest category for this normally strong barn, but he could be so far in front of his rivals that he might forget to stop. 1-GRAND ILLUSION makes his second start of the meet. This will be the first time that he races without coming off a layoff. He ran well enough in last but figures to improve off that race and the slight drop into easier. 2-DAPPER DUDE had enough races on dirt to let you know he really doesn’t like racing on this surface but his last start wasn’t terrible and he’s dropping into an even easier field.

Not in love with any in here. 4-PURE HICKORY has been training well since her last start in January. She finished second here, on turf, in her career debut last October but showed little in subsequent races. However, she’s dropping to her lowest level ever. Could be the best of these. 1-GOLDEN NOTE finished second in last. That was her first start on dirt as well as her first race after getting claimed by this outfit. She appears to hold a minor speed edge. Might be able to lead throughout. 6-WAHIDA OF MARDAN finished in the money only one time in her 10 races but she’s taking a dramatic drop in class. It won’t take much to beat this crew. The drop alone could do it. 

Can make a case for every runner in this race but will go with 7-EMPIRICAL VIEW. She didn’t show a thing in previous dirt starts but she looks like the only runner likely to come from off the pace in a race where the front end could be contested by virtually all of her rivals. 2-VEGAS CONDO, teammate of top choice, might not make the front end early but she does have decent speed and will be tracking the early leaders. She narrowly got up to win her local debut. Might get the same kind of trip today. 3-SECRET OPERATION was an impressive 10-length winner in her first start of the meet. She had dropped into claimers for that race. Moves back into allowance company but her speed figures suggest that she fits well with these.

4-CUTLASS KING drops back into maiden claimers. He displayed good speed and held on to finish second in last while racing against maiden specials. A similar effort today would put him squarely in the hunt. 5-RAGNOW was favored in last and was narrowly beaten. His barn and rider are off to hot starts at the meet. He’s never going to be far off the pace. Can take over late. 2-MY LAST ESCAPADE finished second in his two starts this meet, at this level, and also finished second in his two local starts last meet when racing at this level. Speed figures indicate that he’s one of the faster members of this field. Might finally break through.

Great race to end the card. A case can be made for most members of this field but 2-ETERNALLY GRATEFUL might be the one they have to beat. He’s been consistently competitive in his career. He’s moving up in class but he’s been razor sharp at the tough Oaklawn meet. His speed figures suggest that he’s the fastest of these but he really hasn’t shown the desire to finish first over the last couple years despite meeting what should be “softer” company. Love the tenacity 3-INDY CHARGES ON displayed at Keeneland in last, his first start against winners. He fought for the lead from the very start and still finished second, only a head back. He might wind up getting the same kind of trip in his local debut but at least we know he’s up to the challenge. 7-RUNAWAY CHARLIE has been sharp since moving to the Tracy barn, He finished third in New Orleans in his first start for them and finished second by a neck in his local debut. Like top pick, he’s adept at running on the lead or coming from off the pace. Could be tough either way.