Handicapper Tips & Picks

Of the shorter priced runners in this field, will take on #2 LUCY'S LOOKING LEFT based on race shape and current form. They could be forced to contest the early pace, a position where #5 LILY'S CREED has the edge in that role a Q1 Square. 

The race shape and dynamic should further upgrade (their E. Rodriguez stablemate #1 NO NANETTE NO - one that is seeking for the belated win since last April under similar conditions and with J. Felix aboard, the rider returning here to suggest intent for already live connections. 

#2 STARINA fits solidly in the role of the favorite in this race. She returns under similar allowance conditions for the second start of the meet, turning in a competitive B- OptixGRADE making a MOVE behind a Very Slow early pace, a race that assisted the 15-1 upset winner, Curls Nite Out with first run. With form, figures and class checking the right boxes, similar looks to set up with race shape. The early pace should be honest with the two Q1 Circles #3 ELODINE and #6 LEMON BOMB above the ParLine (Standard) and kept honest bringing in first call early speed from Surface/Distance with #5 CODE OF CONDUCT. 

That scenario allows #2 STARINA as a Q2 Square first run on the first flight; an edge from the Q4, off-pace group the Square (measure of finishing ability in relationship to each other in today's race shape) compared to #4 PANTHERA and for Surface/Distance #1 TWO HEARTED. 

Fitting to see the first turf race of the season a maiden race as it will be the first for one of the individuals as well. The first theme could further carry to FTS #3 WILD DREAMS for Rivelli/Loveberry connections that require little introduction overall, but since were here...however falls into a smaller sample in this category 20% win 40% ITM. Rivelli with FTS MCL runners on the turf at HAW it is a smaller sample of 3, all out of the money with two in turf sprints all racing at odds of 4.7-1.

#4 MARY MOONGLOW has the edge on recency and experience of the two Rivelli runners. In terms of class they make the change to MCL company a reasonable move after the two starts and long layoff lines in between. Each start has been similar with the TROUBLE_S and RUSH looking for the lead and project similar here - at the same time much improve overall and with the connections in play does not project price compensation. In terms of trip they are likely to find company in the role on the leas with #6 MIDNIGHT MARY in the field, one that has show early speed and while losing ground late has been a part of Very Fast and Fast early paces. 

#5 ROSE'S WISH present value as they should be overlooked. The recency is a positive as well as the other further changes. This marks the return to MCL company and the sprint distance, conditions where they have been competitive in the past. As far as the surface switch, the move to the TURF has been a long time coming and based on the visuals even going as far back as the debut last July, they should take to the grass and could even find the surface switch their ideal. 

#8 NIGHT BLUE should appreciate the return to the TURF and with the recency edge here as well along with the strong figures recorded from the stateside debut in September 2023 as well as pairing with a subtle trip last month on the FON dirt. 

Class is a rise from the recent series of races for 5yo mare #7 WAHIDA OF MARDEN though one that has done their better running on the turf and throughout those races starting back last year has yet to find a MCL turf sprint. 

When looking at the Plot it might not suggest it would be wise, to play against the projected favorites, #2 STAR OF KODIAK and especially #5 ROTARY DIAL, though perhaps the pace in here, will not make the race. The Red PlotFit suggests some questions with what is "on paper" to take a deeper dive. 

#6 STINGY could be part of the early pace - they return for this second start of the meet as a flow-upgrade X_FLOW from the 4/24 race around two turns. That should carry conditioning into this race and drawn outside of ROTARY DIAL can find the right trip as the pressor not the pressed. 

#4 TRY TRY AGAIN makes their second start (PREP) of the meet where improvement can be projected. They WASTED a lot of energy prerace, chased WIDE early and overall did not appear to be at their best on the day. The addition of front wraps returning from the layoff was another tell they might have needed the race and something to look for today. 

#3 UNCAPTURED PULSE is often the type that races into form and brings that for the third start with the slight and positive addition of ground. The rider change also could further intent as Ulloa has been aboard in the past, including the 26-1 upset win last June. 

