Handicapper Tips & Picks

This race is evenly matched, with today’s race shape could be the separator to impact the outcome. The Fire Contention is paired with the higher 50 SpeedRate, a potential hurdle to overcome for #3 GRAND ILLUSION as a Q1 Circle (contested pace with #2 SLAVA UKRAINI and #6 HELIOCHROME) at the same time stepping up in class from the N2 win earlier this month racing with the track BIAS.

That scenario moves up horses from off the pace and in the case of #4 REGIMENTAL at shorter projected odds lacks value in that role as a Q4 Circle - does not hold the same finishing ability as their rivals #1 ELECTRIC CHARGE and #5 ICE AXE for today’s conditions. 

#1 WHAT’S TO DO moves up in this second start off the season and with significant class relief landing in this spot with a much lower race par today’s 72-66 compared to the higher 81-75 in the 5/18. Going back  to last season WHAT’S TO DO was dominant/B+ on 6/8 a race on the turf (and under I. Hernandez) with today’s identical race par. They returned with a B- competitive effort with TRAFFIC MOVE on 8/8 while giving up the two month recency and a longer layoff that followed. Their prior form and overall turf form even prior starting off their career on the turf in MSW company at KEE and continued to run on competitive events on the grass ultimately finding the maiden win on the dirt in June 2023, the first start in at the MCL level something that appeared to move them up on the class change more than the surface switch.

Looking at the Plot, WHAT’S TO DO shows up as a solid Square both on Standard (their current form) and Surface/Distance to fit today’s race shape. The early pace projects to be honest with the Fire rating and five of the eight in the field as EP type runners. That includes the other J. Haran runner, #8 END OF INNOCENCE one that will make their first start of the Hawthorne season in this spot while also making the transition back to the turf fir the first time in a long time and at the route distance for the overall first time.

END OF INNOCENCE in this race has those individual hurdles though with an outside post and their early speed as shown on Standard should be forward from the jump and make things tougher in that front running role on ML favorite #7 OH MACARENA (Q1 Circle) and similar for #6 ANNIE’S HOPE and even #4 LILY’S HOME and #5 GOLDEN NOTE that could also look to be effective on the front end.

#3 LUNAR NOTE could get attention for the connections and overall does not hold any strong edge in this field when looking at the Plot, though should find a favorable trip; capable though value required. The longer odds should hold on #2 CATHOLIC SUE one that has held their form and appears to have been waiting for the return to the turf. Going back to last season was competitive over this course and distance recording a B OptixGRADE under a similar par with the tight place finish on 9/19. 

Haran could look for back-to-back wins with #2 LEGALLY LUCKY in this spot. She fits off their overall form as well as form over this course with the win last season, an off-the-turf allowance race. Her form carried at Oaklawn this year when placed at the right level for her abilities, each of the claiming starts was competitive with the most effective in the two route starts.

Her biggest threat should be no surprise with #6 IZZY’S MONSTER returning to this circuit and in a clever spot for F. Villa where she can compete at the same time race protected. She ran to her name as advertised with the B+ dominant score on 4/20, a race with similar par and purse to today’s event – not the same case earlier this month with the much higher race par (88-92 compared to today’s 77-71) while also running for the higher $134k purse, a stakes level type purse.

#4 GHAALEB’S RANGER could be tested on class stepping up at this level and circuit switch for this second start off the layoff. The STRETCH out in distance is a positive and going back to the last 2023-24 number also when in allowance company at Oaklawn was consistently recorded solid speed figures with those numbers on par to compete here.

As far as value that is the primary knock on #3 PASTA SALAD RHONDA as the expected second choice and alternative use to IZZY’S MONSTER. While PASTA SALAD RHONDA brings in current form and competitive outcomes this season, today’s par Is slightly higher and requires another top effort lacking an overall edge on class and speed here. 

Going back to 4/17, trainer C. Winebaugh entered a pair of runners and success in that outcome with Little Steven winning on the day. That is noted with a pair here and one part of the 4/17 pair in #5 MOONRISE DRIVE returning where they look to move up. J. Loveberry aboard Little Steven on the day takes over to suggest intent. While looking at the Plot, the race shape is unique with the Snowflake (lack of Q1 horses) Contention paired with the higher 72 SpeedRate. That SpeedRate can be seen visually with more than half of the field above the ParLine and/or to the left of the y-axis. That scenario can benefit #7 CUCUY as a Large Q4 Square to come running on late and look at the time of this analysis look for the first local win for apprentice B. Troxtell.

Also with Plot upgrades as #1 T LAW should track with first run and the edge as the lone Square in the group playing a role in the higher SpeedRate. #4 RAMESSES also looking for the off the pace trip and back to the main track in their second start against winners. 

#4 CAIRO DREAM was arguably “best” on 5/8 while compromised with the TROUBLES+ as she did not have her feet set when the gates opened, hopped straight up, landed in a bobble and from there forced to rate moving inside/out from off the pace against the dynamic. At the least the trip cost a better position if not the win. She brings in upside and on speed figures and class fits as a contender, however the shorter 5f distance could create further trip hurdles. Those same trip hurdles could follow #3 WANDA STRONG while otherwise projects to move up off the PREP layoff return.

With that noted, the early pace should be honest (Sun/46 SpeedRate) and in this case the 5f could see a “BOS/best of the speed” outcome to just hold as the closers come running on late. #11 FOXXY CLEOPATRA could present that edge (Q1 Square) when looking at the Plot, however not taken into account is the post as they must have to clear when looking at the Standard Plot, the other six horses (Q1/3) on their inside and still hold to the wire.  The distance is also noted in the case of #9 YANKEE DOLLAR one that not only gives up recency from the 285-day layoff but also making their first start in at the sprint distance, factors (imo) tough to take a shorter number.

