Handicapper Tips & Picks

Of the runners with experience #1 DISGUISED DEVIL has the edge over the two 4yo (#3 TRINITY’S PRIZE and #4 KISSES FOR WEEJ) on numbers and overall visuals with the two starts this season. Each of the April races recorded consistent B- efforts and facing solid winners in Smoked (Rivelli) and Kelly’s Girl (Robertson) in those races holding her own.

Their biggest threat appears the two FTS with #2 BUTTONS AND LACE showing up with the recent strong series of works, three recent bullets into this event in capable hands. Boyce/Centeno have been effective overall together on this circuit especially on the dirt and when it comes to FTS together with three all in the money with 1 win, Indyville. Robertson also effective this season and overall with FTS represented here with #5 SAVVY SMILA. She brings in steady works with the mix of speed and stamina to come out race ready. The barn with FTS on this circuit since 3/2020 17% win and 44% ITM though when isolating statebred runners, a smaller sample of three with 2 wins – positive $4.07 ROI. 

The long layoff runners bring upside with #1 WAGGLE PASS despite some gate issues from the first two starts and this belated return not a 4yo, the lone 4yo in the field. She showed run with each and B OptixGRADE at TP (1/24) making a MOVE and strong GALLOP+ after the SLOG. #5 RACING THE LIGHT finding closer to a lateral move returning for this sophomore debut. They showed speed in both with a solid effort on debut, less fancied than their stablemate, She Stopped Short the place finisher last September and for the second start upgraded as the BOS while WIDE tracked by the winner, Square Baby.

Rivelli bringing in a pair for this race both with experience this season and similar speed figures on the duo. #2 ARRIVEDERCI has the added experience and first turf, while picking up a rider change (W. Rodriguez) along with class and the move to the turf all things that could assist here; while #3 WILD DREAMS wheels right back for a second start has the benefit of the turf experience and experience overall. That is likely needed as her debut just last week was GREEN tough to saddle and mentally not as prepared as necessary first out. #6 POLSKA SUE also wheeling back from the 5/8 common race recorded an improved figure on the day and noting for the pair in terms of result chasing the dominant open length pacesetting winner, Midnight Mary.

FTS #4 SIOUX REVENGE as noted in Race 1, with H. Robertson runners on debut on a capable clip and looking at the sample of FTS turf runners a smaller sample of three with 1 win, 1 place both of those runners debuting as 4yo.

#6 RED REGRET debuting for their connections looks to have some run based on the published works and solid series of drills. The barn at Hawthorne debuting runners brings in a smaller 0/7 sample, though tough to apply those runners here as all debuting on the dirt and only one (show finish) was at the MCL. The sample outside of Hawthorne debuting on the turf is 0/9 however all at the MSW level and on speed figures, those runners recorded figures that would fit on par for today’s MCL event, something analytical outside of historical stats to consider. 

This race presents contenders from top to bottom and tough to default to the favorite, the likely favorite in this case #3 REGIMENTAL. While capable, REGIMENTAL does not hold any strong edge as the favorite. Even when looking at their stablemate #2 GENERAL ISSUE some consideration can be given with the change in class and recent WIDE trips with the distance and rider change in play and likely looking to utilize their early speed. That scenario could assist REGIMENTAL with trip and make things a little tougher for #1 SLAVA UKRAINI upfront and even consider #5 STORM’S REFLECTION part of the first flight.

While that pace scenario can develop to assist REGIMENTAL, looking at the Plot that trip should assist the other off pace runners with similar position and shape: #6 ELECTRIC CHARGE brings upside for the level connections back under similar conditions and despite finishing position on 4/17 earned the same B- OptixGRADE as REGIMENTAL those runners in a blanket at the wire behind the longshot (in odds primarily), Alvin. #7 ICE AXE finished behind that first flight in part to in running TROUBLE and upgraded from that 4/17 trip and overall making the class change on the day still presenting that same upside here in the third start of the season. 

#8 CLASSYCOWTOWNLADY showed run on debut projecting to IMPROVE and landing at Hawthorne for the second start and stretch out in distance, had some excuse in running not asked (NO_PUSH) for their best last after the early RUSH and the layoff that followed. The EX – EXCUSE was far more clear in the return last month at HS Indy when taking a legitimate stumble (TROUBLES+) out of the gate and contact while racing inside behind horses started to show late interest and found TROUBLE along the rail in lane.

#5 ELIZA VANCE also projecting to step up with racing from their debut last June and did so with the 8/25 number and effort in the place finish with a game, Takeitaway (Boyce) while racing against open and the barn taking that spot to avoid their stablemate, Rogue Diamond, the filly MSW race on the prior race day – the 8/22 race that #4 MARGARITA BLUEBIRD debuted in. ELIZA VANCE has the benefit of a race this season and that foundation for the second-off stretch out, a timing angle that has been effective for the L. Rivelli runners as of late.

