Handicapper Tips & Picks

On class, #6 DESSERT FIRST has the edge making her first start this season at the $5k N3 level compared to the others in this field. The drop is less concerning as she has run for $5k in the past and appears placed where she can compete and with the change noted in form cycle, third off paired with the cutback in distance from the route last month with additional timing between starts.

Looking at the Surface/Distance Plot, she can work a trip tracking behind the first (Q1/3) flight and a strong finish in today’s group with the large Q2 Square.

With that said there are things to support others such as #2 FAST N HAPPY with some of the highest recorded figures in the field. She took the drop to this level on 4/20 and moved up with some subtle adversity earning B- OptixGRADE on the day. When looking at Standard Plot (current form) FAST N HAPPY with a tactical first run position on DESSERT FIRST.

Tactically both #1 LITTLE SASS and #5 HONOR HIS HALF with the Q1 position should be setting the pace. The added ground along with the rail while LITTLE SASS lightly raced could still present a move forward and especially in this timing second off the layoff.

Alexander Bendezu back aboard  LITTLE SASS today topped off all riders around the country picking up 3 wins (Lucy’s Looking Left, Star of Kodiak and Midnight Mary) on Thursday.

#3 LUNARCHY and JOCELYN fit the longshot role in this race certainly on the win end, though bring in current form with LUNARCHY showing improving OptixGRADES with each start this season while JOCELYN third off the layoff returns to a sprint and keying off the PREP back on 3/30 from the layoff should be sitting on her peak effort. 

With both #2 KIND KISMET and #3 MARY’S BOON returning from extended layoffs and overall lacking a strong edge on class, speed and pace while projected to take the majority of the wagering result could look toward others in this field.

The pace is a tougher read with the layoff lines and even with some change in distances from others in this field. The Simonovich pair fit complementary as #5 NADJAMEANSBUSINESS brings in early speed and should be on display once again while #6 CATHOLIC SUE can rate and finish (Standard Q4 Square) a trip from off the pace that is entirely possible. She steps up from the recent $5k N2 races though catching a higher par and route distance at TP and the route here 10-days ago first off the 62-day break should give her all the fitness and from that Fast early and Very Fast late race shape. 

#4 JOYZELLA also with a solid late kick and form on her side as well. She find class relief with the change in claiming race and par from the higher $25k N2 event last week. The change in post could be a further positive moving off the rail from the most recent two starts and forcing their hand to contest the pace last week, a change in her runstyle.

Starting the analysis with projected favorite #3 ANOTHER MYSTERY a horse that fits with all the credentials on class, speed - even their form from this year on par and especially back in the hands of O. Mojica, a rider that fits this horse perfectly. In fact if there were an award for best fitting jockey and horse they are in the nominations; their first time together was the Black Tie Affair stakes win in 2022 and from there six other times no worse than place with four wins over this course last year. The one “mystery” is the distance shortening up to the 7.5f for this race, something they have yet to do and notable if for nothing else to include when assessing value.

With ANOTHER MYSTERY as a solid closer, the opportunity (when looking at Standard) for #1 STREET WARRIOR to try and scamper clear from the rail and first turf as they show up off the layoff. While they are making that surface switch, they have shown “surface versatility” from the physical action standpoint.

There are others that can contest the pace and push the pace, though might try and track for first run. #5 LAMPLIGHTER JACK showed a different dimension in their most recent start though for this race they might not be effective with that tactic here and using their early speed as shown for today’s Plot position in Q1, try to maintain position, save ground and look for first run. #4 BAL A KAZOO can find a similar trip, while also lacking recency returning from the 190-day break, the prime hurdle.

That includes #6 TOWERING STORM one that must improve in the speed figure department and while they are lightly raced, still a 5yo older horse with positives showing back up on this circuit and the turf and from a lateral change in terms of par from the races on the year at FG. 

Looking at the Plot the first thing that jumps out is the Sun Contention paired with the high SpeedRate and shown visually with more than half of the field above the ParLine. From a race shape standpoint #7 WHISKEY OR WINE stands out with that dynamic looking for an off-the-pace trip as a Q4 Square. In terms of form, speed and class they fit on par and clever claim for the connections back in March for $8k at TAM. That B- effort was recorded under a same par as today and should hold fitness with the connections racing first off the claim for $25k and higher par last month with the WIDE trip as well.

In terms of pace, #5 VALIANT WEST also can find the right trip though coming out of the sprints and above the ParLine is another that will be keeping the pace honest without needing the lead. Their form over this course and distance stacks up on par noting they were running in a higher allowance class last season, though should get attention with the two recent speed figures. #4 T LAW falls into a similar Plot position and shape while brining in buried form and positive second off form cycle. Going back to last season they consistently held their form at this $25k N2 claiming level. While coming up shorter on the win end there was a B OptixGRADE effort recorded at the level and slightly higher par back on 6/23. 

This race is one of the most competitive races on the card and a contender for most competitive on the day as there is not a horse in this group where a strong case can be made against.

#3 CHANNEL WON has their age and recent patterns of layoff lines as some concern while tough to know given their overall record competitive races over this course and distance and pairing up with J. Loveberry the two holding success under similar conditions over the FG turf sprinting early last year. The layoff return also noted for #8 GRAND HIDEAWAY one that otherwise fits and holds a win at this level course and distance from a common race with CHANNEL WON last year on 9/19, those two finishing 1-2 on the day.

#4 MAHONEY ROAD also with solid form over this course and distance going back to last year with consistent effort B/B- while at the higher N1 allowance company, par and purse. Intent should be in play coming back in this spot, second off the claim and clever timing with the WIDE trip and appeared PREP on 4/27 – a similar “second off” for cycle pattern assisted Temper Tantrum with the win on the turf on the Thursday card. They bring in tactical speed without being a need the lead type as the early speed should present from the inside (#2 WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK) and outside (#10 DINO’S DIXIE) where tracking close and looking for first run could be the key.

