Handicapper Tips & Picks

Starting the analysis with the two H. Robertson runners: #2 AERONYX on debut comes in with a steady string of works and appears race ready off the series. The barn is capable with these type of debuting runners and when they are “live” they tend to show early speed and likely to be the case under rider W. Rodriguez and their presence in that role up front could present a hurdle for some of the outer drawn runners (#5 RACING THE LIGHT and #6 LA CLASICA) that have also shown early speed.

#3 SAVVY SMILA with the benefit of a race makes a lateral class change to take on open company while racing for the higher $22.5k tag as a IL-bred. She had some steady works into debut including a drill just 4-days prior to the first start and a bullet work since. She should benefit from that conditioning and experience racing GREEN on debut including a SLOG and picking up a rider change as well as some intent noting a scratch from a MSW turf sprint last Sunday to run here instead. Will note that I. Hernandez was named for that race lands on the returning #1 MISS STEPHANIE here while SAVVY SMILA in capable hands with O. Mojica aboard.

#4 TRINITYTHREEINONE could be overlooked of the group of experience runners this season. She presents upside on the class DROP while also from the trips this season going back to the TROUBLES+ on 4/27 and was WARM on 5/15 while also less than ideal TACTIC- for the two turn distance (behind open length pacesetting winner Eliza Vance) and picking up a rider change here with A. Bendezu aboard. 

With the projected weather on Wednesday that could change the surface for this race at the least should soften up the turf. There are added challenges with today’s race shape when looking at the Plot, a unique dynamic with the Fire Contention paired with the lower SpeedRate, shown visually with the Plot position as well as the field below the ParLine. That could assist runners that have tactical speed #2 RED RIZZLER and #8 JOURNEY while at the same time enough pace for #1 PROFESSOR HIGGINS and even long shot #6 PONCHO ATTACK.

The change in class is noted for #4 VIA DEL CORSO looking to reestablish themselves following the debut win and speed figure, yet to run back to that number. The connections landing here to run for the claiming tan and lower par, a move that was considered scratched from a similar $20k N2 claiming event back on 5/15 at HS Indy. The distance and class change also coming into play for #7 REGAINED POWER on the one week turn around when catching the Sun Contention and very high 75 SpeedRate last week, a big change in dynamic landing here. 

A case can be made for both of the R. Martinez runners in this spot: #6 ACCELERATING BABE, a true N3 type already with a higher $15k N2 win back in February and returning to this circuit. She is also returning with time between starts and looks to benefit from that 44-day refresh while also back at the 6f distance. The timing is a change for #3 SLAGFLATION looking for a third straight win. She took awhile to pick up that first win, though going back though the 3-4yo campaign was running consistently, often competitively however at the higher level out in KY for those races. She moved up this year with the class relief and recent confidence with the open length wins at FP. Perhaps some REGRESSION can be projected at the same time confidence running right back and making the trip to run here also with regular rider A. Bendezu.

A. Bendezu has been a mainstay aboard #1 ECHO DREAMER including their win this season going back to 3/30 at the $5k N3 level, the three wins for less than today’s claiming tag to present eligibility here. The change in class is something that carries to #2 WRITTEN CONSENT; also looking for three straight wins on the class rise. That also comes with the change in distance back at 6f and noted GALLOP- in the 5/15 win at the 5.5f distance.

#4 LADY HELENA should show more early speed and the SLOG X_FLOW from 5/18 likely impacting her Plot position today and noted as she should be forward and contesting the early pace along with #5 LOST SUNSET one that when looking at the Plot should be “lone speed” though the “Red” PlotFit noted in this case and especially paired with the honest 43 SpeedRate. 

The potential for a surface switch is in play (and will be updated on race day) and added challenge for this group at the 5f distance regardless of surface. L. Rivelli is prepared for turf/dirt with the pair of runners and both capable at the shorter sprint distance along with brining in tactical speed and drawn well for the individuals.

#3 BIG VINCE has shown surface versatility and a level of class holding their form at the different tracks, surface and distances while also competitive in stakes company. They are a flow upgrade (BOS, Fast early pace) and all around upgrade following a controversial DQ (no change if it were up to me) in the Woodstock Stakes on 4/27 at WO.

