Handicapper Tips & Picks

A competitive race given the complexion of this field and challenges with runners taking different paths and likely different odds (many previous longshots) as things change here. Those scenario also along with recency should upgrade #5 JUSTAWALKINTHEPARK one that has the higher recorded figure in this field going back to their second start, the December effort at the FG. That race with a higher par followed the series of races that meet and should move up on this circuit. They find closer to a lateral change in class, with a massive flow upgrade making WIDE RUSH after breaking out into a Very Fast early pace and the race shape still Very Fast late as JUSTAWALKINTHEPARK was eased up/NO_PUSH late.

M. Boyce returns with the pair and edge in recency with #1 RUMBLING one that made a positive appearance coming off the layoff and it was reasonable to project upside from the juvenile season, and they showed as much with the improved effort and all things considered a good show finish adversity (TROUBLE SAVED) notwithstanding, however today take the rise all around and could require another move forward from the return last month to stand up on the win end.

#3 FRONTIER MARKET returns from the long layoff, something not common for this barn with maiden, RUMBLING being the recent sample of maiden runners off the long layoff. With that runner showing improvement off the bench, it is reasonable to project similar with FRONTIER MARKET. The rider change is notable already with a win this season for Boyce aboard, Beehive, a runner with a lot of success for this jockey/trainer combination last year on the dirt, a positive ROI with that sample of runners – 30% winners and 87% ITM.

At longer odds in their most recent starts both #2 MARK MY MEMORY and #6 RED RIZZLER turned in competitive B- OptixGRADE efforts. In terms of class, RED RIZZLER did so at the higher level and par than MARK MY MEMORY though the 4yo must show they can repeat as they can often show an “every other” type though the move to the outside pit be to their liking while on the dirt.

#4 LONE RETURN returns as the other older horse in the field giving up recency from the 206 day layoff. They could be at the right level for their abilities, a horse that has in 14 of the 15 races to date run against maiden allowance (MSW) or one time against statebred allowance and the lone start in MCL company was a subtle and WIDE trip on the turf, a much higher par than what today’s race brings. 

As an individual, #6 MISS MIKOS is the horse to beat. Looking at the Plot, she brings in dominant early speed as a Large Q1 Square and that presence should make her tough on the front end and by contrast play against rival #3 ABSOLUTE MIRACLE with a similar position early bringing in first and second call speed (Q1 Above the ParLine) though lack the finishing ability – Circle – vs Square – late.

With MISS MIKOS given the strong edge in that role she could have to battle with the early contention as both #1 JOYZELLA and #5 SHE STOPPED SHORT sit in Q3, a position with the same first call speed (reading Plot left to right) though not as strong second call speed (top to bottom) as their Q1 rivals.

That scenario can assist from off the pace and #2 CHIQUITA REINA coming in with form from Oaklawn Park that should transfer here, however in terms of par this is a lateral move and looking at her most recent figures and OptixGRADE, those efforts sit below today’s par.

#4 THUNDER KIN is the most interesting coming back off the layoff with upside and class from juvenile season to step up in this spot and not unreasonable to project her on the level of others in this field including main rival, MISS MIKOS here. THUNDER KIN holds the lone win while with Berndt running fresh on debut and brings in steady local works, enough to come out race ready. I. Hernandez taking over today is a very, very live rider for this barn at Hawthorne. Since last year, they show a positive $.52 ROI with 18% winners and 63% ITM – two of the winners this year were long layoff returnees with Papa’s Nico Boy and Shake Up. 

This is a strong race where each and every horse fits as a contender. That makes it tougher to take a short number on principal while respecting #6 LUNDBERG in that role and coming out of the Oaklawn meet with solid consistent figures chasing things up to run protected on this circuit. Looking at the Plot, they are capable, though no real strong edge something that carries to others in this field – no pace advantage or disadvantage.

That can move up a runner like #3 KING ANTHONY one returning first off the claim, though given 35-days while returning protected here and on their best day holds numbers in line with the main contenders and perhaps just finding the right changes (including 6f distance) and timing coming back in here returning to those efforts.

#4 IT’S BOBS BUSINESS returns under similar conditions from the 4/6 race and upgraded off the visuals making a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ overall suggesting a PREP returning that day. They have back numbers from earlier in the juvenile season while sprinting of the dirt and perhaps the positive sign last out the connections has been belatedly looking for. In terms of the race winner, #2 CORTESE they found the right FREE tracking trip with first run and especially when looking at the Plot could easily repeat in a nearly identical way.

