Handicapper Tips & Picks

Of the runners with experience #1 DISGUISED DEVIL has the edge over the two 4yo (#3 TRINITY’S PRIZE and #4 KISSES FOR WEEJ) on numbers and overall visuals with the two starts this season. Each of the April races recorded consistent B- efforts and facing solid winners in Smoked (Rivelli) and Kelly’s Girl (Robertson) in those races holding her own.

Their biggest threat appears the two FTS with #2 BUTTONS AND LACE showing up with the recent strong series of works, three recent bullets into this event in capable hands. Boyce/Centeno have been effective overall together on this circuit especially on the dirt and when it comes to FTS together with three all in the money with 1 win, Indyville. Robertson also effective this season and overall with FTS represented here with #5 SAVVY SMILA. She brings in steady works with the mix of speed and stamina to come out race ready. The barn with FTS on this circuit since 3/2020 17% win and 44% ITM though when isolating statebred runners, a smaller sample of three with 2 wins – positive $4.07 ROI. 

The long layoff runners bring upside with #1 WAGGLE PASS despite some gate issues from the first two starts and this belated return not a 4yo, the lone 4yo in the field. She showed run with each and B OptixGRADE at TP (1/24) making a MOVE and strong GALLOP+ after the SLOG. #5 RACING THE LIGHT finding closer to a lateral move returning for this sophomore debut. They showed speed in both with a solid effort on debut, less fancied than their stablemate, She Stopped Short the place finisher last September and for the second start upgraded as the BOS while WIDE tracked by the winner, Square Baby.

Rivelli bringing in a pair for this race both with experience this season and similar speed figures on the duo. #2 ARRIVEDERCI has the added experience and first turf, while picking up a rider change (W. Rodriguez) along with class and the move to the turf all things that could assist here; while #3 WILD DREAMS wheels right back for a second start has the benefit of the turf experience and experience overall. That is likely needed as her debut just last week was GREEN tough to saddle and mentally not as prepared as necessary first out. #6 POLSKA SUE also wheeling back from the 5/8 common race recorded an improved figure on the day and noting for the pair in terms of result chasing the dominant open length pacesetting winner, Midnight Mary.

FTS #4 SIOUX REVENGE as noted in Race 1, with H. Robertson runners on debut on a capable clip and looking at the sample of FTS turf runners a smaller sample of three with 1 win, 1 place both of those runners debuting as 4yo.

#6 RED REGRET debuting for their connections looks to have some run based on the published works and solid series of drills. The barn at Hawthorne debuting runners brings in a smaller 0/7 sample, though tough to apply those runners here as all debuting on the dirt and only one (show finish) was at the MCL. The sample outside of Hawthorne debuting on the turf is 0/9 however all at the MSW level and on speed figures, those runners recorded figures that would fit on par for today’s MCL event, something analytical outside of historical stats to consider. 

This race presents contenders from top to bottom and tough to default to the favorite, the likely favorite in this case #3 REGIMENTAL. While capable, REGIMENTAL does not hold any strong edge as the favorite. Even when looking at their stablemate #2 GENERAL ISSUE some consideration can be given with the change in class and recent WIDE trips with the distance and rider change in play and likely looking to utilize their early speed. That scenario could assist REGIMENTAL with trip and make things a little tougher for #1 SLAVA UKRAINI upfront and even consider #5 STORM’S REFLECTION part of the first flight.

While that pace scenario can develop to assist REGIMENTAL, looking at the Plot that trip should assist the other off pace runners with similar position and shape: #6 ELECTRIC CHARGE brings upside for the level connections back under similar conditions and despite finishing position on 4/17 earned the same B- OptixGRADE as REGIMENTAL those runners in a blanket at the wire behind the longshot (in odds primarily), Alvin. #7 ICE AXE finished behind that first flight in part to in running TROUBLE and upgraded from that 4/17 trip and overall making the class change on the day still presenting that same upside here in the third start of the season. 

#8 CLASSYCOWTOWNLADY showed run on debut projecting to IMPROVE and landing at Hawthorne for the second start and stretch out in distance, had some excuse in running not asked (NO_PUSH) for their best last after the early RUSH and the layoff that followed. The EX – EXCUSE was far more clear in the return last month at HS Indy when taking a legitimate stumble (TROUBLES+) out of the gate and contact while racing inside behind horses started to show late interest and found TROUBLE along the rail in lane.

