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Sun June 8th, 2025 |
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Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Looking at the Plot, it is clear the pace should be
set and honest with both #4 MAMBA OUT and #8 BIG SALLY both in Q1 and above the
par line. Both showing up off wins, at the shorter distances and landing on
this circuit could open up the race to stalk-and-pounce types - while at the
same time will give #6 LADY ATLANTIC a longshot look and perhaps part of the
early pace with a clear break return to 6f with the rider change.
In terms of the tracking runners - #1 JOLIE RULER
(stablemate to MAMBA OUT) should look to save ground with their tracking
runstyle and similar for #2 GO STORMIN GIRL first off the claim and one of two
for H. Rodriguez/Valla also represented by #3 PRANCIPANTS also exiting a FP win
19-days ago.
Those two will look for first run on #7 AWESOME SUNDAY a
solid closer represented by the Plot position/Square with the slight addition
of ground while also coming off a win and number wise a touch lighter than
others when looking at the Past 3 Runlines along with today’s 78-70 par. #9
TALL GIRL holds the figures in ran and significant class relief with the main
unknown today’s shorter distance, that a bigger question mark than the dirt
especially as they land here with the positive change in post from the rail
last out to the outside here.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:05 PM CST
In terms of the established types: #5 ABUNDANCE makes a
lateral change when looking at par from the $30k MCL event back in April at KEE
while also a slight FLOW upgrade and opposite X_FLOW upgrade from the 2/22
grass race at GP. #3 FAYETTE SPIRIT is who they are, an established type with
the connections looking to keep them protected while showing up on this circuit
for the first time and perhaps just looking for the circuit switch to find
natural class relief, however this field is now “weak” and they will require
their peak effort and racing luck. Today’s par is relief for #7 TRAITOUR one
that also requires a top effort (while presenting surface versatility) and at
the same time could get attention following a place finish, a very distant
place finish behind the open length chalk winner back on 4/4 at EVD that rival,
Interlude, raced with a similar trip to TRAITOUR on the day.
FTS #8 GOBEKLI has been looking for the right spot to run on
grass and landing here where they will race on this circuit protected and
scratching from a $32k MCL 8.5f race a few days ago (6/4) at HS Indy with this
spot taken. #6 RODAVLAS could be overlooked wheeling back for this second start
in what appeared a PREP for the debut on 4/20. The race should assist on
fitness and conditioning while the race holding form with three next out
winners.
That also includes a next out place finisher in #4 TAUNTING overall
consistent type recording B- OptixGRADE and progressive figures in each of the
four starts to date. They also have been consistent in the habit of breaking
SLOG (RUSH, TROUBLE_S) and even going back to the grass race last year while
making up ground into a Slow early (and Very Slow late) pace and perhaps looks
to show more tactical speed here. Stablemate #2 NITSCHKE returns for a belated
second start where some upside can be projected from the debut late last season.
While the made a positive PRERACE+ appearance they raced GREEN breaking SLOG
and racing WIDE. The higher par for that 10/10 race noted while coming back as
a 4yo here.
J. Haran also with a pair and the two #1 SKIBIDI RIZZ and #9
TEXAS CYCLONE (MTO) in this spot both present individual upside from their races
at OP though no real edge in here.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:30 PM CST
The early pace should be honest with #2 RACARINO inside and
#7 UNCAPTURED PULSE outside those two with tactical speed that should also be
joined by #3 HURTS SO BAD with that trio taking up Q1. That should also
tracking trip for both: #1 ONE PUTT RICHIE returning to this circuit and class
level along with O. Mojica, the rider aboard and playing a role in their two
recent wins; #4 STINGY looked to benefit from the “ultimate equipment change” as
a gelding for the 5/29 race and following the 5/8 race when very studdish PRERACE-
appearance. Those two with the positional jump and closing ability (Square) on
#5 SON OF GRACE.
#6 TRY TRY AGAIN also sitting in Q4 as a Circle though in
part to the two return races this year and showing improvement race-to-race
with progressive OptixGRADES to not discount completely by the Plot. They
appear to be racing into condition noting the WASTED energy prerace off the
layoff while WIDE and PREP on 4/27 while racing NO_PUSH on 5/8 something
clearly impacting the Plot position and shape.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 3:55 PM CST
#3 MONDOGETSBUCKETS will be tested against winners though
tested since their first two starts in contentious MSW company at CD showed
some class, class that has carried this year with the adversity coming off the
layoff on 3/30 and followed up with the score three weeks later. Those two
races tougher battles in each has been given time and noted scratch when
entered under similar conditions on 5/22 (worked 2 days later 5/24) to regroup
(49 days) before landing here to hold their form where another top effort is
required to win.
C. Block also with the returning #1 GOOD APPLE one that
started off the 2024 season strong and held their form and figures consistently
through the summer. Interestingly, that O. Mojica their rider in the two wins
and many of the minor finishers lands with MONDOGETSBUCKETS something that
could point to intent with the pair.
While noting rider changes and in the case of MONDOGETSBUCKETS
when entered last month they were assigned with J. Loveberry the rider picking
up on #7 LAST MINUTE for L. Rivelli as they make their belated return to the
races. They have been entered twice this year (and scratch from a route
allowance at PRM last September) with the connections clearly patient with this
one overall and given the layoff history, waiting for the ideal spot. They
bring in early speed as noted with the B+ maiden score last July and noted
runstyle that could be tough to catch while #8 DICK BEST is more on the route-speed
and #6 GOOD SWEEP seems to prefer a target to chase and #2 GOOD TO BE PRINCE
with some early speed while not a confirmed need-the-lead type. #4 STROPE and
even #5 BALADINE could press, while class is their biggest hurdle back at this
allowance level/circuit.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:21 PM CST
Another unique Plot with the Snowflake Contention paired
with the higher than average 56 SpeedRate taking into account runners coming
out of sprints and/or main track events. That includes #7 DAPPER DUDE one that
is arguably better (at least so imo) on the turf wheeling right back with that
surface switch here and some subtle class relief as well. Number wise their
efforts on the turf stack up right in line with #4 TEMPER TANTRUM one capable though
likely a big favorite here coming off the two recent wins and with the
connections involved.
