Handicapper Tips & Picks

Of the shorter priced runners in this field, will take on #2 LUCY'S LOOKING LEFT based on race shape and current form. They could be forced to contest the early pace, a position where #5 LILY'S CREED has the edge in that role a Q1 Square. 

The race shape and dynamic should further upgrade (their E. Rodriguez stablemate #1 NO NANETTE NO - one that is seeking for the belated win since last April under similar conditions and with J. Felix aboard, the rider returning here to suggest intent for already live connections. 

#2 STARINA fits solidly in the role of the favorite in this race. She returns under similar allowance conditions for the second start of the meet, turning in a competitive B- OptixGRADE making a MOVE behind a Very Slow early pace, a race that assisted the 15-1 upset winner, Curls Nite Out with first run. With form, figures and class checking the right boxes, similar looks to set up with race shape. The early pace should be honest with the two Q1 Circles #3 ELODINE and #6 LEMON BOMB above the ParLine (Standard) and kept honest bringing in first call early speed from Surface/Distance with #5 CODE OF CONDUCT. 

That scenario allows #2 STARINA as a Q2 Square first run on the first flight; an edge from the Q4, off-pace group the Square (measure of finishing ability in relationship to each other in today's race shape) compared to #4 PANTHERA and for Surface/Distance #1 TWO HEARTED. 

Fitting to see the first turf race of the season a maiden race as it will be the first for one of the individuals as well. The first theme could further carry to FTS #3 WILD DREAMS for Rivelli/Loveberry connections that require little introduction overall, but since were here...however falls into a smaller sample in this category 20% win 40% ITM. Rivelli with FTS MCL runners on the turf at HAW it is a smaller sample of 3, all out of the money with two in turf sprints all racing at odds of 4.7-1.

#4 MARY MOONGLOW has the edge on recency and experience of the two Rivelli runners. In terms of class they make the change to MCL company a reasonable move after the two starts and long layoff lines in between. Each start has been similar with the TROUBLE_S and RUSH looking for the lead and project similar here - at the same time much improve overall and with the connections in play does not project price compensation. In terms of trip they are likely to find company in the role on the leas with #6 MIDNIGHT MARY in the field, one that has show early speed and while losing ground late has been a part of Very Fast and Fast early paces. 

#5 ROSE'S WISH present value as they should be overlooked. The recency is a positive as well as the other further changes. This marks the return to MCL company and the sprint distance, conditions where they have been competitive in the past. As far as the surface switch, the move to the TURF has been a long time coming and based on the visuals even going as far back as the debut last July, they should take to the grass and could even find the surface switch their ideal. 

#8 NIGHT BLUE should appreciate the return to the TURF and with the recency edge here as well along with the strong figures recorded from the stateside debut in September 2023 as well as pairing with a subtle trip last month on the FON dirt. 

Class is a rise from the recent series of races for 5yo mare #7 WAHIDA OF MARDEN though one that has done their better running on the turf and throughout those races starting back last year has yet to find a MCL turf sprint. 

When looking at the Plot it might not suggest it would be wise, to play against the projected favorites, #2 STAR OF KODIAK and especially #5 ROTARY DIAL, though perhaps the pace in here, will not make the race. The Red PlotFit suggests some questions with what is "on paper" to take a deeper dive. 

#6 STINGY could be part of the early pace - they return for this second start of the meet as a flow-upgrade X_FLOW from the 4/24 race around two turns. That should carry conditioning into this race and drawn outside of ROTARY DIAL can find the right trip as the pressor not the pressed. 

#4 TRY TRY AGAIN makes their second start (PREP) of the meet where improvement can be projected. They WASTED a lot of energy prerace, chased WIDE early and overall did not appear to be at their best on the day. The addition of front wraps returning from the layoff was another tell they might have needed the race and something to look for today. 

#3 UNCAPTURED PULSE is often the type that races into form and brings that for the third start with the slight and positive addition of ground. The rider change also could further intent as Ulloa has been aboard in the past, including the 26-1 upset win last June. 

