Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 COMEBACK GIRL presents upside from the debut, a race last month with a higher par than today's race and flow upgrade asked to DUEL WIDE on a Fast early pace before losing (NO_KEEP, NO_LEAD) ground. Prior to the debut on 4/19 the connections had been looking for a spot over this course and distance going back to a scratch in Feb and again on 5/18, A. Ayuso named in some of those race defections and showing a positive ROI in the past year. 

#5 INTO THE HALL showed run on debut over this course and distance while in against older back on 3/29. Off that trip  (TACTIC- SLOG, MOVE, GALLOP+) they stepped forward all around and with the higher figure in the WIDE trip on the dirt last month, a number that could be inflated (as that appears the case for #4 COOEY) to take with a grain of salt while still able to project upside from the debut. The debut number also noted from #3 ROBIN WITH A WHY stands out as a contender with that said, was  under a lower par and with a PERFECT trip, something they have not run back to at this point. 

The Sun Contention and higher SpeedRate could present a faster pace than what might appear on paper that early pace includes #3 LOOKS RARE stretching back out in distance; and still a top effort required from #5 RESEMBLANCE despite the change in class in this third start against winners. 

The class drop, surface switch and addition of front wraps creates some reservations on #6 BIG JUANITO one that otherwise should contend and flow upgrade from the recent 5/9 start. Their stablemate had legitimate TROUBLES+ and TROUBLE on the first turn in the 4.26 common race to support back under similar conditions and noted rider change in the process. 

#2 PETESOLDFASHIONED should have pace to target and brining upside with a rider change following a TACTIC- WIDE trip at this level on 4/26. 

#2 CUBAN CONFUSION is capable in the role as the favorite in this race, their stablemate #3 ARRAKIS is intriguing returning from the layoff and in this spot where the barn has had success with these type of returning runners along with A. Fresu aboard. 

#1 POSITIVITY has had success at this level and extended sprint distance to fit logically right back under similar conditions first off the claim for P. Miller. With that said, the P. Miller barn has been on the colder side this month and something to consider on value to adjust if necessary. 

#1 CONTROL FUNCTION brings in upside off their races at this level since coming off the layoff and should hold value once again from those running lines and finishing position. It is reasonable to suggest a PREP off the bench in Nov at DMR and following that start on opening day (12.26) a legitimate EX - EXCUSE with TROUBLE+ and projecting to IMPROVE was caught X_FLOW on 1/25 and less than ideal TACTIC- making a MOVE at the shorter sprint distance given the freshening returning here and with a rider change. 

#5 TRUSTY RUSTY had held their form this season and at the route distance under similar par and conditions. They will find a slightly lower par from the two most recent starts and similar par and race shape to that back on 2/14 recording a solid place effort on the day. That effort just a tough short of the B though did record a B at that higher par while sprinting 5.5f on 4/4. 

#7 MEGA MOON recorded a BTL effort at this level while under different surface/distance though still showing a figure and B OptixGRADE effort to further support on class. 

#1 MONGOLIAN MAX has had some "EX" under conditions similar to today when it comes to race shape and class. That can be upgraded giving them a look today as well as adversity on 4/27 where the ML assignment 10-1 is reasonable. #8 SAQEEL has run successfully under today's dynamic (Sun/SpeedRate) to give a look in this spot. The right number is required (6-1 Fair) off the most recent race, not their strongest effort to date and prior had the pattern of layoff lines between races. 

#5 NO SHOW SAMMY JO projects to IMPROVE wheeling back from the Jenny Wiley (G1) last month at KEE. In addition, she has shown a level of class closing out 2024 with a B+ CLOSE into a Slow early pace in the Long Island (G3) taking a tough beat. The winner of that event #8 BE YOUR BEST lands here. She was able to get away with the LONE lead and some class in her own right pairing up graded stakes win at GP though not as effective last month in the Jenny Wiley (G1). In terms of pace should have company with the complexion of this field including #9 WHERE'S MY RING one with the limited grass starts though did not appear in those two races, surface alone was the factor in result. 

The buried form and B- effort from #7 LIGURIA gave them a look in the races this season and picking up the Buena Vista (G2) win in March. Value should hold with Prat aboard that day shifting back to NO SHOW SAMMY JO and in capable hands while also having the class behind here and the races this season to fit here again today. 

#6 EXPENSIVE QUEEN was dominant/B+ with the allowance win last month at KEE and some confidence to ship out west and take a shot in this graded stakes event. She showed class that day and could step up to the competition though this is a much stiffer test and requires price compensation, arguably even higher than the ML assignment to count as fair odds. 

Longshot #7 ARROWTHEGREAT has some hurdles in this spot though at the same time brings in upside off their current form. Their ABOVE+ Plot position and lack of "Red" in the Keywords, something noted for the shorter priced runners in this field. There has been intent for this race entered in this event last year, at the time off a layoff and a change here coming in second off with the fitness. 

#2 ATITLAN will be tested here with the distance and class change while also losing regular rider H. Berrios to #7 MI HERMANO RAMON as A. Fresu takes over. Those changes are not severe knocks when paired with price compensation as ATITLAN broke their maiden (B+) at the mile distance and in terms of G1 company with in a BTL effort (behind winner and today's rival #5 FORMIDIBLE MAN) running X_FLOW in the (age restricted) Hollywood Derby (G1) and projecting to IMPROVE off that outcome has show as much this season.