Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 FAST N HAPPY follows a positive “every other” pattern into this race and to improve overall while looking for the first win on the year. She has been able to show more tactical speed the case when favored chasing Anna After Midnight back on 4/20 along with win rider from last October L. Colon taking back over to further intent.

Number wise FAST N HAPPY has been consistent to fit on par and number in line with perhaps main rival #3 DESSERT FIRST one that FAST N HAPPY will look to get the jump on tactically and for this shorter 5.5f distance. The early pace should be honest with the four outside runners capable of showing early speed that includes #5 BALI BABY making her seasonal Hawthorne return and while making the surface switch; perhaps dirt not her ideal on the turf can compete all the same noting today’s conditions and reclaimed late last year by M. Quinonez, a barn that had her during the 2023 season. 

Starting the analysis with the L. Rivelli fillies showing up in this spot and projected favorites: #2 SPINNING GLORY holds consistent speed figures and early speed with some intent looking for the turf as they were entered and scratched from a similar MSW race (5f turf) on 5/15 at CD; #11 ESCOVEDO presented with TURF visuals in their debut last October (DELAY to the start of the 10/3 event) and off that race improved number wise while showing gate speed with a POP and part of the Very Fast early pace before the NO_FINISH, something also shown on debut.

Looking at the FTS where trainer C. Block (#7 SADIE’S SWEET RIDE and #10 I’M HUNGOVER) has a strong record with debuting runners in this category the timing of this debut in the calendar year is not where they have had the bulk of their success, splitting hairs but those the numbers. M. Boyce (#9 WEDNESDAY ADDAMS) has had as much success in this category and timing of the year, while bringing in steady works noting some patience making this sophomore debut with some published works in 2024. #6 CHELA debuts as the lone 4yo in the field some scattered works last year

Class wise this spot can be taken closer to a lateral move while the SHORTER distance a positive for #4 MARZ EATOATS and with that class noted they require overall improvement to compete for the top spot. Something that carries to #1 TRUTHORCONSEQUENCE landing here from the KY series of races, a slight softer change in race par and overall numbers to transfer in this group though still must account for class on the win end. The rise in par is noted for #5 POLSKA SUE from the recent races while improvement shown on the turf.

The change in surface noted for #3 CLASSYCOWTOWNLADY and overall must improve number wise with this group. With that said, she turned in a solid number on debut projecting to IMPROVE off that debut as a juvenile and could be give some excuse with the slight flow upgrade on 9/26 while catching a solid rival in Stable Currency (C. Block) and the layoff that follow. She returned from the layoff on 4/16 with a legitimate EX – EXCUSE with the in running TROUBLE and improved with the B- OptixGRADE while a softer figure on 5/15 can also be give a flow upgrade part of the Very Fast early and late pace chasing open length winner Eliza Vance (L. Rivelli) while in hand late to just hold show and should hold fitness from that route back to one-turn; the time for her to show her best. 

#4 SHAMAN SEZ overlooked on 5/8 will not be the case today with the recent B OptixGRADE finishing position at 41-1. They brough upside of buried form and second off with the PREP from 3/27 to suggest that effort was not “out of nowhere” and should hold form here, again projected shorter odds today.

#1 MINIMO does not hold any strong edge as an individual in this race though could land in the right time and place both in form cycle and in terms of trip. They return to the sprint distance and with the rail draw should trans the pace, an early pace that should be contested with #2 FREEDOM EMPIRE and #3 IDIOSYNCRASIES. Could even see #5 TALLAPOOSA closer to the early pace today with a rider change, post position change and from the 5/8 race one they might have lost in the GATE before it started.

#3 LUCKY SHOT had a look just over a week ago and similar right back in this spot. While the timing is noted on the quick turnaround, often that has been a positive for them and in this case from the effort and WIDE trip along with A. Santos back aboard, the rider up last out as well as last year picking up the 9/22 win. In addition to current form, they fit on speed figures as well as class. They have held their own under a similar (and even higher) par, with overall solid form over this course and distance. They are able to run in this race with just the lone start of eligibility when racing for the  $5k tag last July, a race they won and were fortunate to not see the claim and has been “protected” since, that word in quotes with the higher $25k claiming tag in that noted September win.