A return to the turf for the seasoned runners and the first two turn turf race of the year.

Started the first turf race with a Rivelli runner and keeping the theme while making a longshot case for #4 TEMPER TANTRUM in this spot. Some price compensation is required with the change in class, though in terms of back class and current ability they fit on par with buried form. Going into the 4/24 race, the dynamic (Plot) did not set up for them in the way it should for the favorite and vulnerable on that front. The Plot position is not overly favorable today (the need for price compensation) though buried with the recency form while return to a course where they have had success in the past, a second start of the current form cycle and still competitive noting the two wins on the year at TP races at a similar par and just slightly higher purse. 

Under similar conditions, timing and placement #3 SHADY MCGEE was able to find the right trip and reasonable to look for similar exiting a contentious series of races (much higher par) at the FG to start of the year. As far as those races, they broke SLOG, something of a pattern throughout their career should be expected today though ran on posting figures in line with last season to suggest they are not "off form" something that could be assessed when just looking at running lines and finishing positions. 

As far as some of the layoff returning runners: #7 BAKENEKO fits this level though in terms of draw and trip that could be the main hurdle here. The layoff is noted and for a horse that has not has this long of a break and another factor to consider on value. #6 K P ALL SYSTEMS GO has the layoff return races in the past and for this barn - a barn at the time of this analysis looking for their first win on the year while noting 55% of the runners finishing ITM. They hold back class, a stakes runner early in their career and now as an older horse has found where they fit and a capable type. The form from the last two seasons also noted and does appear the front wrap removal a sign and something to monitor here. 

#1 PURPLE OCTOPUS could find early pace contention in this spot, though appears the dominant front runners (Q1 Square, S/D above ParLine) and with the rail draw, return to J. Loveberry along with current form and figures appears competitive looking for that N2 win. 

While #7 IDIOSYNCRASIES does not "need the lead" their hand could be forced in this case to contest the pace to compete in another scenario allows PURPLE OCTOPUS an easier trip/pace upfront. The contentious pace on the other hand should assist #6 MIDNIGHT ROYAL (Q4 Square) with their trip. The class and distance should work for them returning to this circuit, noting the prior 2 race starts were both in allowance company - one 5.5f off the layoff and the other at a route, tough to hold that against them with the changes here. 

#2 SHAMAN SEZ appeared to need the race (PREP) returning from a 70-day layoff going back to the first part of the meet. The bring in fitness from the start, steady works since and for today's race some upside with the slight addition of ground as a positive, and rider change with I. Hernandez aboard. 

#1 CAIRO DREAM is a contender of their form and figures along with class returning to Hawthorne. They broke their maiden dominantly (B+ TWO_MOVES, GALLOP+) over this course at the 5.5f distance late in the meet. The placement and confidence booster at the time looked to be the race to build off while entered at KEE in allowance company, though twice scratched from those events before showing up at CD in the off-turf race and looking for the two turns on the turf this year at the FG. Finding those conditions in Feb they has a subtle trip from the rail and similar trip in March at TP while looking for the STRETCH back out in distance - ideal here today. O. Hernandez can land live mounts for this barn with success under similar conditions on this circuit in the past. 

Of the Block runners, CAIRO DREAM brings upside while looking to establish herself this year and going forward, something that has been in play for stablemate #10 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD; certainly a capable type though in terms of pairing value and race shape (Plot) they appear lacking on that front with the ML while also giving up recency. 

#6 MISS RIVER RAT still bromes with that group despite running under J. DeVito and looking while also giving up recency they "Plot" well as a Q2 Square for today's race shape - a similar position noted for CAIRO DREAM.

#8 QUEEN JUDITH should find this circuit the right one to compete at the allowance level for their abilities. She broke her maiden on debut at KD and rom there in stakes company for the rest of the juvenile season and took on some tougher spots while in KY including the three start this year while returning from the extended 564-day layoff for the change in connections.