The other E. Rodriguez runner #8 ROTARY DIAL has plenty of
foundation though less-proven on the turf and even for the route distance as
the stretch back out for the first time in a long time here. From the recent
sprints and with the post position they should be out showing early speed, a
change from the 5/25 race noting the SLOG SAVED (rail draw) and put in a sneaky
CLOSE X_FLOW to upgrade all around.
Back numbers and class along with Surface/Distance (with the
higher SpeedRate) give #3 MR. UNIVERSE a look, though must return to those
efforts as the two starts this season would not make the cut – though to be
fair and with the long layoff should benefit from the racing and if they are to
return to a peak effort this reasonable could be the time and place.
#9 MILLARD’S SMILE (MTO) was sneaky BTL in their 3/22 show
finish all things considered and racing three times that month has been given
the 78-days to reset returning to Hawthorne for this meet.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 4:47 PM CST
The Plot is similar to Race 5 with the Snowflake Contention
and honest 45 SpeedRate with the subtle change in individuals as six of the
nine sharing the E or EP runstyle. That does not include #3 VANISKY one that
has the Plot position change and perhaps even upgrade on Standard moving to a
Q1 Square with the stretch out in distance.
#5 FAMILY TRADITION does not change position in Q2 just
subtle with the shape moving to a Square. Their bring in form from the starts
at Oaklawn and progressive OptixGRADES as shown in the Past 3 Runlines.
As far as the Q4 runners, #4 LAND MARK DEAL drops down in
that Plot position a subtle change from their recent races with Q2 position and
something that should be accounted for with price compensation especially on
the win end. #6 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR has a mismatch with runstyle and Plot
position though has been effective from Q4 while one that can show tactical
speed and returning with a rider change following a TACTIC- (and CLOSE) on 5/11
impacting their finishing position.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:13 PM CST
#6 LICENSE TO STEAL project to move up on the TURF and did
just that closing out 2024. They return from the layoff here with the form and
figures in line with today’s par and noted key class change making the move from
MSW to MCL company – just one of a few in this field first time in for a tag.
#7 WOLF HUNTER also returning from the layoff and plenty of
races to date though many at the MSW level and with the most competitive races
in MCL company including the two starts closing out 2024 both compromised with
trip and race shape – subtle flow upgrades.
The TURF Projected was noted for #9 RAGNOW (and #3 RAYFIELD)
as they held their form and another place outcome in the 5/18 start with a WIDE
trip and should continue to hold their form under similar conditions here and
similar for #4 DYNO WAR also with the TURF Projections back on 4/13 and moved
up number wise on the grass in the 5/11 race.
The change in par and purse is noted for #5 BOURBON STREET
BOY and a slightly new face on that front landing here and making some changes
while also presenting as a slight flow upgrade as part of the early pace in the
CD starts. Number wise #8 CASH APP MIKE is on the lighter side, though took a
step forward on this circuit and with the surface switch to the grass last month.
The STRETCH out in distance fits as a positive for this individual as well to
help with another move forward. Number wise #10 ROYAL AND READY also on the
lighter side though one that should be monitored prerace as this season they
have lost their race (MANIC, WASTED) before even leaving the paddock.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 5:39 PM CST
#8 SHARP STICK fits as a contender in this spot. They
returned protected off the layoff in the shorter sprint back on 4/10 followed
up with a legitimate EX (equipment) on 5/1 and while looking for the turf
upgraded X_FLOW in the 5/22 common race. Given the “trips” this year they have
not had a chance to show their best and today presents that opportunity.
#4 SIXWILLBERICH bring in current form and class relief with
the higher par back on 4/30 and upgrade from the TROUBLES+ (tangled break) and
MOVE X_FLOW in a strong effort all things considered. They have shown surface and
runstyle versatility while a fit on class and speed as well.
Also from the 5/22 common race, #2 NEW YEAR SURPRISE makes
their second start of the season and back to the turf the intended surface.
Class wise they find relief with a lower par and condition while also
presenting a s a flow upgrade part of the Very Fast early and late pace on the
day and holding show behind the winner, #10 LITTLE STEVEN one that paired up
wins though HARD efforts in both to project at the least regression and look
for alternatives if they land at shorter odds.
In addition to LITTLE STEVEN, trainer C. Winebaugh
represented by #7 WICKED SURPRISE one that might have to revert back to a
tracking runstyle with other E/EP types in this field as far as trip. Trip
should be noted in the two starts this season with the TACTIC- returning from
the layoff on 5/15 and TROUBLE_S SAVED with a NO_PUSH on 5/29 appearing no worse
for the wear on the 10-day turnaround.
While the Snowflake and lower SpeedRate are noted there are
still many EP Types and more than half of the field to the left of the y-axis
something to upgrade not only SIXWILLBERICH but could even consider #1 LINE TO
GAIN in that role and #3 EL MUCHO where a top effort is key though handled the
turf with a sneaky good effort on 5/15 with ground loss/X_WIDE trip.