#5 DEAL’EM AND WEEP takes the step up in the seasonal debut to take on winners for the first time, the B+ OptixGRADE posted for the MSW win last October suggests they can handle this rise. That effort validated from the other MSW efforts going back to their debut, showing ability racing X_FLOW to pick up a check a similar then running in the two other show outcomes on the turf.

Stablemate #4 ROAR OF SILENCE will be tested at today’s allowance condition once again though does hold experience at this level while also in against winners. Some class weakness (DROP) was projected from her MSW debut and validated those visuals coming back with the MCL win and pairing up wins with a dominant/B+ effort at the $20k N2 level in August – a lower par than today’s race. She was given the allowance opportunity technically on 9/8 however ungraded fractious in the GATE, unprepared at the start losing O. Mojica (sticking with DEAL’EM AND WEEP) on the day and noting a subtle trip closing out 2024 at HS Indy.

#10 VISIONISTA has shown surface versatility noted as she projects to IMPROVE off the TROUBLE trip on 3/20 nearing the finale of the FG meet. The connections seem to have been waiting for a return to the grass where she ran last season at this level though noting some slight trips in both of the 6/16 and 8/1 race while under a higher par than today’s event. That higher par even carried in the Dec/Jan events at the FG where despite the finishing position was competitive pairing B- OptixGRADES in both.

Current form and conditioning carries to #3 ATMIDNIGHT making her second start of the cycle and protected as they return today. With that said and recording B OptixGRADE on 5/18 that race par identical to today to suggest she can compete here. 

#2 THERDGOESONFOREVER moves up naturally on the class drop and with today’s field. Looking at the Plot they should make their presence felt early on the front end (Q1 Standard) and even late (Square) in terms of finishing ability. Today’s par is lighter than the two allowance races this season and similar to the one when breaking their maiden LONE (albeit Slow early/Very Slow late, playing a role in the Plot position/shape here) back in March at the FG. Class wise she holds the edge while not much change in position/shape on the Plot looking to separate #1 CRYSTAL SNOW.

#5 CALLAS is a longshot to give a look to and should hold longer odds in this race. In terms of class, this is a step up from the 5/1 start while also making the transition back to the one turn distance. With that said, the B- OptixGRADE recorded on the day and drop not most ideal TACTIC- with the rail and in running SHUFFLE while the race shape a strong Fast early and Very Fast late. Her current OptixGRADE are progressive and when paired with higher speed figures recorded in prior seasons that all around could see a top effort here. The front wraps added for this board is noted in those two recent starts and perhaps could be change for today.

#9 ABSOLUTE MIRACLE appeared to need the start returning from the layoff and from the PREP to improve under today’s conditions and class relief. After taking some slight KICKBACK- in the 5/4 return the shift to an outer post could be key and even show some tactical speed, something that was present for them when picking up the maiden win making a WIDE MOVE in the 8/15 race and similar WIDE MOVE in the 6/23 MSW show finish. #4 JOYZELLA also showing up in that 5/4 common race and fitness coming back in this spot while a top effort is require and could be a bit of a reach on the win end, not out of it for another minor award.

The change in class is technically a DROP for #10 RUMBRANDT and going back to last year looked to require that change. While that is noted racing first time for the claiming tag, today’s race par is closer to a lateral move form those allowance events in 2024 and while capable here could still require some price compensation.

Trainer J. Haran lands here with a complementary pair out of the Oaklawn meet with #7 TEXAS HOTTIE the pacesetting runner of the two while #6 BABE IN THE WOODS took to come running on late remaining at the sprint distance and reuniting on this circuit with O. Mojica.

The Sun Contention and higher-than-average 63 SpeedRate are respected here and should impact the “pace makes the race” outcome. From off the pace, #7 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD fits this dynamic as a Q4 Square along with the massive class drop. She also brings in current form for this second start off the layoff returning from a TROUBLE trip and less than ideal TACTIC- following the SLOG – a rider change in play with O. Mojica taking over.

