Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 CATHOLIC SUE makes a belated return to Hawthorne and from the races last year and this year some class relief in the process. The change also finds her back on the dirt, though based on speed figures and placement, while starting out her career at OP has been consistent number wise and just a matter of finding the right place to compete. That should hand here with today’s group and today’s race shape looking at OptixPLOT with the Fire Contention and higher SpeedRate to upgrade CATHOLIC SUE from “off the pace” the Large Q4 Square.

#1 CALLAS also bringing in form from TP where she was racing against a higher N2 condition and prior route form to return to a top from the most recent sprint. That 3/27 race might have been needed to reset with the circuit change and surface switch returning to the dirt and returning to the Fast Dirt for the first time since March 2024.

#3 ANNIE’S HOPE has the benefit of a race over this course from 4/13 while under trainer B. Morey a capable barn, though a barn that was COLD with the sample at that time. The barn change moves to trending HOT for F. Villa while also stretching out in distance here to present as the controlling speed under J. Felix. Number wise she has recorded some of the higher figures in this field, numbers that fit on turf, dirt, synth, route and sprint – the tldr, she is versatile.

#5 TWO TIMER dominated the maiden group last month and will be tested against winners, though would not be surprised for them to come back and compete. The distance change comes into play though from last year started out and remained at the route distance, something to at the least suggest some route placement intent at the time. Number wise she can a strong figure, one she might need to run back to should they others rebound off recent races and come back to their tops.  

The change in class and a much lower race par on this circuit should allow #5 FAMILIY TRADITION every chance to get back on track. As far as the races this season, they held their own especially early in the meet and competitive all the way up until 4/13 – not their best race of the season though was giving up recency from the 43 day rest (now second off and of this cycle) and also mildly impacted by KICKBACK- in running.

#4 VANISKY was hustled to make the two 2024 Hawthorne starts, though was not race ready at the time and showed massive improvement at Oaklawn in the 12/13 return, enough to given them a longshot look on 2/3 when finding the right barn and level and responded with a competitive showing and show result. Back up in class 11-days later played against them on 2/14 (DROP) though not as “obvious” as the TROUBLES+ on 2/28 taking a stumble losing the rider out of the gate and had the break been clean on the day VANISKY might have been competitive that afternoon. With all of that said, they were entered back on 3/30, a route race under similar conditions and land here in a sprint. The distance might not be their ideal and at the least something they have not run  at since the summer of 2022, though a much, much lower race par is an equalizer.

#3 ALYANAABI could present the speed of the speed in this race. Overall there is not much when looking at the Plot with first call speed with #1 BREAKING NEWS though draw outside of them could present the edge for ALYANAABI. Gate issue can be a concern with the rail for BREAKING NEWS noting the SLOG in the 3/27 return and noted at times in the past.

The pattern of SLOG is present for #2 JET FLIGHT one that other wise fits at this level and on the drop even with the distance change back to 6f for the first time since last season. L. Colon has had success aboard and their presence taking over today is notable for intent. They also returned with the front wraps off the layoff just 11-days ago and something to look for here.

#6 FIRST MASAMUNE shown with the Large Square on the Plot to represent their strong finishing ability compared to others in this field. Their running position (Plot position) can be taken as a slight change from the majority of their races, though going back to last year coming off a similar long layoff on 4/13 had a similar Plot position/shape finishing second, albeit flow aided and a distance 5 lengths back from the winner, place finish. 

Looking at the Plot there is a pace scenario for #5 MINIMO to find the right trip in today’s race shape for longshot consideration. Their current speed figures (Past 3 Runlines) by comparison are lighter than some others in this field though have back numbers that are on par to compete. Today’s par is lower than the two starts already this season and in each race showed a MOVE, lack of “Red” and the GALLOP+ three weeks ago could further suggest a move forward in their form cycle and for this stretch out in distance.

#2 DAPPER DUDE is also an off the pace runner to upgrade with today’s Surface/Distance race shape given the Sun Contention and higher SpeedRate. This will be their second start of the season for live connection, the change in class moves them ABOVE+ in the Class department.

As far as the early pace, #1 GRAND ILLUSION sat off the pace with the maiden win back in December at TP, though as shown on the Plot and from the sample of races to date natural early speed with the Q1 position. They will likely find company in that role with #3 PURPLE OCTOPUS on the stretch out in distance and early speed from #6 MOVE IN SILENCE brings them into that first flight.

#4 TIE BREAKER LENNIE is an in between type in this race. Their runstyle should have them sitting a perfect trip, however lacking kick from the other could be overtaken in that final 3f at the same time they are in form and could just grind it out, at the least stay for a minor share. 

#4 PURE HICKORY makes a belated return and upgraded in this spot. Not only will they find significant class relief from the much, much, much higher par FG events as they return to this circuit where they recorded B OptixGRADE for the debut effort. The 1/16 effort was strong BTL enough to create an EX – EXCUSE on the day showing a ton of run after missing the break and breaking in a tangle (VSLOG, TROUBLE) impacting their outcome.

