Handicapper Tips & Picks

Guess I wind up with 5-LONE RETURN. He raced well enough against open company at this distance in his most recent start. The switch back to Illinois breds can only help. 4-GOOD YEGG owns some of the higher speed figures of this group, on turf and dirt. Would like his chances better if he had more than the one race this year; one in which he faded badly, as the favorite, on the main track. 2-JAKE’S CHANNEL might be the only one in this race with any kind of speed, unless one of the Kirby first timers is quicker than their modest drills suggest.

4-CHAOS REIGNS is far from the only speed in this race but he could be the best. He wired a similar group at this level in his last start. Could face even more early pressure today but think he’s up to the challenge. 6-CATEGORY TEN also enjoys good early speed. Plus, he doesn’t necessarily need the early lead to win. His rider might choose to let some of the other front runners try to soften Chaos Reigns early and do his best to take over late. 1-GLOBAL EMPIRE could surprise. He hasn’t shown much in two starts this year but that could be about to chance. The pace of this race sets up for his late move and for this race. Ademar Santos, who was aboard for two straight wins last year, comes in to ride.

6-LADY HELENA should be tough. She in the midst of a great year. She had a three-race win streak snapped in last but was only beaten a head while facing allowance company. She appears equally adept at racing on or off the pace. Her speed figures don’t really tower over those of her rivals but it’s hard to find fault with her current form. 1-SHESINTHEARMYNOW could be the best of the speed in this speed-filled race. She finished four lengths behind top choice in that last allowance race but she was forced to lead through blistering early fractions. Should have an easier time getting to the front end today. Might lead throughout. 7-RAINY MOUNTAIN moves up in class but she looked sharp winning last and there’s a good chance that the pace of this race will set up even better for her late run.

Wide-open race. There are none in here that could be accurately described as “turf” horses, no matter where they have been racing. None have had a lot of success on the lawn or any surface. But I think 7-PROFESSOR HIGGINS might have the advantage. Most of his races, turf and dirt, have been against better rivals. He doesn’t own a lot of natural speed but there are few speed options in this field and, with the stretch out, he could be close to the lead throughout. 2-REMEMBER THE FEAR is coming off a terrible effort to make his turf debut but he had been racing competitively all winter in Hot Springs and his pedigree would seem to suggest that he’ll be able to handle the lawn. 1-GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN is another stretching out and another expected to display competitive speed at the distance. She is a mare meeting boys but she has had a number of good races on the turf and she isn’t meeting any monsters here.

3-OEUVRE is approaching $1,000,000 in earnings. This talented Perkins homebred has won numerous stakes races, including last year’s edition of this contest, when she carried 128 pounds to victory. With good speed she’ll never be far off the pace. One possible issue, however, is that this is a stakes race and in Illinois, horses racing in stakes are not allowed to use Lasix. She has had six races without Lasix and never won, though none of those races were at six furlongs, a distance in which she won six of seven and finished second in the other. Not sure if she has any real competition in this race though I expect challenges from the two S D Brilie homebreds, 2-PURR SEA and 5-BEEHIVE. Both ladies have been incredibly consistent in their careers. Both love this track and both thrive at the distance. 6-SHARP HERO gave top choice a run for the money the last time they met, but that was back in 2023. She’s going to face a lot of pressure fighting for the lead. Will have to be at her very best.

Have to give 8-EXCELERINA the benefit of the doubt. Throw out that last race at Fonner. She isn’t a dirt horse. She belongs on the lawn with an occasional foray onto synthetic. It’s been a long time since she had any success but, until last, she had been facing far better. Think she’ll awaken with the return to turf and has a good chance to wire the field. 6-ATMIDNIGHT will close with a rush. She finished third in her lone local start, a race that was moved off the turf and onto the dirt track. She’s been racing in Florida ever since. The pace will set up for her. Can get up in time. 4-APRIL’S GEM has had considerable turf success, often versus easier. However, she was competitive in most of her local turf races last year. Seems to fit well with these.

4-LAND MARK DEAL could make it two in a row. He got the perfect stalking trip in last and his rider saved the best for last when he got up in time to win by a neck. The pace of this race could set up even better for him. The speedy 5-GITA’S LAD seems like he should be sitting on a win. He just missed in last after leading much of the way. However, I don’t think he’s the quickest from the gate and he just doesn’t win if he doesn’t get the early lead. Not sure how long he’ll last but 8-ALYANAABI should break on top. He displays good speed in sprints and that speed will be magnified with the stretch out.

Not in love with 6-NOT FALLING BACK but his last race against maiden specials, a year ago, wasn’t bad and he’s dropping to meet a far easier group in his 2025 debut. It helps that he has one of the top turf trainers around in his corner. 10-SAND CAST faced far better on a tougher circuit in all five of his turf starts. He was somewhat competitive in two of them. He had a dirt tune up in Louisiana following a four-month vacation. He didn’t show much in that spot but think he’ll be much improved with the return to grass. 8-UPTOWN TOM displayed very good speed in his two turf races. Expect him to be right there throughout. Heard 7-CRECENCIO could run a bit but was disappointed in his lone start. Might show more with the drop in class and switch in surfaces.