A return to the turf for the seasoned runners and the first two turn turf race of the year.

Started the first turf race with a Rivelli runner and keeping the theme while making a longshot case for #4 TEMPER TANTRUM in this spot. Some price compensation is required with the change in class, though in terms of back class and current ability they fit on par with buried form. Going into the 4/24 race, the dynamic (Plot) did not set up for them in the way it should for the favorite and vulnerable on that front. The Plot position is not overly favorable today (the need for price compensation) though buried with the recency form while return to a course where they have had success in the past, a second start of the current form cycle and still competitive noting the two wins on the year at TP races at a similar par and just slightly higher purse. 

Under similar conditions, timing and placement #3 SHADY MCGEE was able to find the right trip and reasonable to look for similar exiting a contentious series of races (much higher par) at the FG to start of the year. As far as those races, they broke SLOG, something of a pattern throughout their career should be expected today though ran on posting figures in line with last season to suggest they are not "off form" something that could be assessed when just looking at running lines and finishing positions. 

As far as some of the layoff returning runners: #7 BAKENEKO fits this level though in terms of draw and trip that could be the main hurdle here. The layoff is noted and for a horse that has not has this long of a break and another factor to consider on value. #6 K P ALL SYSTEMS GO has the layoff return races in the past and for this barn - a barn at the time of this analysis looking for their first win on the year while noting 55% of the runners finishing ITM. They hold back class, a stakes runner early in their career and now as an older horse has found where they fit and a capable type. The form from the last two seasons also noted and does appear the front wrap removal a sign and something to monitor here. 

#1 PURPLE OCTOPUS could find early pace contention in this spot, though appears the dominant front runners (Q1 Square, S/D above ParLine) and with the rail draw, return to J. Loveberry along with current form and figures appears competitive looking for that N2 win. 

While #7 IDIOSYNCRASIES does not "need the lead" their hand could be forced in this case to contest the pace to compete in another scenario allows PURPLE OCTOPUS an easier trip/pace upfront. The contentious pace on the other hand should assist #6 MIDNIGHT ROYAL (Q4 Square) with their trip. The class and distance should work for them returning to this circuit, noting the prior 2 race starts were both in allowance company - one 5.5f off the layoff and the other at a route, tough to hold that against them with the changes here. 

#2 SHAMAN SEZ appeared to need the race (PREP) returning from a 70-day layoff going back to the first part of the meet. The bring in fitness from the start, steady works since and for today's race some upside with the slight addition of ground as a positive, and rider change with I. Hernandez aboard. 

#1 CAIRO DREAM is a contender of their form and figures along with class returning to Hawthorne. They broke their maiden dominantly (B+ TWO_MOVES, GALLOP+) over this course at the 5.5f distance late in the meet. The placement and confidence booster at the time looked to be the race to build off while entered at KEE in allowance company, though twice scratched from those events before showing up at CD in the off-turf race and looking for the two turns on the turf this year at the FG. Finding those conditions in Feb they has a subtle trip from the rail and similar trip in March at TP while looking for the STRETCH back out in distance - ideal here today. O. Hernandez can land live mounts for this barn with success under similar conditions on this circuit in the past. 

Of the Block runners, CAIRO DREAM brings upside while looking to establish herself this year and going forward, something that has been in play for stablemate #10 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD; certainly a capable type though in terms of pairing value and race shape (Plot) they appear lacking on that front with the ML while also giving up recency. 

#6 MISS RIVER RAT still bromes with that group despite running under J. DeVito and looking while also giving up recency they "Plot" well as a Q2 Square for today's race shape - a similar position noted for CAIRO DREAM.

#8 QUEEN JUDITH should find this circuit the right one to compete at the allowance level for their abilities. She broke her maiden on debut at KD and rom there in stakes company for the rest of the juvenile season and took on some tougher spots while in KY including the three start this year while returning from the extended 564-day layoff for the change in connections. 

