Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 FAST N HAPPY follows a positive “every other” pattern into this race and to improve overall while looking for the first win on the year. She has been able to show more tactical speed the case when favored chasing Anna After Midnight back on 4/20 along with win rider from last October L. Colon taking back over to further intent.

Number wise FAST N HAPPY has been consistent to fit on par and number in line with perhaps main rival #3 DESSERT FIRST one that FAST N HAPPY will look to get the jump on tactically and for this shorter 5.5f distance. The early pace should be honest with the four outside runners capable of showing early speed that includes #5 BALI BABY making her seasonal Hawthorne return and while making the surface switch; perhaps dirt not her ideal on the turf can compete all the same noting today’s conditions and reclaimed late last year by M. Quinonez, a barn that had her during the 2023 season. 

Starting the analysis with the L. Rivelli fillies showing up in this spot and projected favorites: #2 SPINNING GLORY holds consistent speed figures and early speed with some intent looking for the turf as they were entered and scratched from a similar MSW race (5f turf) on 5/15 at CD; #11 ESCOVEDO presented with TURF visuals in their debut last October (DELAY to the start of the 10/3 event) and off that race improved number wise while showing gate speed with a POP and part of the Very Fast early pace before the NO_FINISH, something also shown on debut.

Looking at the FTS where trainer C. Block (#7 SADIE’S SWEET RIDE and #10 I’M HUNGOVER) has a strong record with debuting runners in this category the timing of this debut in the calendar year is not where they have had the bulk of their success, splitting hairs but those the numbers. M. Boyce (#9 WEDNESDAY ADDAMS) has had as much success in this category and timing of the year, while bringing in steady works noting some patience making this sophomore debut with some published works in 2024. #6 CHELA debuts as the lone 4yo in the field some scattered works last year

Class wise this spot can be taken closer to a lateral move while the SHORTER distance a positive for #4 MARZ EATOATS and with that class noted they require overall improvement to compete for the top spot. Something that carries to #1 TRUTHORCONSEQUENCE landing here from the KY series of races, a slight softer change in race par and overall numbers to transfer in this group though still must account for class on the win end. The rise in par is noted for #5 POLSKA SUE from the recent races while improvement shown on the turf.

The change in surface noted for #3 CLASSYCOWTOWNLADY and overall must improve number wise with this group. With that said, she turned in a solid number on debut projecting to IMPROVE off that debut as a juvenile and could be give some excuse with the slight flow upgrade on 9/26 while catching a solid rival in Stable Currency (C. Block) and the layoff that follow. She returned from the layoff on 4/16 with a legitimate EX – EXCUSE with the in running TROUBLE and improved with the B- OptixGRADE while a softer figure on 5/15 can also be give a flow upgrade part of the Very Fast early and late pace chasing open length winner Eliza Vance (L. Rivelli) while in hand late to just hold show and should hold fitness from that route back to one-turn; the time for her to show her best. 

#4 SHAMAN SEZ overlooked on 5/8 will not be the case today with the recent B OptixGRADE finishing position at 41-1. They brough upside of buried form and second off with the PREP from 3/27 to suggest that effort was not “out of nowhere” and should hold form here, again projected shorter odds today.

#1 MINIMO does not hold any strong edge as an individual in this race though could land in the right time and place both in form cycle and in terms of trip. They return to the sprint distance and with the rail draw should trans the pace, an early pace that should be contested with #2 FREEDOM EMPIRE and #3 IDIOSYNCRASIES. Could even see #5 TALLAPOOSA closer to the early pace today with a rider change, post position change and from the 5/8 race one they might have lost in the GATE before it started.

#3 LUCKY SHOT had a look just over a week ago and similar right back in this spot. While the timing is noted on the quick turnaround, often that has been a positive for them and in this case from the effort and WIDE trip along with A. Santos back aboard, the rider up last out as well as last year picking up the 9/22 win. In addition to current form, they fit on speed figures as well as class. They have held their own under a similar (and even higher) par, with overall solid form over this course and distance. They are able to run in this race with just the lone start of eligibility when racing for the  $5k tag last July, a race they won and were fortunate to not see the claim and has been “protected” since, that word in quotes with the higher $25k claiming tag in that noted September win.

#5 DEAL’EM AND WEEP takes the step up in the seasonal debut to take on winners for the first time, the B+ OptixGRADE posted for the MSW win last October suggests they can handle this rise. That effort validated from the other MSW efforts going back to their debut, showing ability racing X_FLOW to pick up a check a similar then running in the two other show outcomes on the turf.

