Handicapper Tips & Picks

Of the L. Rivelli  pair #5 WILD DREAMS presents upside for this second start and with the class change in this race. She was GREEN and from a visual standpoint PRERACE- in the paddock on debut that carried out in running making a RUSH before duel/FTQ and on left lead late behind a dominant open length pacesetting winner, Midnight Mary. Number wise WILD DREAMS could present a move forward and off the debut that figure already in line with those consistently recorded from #2 ARRIVEDERCCI one that has NO_LINE in the two starts this season while also showing gate (TROUBLE_S) issues since the debut last July.

On numbers, 4yo #1 SAFECRACKER SUE has recorded some of the higher in this field and for the level holding the B- OptixGRADE slight edge over #4 ENTICING OPTION both returning to this level from the 5/1 common race. The return to the sprint distance requires A. Centeno to be assertive as was the case three weeks ago chasing pacesetting winner, Golden Note, and the course tougher to make up ground.

#3 WAGGLE PASS the other 4yo in the field also holding upside second start of the meet and worth following prerace as she coming off the layoff last week WASTED a lot of energy prior to the start and on a warmer day could have played a role in the outcome and SLOG from the rail also doing her no favors. 

#4 UNCAPTURED PULSE brings in current form and tactical speed (Standard Q1) from the races this season. That includes the start two weeks ago with a slightly higher par than today’ s race and from the races others exit showing up here. That includes their stablemate, #5 CHAMPAGNE MIKE one that has the benefit of some improvement race to race this season and their better races on par while could see the front wrap removal, something to look for as a change along with rider, A. Centeno taking over.

#3 VANISKY with upside and buried form from the Oaklawn series of races found themselves back into competitive ways earlier this month and should transfer right back in this group. The shorter sprint distance was a concern, first time in a long time, though  back class, form and figures carried as it should once again, though trip (with a pattern of gate issues) must be considered when assessing value.

When looking at overall numbers #1 MR. UNIVERSE has recorded some of the higher in this field. There is still a question of whether they are that same horse after missing the extended period of time off, 968-days into the return two weeks ago. Reasonable to say they might have needed the race and also noted they were heavily washed out (WARM) something to look for here.

The distance change comes into play for others in this field including #6 ICE AXE one that has shown some run in the races this season with “trips” along the way. They hold numbers in this group to fit on par and competitive on that front though still require racing luck while price compensation should be there again. 

The default move is to lean on the higher percentage barns with L. Rivelli showing up with the pair – #2 MARY MOONGLOW taking this spot second off and following a scratch in a $25k MCL event earlier this month as some reservation; #3 ESCOVEDO returning from the 160-day layoff showing early speed and NO_FINISH in each of the two starts. DiVito debut runner, #6 BALLYBAY BEAUTY makes her belated debut one that has published works extended back through last year and returning this season with the series at Oaklawn while not entered and working a local half mile last week to prepare for this race.

That trio (along with the established and consistent #5 LA REYNITA) project to take the bulk of the wagering support while the other two should sit at longer odds and not out of it. #4 OMAHA STAMP debuted last August at Hawthorne on the main track earning a figure in line with her stablished rivals and that race first out while also in the juvenile season to project upside or at the least a repeat to stack up on par. #1 ROARING VIXEN with the edge on recency showed run following the SLOG first out and some KICKBACK- making a WIDE MOVE behind a Slow early and late pace, factors to suggest we have no seen their best. 

The default move is to lean on the higher percentage barns with L. Rivelli showing up with the pair – #2 MARY MOONGLOW taking this spot second off and following a scratch in a $25k MCL event earlier this month as some reservation; #3 ESCOVEDO returning from the 160-day layoff showing early speed and NO_FINISH in each of the two starts. DiVito debut runner, #6 BALLYBAY BEAUTY makes her belated debut one that has published works extended back through last year and returning this season with the series at Oaklawn while not entered and working a local half mile last week to prepare for this race.

That trio (along with the established and consistent #5 LA REYNITA) project to take the bulk of the wagering support while the other two should sit at longer odds and not out of it. #4 OMAHA STAMP debuted last August at Hawthorne on the main track earning a figure in line with her stablished rivals and that race first out while also in the juvenile season to project upside or at the least a repeat to stack up on par. #1 ROARING VIXEN with the edge on recency showed run following the SLOG first out and some KICKBACK- making a WIDE MOVE behind a Slow early and late pace, factors to suggest we have no seen their best. 

A solid projection this race moves to the main track, a scenario that provides #7 SHARP STICK a further upgrade with the surface/distance main track  experience this season. In addition, one can project improvement from those races with the sprint return a likely prep on 4/10 and placed with the stretch out second off on 5/1 had a legitimate EX _ EXCUSE with the rider out of the irons early and also up close to a Very Fast early pace.

They are unlikely to be on the lead even with some of the others in this field with the main track form this year as #5 FROSTY VIEW on the stretch and #9 LITTLE STEVEN (HARD effort to win 4/17) should be forward and could likely see #4 NEW YEAR SURPRISE could see themselves in that early picture, assisting the first run trip for SHARP STICK.