Their stablemate and as noted in Race 2 the jockey trainer combination with layoff runners as that can apply here for #5 VICTORIOUS VANDA – at the same time they could need the start and added ground. While their season final allowance win on 9/26 fits on numbers and similar par they were all out (HARD) to hold for the 19-1 upset win and while given credit as the BOS they SAVED ground and the pace was Slow early and late, a slight flow downgrade going forward.

#1 DANZA TAXI also gives up recency and ultimately could benefit from a race and number wise must improve as their numbers fit on par though their top figures are lighter than top figures from others. Making the case for them here, and again looking at the Plot, there is a scenario they scamper clear on the lead and a pacesetting threat in this group. 

#6 SHIP IT should have every chance to win this race. She fits this condition (a very cool and creative condition imo) perfectly and finds the subtle change she could require at this point in her career to return to winning ways. In the past, she has recorded some of the higher figures in this field and done so consistently. Those factors encouraged the connections to bring her along as the part of the Oaklawn string, however between timing, class and trip struggled that season. She showed up on this circuit last month, a shorter distance, a TROUBLE_S and a Fast early and late pace while racing with a strong headwind on a very blowy day to upgrade from that event here. The timing also might be on her side, given 31-days and a live rider with Bendezu aboard.

The Plot position for SHIP IT from off the pace as a  Q2/Q4 Circle is not the most ideal shape, though in part to the Oaklawn races impacting the shape primarily where position fits today’s race dynamic with the Sun Contention and honest 38 SpeedRate to set up training runners from off the pace. Something to upgrade #7 GO STORMIN GIRL as she brings a positive form cycle pattern with improving (C+, B-) OptixGRADES into this third start back.

The pace is noted for #5 LOST SUNSET with legitimate first call speed shown as the Large Q3 Square, though should be tested with both #2 FIT AND FAMOUS and #3 MISS SAIPAN in A1 and above the ParLine testing the group all around and could even make things tougher with #4 DIXIE PENNY potentially in that first flight and with SHIP IT close to that ParLine on Surface/Distance. 

Based off current form and figures, #4 A REAL HERO has the edge and the horse to beat. With that said, she is one that can come from off the pace, though will note a Plot change for her here moving to Q1/Q2 for the first time since a route race back in 2022 at PID. The change is likely in play not to her runstyle but more to current form and representing the edge in this field on that factor.

That change in “trip” for A REAL HERO could put the pressure on the bookended pacesetting runners as #1 BLAZINGLY from the rail will look to get back on track here for the second start of the season, going back to the first part of the meet returning with front wraps and something to look for today; #7 RUNNERS HEAT from the outside lacked excuse up front with the Slow early and late pace as the FTQ (first to quit on the duel) on 4/17 though perhaps needed the race coming back that day off the 186-day layoff.

Looking to get creative in this spot and outside the obvious, #2 PALACE MAGIC is at the right level and distance (the change to 6f) for her to compete and run as  contender. She brings in current form with progression race to race for this third start off the layoff and back numbers that stack up with the current once from A REAL HERO.

Number wise #3 RAINY MOUNTAIN has those similar figures, though has not run those numbers since the 2022-23 campaign. The change in class and perhaps even the timing coming back around could be key noting some DROP OptixNOTES Projections from last year that support the class change. 

From a race shape standpoint this race could go through #6 PHILIPSBURG on the front end when looking at the Plot and the edge over the other Q1-3 runners. With that said, there is a more “contentious” Surface/Distance bunching up scenario that PHILIPSBURG could be tested with an including the three runners along the inside (including the returning 4yo #3 LAST MINUTE) to increase the contention and force PHILIPSBURG on the outside of those runners to use to clear or make them show they are “best” with a ground loss, wide trip to win.

That scenario opens up the race from off the pace and form #7 PROFESSOR HIGGINS second off and one that should benefit from the PREP returning from the layoff last month to move up here. Trip could also suit #5 PLUNDER looking at the Plot though other factors like Class will be tested back at the allowance level and a much, much higher race par returning here from the lighter par back on 4/10.

#4 CANYON SHADOWS lands in this spot for their return and while picking up the allowance win last season recording a strong figure on 9/5 in the process, that race against statebred noted and not as much success following in open allowance company. Perhaps that had to do with the timing more than class coming off that top on 9/5 just two weeks later with a NO_PUSH to take with a grain of salt and the layoff following the 10/13 race closing week to be forgiving of outcome. 

This is a strong “pace makes the race” and “value makes play” way to play the finale. The early pace should be as advertised Contentious with the Sun and 38 SpeedRate that includes #4 NULLARBOR, #5 CHAOS REIGNS and #8 EUCLID AVENUE all in Quad I above the ParLine and Circles – a lack of finishing ability to look outside that trio for the top spot.