#5 ELIZA VANCE also projecting to step up with racing from their debut last June and did so with the 8/25 number and effort in the place finish with a game, Takeitaway (Boyce) while racing against open and the barn taking that spot to avoid their stablemate, Rogue Diamond, the filly MSW race on the prior race day – the 8/22 race that #4 MARGARITA BLUEBIRD debuted in. ELIZA VANCE has the benefit of a race this season and that foundation for the second-off stretch out, a timing angle that has been effective for the L. Rivelli runners as of late.

With the stretch out in distance and W. Rodriguez jumping aboard ELIZA VANCE should be forward something that would add more pace to the race and for the others including the group returning from the 4/24 race with both #1 UNKEPT PROMISES and #2 DRAMA SPEAKER both showing early speed that day. #6 COCALINA did not get a chance to run losing their footing out of the gate and taken in hand soon after. She appears fine picking up a rider change with two recorded works since and while she must pick it up overall, there is the foundation from the juvenile campaign along with prior route experience to draw from.

Class is still a question mark for both #3 CATNIP HILL and #7 TRINITYTHREEINONE based on their races to date in MSW though hold the foundation and route experience with fitness on their side.

This is a very competitive race and a case for all eight in this field. That includes #8 FIRST MASAMUNE projected to be the longest shot in the field though a Large Square on the Plot that would not discount, especially in the exotics. Fellow longshot, #7 MALIGATOR lacks recency and early speed, though plenty of races that fit on par and the type that requires the price compensation to take a swing.

Looking at the early pace, #2 GABAGOOL has that position and while there are others in Q1 (#4 RISKY BOY) the Fire Contention is paired with the lower SpeedRate. Trip could be tough again with the rail draw for #1 CHRISTMAS PRESENT though finds different dynamic for this second start of the season (possible front wrap removal as well) where A. Centeno can save ground behind the first flight and could be the key trip with first run.

That first run on rivals #3 ALIBI IKE bringing back in an every other form cycle pattern along with the subtle distance change back to 6f; the distance #6 JET FLIGHT was waiting for returning on 5/1 and passing a turf sprint on Sunday (where they had a look) to run here instead. #5 HATCHET CREEK requires some racing luck to win, price compensation to play though could find that right combination given the depth of this field. 

#9 WRITTEN CONSENT can win right back as she fits today’s race shape Q1/2 Square not the “need the lead” type while showing that on 4/17 with the dominant/B+ BOS win. With that said, she is not overly exciting at a shorter number as the prime knock.

The early pace projects to be honest with both #2 LOST SUNSET and #8 SMILE AT THE STORM out to contest the lead bringing in upside in their own way. LOST SUNSET second off moving inside though does also find a rise in par. SMILE AT THE STORM caught the storm with the WEATHER conditions on 4/29 and lacking/NO_FINISH was slight BOS unable to hold off #5 ELLIE DELI with clever handling from E. Giles and based on the Plot, similar to WRITTEN CONSENT looking for that first run tracking trip.

Trip is key for #3 GO STORMIN GIRL one that sat closer to the early pace than what that race dynamic called for, a scenario that set up for the winner, Dixie Penny. GO STORMIN GIRL while very WIDE on 5/4 also slight WEATHER conditions with rain on the day and upgrade overall and fair value with the assigned ML. That same dynamic noted for #6 LADY ATLANTIC, a longshot to consider as she is not always consistent to pop with a big race, though has it in here and part of the DUEL on 5/4 has continued to progress racing into shape.

#4 AWESOME SUNDAY third off with consistent B- OptixGRADE and positive in OptixNOTES making a CLOSE on 3/27 and followed up with a TROUBLE trip (and TROUBLE_S) making a WIDE MOVE to finish in a BLANKET on 4/13 with the top six together at the wire. Their runstyle (Q4 Square) needing the pace to develop in front of her, something that could be more effective at 6f and while not impossible at 5.5f still requires the racing luck to win and value to play.  

#8 DAPPER DUDE was able to avoid the claim in the main track starts this season and the connections making a belated return to the turf, the ideal surface for this gelding. They debuted on the turf, a winning type effort first out settling for place in a photo and wheeled back for the second start a dominant win over this course and mile distance. They did not return to the Hawthorne turf until last season, those races a higher condition with the allowances and higher claiming where DAPPER DUDE finished off-the-board, though not out of contention, competitive efforts (B-) and figures that fit on par here.

