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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun June 8th, 2025

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Emily's Analysis

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Looking at the Plot, it is clear the pace should be set and honest with both #4 MAMBA OUT and #8 BIG SALLY both in Q1 and above the par line. Both showing up off wins, at the shorter distances and landing on this circuit could open up the race to stalk-and-pounce types - while at the same time will give #6 LADY ATLANTIC a longshot look and perhaps part of the early pace with a clear break return to 6f with the rider change.

In terms of the tracking runners - #1 JOLIE RULER (stablemate to MAMBA OUT) should look to save ground with their tracking runstyle and similar for #2 GO STORMIN GIRL first off the claim and one of two for H. Rodriguez/Valla also represented by #3 PRANCIPANTS also exiting a FP win 19-days ago.

Those two will look for first run on #7 AWESOME SUNDAY a solid closer represented by the Plot position/Square with the slight addition of ground while also coming off a win and number wise a touch lighter than others when looking at the Past 3 Runlines along with today’s 78-70 par. #9 TALL GIRL holds the figures in ran and significant class relief with the main unknown today’s shorter distance, that a bigger question mark than the dirt especially as they land here with the positive change in post from the rail last out to the outside here. 

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 3:05 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

In terms of the established types: #5 ABUNDANCE makes a lateral change when looking at par from the $30k MCL event back in April at KEE while also a slight FLOW upgrade and opposite X_FLOW upgrade from the 2/22 grass race at GP. #3 FAYETTE SPIRIT is who they are, an established type with the connections looking to keep them protected while showing up on this circuit for the first time and perhaps just looking for the circuit switch to find natural class relief, however this field is now “weak” and they will require their peak effort and racing luck. Today’s par is relief for #7 TRAITOUR one that also requires a top effort (while presenting surface versatility) and at the same time could get attention following a place finish, a very distant place finish behind the open length chalk winner back on 4/4 at EVD that rival, Interlude, raced with a similar trip to TRAITOUR on the day.

FTS #8 GOBEKLI has been looking for the right spot to run on grass and landing here where they will race on this circuit protected and scratching from a $32k MCL 8.5f race a few days ago (6/4) at HS Indy with this spot taken. #6 RODAVLAS could be overlooked wheeling back for this second start in what appeared a PREP for the debut on 4/20. The race should assist on fitness and conditioning while the race holding form with three next out winners.

That also includes a next out place finisher in #4 TAUNTING overall consistent type recording B- OptixGRADE and progressive figures in each of the four starts to date. They also have been consistent in the habit of breaking SLOG (RUSH, TROUBLE_S) and even going back to the grass race last year while making up ground into a Slow early (and Very Slow late) pace and perhaps looks to show more tactical speed here. Stablemate #2 NITSCHKE returns for a belated second start where some upside can be projected from the debut late last season. While the made a positive PRERACE+ appearance they raced GREEN breaking SLOG and racing WIDE. The higher par for that 10/10 race noted while coming back as a 4yo here.

J. Haran also with a pair and the two #1 SKIBIDI RIZZ and #9 TEXAS CYCLONE (MTO) in this spot both present individual upside from their races at OP though no real edge in here. 

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The early pace should be honest with #2 RACARINO inside and #7 UNCAPTURED PULSE outside those two with tactical speed that should also be joined by #3 HURTS SO BAD with that trio taking up Q1. That should also tracking trip for both: #1 ONE PUTT RICHIE returning to this circuit and class level along with O. Mojica, the rider aboard and playing a role in their two recent wins; #4 STINGY looked to benefit from the “ultimate equipment change” as a gelding for the 5/29 race and following the 5/8 race when very studdish PRERACE- appearance. Those two with the positional jump and closing ability (Square) on #5 SON OF GRACE.

#6 TRY TRY AGAIN also sitting in Q4 as a Circle though in part to the two return races this year and showing improvement race-to-race with progressive OptixGRADES to not discount completely by the Plot. They appear to be racing into condition noting the WASTED energy prerace off the layoff while WIDE and PREP on 4/27 while racing NO_PUSH on 5/8 something clearly impacting the Plot position and shape. 

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 MONDOGETSBUCKETS will be tested against winners though tested since their first two starts in contentious MSW company at CD showed some class, class that has carried this year with the adversity coming off the layoff on 3/30 and followed up with the score three weeks later. Those two races tougher battles in each has been given time and noted scratch when entered under similar conditions on 5/22 (worked 2 days later 5/24) to regroup (49 days) before landing here to hold their form where another top effort is required to win. 

C. Block also with the returning #1 GOOD APPLE one that started off the 2024 season strong and held their form and figures consistently through the summer. Interestingly, that O. Mojica their rider in the two wins and many of the minor finishers lands with MONDOGETSBUCKETS something that could point to intent with the pair.

While noting rider changes and in the case of MONDOGETSBUCKETS when entered last month they were assigned with J. Loveberry the rider picking up on #7 LAST MINUTE for L. Rivelli as they make their belated return to the races. They have been entered twice this year (and scratch from a route allowance at PRM last September) with the connections clearly patient with this one overall and given the layoff history, waiting for the ideal spot. They bring in early speed as noted with the B+ maiden score last July and noted runstyle that could be tough to catch while #8 DICK BEST is more on the route-speed and #6 GOOD SWEEP seems to prefer a target to chase and #2 GOOD TO BE PRINCE with some early speed while not a confirmed need-the-lead type. #4 STROPE and even #5 BALADINE could press, while class is their biggest hurdle back at this allowance level/circuit. 

