Handicapper Tips & Picks

Such a nice race. Obviously there appear to be three main contenders but, in reality, only two of the eight look like toss outs.

Rain at Saratoga? Who knows. Track condition?

I don’t really think the pace of this race will be quite as fast as in the first two legs of the Triple Crown and that might favor Journalism, who tends to race closer to the pace. But he did lose to Sovereignty the only time they met. That race, the Kentucky Derby, was contested at this distance on a sloppy track.

Not sure if either of those factors were determining factors but they certainly have to be considered.

However, I am going to select 6-BAEZA for post a mild upset. For a runner that generally races close to the early pace, his trip in the Derby was a nightmare. There was no way he was going to get good position when starting from the 19 hole. He was forced to come from far back and the fact that he finished only a bit behind the winner was remarkable. With this far smaller field and a quick pace ahead of him, he could get the trip needed.

I hated to pick against 2-SOVEREIGNTY after choosing him in the Kentucky Derby. He’s fully rested with five weeks between races and three useful drills during that period. He’s going to be on his toes for this race.

7-JOURNALISM could easily win this. He has been so good in his career and his late surge to win the Preakness was certainly impressive. But he did lose to Sovereignty in their lone meeting, under similar conditions. The small decline in speed figures is also worth noting. Is he a little tired from his tough campaign?

5-CRUDO might make things interesting. He never raced against this type and his speed figures pale in comparison to my top three but his last two wins were impressive. He’s the best speed and he’s bred to run all day. Might lull them to sleep on the front end.