In terms of #1 CARTHAGE CAJUN they project to land a lot of wagering support coming off the recent win, outcomes and connections. Timing along with projected value is the reservation working to win just two weeks ago and takes on a tough bunch. That creates a bigger handicapping factor than the surface switch and lateral class move. 

Value was the key with #2 TEMPER TANTRUM, one that could look for a similar outcome and tracking trip behind projected pacesetters #7 WICKED SURPRISE and #9 BAKENEKO wheeling right back from a similar conditioned race last week. The slight change in distance here could be the edge for #6 SHADY MCGEE a game effort making a late MOVE off COVER for place and progressive OptixGRADES looking at the Past 3 Runlines to set up for a B today.

#3 CITY OF GOD makes a belated return to the turf, a surface versatile type that started their career long on the grass in MSW company at the FG early in the sophomore season. They have yet to run on the grass since joining the M. Quinonez barn though there has then intent already entered this season, sitting on the AE from 5/8, a $12.5k claiming event where they can race protected here – J. Felix assigned that day and holds the call here.

#5 BREAKOUT STAR also making a return to the turf, a versatile type and first turf at Hawthorne. They bring in current form, class relief from the allowance races, a higher par following the claiming win on 3/27, a race with a similar par today.

5yo mare #4 PASTA SALAD RHONDA makes the move to open company and slight rise in par coming off the recent efforts this season with consistent figures and no stranger to the turf and local turf while given a flow upgrade from 4/27, their first start off the claim. 

Hard to overlook the works from 2-BUTTONS AND LACE. The barn wins early, drills are quick and Lasix for debut. 5-SAVVY SMILA is sired by a top Illinois sire and has also worked well. Speed rider in the saddle. 1-DISGUISED DEVIL has run well in both starts. Should take action and be a factor once again.

The gate drill popped for me for 6-RED REGRET. The barn wins early and I expect some early speed. 2-ARRIVEDERCCI has shown speed on dirt but tired late as well. A class drop and shift to grass may help. 1-WAGGLE PASS runs for a barn that posted a good turf race at a price on Sunday. Expect to see her charging late.

Love that 1-SLAVA UKRAINI showed speed last out. That's where he runs best and gets another race with no pace to challenge early. 3-REGIMENTAL chased in his last and ran on late. His trip should be similar and the price will be short. 6-ELECTRIC CHARGE closed some while wide in his last. He probably needed that race and figures to improve for a barn that has had a fine meet.

4-UNKEPT PROMISES is proven at the distance for a barn that has had a nice start to this meet. She should show some speed from the inside. 2-DRAMA SPEAKER was forwardly placed in her last on the stretch and contended into the lane. You may see more stamina from her today. 5-ELIZA VANCE stretches out as she's the question mark in here. She will take action for the connections and figures to be forwardly placed.

4-RISKY BOY tends to run well when fresh. He has tactical speed and should rate close in a race that doesn't have a ton of pace. 5-HATCHET CREEK has run well in all three starts on the meet. He figures to rate mid-pack early and run on in the stretch. 1-CHRISTMAS PRESENT was a good second in his first start of the meet. He likes this track and picks up Centeno once again.

It was a big effort from 9-WRITTEN CONSENT in her last as she rated close in a race lacking pace and drew off in the lane. She figures to stalk the pace here but should benefit from the outside draw. 1-JOLIE RULER was a good winner in her first start of the meet as she got a perfect trip. She's been excellent at Hawthorne and at this distance. 4-AWESOME SUNDAY could be the price play as she has run a pair of decent races. She also likes this surface and should get more pace to chase.

We'll take a shot at a little price here with 6-SHADY MCGEE (IRE) as he's one of a few wheeling back quickly for this race. He ran on late in his last and will benefit from the added distance for a barn that has had an excellent meet. 1-CARTHAGE CAJUN is in from Louisiana for today's race. He was a good winner on dirt in his last but has fine turf form as well. 7-WICKED SUPRISE will take action as he should be able to show some speed in here. He's another proven on grass as the only question will be if he needs a race coming into this spot.