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:21 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Another unique Plot with the Snowflake Contention paired with the higher than average 56 SpeedRate taking into account runners coming out of sprints and/or main track events. That includes #7 DAPPER DUDE one that is arguably better (at least so imo) on the turf wheeling right back with that surface switch here and some subtle class relief as well. Number wise their efforts on the turf stack up right in line with #4 TEMPER TANTRUM one capable though likely a big favorite here coming off the two recent wins and with the connections involved.

The other E. Rodriguez runner #8 ROTARY DIAL has plenty of foundation though less-proven on the turf and even for the route distance as the stretch back out for the first time in a long time here. From the recent sprints and with the post position they should be out showing early speed, a change from the 5/25 race noting the SLOG SAVED (rail draw) and put in a sneaky CLOSE X_FLOW to upgrade all around.

Back numbers and class along with Surface/Distance (with the higher SpeedRate) give #3 MR. UNIVERSE a look, though must return to those efforts as the two starts this season would not make the cut – though to be fair and with the long layoff should benefit from the racing and if they are to return to a peak effort this reasonable could be the time and place.

#9 MILLARD’S SMILE (MTO) was sneaky BTL in their 3/22 show finish all things considered and racing three times that month has been given the 78-days to reset returning to Hawthorne for this meet. 

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:47 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The Plot is similar to Race 5 with the Snowflake Contention and honest 45 SpeedRate with the subtle change in individuals as six of the nine sharing the E or EP runstyle. That does not include #3 VANISKY one that has the Plot position change and perhaps even upgrade on Standard moving to a Q1 Square with the stretch out in distance.

#5 FAMILY TRADITION does not change position in Q2 just subtle with the shape moving to a Square. Their bring in form from the starts at Oaklawn and progressive OptixGRADES as shown in the Past 3 Runlines.

As far as the Q4 runners, #4 LAND MARK DEAL drops down in that Plot position a subtle change from their recent races with Q2 position and something that should be accounted for with price compensation especially on the win end. #6 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR has a mismatch with runstyle and Plot position though has been effective from Q4 while one that can show tactical speed and returning with a rider change following a TACTIC- (and CLOSE) on 5/11 impacting their finishing position. 

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:13 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 LICENSE TO STEAL project to move up on the TURF and did just that closing out 2024. They return from the layoff here with the form and figures in line with today’s par and noted key class change making the move from MSW to MCL company – just one of a few in this field first time in for a tag.

#7 WOLF HUNTER also returning from the layoff and plenty of races to date though many at the MSW level and with the most competitive races in MCL company including the two starts closing out 2024 both compromised with trip and race shape – subtle flow upgrades.

The TURF Projected was noted for #9 RAGNOW (and #3 RAYFIELD) as they held their form and another place outcome in the 5/18 start with a WIDE trip and should continue to hold their form under similar conditions here and similar for #4 DYNO WAR also with the TURF Projections back on 4/13 and moved up number wise on the grass in the 5/11 race.

The change in par and purse is noted for #5 BOURBON STREET BOY and a slightly new face on that front landing here and making some changes while also presenting as a slight flow upgrade as part of the early pace in the CD starts. Number wise #8 CASH APP MIKE is on the lighter side, though took a step forward on this circuit and with the surface switch to the grass last month. The STRETCH out in distance fits as a positive for this individual as well to help with another move forward. Number wise #10 ROYAL AND READY also on the lighter side though one that should be monitored prerace as this season they have lost their race (MANIC, WASTED) before even leaving the paddock. 

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 SHARP STICK fits as a contender in this spot. They returned protected off the layoff in the shorter sprint back on 4/10 followed up with a legitimate EX (equipment) on 5/1 and while looking for the turf upgraded X_FLOW in the 5/22 common race. Given the “trips” this year they have not had a chance to show their best and today presents that opportunity.

#4 SIXWILLBERICH bring in current form and class relief with the higher par back on 4/30 and upgrade from the TROUBLES+ (tangled break) and MOVE X_FLOW in a strong effort all things considered. They have shown surface and runstyle versatility while a fit on class and speed as well.

Also from the 5/22 common race, #2 NEW YEAR SURPRISE makes their second start of the season and back to the turf the intended surface. Class wise they find relief with a lower par and condition while also presenting a s a flow upgrade part of the Very Fast early and late pace on the day and holding show behind the winner, #10 LITTLE STEVEN one that paired up wins though HARD efforts in both to project at the least regression and look for alternatives if they land at shorter odds.

In addition to LITTLE STEVEN, trainer C. Winebaugh represented by #7 WICKED SURPRISE one that might have to revert back to a tracking runstyle with other E/EP types in this field as far as trip. Trip should be noted in the two starts this season with the TACTIC- returning from the layoff on 5/15 and TROUBLE_S SAVED with a NO_PUSH on 5/29 appearing no worse for the wear on the 10-day turnaround.

While the Snowflake and lower SpeedRate are noted there are still many EP Types and more than half of the field to the left of the y-axis something to upgrade not only SIXWILLBERICH but could even consider #1 LINE TO GAIN in that role and #3 EL MUCHO where a top effort is key though handled the turf with a sneaky good effort on 5/15 with ground loss/X_WIDE trip.