#1 DOUBLE THUNDER found a PERFECT trip to win returning to Hawthorne and the dirt last month and could find similar with today’s Plot position and draw where they can save ground from the rail and look for first run. With a similar trip #2 MCMONEY and #3 GLOBAL EMPIRE will be right there to stalk-and pounce.

GLOBAL EMPIRE has the edge on class of the two and upgrade making a WIDE MOVE into a Slow pace in the 4/20 return while earning a B- OptixGRADE in the process with the number from last summer standing out in today’s group and on the higher side of today’s par. They hold that perhaps buried speed and class edge over MCMONEY – one that is likely to be shorter of the two coming off the win two weeks ago though had a SETUP with their main rival getting tired late and fell into the win.

#6 CODE RUNNER brings in current form for this third start back off the layoff and perhaps a peak effort with that projection and back numbers that fit as a contender. That projection must come with price compensation given the slight change in class and higher par. In terms of speed figures, they will also require improvement, though could see that with the trip making a MOVE through TRAFFIC into a Very Slow early and late pace. That was followed up two weeks later with a WIDE CLOSE and fitness should be there to support on conditioning as well.  

A competitive race to open the day as there's not a ton of speed in here. It's a slight step up but 2-MARK MY MEMORY looks to be well spotted for Berndt as he comes off a solid effort in his last. That start was his first with Lasix as he chased before giving way. In here I expect he carries his speed a bit further. 6-RED RIZZLER is overdue for his maiden score as he raced well at this level last out. He should be in a chasing spot early today as a repeat of his last will put him right there. 1-RUMBLING also steps up but figures in this spot. He raced from the second flight in his last and ran on late. This is his second start with the addition of Lasix as he's a potential price play.

I'm not sure anyone can beat 6-MISS MIKOS in here as she makes her second start of the year. She has been solid at Hawthorne and comes out of a tough starter at Oaklawn in her last. Look for early speed from her in here as she should be able to contend the entire way. 2-CHIQUITA REINA comes in from Oaklawn as she has raced with mixed results that meet. She will need some pace to chase as she figures to close ground in the lane. 3-ABSOLUTE MIRACLE is another that has been solid at Hawthorne and could also show some speed. She tried the turf in her last but a main track return should move her up.

Solid field of optional claimers with a few in here with early speed. Looking to 6-LUNDBERG as he comes in off a victory at Oaklawn in his last. He has run well here in the past and while he has early speed, he doesn't need to lead to win. 2-CORTESE won at this level in his last. He stalked the leaders early and took over with an impressive stretch move. He's another that has been fantastic at Hawthorne. 4-IT'S BOBS BUSINESS ran a good third behind Cortese in his last, while at a good price. He will be hoping for a contested pace ahead of him in here as the added sixteenth should only help.

A competitive field with no real standout. Off the class relief, I'll look to 6-SHIP IT as she makes her second start of the meet. The distance suits and the drop from the Starter race in her last is a big move. Let's see if we can catch a price on her. 4-DIXIE PENNY has been claimed out of her last two, running second in both of those races. She had to chase speed in each as she's another that will benefit from the added distance. 2-FIT AND FAMOUS won on the front end in her last as she steps up a bit for this spot. There are a couple of others with early speed in here as she may be best off rating today.

I don't know if A Real Hero can be beaten today but there won't be any value for a horse that has been inconsistent at times. Just looking for a price as I'll go to 3-RAINY MOUNTAIN for Frank Kirby. She has raced almost solely at Hawthorne, making many of her starts against tougher. She has been working well toward her return as this is the lowest level she's raced at in her career. 4-A REAL HERO has been right there in her last three and should be once again. She will need a little pace to chase but any of her last three starts should put her right there. 5-HEAVENLY HASH has run her best at Hawthorne, but has disappointed a bit this season. She can show a bit more early speed at times as I'm hoping she is asked early.

Hard to knock 6-PHILIPSBURG as he always competes, and often at different levels. He has tactical speed as he may be forced to rate in here with the speed that is to his inside. 3-LAST MINUTE ran a big race in his second career start, winning going away. He has worked well toward his return and should be on the gas from the start. 2-ALL ABOUT TONITE has been claimed in his last two starts and steps up to run protected today. He is another that can show speed and I like that he was claimed back into the Rodriguez barn.

Let's look for an upset in the finale as there's a few in here with the potential to show early speed. If the pace is honest, and contested, maybe 6-CODE RUNNER can pick off horses late, while at a price. He has run well in his two starts on the year and likes this surface. Let's see if he can save some ground early and run on late. 1-DOUBLE THUNDER has also had success at Hawthorne, never running worst than second in seven starts here. He rated close in his last and battled to a win. I expect him to press and contend once again.2-MCMONEY was claimed out of his last as he was a good winner in that spot. He has posted solid speed figures and could be a wise claim for the Banks barn.