Route runners open the day as there's not much pace in this race. 5-LILY'S CREED has speed, stretches out, and runs for a barn having a fine meet. 2-LUCY'S LOOKIN LEFT rated closed behind a slow pace in her last. She likely gets that stalking trip once again. 1-NO NANNETTE NO should be right with Lucy's Lookin Left early. It's just a matter of if the pace comes back.

There's enough pace to chase, which should help the chances of both 2-STARINA and 4-PANTHERA. Starina rallied late here on opening day for a near miss. She's fresh coming into here and should be tough. Panthera makes her first start of the meet. Rosin runners have been solid and the price should be right. 6-LEMON BOMB has speed, but doesn't need the lead to win. She did stretch out for her last and hung around late in the lane.

First turf race of the meet with sprinters going 5 furlongs. Looking to 3-WILD DREAMS on top as she debuts for Rivelli. She gets Lasix and has worked quickly in the morning. Expect to see speed at the start. 2-ISLAND JIVE has a solid turf sprint at Canterbury last August. She has worked consistently toward her return and could be a decent price. 8-NIGHT BLUE tries the turf sprint as she figures to rate and rally. The outside draw may benefit her as she looks to find good early position.

Not a ton of pace in here as 5-ROTARY DIAL may be able to rate a bit closer early and hang around late. Gonzalez has ridden very well and this distance suits. 2-STAR OF KODIAK got a perfect setup last out as he was able to rate and rally. The barn has had a great meet as he loves this Hawthorne strip. 6-STINGY went two turns in his last and hung in late into the lane before tiring. The move back to the sprint should benefit his chances.

A highly competitive field in here as basically any horse can win. 7-BAKENEKO likes to rate close but doesn't need the lead to win. He makes his first start of the year for a barn that has had everything ready. 4-TEMPER TANTRUM fits at this distance and got the benefit of a race here a few weeks ago. He figures to rate mid-pack early and rally late. 6-K P ALL SYSTEMS GO ships in for today's race as he is well spotted. He could sneak off at a bit of a price but should be charging late.

There's a few that could get bunched up early but none committed to the front. Looking to 6-MIDNIGHT ROYAL as he makes his first start of the year off a nice workout pattern. He has tactical speed for a barn that has gotten off to a nice start. 7-IDIOSYNCRASIES has some speed as he steps up off the win in here. He could be the most likely to try to make the top early, which could be his best way to go. 1-PURPLE OCTOPUS has been second in his last three starts, all as the favorite. He'll take action again, it's just a matter of if he can get over the hump for a win.

A tremendous race closes the day. I could make a case for any in here. Will look to 6-MISS RIVER RAT on top off her turf record, combined with her recent work tab. She shouldn't be too far back at any time and has been good here at Hawthorne. 10-TRAIL RIDGE ROAD is another that has been good on grass as she is also working very well toward her first start of the year. She may have to sit a bit further back early but should be charging late. 2-GO LEE ANN GO just missed on the turf here last fall. She has the ability to rally late and could sneak in at a price.

5-LILY’S CREED is by no means a lock in this race but she split a better field in her first start of the meet and she possesses the highest average speed figures of any in here. Should be able to secure an easy lead with the stretch in distance. Might not get caught. 2-LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT just finished second in similar. She really doesn’t own much speed but the rest of the field, with the exception of top choice, possesses even less. She could be tracking top choice all the way around. 1-NO NANNETTE NO did press the early pace in last but the early fractions she was chasing, :26 and :50.4 won’t win many speed contests.

2-STARINA is probably the one to beat. She just missed in her first race of the meet and also ran well here in two previous starts. She looks like the best closer in a race filled with early speed. Beaten favorite of last can make amends. 5-CODE OF CONDUCT won her local debut surprisingly easily. That was only her second start. She came from far back in a Fonner sprint in her debut but she led every step of the way to graduate in last. Her speed figures imply that she might be slower than many in here but we might not have seen the best of her in her limited starts. 6-LEMON BOMB, another beaten favorite, did display good speed to lead much of the way in her local debut and first start for her barn but she ran out of gas late. However, that was her first two-turn start of the year. Might be better prepared to get the distance with that race under her.