TRAIL RIDGE ROAD with a similar runstyle will look to get first jump on the other Q4 Square #6 MIDNIGHT BELLA showing up for their Hawthorne debut and landing in a favorable spot for their abilities in order to compete. The Plot position is similar for #2 LOTTA ROSES while shape not as strong landing here while bringing in progressive form and sneaky CLOSE from the 5/18 race two weeks ago with the higher par and higher par starting off the year in the open $8k claiming event at TP.

#8 DIAMONDS JOY should at the least hold form if not move up with the return to the TURF for the first time in a long time. She made her debut on the turf and improve with racing while picking up her maiden win over this course and distance last May -  a yielding course – and following that race has not had a chance to return to the grass in a route race before today. She should present the controlling speed when looking at the Plot (Standard)  as a Q1 Square and a force to make things tougher on the Q1/3 “Circle” runners in this field. That could even include #3 UNION DOLLY while shifting to a Surface/Distance Square and following rival TRAIL RIDGE ROAD from the 5/8 common race along with the key class change. 

Not getting too creative to open the day as I look to favorite 3-DESSERT FIRST on top. She dropped to this level for her last and ran a solid second. The winner of that race came right back to win. She will need some pace to chase but should find it in here. 4-HONOR HIS HALF has speed. She didn't clear in her last which may have compromised her a bit. In here, I expect her to send as Murrill gets back aboard. 5-BALI BABY runs for the hot Quinonez barn as she makes her second start of the year. She drops slightly for this spot but has tactical speed to rate close and contend the entire way.

Experience gets the nod in here as the break will be the key for the inside two runners. 2-SPINNING GLORY has run well in all three of her starts, showing speed in each. If she can get away in good order, she could clear and never look back. 1-TRUTHORCONSEQUENCE ran an improved race in her last and was claimed, but that claim was voided. She comes back off the layoff in here but has worked well toward her return. 7-SADIE'S SWEET RIDE debuts for Block with Lasix. She's bred to run a bit further but this barn tends to have theirs ready early. I expect she settles and rallies in the lane.

A shorter field but a tough race as many have similar running styles. Went to 3-IDIOSYNCRASIES as he draws better today and gets Bendezu back aboard, who won on him two back. The wide trip was costly in his last, but if he can clear off the inside two in here and get to the fence, he should be tough. 5-TALLAPOOSA is the one closer in here as he will benefit if those to his inside all push the pace. He ran on late in his starts two and three back and the price should be right. 4-SHAMAN SEZ pushed things in his last and almost pulled off a massive upset. He should rate close once again, but the concern is that he bounces off that performance.

A good turf allowance as there may be a chance to catch a price. 8-TIDAL TACTICS has not been good recently but take into account that the last three starts were on the main track and the race prior to that was in a tough Churchill allowance. She fits nicely in here as she's likely to settle early and run on in the lane. 3-ATMIDNIGHT has been good in her last two, just missing in both. She is another that figures to rate early but she has shown the ability to uncork a big late rally. 5-DEAL'EM AND WEEP ran an easy maiden winner in her final start of 2024. She steps up in here but has worked well toward her first start of the year.

Going to look to a bit of a price in here and give the nod to 9-ABSOLUTE MIRACLE as she drops in her second start of the meet. She ran two good races over this surface last summer and has tactical speed to keep her in the mix. Let's see if she can turn her recent form around. 2-THERDGOESONFOREVER drops as well as she has tried allowance-company in a pair of starts. She has speed and with the inside draw should be able to maintain her position early. 10-RUMBRANDT makes her first start of the year as she's likely to sit back early and rally in the lane. She runs a bit more protected as she's in for the state-bred $20k tag. She has three works toward her return and appears ready to go.

I really like the effort from 4-EXCELERINA in her last as she battled against better and hung in to the wire. The added sixteenth should help her chances in here as Loveberry rides once again. 7-TRAIL RIDGE ROAD runs for the Illinois-bred $20k tag as this is the lowest level she's been at in some time. She faced tough company to open the racing season and could use this one as a confidence boost. 3-UNION DOLLY also drops after facing tougher in her last. She did rate close in that spot but was empty at the top of the lane. Let's see if she sits back early in here.