#10 MOMENT TO SHINE also gives up recency off the layoff, though does hold sprint form and local turf sprint form keying off her MSW win over this course and distance in June 2023 when in the L/ Rivelli barn. Buried turf sprint form also carries to #8 CAUMSETT one that lacks the local experience though solid 5f turf sprint form from back in 2023, the last time she was entered to sprint on the turf. That carries in a more obvious manner to #7 RAMBERT going back to the 2024 series of local turf sprint starts though at a slighter lower claiming level and arguably more competitive at 5.5f.

#1 GHAALEB’S CITY from a visual/physical standpoint appears to hold surface versatility and noted making their turf debut in here. That should allow her to hold form on the turf though current form that must hold with those top figures though price compensation should be there to keep on the radar. 

#2 HURTS SO BAD should present as the “BOS” looking at the Plot as the lone Q1 Square, positioned above the ParLine and drawn well with that run style in today’s race to compete. #10 GABAGOOL with their draw could track behind that first flight and fall into first run as the winning trip while lacking any overall edge, has that potential scenario.

If that early contention impacts that first flight, #5 TONY’S MORNING LINE looks to pick up first run and similar in terms of runstyle for #4 CHRISTMAS PRESENT and those two projected just a tad higher than rival #8 HATCHET CREEK when it comes to post time odds.

#3 STINGY could be worth giving another look and key to actually give them a look prerace as he was very “studdish” and keeping the PG-rating in this analysis appeared to have his mind on things other than racing – if you know what I mean and I think you do. A more focused STINGY should see a more competitive race out of them returning here. The PRERACE- visuals also noted for #9 MALIGATOR as they returned from the layoff two weeks ago and should benefit from the start while putting in a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ from a customary SLOG still has today’s shorter 5.5f distance to contend with and a tougher task on the win end from well off the pace/Q4 Square. 

#2 HAWKS CREEK closed out 2024 in the Hawthorne Derby and one of many in that field compromised with legitimate in-running TROUBLE+ playing a role in outcome. The connections after that experience should look to return them in a way they regain confidence, reduce racing trauma and even change things up with rider in this spot. Their overall form fits here and number wise back today to further support in this spot.

The TROUBLE trip closing out the 2024 season was not as dramatic for #5 EVEN THE WIND though present all the same. It was encouraging after finding their confidence in claiming company to step up in the allowance late in the meet (10/13) and similar returning here while they had shown ability though needing racing to find themselves after the sophomore season and moving up as an older horse.

#7 MAASAI WARRIOR has the benefit of recency compared to the other two and finding a lateral par in this spot from the races this season in Louisiana. That is noted where they should hold form though in terms of the win end, came up short without much excuse and in those races in starter allowance company racing at the longer double digit odds than that for today’s race.

Longer odds add appeal to #3 REMEMBER THE FEAR as they remain on the TURF a surface they physically are worth another look over and overall bring upside in this second start of the season and in a level where they can compete keying off prior starts and race par from the recent Oaklawn series. 

OFF THE TURF: #10 BOOGIE BODE not only moves up with the intent as MTO also their Oaklawn form. They return from an EX - EXCUSE in the Trail's End (5/3 14f) with the TROUBLES+ as they were bumped around hard at the break and raced on hold from off the pace unable to run their race or show their best on the day. Their prior form including the 6th place outcome, B- OptixGRADE stacks up on par and looking at today's Surface/Distance Plot should find the right trip/pace with their runstyle and hold an ABOVE level of Class rating. Arguably BOOGIE BODE should be favored in this race and could wind up higher than rival #6 MCMONEY one that has the recent win over this course and route distance from 4/20 - a SETUP trip that day. 

TURF: #3 NILES CHANNEL is overdue for the win and some racing luck on the turf. They return to this course and similar route distance from the 5/8 race with a complete EX - EXCUSE right from the start. They were unprepared a the break and TROUBLES+ that follow from there dropped back to SAVED ground and behind horses in TRAFFIC making a MOVE and showing run something perhaps tougher to see with the running line and finishing position.

#2 DAPPER DUDE had a live look and turned out as a massive overlay holding the show outcome and while overlooked in here they gave an honest representation of themselves back on the turf their preferred surface and should hold form right back in here.  

#5 SHADY MCGEE has been consistent in the two races this season; recording B- OptixGRADES in both of the May starts and capable of pairing up another honest effort here. They will have to show more to step up to that winning “B” though perhaps some intent with the rider change, O. Mojica taking over today and going back to last year at HS Indy was aboard for a pair of place outcomes.

#9 WICKED SURPRISE also from the 5/15 common race and second off should look to step up here though one that has benefit from LONE trips and while they look to hold the front running edge as Q1 Square, they will project to find some pace pressure with the noted Sun Contention. #1 CITY OF GOD a more legitimate longshot on 5/15 though not out of it given another look and move to the turf, a surface they had shown an affinity for going back to the first part of their career as a sophomore.

#7 VITALE projects to be overlooked and at the same time has back numbers and form on the turf that fits on par. Some of those stronger efforts over this course and route distance under a similar par to today’s race. Further intent could follow second off the layoff, gaining fitness last out while picking up the rider change as A. Bendezu takes over. With Hi-5 wagering #4 SON OF GRACE could be included in those deeper underneath spots with the Surface/Distance Plot shape.