Looking outside that group to get creative: #9 YO DAWG comes into this race with the edge on form and recorded with competitive efforts this season at a higher par and fitness in this third start of the cycle. They are versatile to handle the shift back to the turf, the surface where they started out their career and in solid hands with Mojica sticking aboard. #1 JET FLIGHT is a bigger reach as they must improve while making jump up in class and just a second start, a belated second start on the turf, the surface of their debut – 8f MSW here in the summer of 2023. Number wise they have efforts that fit and in terms of current form also third off, progressive in this form cycle and a front wrap removal could present a sign of intent to look for here. 

The conditions of this race, a N2 in 2025 open up the condition where some could fit a N1 on the year with the layoffs and in that case could be taken as racing above conditions though exiting higher par events that is not necessarily the case here. That is noted for #6 CODE RUNNER with the efforts this season, looking at the Past 3 Runlines, a horse that has consistently recorded figures on par for today’s race while lacking “red” at the same time to support on current form. In terms of race shape, they should have an honest pace with the Sun Contention and 38 SpeedRate with their off the pace runstyle and Plot position as a Q4 Square.

#5 FAMILY TRADITION also looking for the first win on the year and making the change returning to the two turn distance for this race. They had some adversity on 5/1 with the SLOG, TROUBLE_S from the break and KICKBACK behind horses while showing some interest making a WIDE MOVE to note outside of the outcome. They could look to show more early speed in today’s race to avoid kickback again and based on the Plot position well above the ParLine sitting in a Q2 island.

#1 TWO COOKIE RULE brings in progressive form this season with the improving numbers and pair of place finishes under similar conditions and slightly higher par. The rail draw with the other Q1/Q3 runners must be considered on pace and trip with fair odds required on the win end. The longer odds should be in play once again for #8 FLYING SAMURAI and a legitimate longshot though brings in upside as trainer C. Ryan has allowed them to race into shape and while the Grades and speed figures are coded in “red” they lack any “red” in the OptixNOTES Keywords and in fact present an upgrade the STRETCH/PREP from 4/3 and X_FLOW in both the 4/13 and 4/24 races. 

In terms of the FTS, #8 SEMPER PRIMUS makes a belated debut noting a scratch from back on 1/25 in a MSW event at OP at the time training holding their own with a stablemate called Oy Gevald one that picked up a pair of minor finishes including a show result behind, Cornucopian. That is noted as they reset and regroup on this circuit and with just two recorded works coming into this race though capable connections and the jockey trainer combination 2-for-2 this season both wins with Vegas Condo for today’s ownership group, Doubledown Stables.

In terms of the jockey trainer combination, H. Robertson and J. Loveberry also with the 2-for-2 record (Miss Mikos and Pasta Salad Rhonda) as they return here with #10 THREE AFLEET for a belated second start. Going back to the debut last year, late in the season with the 10/10 debut a potential excuse with the TROUBLES+ as part of a chain reaction of contact at the break and the layoff that follow. They bring in a steady series of works with a combination of speed and stamina to get race ready. MSW returning from a 100+ day layoff at Hawthorne since 2020, 4 wins in 7 starts (575 win, 71 % ITM) with a $2.23 positive ROI.

The debut rider of THREE AFLEET, I. Hernandez shifts to stablemate #7 GABE’S CHOICE for their debut today. The work tab shows drills from last year to support the foundation for this initial start and also have a similar steady pattern with the spacing of the published works along with a mix of speed and stamina. I. Hernandez is also a live rider for this barn with prior success and noted on the Thursday card with a live runner in Shamen Sez nearly with the 41-1 upset over Purple Octopus as the race favorite.  

As far as the runners with experience and from the 4/20 common race #1 TAUNTING making their layoff return that day might have been “given” the race with their stablemate Mondogetsbuckets the open length winner on the day. TAUNTING giving an honest B- effort to build off of finishing in a blanket for the minors along with #3 MELLIFLUOUS and #6 BRODY also might have required the race on both physical (TROUBLE-) and mental (GATE) fitness with that start under their belt. 

#3 ALADANTE is a longshot to make that type of case for here. They debuted on the turf late last year, a tough spot overall given the level of competition, the lack of experience first out and going the two turn distance while given no favors with the outside draw. That draw played a role in the trip breaking SLOG and racing X_WIDE with some subtle TROUBLE- and showing interest with a MOVE and number wise their highest recorded figure to date. That alone could suggest the turf their ideal surface while bringing in current form for this third start and intent with the form cycle improvements as shown on speed figures and in the OptixNOTES Keywords while also making a key rider change with journeyman A. Santos taking over today.

#2 LONE RETURN could be overlooked off the recent running line, finishing position and overall race record in this spot. They had a legitimate EX – EXCUSE between the stumble out of the gate (TROUBLES+) along with the layoff return timing. The surface also a noted change returning to the turf where they recorded some of their higher figures many of those races in MSW company and at the route distance.  

While #4 BERKUS should appreciate the move back to the turf, they will get attention off the connections alone and still must step up while runners like #6 RED RIZZLER and #8 DYNO WAR should also look to step up with the TURF surface switch from the visuals in their races this season and slightly higher projected odds.

With Hi-5 wagering in the finale the M. Perez duo are longer shots to win with both holding figures on the grass from prior seasons to get in for a minor share and the change in class a clear step up keeping those odds on the higher side while numbers in line with both #7 DOUBLE BURN and #10 TEAM TROY.