#10 UNCASHED (MTO) showed a ton of ability on debut and picked up out of that first start showed their connections that effort was not a one-off. While they have followed a different path this year and running or the claiming tag in April (no claim) is the lone graded stakes winner in this field. That win back in 2023 winning the Quick Call (G3) at SAR, a turf sprint moved to the main track and dominant B+ open length front running score topping out a four race win streak at that time.

The pair or at least one in this field should be contention early on for #5 CONGRATS ON FIFTY stepping back up in class up off the win just 11-days ago.

Current form carries to #1 IT’S BOBS BUSINESS another dominant B+ stakes winner going back to statebred company during their juvenile campaign. While progression off those races is still yet to be seen, they have been consistent and consistent under a similar par/purse to today’s event including the two starts this year on the main track and hold surface versatility. The 5f distance could be a hurdle and similar noted for #7 AMERICAN MAYHEM one that has the pattern of SLOG and taking up the PC/Closer role sprinting – a similar off the pace runstyle for #4 GRAND HIDEWAY especially going the 5f. 

#8 EMPIRE BUILDER fits in this race at the horse to beat and when looking at the Optix TriMetric sits ABOVE+ in this field that is tough to ignore. If there is a challenge to them as an individual here it should come as race shape with the Sun Contention and higher than average 63 SpeedRate. Their presence as a Q1 Square is noted in contrast with second choice ML #4 MEGAN’S HONOR and perhaps even similar to #2 SOUL COAXING, the other projected alternative.

From off the pace, #3 READTHECLIFFNOTES should have pace to target at the same time looking at the Plot does not hold that much of a pace advantage over rivals #1 CALIBRATE and #6 GLOBAL EMPIRE runners that could sneak away at higher odds and present value.

#7 HARD TO FATHOM also taking up a role in Q4 and while in that position lacking the same finishing ability (Circle) at the same time that is in part to their recent races and tactics while up close to the pace and often close to Fast/Very Fast early paces and in terms of the Plot position, find the off-the-pace trip their preferred and returning to that runstyle could see them back to competitive ways here. 

Another scenario in terms of race shape (Fire/higher 50 SpeedRate) and Plot visuals with five of the eight runners around Q1 and the majority of those runners Circles. That scenario should make things easier on the Q4 Squares. #6 STEAMPUNK has the contender credentials and appears very live second off while showing up on this circuit. The connections appear to have them well-placed in this allowance with the change in circuit providing class relief while still racing protected and in position for the N1 win. They have experience at the N1 allowance level and with both the 8/10 allowance at ELP and 9/15 CD allowance both “off-the-board” both races came with legitimate EX – EXCUSE.

#1 MISS MIKOS should look for first and inside tracking trip while stepping back up to allowance company from the B+ $25k N2 claiming win last month. She will still be tested with class and noted as they came up short on the win end with a PERFECT trip under similar conditions last September albeit off the layoff and still earning a B OptixGRADE. That provides slight reservations if indeed the race favorite. #8 LITTLE POISON must deal with the race shape though has ability and also appears live with the series of works coming back this year. That carries to potential upside as a sophomore, though at the same time will be tested in against older for the first time. 

#1 GABE’S CHOICE earned a follow from the debut – a trip from the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) while making a MOVE dealing with KICKBACK- COVER behind horses (suggest surface versatility) and overall visuals suggest they can IMPROVE off the number and outcome. They appear to have come out of the debut well working twice since and landing in this spot where they find a much lower par while making the change from open MSW to statebred here – a move of further intent and retaining I. Hernandez with the familiarity.

The change in class for #1 GABE’S CHOICE could be that sneaky class edge while holding value of the other second time starters #5 DRIPPING SPRINGS (C+) and #8 GUNNY SACK (B-) returning from the 5/18 common race for trainer F. Kirby. Both should benefit from the experience and similar trips as both had to make a RUSH and part of the early pace and noted with the winner, #1 MISSED OPTION rallied from 6 lengths back at the half from off-the-pace to win.

The change in class is also noted for #7 FRONTIER MARKET and while racing for the claiming tag last out this will be their first against statebred company and a softer par today while also bringing in upside all around including the races last year and staying on as the BOS (after the TROUBLE_S and RUSH) together with Red Rizzler (next out $20k 5f turf sprint maiden winner) for place.

#10 LONE RETURN with plenty of experience can be tougher to back on the win end with confidence especially at shorter odds though another that has been competitive in statebred company including the 5/18 start with in running TROUBLE.