Interesting group for our first turf race of the year. The two Rivelli-trained runners might draw the lion’s share of the wagering and might deserve it but I looked in another direction. 8-NIGHT BLUE has had only two races in the US, one last year and one in 2025, but her race last year was a maiden special on the Del Mar turf and she closed with a rush to just miss. This race could be too short for her but she has the most turf experience and the figure she generated on turf was far higher than any achieved by any of her rivals. 3-WILD DREAMS has been training very well for her career debut. Her barn scores with a huge 42% winners from first-time starters and probably leads in every relevant category.  She gets the barn’s most regular rider in the irons. 4-MARY MOONGLOW, the other Rivelli-trained runner, has had two races, both on dirt, and she ran well in both of them. She doesn’t have a great turf pedigree, few in here do, but she does have speed and she could be right there throughout. There’s a good chance 6-MIDNIGHT MARY will get the early lead. Just not sure how long she’ll stay there.

2-STAR OF KODIAK gets the nod. He was favored in many of his races last year and often lived up to the challenge. He was favored in his first start of this meet and rewarded his backers with a victory. The runner that finished second that day came back to win his next. He’s a versatile runner with the ability to win on or off the pace. Can make it two in a row. 5-ROTARY DIAL figures big time. He finished second in his last three, by ever decreasing margins. He was narrowly beaten in last, his local debut. The trip over the track and the longer distance of this race could work in his favor. 6-STINGY completes the sprint-route-sprint cycle. After winning his first start of the year and his first race for this barn, he finished up the track in his last two. But he is taking on a much easier group than the hard-knocking veterans he faced in last and doing it at what could be a better distance. 

Wow! Tough race. Can make a case for all in here. But going to take a shot with 3-SHADY MCGEE. He has been in poor form this year but he has been racing regularly so we know he’s fit. He could possibly be the best closer in this speed-filled field. He had past local success when racing against similar. Might get up in time. I would have picked 10-WICKED SUPRISE if he had an inside draw. He was in great form when 2024 ended and will probably be favored to pick up where he left off. However, he’s a front-running type and there is a plethora of other speed to his inside. He could have a tough time putting them away and finishing with something left to hold off the closers while he’s making his first start since October. 4-TEMPER TANTRUM has earned more on turf than any of his rivals and he does get the team of Rivelli and Loveberry in his corner. But his last few turf races left a lot to be desired. 9-MR UNIVERSE always met tougher. They thought enough of his ability to run him in the Grade 1 Bruce Duchossois a few years back. But he hasn’t raced since 2022 and he’ll be starting for a new barn for the first time. Still, he likes to come on late and the pace of this race certainly seems likely to set up for him.

Will 1-PURPLE OCTOPUS finally get his second win? It does seem likely. He finished second in last three, all as the odds-on favorite. Am expecting him to press the pace and maybe outlast the rest of the speed. 7-IDIOSYNCRASIES could offer the main challenge. Recent grad was right there every step of the way in his local debut and managed to get up right as they were nearing the wire. He was claimed from that start by a barn that wins with 45% of their first-time claims. Figures to be right there throughout once again. 5-HAWAIIAN HIDE AWAY makes his first start in nearly a year. All five of his races last year were routes. But think he might be able the only one in this field that might possibly come on late in this sprint. 

Wide-open race. I think the pace of this race will be pretty heated so I’m going with a runner that comes from out of it. 8-QUEEN JUDITH fits that description well. Ignore her recent races. They were contested on synthetic. She’s at her best when racing on the lawn. A little concerned that this race might be a bit too short for her but do expect her to finish with good energy. 7-WANDA STRONG hasn’t had many poor efforts on turf and she’s been a bit of a specialist at this seven and a half furlong distance. Although she has been successful when coming from off the pace, she could be sent right up to the front end, which was the case in her last two wins. 4-CAT ATTACK also loves the front end. She won four of her eight races at the distance. 6-MISS RIVER RAT can finish with a rush. She finished in the money in her last nine races, winning twice. The pace will set up. Can get there.