I’m going to go against the obvious in this race. 3-FRONTIER MARSHALL drops into maiden claimers for the first time. He’s been training well for his first race since October. Gets first Lasix for this trip. Might be able to surprise. 6-RED RIZZLER, the logical favorite, makes his third start of the year. He just missed in last after pressing the pace throughout. He is a 5-year-old making his 16th start as a maiden, however. He just might be vulnerable. 2-MARK MY MEMORY couldn’t keep up with the winner of last but he raced in second all the way around. That was his first race since September. Could prove even tougher this time around.

6-MISS MIKOS ran well in her four starts here last year. They tried her at Oaklawn for one start in March without any luck. But she has been training well since. They could have a hard time catching her. 3-ABSOLUTE MIRACLE is another that raced well here last year. She was given one race this year, on turf, and she ran as poorly as she did when they tried her on the turf here in 2024. She’s had at least five drills since that February race, however, and she’ll be back on the right surface today. Guessing she’ll be pressing the pace today. 2-CHIQUITA REINA ships in from Oaklawn. Unlike the top pair, she lacks early speed. However, the pace of this race could easily set up for her late run.

Love the way 6-LUNDBERG won his last race at Oaklawn. He has shown some ability from off the pace in the past but he has generally been better on the front end. Last showed that the pace didn’t matter. However, he looks like the best of the speed in this race. Might take this from flag fall to finish. 1-DANZA TAXI looks like the only one capable of pressuring top choice in the early going. All but one of his races were at Fairmount. The other race was here in the River Bear stakes last year, a race where he finished third. He has six wins from 11 career starts. Wouldn’t be too surprised if he added another score to that total. 2-CORTESE, 3-KING ANTHONY, and 5-VICTORIOUS VANDA are all likely to come running late. If the early pace is heated, any of the closers can win.

Every member of this field likes the front end. 4-DIXIE PENNY might be the only one capable of coming from out of it. She’s had two local races, both this meet, and got claimed from each of them. She finished second in both of them. Takes blinkers off. Maybe she’ll pull it all together for her newest outfit. 2-FIT AND FAMOUS could turn out to be the best of the speed. I don’t think she’s the quickest. Lost Sunset might hold that honor, but she looked sharp wiring the field in her last at Fair Grounds. She wired the fields in a couple of Iowa-bred stakes over the last couple years and she might be headed back there after this race but she is certainly capable of leading all the way in this one. 6-SHIP IT races on the pace at times and tries to come from out of it at others. She hasn’t been very effective at either lately but with the drop to the lowest level of her career she could be a top contender.

 4-A REAL HERO has been good for a long time when she races at the right level and she’s perfectly spotted in this race. She finished in the money in six of her last races when facing similar rivals, winning one time. This field did come up awfully easy. She should earn a trip back to the winner’s circle. 7-RUNNER’S HEAT finished 2024 with a victory and came back to finish third in her first race of 2025. She should be fitter in her second start of the year. Could give A Real Hero a run for the money. 3-RAINY MOUNTAIN faces her easiest field ever. She’s making her first start since July but she has had five strong recent drills in preparation for return. Wouldn’t ignore.

What makes this race especially tough is that so many of the runners love the front end. I’m going to go with 6-PHILIPSBURG. He just loves this track and he doesn’t back down from a challenge. He might not be the absolute quickest of the bunch but he is going to be right there throughout and he just might prevail. 3-LAST MINUTE obviously has some issues. He had only one race at two, and then took 10 months off before making his singe start at three. It’s now almost 10 months since his last race. He looked like a monster winning his lone start last year, crushing the field by nine lengths. He is likely the quickest and might be that good but I have reservations. 7-PROFESSOR HIGGINS is the only one in the race that wants nothing to do with the early lead. He’ll save his best move for late. Would like his chances better if this race was at six furlongs but he isn’t without a chance at five and a half.

1-DOUBLE THUNDER wasn’t an impressive winner in his first start of the meet but he did live up to his favoritism. His local form last year was even better. He’s had seven local starts, winning twice and finishing second five times. He’s likely to be racing right off the early lead once again and could once again take over late. 8-EUCLID AVENUE could outlast the rest of the speed. He just wired the field at Oaklawn, fighting for the lead every step of the way. The speed figure he generated in that race was the highest of his career. A repeat of that effort places him squarely in the hunt. 3-GLOBAL EMPIRE needed last. He’s taking on a bit easier here. He won his final two starts of 2024, beating company similar to this. Figures to be a major player once again. 2-MCMONEY could close the fastest of all. He’s moving up in class after getting claimed from last but this likely brisk pace of this race sets up for his late run. Can make it two in a row.