#6 WAHIDA OF MARDEN does not have the higher figures when compared to #1 GOLDEN NOTE and #3 SAFECRACKER SUE, though is not far off of them. In addition, WAHIDA OF MARDEN makes her first start at this MCL level giving her the look as a “new face” compared to those two and lateral change in class for #2 ENTICING OPTION. WAHIDA OF MARDEN brings in third off recency, progressive pattern of numbers, the front wrap removal last out a change from the layoff return to further intent. She could also benefit from the outside draw and has some tactical speed, something tougher to see on the running lines where as that first call speed has been shown with GOLDEN NOTE and SAFECRACKER SUE, though showing early speed in longer route races that could be tested here. 

DiVito holds a strong hand in this race with the pair: #7 EMPIRICAL VIEW makes some changes coming back for this race. Class wise she closed out 2024 on this circuit and class level – an effort upgraded with the trip (TROUBLE, MOVE) and a rider change following the TACTIC- while also following the IMPROVE Projection from that day. The more obvious change being the surface and distance returning to the dirt and one turn distance fir the first time since their debut back in July 2023. She showed run in that race, the SLOG in part to the tendency of the rider that day and making a WIDE MOVE into 4^th and visuals also suggesting IMPROVE.

#2 VEGAS CONDO has the edge in recency coming off a smart MSW win last month under A. Centeno. She does take on winner for the first time and today’s par, a higher par than that event and going back to races from the sophomore season in California struggled under a similar par without much in terms of excuse, at the same time recording figures that fit with this field – the reminder, class not the same as speed.

#1 SWEET MUSIC should hold her own and compete here. She has some challenges giving up recency, a first start back off the layoff while also taking on winners and older for the first time. While there are those hurdles there, it also opens the door for upside and that potential improvement keeps her in contention. In terms of numbers and race par, she was running under similar with figures on par for today’s race, those efforts late in the juvenile season and overall consistent. 

While #5 RAGNOW recorded a B OptixGRADE with their effort at this level on 4/13 to support back under similar conditions, today’s race par is higher. They still have things to support as the “horse to beat” including a subtle upgrade moving from a Q1 Circle last month to a Square here. There could be the subtle par change that could open up the race to an upset.

#6 ROYAL AND READY will make their first start at this level and while speed figure improvement is required, this lightly raced type could have more to show. They showed some mild progression last year while perhaps rushed to make the races towards the end of the meet. Showing up off the layoff last month, they made a positive appearance physically, however mentally (MANIC) they were not as present or race ready and might have required the start (PREP) something that carried in running breaking SLOG and fitness with the WIDE trip. They return with the change in class, distance, and rider change to further intent with O. Mojica aboard.

On class, #4 CUTLASS KING can also be given an upgrade as this marks their first time at this level and moved up on this circuit from C OptixGRADE’s recorded at Oaklawn to the B- OptixGRADE on 4/6. The race shape last month should provide conditioning taking part of the Very Fast early pace contested with the chalk winner, Bigfoot Sighting.

#2 MY LAST ESCAPADE was behind rival RAGNOW last month in the common race though as part of the DUEL X_FLOW can be upgraded and should hold their form here. Fair odds in this case is questionable with the ML; the lower par on 4/13 was easier to take 7-2 on the day and probably in this spot could need closer to their odds from the prior starts for required price compensation here.  

#3 RAMESSES recorded a B OptixGRADE last month, a slightly lower level and par while making the early MOVE that had them caught late. While a win at this level could be a tough task, they are in form, Plot position and shape is tough to ignore and kept in exotics. While their form should hold here, like MY LAST ESCAPADE the value required is not quite there on the win end given the change and were 8-1, arguably fair odds when at this level on 3/27. 

Assessing ML favorite, #2 ETERNALLY GRATEFUL, they are the horse to beat bringing in current form and figures. They have been competitive this year at Oaklawn under a similar par and purse to today’s conditions. With that said, there are some others in there that could be sitting on peak effort, looking to pull off the upset.

#3 INDY CHARGES stepped up last month at KEE against winner finishing together at the wire earning a B OptixGRADE with the place finish. Today’s par is a lateral move and could be a horse that is coming into their own and improving.

#7 RUNAWAY CHARLIE also seems to be that type of horse and perhaps the surface switch in part to the recent progression moving over to the dirt. With that said, this is a horse that took awhile to pick up that first career win, though showed run as a juvenile from the first couple of races enough the connections at the time has considered running them in the Kings Plate (entered and scratched) while still a maiden.

#8 HANDS OFF THE GOODS could be a touch below on class for this level as they return also giving up recency from the 194 day layoff. The placement here with that time away should be a good spot to get on track and race under their belt – this spot could be tougher to return in for a win, though looking at the Plot, their runstyle in today’s race shape could assist for underneath.

In terms of the Plot and race shape, #5 SHARP STICK is right there as a Square with rival ETERNALLY GRATEFUL and RUNWAYS CHARLIE, the Plot position sitting Above+ however when it comes to Class and Speed, they shift to an Average Rating, no edge in those categories.