Stablemate #4 ROAR OF SILENCE will be tested at today’s allowance condition once again though does hold experience at this level while also in against winners. Some class weakness (DROP) was projected from her MSW debut and validated those visuals coming back with the MCL win and pairing up wins with a dominant/B+ effort at the $20k N2 level in August – a lower par than today’s race. She was given the allowance opportunity technically on 9/8 however ungraded fractious in the GATE, unprepared at the start losing O. Mojica (sticking with DEAL’EM AND WEEP) on the day and noting a subtle trip closing out 2024 at HS Indy.

#10 VISIONISTA has shown surface versatility noted as she projects to IMPROVE off the TROUBLE trip on 3/20 nearing the finale of the FG meet. The connections seem to have been waiting for a return to the grass where she ran last season at this level though noting some slight trips in both of the 6/16 and 8/1 race while under a higher par than today’s event. That higher par even carried in the Dec/Jan events at the FG where despite the finishing position was competitive pairing B- OptixGRADES in both.

Current form and conditioning carries to #3 ATMIDNIGHT making her second start of the cycle and protected as they return today. With that said and recording B OptixGRADE on 5/18 that race par identical to today to suggest she can compete here. 

#2 THERDGOESONFOREVER moves up naturally on the class drop and with today’s field. Looking at the Plot they should make their presence felt early on the front end (Q1 Standard) and even late (Square) in terms of finishing ability. Today’s par is lighter than the two allowance races this season and similar to the one when breaking their maiden LONE (albeit Slow early/Very Slow late, playing a role in the Plot position/shape here) back in March at the FG. Class wise she holds the edge while not much change in position/shape on the Plot looking to separate #1 CRYSTAL SNOW.

#5 CALLAS is a longshot to give a look to and should hold longer odds in this race. In terms of class, this is a step up from the 5/1 start while also making the transition back to the one turn distance. With that said, the B- OptixGRADE recorded on the day and drop not most ideal TACTIC- with the rail and in running SHUFFLE while the race shape a strong Fast early and Very Fast late. Her current OptixGRADE are progressive and when paired with higher speed figures recorded in prior seasons that all around could see a top effort here. The front wraps added for this board is noted in those two recent starts and perhaps could be change for today.

#9 ABSOLUTE MIRACLE appeared to need the start returning from the layoff and from the PREP to improve under today’s conditions and class relief. After taking some slight KICKBACK- in the 5/4 return the shift to an outer post could be key and even show some tactical speed, something that was present for them when picking up the maiden win making a WIDE MOVE in the 8/15 race and similar WIDE MOVE in the 6/23 MSW show finish. #4 JOYZELLA also showing up in that 5/4 common race and fitness coming back in this spot while a top effort is require and could be a bit of a reach on the win end, not out of it for another minor award.

The change in class is technically a DROP for #10 RUMBRANDT and going back to last year looked to require that change. While that is noted racing first time for the claiming tag, today’s race par is closer to a lateral move form those allowance events in 2024 and while capable here could still require some price compensation.

Trainer J. Haran lands here with a complementary pair out of the Oaklawn meet with #7 TEXAS HOTTIE the pacesetting runner of the two while #6 BABE IN THE WOODS took to come running on late remaining at the sprint distance and reuniting on this circuit with O. Mojica.

The Sun Contention and higher-than-average 63 SpeedRate are respected here and should impact the “pace makes the race” outcome. From off the pace, #7 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD fits this dynamic as a Q4 Square along with the massive class drop. She also brings in current form for this second start off the layoff returning from a TROUBLE trip and less than ideal TACTIC- following the SLOG – a rider change in play with O. Mojica taking over.

TRAIL RIDGE ROAD with a similar runstyle will look to get first jump on the other Q4 Square #6 MIDNIGHT BELLA showing up for their Hawthorne debut and landing in a favorable spot for their abilities in order to compete. The Plot position is similar for #2 LOTTA ROSES while shape not as strong landing here while bringing in progressive form and sneaky CLOSE from the 5/18 race two weeks ago with the higher par and higher par starting off the year in the open $8k claiming event at TP.

#8 DIAMONDS JOY should at the least hold form if not move up with the return to the TURF for the first time in a long time. She made her debut on the turf and improve with racing while picking up her maiden win over this course and distance last May -  a yielding course – and following that race has not had a chance to return to the grass in a route race before today. She should present the controlling speed when looking at the Plot (Standard)  as a Q1 Square and a force to make things tougher on the Q1/3 “Circle” runners in this field. That could even include #3 UNION DOLLY while shifting to a Surface/Distance Square and following rival TRAIL RIDGE ROAD from the 5/8 common race along with the key class change.