With the stretch out in distance and W. Rodriguez jumping aboard ELIZA VANCE should be forward something that would add more pace to the race and for the others including the group returning from the 4/24 race with both #1 UNKEPT PROMISES and #2 DRAMA SPEAKER both showing early speed that day. #6 COCALINA did not get a chance to run losing their footing out of the gate and taken in hand soon after. She appears fine picking up a rider change with two recorded works since and while she must pick it up overall, there is the foundation from the juvenile campaign along with prior route experience to draw from.

Class is still a question mark for both #3 CATNIP HILL and #7 TRINITYTHREEINONE based on their races to date in MSW though hold the foundation and route experience with fitness on their side.

This is a very competitive race and a case for all eight in this field. That includes #8 FIRST MASAMUNE projected to be the longest shot in the field though a Large Square on the Plot that would not discount, especially in the exotics. Fellow longshot, #7 MALIGATOR lacks recency and early speed, though plenty of races that fit on par and the type that requires the price compensation to take a swing.

Looking at the early pace, #2 GABAGOOL has that position and while there are others in Q1 (#4 RISKY BOY) the Fire Contention is paired with the lower SpeedRate. Trip could be tough again with the rail draw for #1 CHRISTMAS PRESENT though finds different dynamic for this second start of the season (possible front wrap removal as well) where A. Centeno can save ground behind the first flight and could be the key trip with first run.

That first run on rivals #3 ALIBI IKE bringing back in an every other form cycle pattern along with the subtle distance change back to 6f; the distance #6 JET FLIGHT was waiting for returning on 5/1 and passing a turf sprint on Sunday (where they had a look) to run here instead. #5 HATCHET CREEK requires some racing luck to win, price compensation to play though could find that right combination given the depth of this field. 

#9 WRITTEN CONSENT can win right back as she fits today’s race shape Q1/2 Square not the “need the lead” type while showing that on 4/17 with the dominant/B+ BOS win. With that said, she is not overly exciting at a shorter number as the prime knock.

The early pace projects to be honest with both #2 LOST SUNSET and #8 SMILE AT THE STORM out to contest the lead bringing in upside in their own way. LOST SUNSET second off moving inside though does also find a rise in par. SMILE AT THE STORM caught the storm with the WEATHER conditions on 4/29 and lacking/NO_FINISH was slight BOS unable to hold off #5 ELLIE DELI with clever handling from E. Giles and based on the Plot, similar to WRITTEN CONSENT looking for that first run tracking trip.

Trip is key for #3 GO STORMIN GIRL one that sat closer to the early pace than what that race dynamic called for, a scenario that set up for the winner, Dixie Penny. GO STORMIN GIRL while very WIDE on 5/4 also slight WEATHER conditions with rain on the day and upgrade overall and fair value with the assigned ML. That same dynamic noted for #6 LADY ATLANTIC, a longshot to consider as she is not always consistent to pop with a big race, though has it in here and part of the DUEL on 5/4 has continued to progress racing into shape.

#4 AWESOME SUNDAY third off with consistent B- OptixGRADE and positive in OptixNOTES making a CLOSE on 3/27 and followed up with a TROUBLE trip (and TROUBLE_S) making a WIDE MOVE to finish in a BLANKET on 4/13 with the top six together at the wire. Their runstyle (Q4 Square) needing the pace to develop in front of her, something that could be more effective at 6f and while not impossible at 5.5f still requires the racing luck to win and value to play.  

#8 DAPPER DUDE was able to avoid the claim in the main track starts this season and the connections making a belated return to the turf, the ideal surface for this gelding. They debuted on the turf, a winning type effort first out settling for place in a photo and wheeled back for the second start a dominant win over this course and mile distance. They did not return to the Hawthorne turf until last season, those races a higher condition with the allowances and higher claiming where DAPPER DUDE finished off-the-board, though not out of contention, competitive efforts (B-) and figures that fit on par here.

In terms of #1 CARTHAGE CAJUN they project to land a lot of wagering support coming off the recent win, outcomes and connections. Timing along with projected value is the reservation working to win just two weeks ago and takes on a tough bunch. That creates a bigger handicapping factor than the surface switch and lateral class move. 

Value was the key with #2 TEMPER TANTRUM, one that could look for a similar outcome and tracking trip behind projected pacesetters #7 WICKED SURPRISE and #9 BAKENEKO wheeling right back from a similar conditioned race last week. The slight change in distance here could be the edge for #6 SHADY MCGEE a game effort making a late MOVE off COVER for place and progressive OptixGRADES looking at the Past 3 Runlines to set up for a B today.

#3 CITY OF GOD makes a belated return to the turf, a surface versatile type that started their career long on the grass in MSW company at the FG early in the sophomore season. They have yet to run on the grass since joining the M. Quinonez barn though there has then intent already entered this season, sitting on the AE from 5/8, a $12.5k claiming event where they can race protected here – J. Felix assigned that day and holds the call here.

#5 BREAKOUT STAR also making a return to the turf, a versatile type and first turf at Hawthorne. They bring in current form, class relief from the allowance races, a higher par following the claiming win on 3/27, a race with a similar par today.

5yo mare #4 PASTA SALAD RHONDA makes the move to open company and slight rise in par coming off the recent efforts this season with consistent figures and no stranger to the turf and local turf while given a flow upgrade from 4/27, their first start off the claim.