5-RACING THE LIGHT ran well in both starts last year, finishing third in her debut here and then heading to Indiana to finish second. She’s making her first start since October but she has been training very well. Like most of her rivals, she’ll be trying turf for the first time. She owns pretty good speed. Would expect her to be an early factor throughout. 3-WILD DREAMS tired in her debut, a race contested at this distance on turf, but she’s dropping to an easier level while racing with turf experience. Wheels back quickly, seven days, which might or might not be a factor. But she is probably the quickest of these. Might not get caught. 6-RED REGRET makes her career debut. She’s another that has been training well and she might possibly be bred the best for turf.

Pretty open race but I’m going with 6-ELECTRIC CHARGE. He finished behind a couple of these runners in last but he was racing for the first time since October and runners from his barn often improve dramatically in their second start after layoffs, to the tune of 42% winners. If the field stays intact, there should be plenty pace to set up for his late run. 3-REGIMENTAL, the other closer in here, finished a few lengths in front of top choice in that race. He moved earlier and better than Electric Charge. He does own better speed than top choice so that could give him the advantage if the early speed tires. 1-SLAVA UKRAINI and 2-GENERAL ISSUE could be fighting it out on the front end.

Not in love with 5-ELIZA VANCE but think she will probably be the best of the speed. Like many in here, she needed last, her first race of the year. With the stretch to a route for the first time, she could be fast enough to build a commanding lead and never look back. 1-UNKEPT PROMISES outran her odds in last when she was stretched out for the first time. She pressed the pace from the start, took the lead briefly and still held on to finish second, two lengths back. She might be fighting for the lead again today. 2-DRAMA SPEAKER went right to the lead in her local debut. She fought early on before fading to fourth. However, that was her first race of the year and she had only a couple of drills going in. Could be better prepared to get the distance in this contest.

1-CHRISTMAS PRESENT has always done well here. He was favored in his first start of the year and ran well enough to finish second. He wasn’t a match for the winner but he was well clear of the third-place finisher. With his style of running, he isn’t pace dependent and can function well no matter that kind of pace develops ahead of him. 8-FIRST MASAMUNE needed last, his first start since August. This late runner should get more than enough pace ahead of him. He should be coming on late. Could get close. 6-JET FLIGHT has had far more routes than sprints but he has done pretty well in his shorter races. Both his races this year were against better. Think he fits well with this group.

This race is filled with speed but I’m going to take a speed runner anyway. 2-LOST SUNSET tired a bit late in last after leading early. But that was her first race of the year and it was a sixteenth farther. She might have to fight for the lead again but she should be fitter than she was in last and she won’t have to fight quite as long in this shorter contest. 9-WRITTEN CONSENT drew away from the field in last, ultimately winning by six. She displayed good speed in that race. However, it’s her ability to close that makes her doubly dangerous in this spot. Could make it two in a row. 3-GO STORMIN GIRL finished behind some of these in her last couple races but she has done so well on this track in the past that it’s hard to count her out, especially with the probable heated pace ahead of her today.

Many of these runners met in last. 2-TEMPER TANTRUM came away with the win. He has now been victorious in seven of his 19 turf contests, including three local turf wins from eight tries. He could get a similar trip today. Can add to his success. 7-WICKED SUPRISE makes his first start since October. His barn hasn’t been that effective with layoff horses lately but this gelding appears to hold a significant speed advantage and he might be able to just lope along on an easy lead. 6-SHADY MCGEE finished second top Temper Tantrum in last. He had closed as well as that rival but didn’t commence his late run in time and wasn’t able to catch up. Might be the first to move today.

T 2 Green Mans Joy 4 Angelic 1 Eternal Embrace

P 1 Dedication 5 My Gelato 4 Itll Be Alright

P 9 On Time Delivery 4 Rochester Flash 5 Phone Nine One One

P 7 Ys Flowernumberten 6 Gooseberry 5 Lyons Marian

T 10 Resolved 2 Buddies Dream 3 Poppin Bottles

T 1 Ivy Lynn 2 P L Sapphire 9 Oceanview Rumors

P 6 Superior Delight 7 Allsmokeandmirrors 5 My Last Kiss

P 7 Wifey Said So 6 Greystone Treasure 5 Ak Black Badger

P 7 Johnstown Jet 2 Abovemypaygrade 1 Diamond Ryder

T 4 Lisbon 9 Beersnsunshine Deo 7 Clarissa W