A surface switch might see #2 EVEN THE WIND and #6 DOUBLE HEAT defect and while that could also be the case for #1 MAASAI WARRIOR as the connections appear looking for the turf, though in terms of main track form MAASAI WARRIOR fits as a contender and upgraded from the 5/3 EVD race making a MOVE and even with those potential scratches could still find a pace scenario to suit their runstyle here. 

#1 EMPIRICAL VIEW at the least appeared a PREP coming off the layoff three weeks ago needing the race and while coming up short, her stablemate Vegas Condo came through and up late at the wire for the 5/1 win. EMPIRICAL VIEW should hold fitness and a move forward making a RUSH X_FLOW and contesting the pace with show finisher, Shesinthearmynow, one that came back to win assertively on the front end last Sunday.

EMPIRICAL VIEW does not need the leas especially sprinting as some of the “PREP” also suggested for a STRETCH and based on their prior placement. There are others in here (#4 CLIQUE, #5 THERDGOESONFOREVER, #6 SUNSET EXPRESS and #8 SMOKED) that can race on or near the lead and for O. Mojica to look for a tracking trip with first run.

#9 SWEET MUSIC also from the 5/1 common race made a positive PRERACE+ appearance and also brought a lot of wagering support off the layoff and will look to validate those expectations to step up off that 4^th place outcome returning here. Post wise she moves from one extreme to the other with the rail last out, potentially playing a role as she broke SLOG (bobble, lunged out, broke in) though was also fractious in the GATE. In running, she showed a solid MOVE over a course that was tough to make up ground with the higher winds.

#2 SURPRISE ME AGAIN return from the layoff and back sprinting, the surface/distance of her MSW win last season.  A strong effort making a WIDE MOVE and CLOSE on the day and number wise some of her higher figures on this main track, however, must show up with improvement off those sophomore numbers with today’s group, runners with higher recorded figures at this point. 

#4 DICK BEST has not been able to show as much, their best, coming off the layoff this year and can return to a top effort in here. The race par for today’s event is one where they have been competitive and won in the past and as far as the races this year presented upside second off on 5/3 though caught a higher par, the outside post and a flow-upgrade making a WIDE RUSH into a Fast early pace. The distance change comes into play though going back in their career handled shorter and figures wise the same on the turf and dirt going longer.

DICK BEST presents upside and value when compared to rival #5 GOLD SWEEP also exiting the races at Oaklawn Park and claiming events showing who they are in those races, form that fits here though less exciting at a shorter number overall. Mojica sticks with #2 JOE THE TAILOR, a horse they have paired up competitive place finishers with last year, both races in statebred allowance company, competitive though does catch a higher par, something similar to closing out the year on 10/13 running at odds of 16.6-1 on the day.

#7 MONDOGETSBUCKETS will be tested against winners though tested since their first two starts in contentious MSW company at CD showed some class, class that has carried this year with the adversity coming off the layoff on 3/30 and followed up with the score three weeks later. Those two races tougher battles in each has been given time, 32-days to regroup before landing here to hold their form.  

#8 LUCKY SHOT bring in current form and looking at the Plot a favorable runstyle for today’s race shape. They should also hold value, something key with the competitive nature on this race with many stacking up as contenders. LUCKY SHOT brings in current form and every other pattern while projecting to move up following the KEE race last month unable to get into the running following a SLOG. Some intent could follow with the timing for this race, the circuit switch as well as rider with A. Santos following a smart ride to win last September jumps back aboard today.

#1 EYE DEE KAY  just barely sneaks into the eligibility to race protected with a slight class edge on that front. This marks their second start of the year and a clever claim for $25k last month with a solid speed figures recorded and show finish they could move up from (at the least repeat) making a positive PRERACE+ appears and with TROUBLE_S made a SAVED MOVE with the top two together at the wire in a four horse field.

#3 BLOW TORCH also racing protected here following the reclaim and sneaking by the claim box last month at Oaklawn when running for the $7.5k tag for the first time. They were a reclaim for C. Rosin, a barn that has had plenty of success with this horse and plenty of times at Hawthorne running under a similar or even higher par. Their local race record, is not as hidden (compared to current form) showing up on the pp’s, something that could catch the public eye and might come down from the double digit assignment.

The local race record also carries to #4 SHACKLEFORD STRONG one that along with that Hawthorne success includes the turf win on 5/11 while reuniting with regular rider, O. Hernandez, a rider that had a lot of confidence and success with them. SHACKLEFORD STRONG also races protected here with the early 2023 claiming races while in the C. Rosin barn.

#7 FAITHFUL RULER is the lone runner in for the claiming tag, a move the connections must make to run in this spot. They were claimed for $30k back in May of 2022 and have run for the claiming tag in the past including the layoff return in 2023 for $15k to make this move less concerning at this point and more just looking for the level where they can compete. A. Centeno will take over today has had plenty of success for this barn and while second off the layoff will find some changes removing the short-term blinker experiment and will also not the addition of front wraps off the bench last month and something to look for here as well.

Their (FAITHFUL RULER) early speed should be on display and present a hurdle for #2 PHILIPSBURG one that in addition to race shape will find today’s race par a step up from their recent races and require price compensation on the win end that might not be there.