3-DESSERT FIRST was claimed from a similar event last time out. She doesn’t have a strong closing move but she is likely to finish with good energy while stalking what should be a heated pace ahead of her. The shorter distance of this race is the main concern. 4-HONOR HIS HALF might hold a slight speed edge. She fought for the lead in both local starts and held on fairly well. She’ll have to fight for the front end once again but she is making her third start over the track and she’s cutting back in distance. 1-FAST N HAPPY finished fourth behind the top pair in last but she generally races competitively. There are no standouts in this race. It could be her turn.

There is plenty of early speed in this race and the front end could be hotly contested but I’m still going to go with 2-SPINNING GLORY as the one to beat. She led most of the way in all three of her races. Narrowly lost her local debut. Tries turf for the first time but is bred to handle it. There are two Illinois-bred first timers that could be good. 9-WEDNESDAY ADAMS and 7-SADIE’S SWEET RIDE. Both come from sharp barns that do well with first timers and both are bred to thrive on the lawn. 11-ESCOVEDO, stablemate of top choice, tired late in her lone turf start back in December. She’s had some strange drills coming into this race. Some have been brilliant, some have been glacial. Not sure how she’ll do.

If 4-SHAMEN SEZ runs the way he did in last, it’s unlikely that any of his current rivals will beat him. However, he hadn’t shown that kind of ability in any race since his maiden win last year at Canterbury. Will he regress or build on that effort? Guess we’ll see. 1-MINIMO turns back in distance. He displayed decent route speed in last but just ran out of gas. He won’t be close early in this race but think he’ll be able to finish with good energy and could pass all the tiring speed. 3-IDIOSYNCRACIES is probably first from the gate. Has a legitimate chance to wire the field. 2-FREEDOM EMPIRE just graduated. He often displayed speed in his recent races but those times at the Arizona track don’t always equate to our deeper track. 

8-COALMINER’S KITTEN has been on a pretty nice roll since moving to this barn. He crushed bottom level claimers in his first start for them and then had a win and two close seconds in his three races since. He owns enough speed to stay close in the early going but will mount his best move once they turn for home. 1-WE MISS ARLINGTON faded as the favorite in last but he hadn’t shown much on the turf prior to that race so the extra attention was a little surprising. However, he did win his previous two races on dirt. He’s capable on or from right off the lead. Figures prominently either way. 6-ALL ABOUT TONITE looks like the quickest of these. He probably won’t get away unchallenged for the lead but, with the drop from allowance company in his second start for this hot barn, he might be able to put them all away.

Going to take a flyer with 9-BEADS. She hasn’t been in the best of form lately but the last time she ran on turf, she won and paid over $14. She didn’t show a lot in her other three turf races but those races were at Del Mar, Belmont, and Delaware. Jareth Loveberry rode her to victory in her lone turf score and will be the pilot today. Could surprise. 5-DEAL’EM AND WEEP’s 19-length maiden win was impressive but she was only facing five Illinois-bred fillies that day. She’s been training well but she will be meeting winners for the first time while coming off a seven-month layoff. Could be vulnerable. 3-ATMIDNIGHT has been in good recent form. She finished second in her last two, including her local debut. She’s probably the best deep closer in the field. Her chances improve if a fast pace develops. 

2-THERDGOESONFOREVER drops from allowance company. She’s shown only brief speed in her two races since her maiden victory but she should find the company far easier at this level. 9-ABSOLUTE MIRACLE also drops. She didn’t beat a rival in her local debut but, like top choice, she’s going to be meeting an easier field this time out. 6-BABE IN THE WOODS has been better on turf but there is a lot of speed ahead of her in this race and I am expecting her to display some late run.

7-TRAIL RIDGE ROAD tailed off at the end of last year and didn’t show a thing in her 2025 debut so the drop into claimers in warranted. Makes her second start off the layoff and many runners improve when doing that. Guessing she’s due for a bounce back effort. 6-MIDNIGHT BELLA takes a much-needed drop in class while making her local debut and her first start for this barn. The pace of this race should be brisk which plays right into her strong late kick. 4-EXCELERINA is another dropper. She split the field in last, her Hawthorne debut. She might not get the early lead but think she’ll be in front by the time they turn for home. At this level she might still be there at the finish.