Handicapper Tips & Picks

In terms of ML favorite, #6 BOOTH they will likely be short in that role and while capable off their current form and figures sit as the "BOS: they project to find pace pressure in this field especially with second ML choice #5 CONCRETE GLORY and rail runner #1 -- SINATRA and from the outside #7 EPIC RIDE to keep the pace honest. 

#3 CELTIC CONTENDER could run as advertised and with value. They bring in early speed as well though exiting the 7f extended sprint distance races back to 6f could fall into a tracking trip and pointed to this race off the two month break.

Tough to know what #7 THREE HAVANAS will bring other than attention from the public and certainly capable for the connections. C. Clement has a solid record in a limited PIM sample including runners off layoffs in stakes races. 

In terms of those with local and current form: #3 OCEAN CLUB could have to withstand pace pressure though fits on class, speed and timing into this race where they at the least present price compensation and should be overlooked off the recent running lines (X_FLOW upgrade from 2//1 and TRAFFIC at a slightly higher par B-)  and still competitive while pointed to this graded stakes event. 

#11 RETRIBUTION has shown run in each start and upside off their races to date. They showed ability to run first out slightly overcoming a track profile and carried their form to take on winners and quality rivals in the KEE allowance last month. They return to an outside post for today's race and should benefit them along with trip. They can rate closer to the pace, a pace that should be honest. They also are proven at 6f something that is ideal for them and a change for some of the others in this field that will get attention off races at a different distance. The rider change with I. Ortiz taking over on RETRIBUTION should keep the odds in the fair range as J. Ortiz sticks with #3 ANCIENT WORLD one that finds a higher par here and could even even further off the pace (Q4) as they step up off the pair of dominant B+ OptixGRADE and require the right number - potentially shorter than the ML. 

#8 MATTINGLY presents value in this contentious field. They have had just the limited starts sprinting on the turf and at the 5f distance though have in short order shown an affinity for those conditions. They bring in current form from the GP turf sprints with competitive efforts in those races that stack up in here. 

#13 TRIKARI fits as a contender and while assigned the ML favorite role, they could drift from that assignment given the recent outcomes. Their overall form stacks up on par as well as timing and intent second off the layoff and from the PREP making a MOVE last month in the Makers Mile (G1) at KEE. #10 FORT WASHINGTON fits on class at this level and for the 9f distance. They bring in current form coming off the recent BLANKET finish win and for today's race shape moves up to Q2 where they have been effective in the past. #6 BALNIKOV finds a key rider change following the TACTIC- last month and distance change. Those factors all around could easily see the odds come down and could even see a scenario where they are favored - capable though would lack value in that role. 

With #2 JOURNALISM as the projected favorite and horse to beat the challenge is (as it always should be) to create a way to play and make it worth something that pays - otherwise it is free to just watch. The value keys in this race are not the most obvious (of course) alternatives and takes some creativity and racing luck. #3 AMERICAN PROMISE is a flow-upgrade from the KY Derby (G1) part of the Very Fast early pace and a horse that was first off the layoff while fit and consistent number wise; #4 HEART OF HONOR is consistent and the connections pointing to this race can be respected and proven at today's distance.  

#6 ONDINE LADY turned in a competitive B- OptixGRADE race at this level closing out 2024 and brings upside second off with the fitness and class relief from the higher level OC $40k return three weeks ago. The edge on recency could present another edge over the other returning layoff runners while also coming back to an extended sprint distance. 

#4 SPRINGER turned in a competitive B- race with the place finish last 10/20, a race under similar conditions though a higher par than today's event. They bring in love connections back to that spot along with tactical speed and value alternative to the projected favorites, some knocks on those runners to look for alternatives. 

#2 SOMETHINABOUTHER returns with the distance change to one turn as something new about her though otherwise fits on class/speed and overall upside from the races this season and already a graded stakes win from the Mazarine (G3) last year. While no major knocks on the projected favorites #8 WAR SIGNAL and #9 BRINDI as individuals other than shorter numbers perhaps getting creative gets rewarded:

J. Carroll clearly is not one to avoid ambitious placements and noted for #3 HIBISCUS debuting in a solid MSW event going the route of ground on the turf where they can be given both a flow upgrade PRESSED on the Very Fast early pace as well as the positive change in distance here to ONE_TURN. Improvement is required though not out of the question given those upgrades from the debut and just a second start. #5 SOCIAL CODE can also be upgraded showing class to win on debut recording a solid figure and B+ OptixGRADE. This marks the second start off the layoff and key STRETCH in distance to move up here.