Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 SURPRISE ME AGAIN could be overlooked in this field and in contrast to stablemate #3 CURLS NITE OUT returning to this circuit while back in for the claiming tag. SURPRISE ME AGAIN brings in overall upside while making their second start of the season, stretching out in distance and dropping back in to the claiming level, a similar tag par when picking up the win last August. Number wise SURPRISE ME AGAIN holds figures on par from the sophomore season, while in position to step up off those figures now in this second start as a four-year-old.

#1 WHAT’S TO DO takes a slight rise in class from the 5/29 race when given a legitimate EX – EXCUSE with the in running TROUBLE+ compromising their chances on the day and in a spot where she appeared competitive off form, figures and class. A step up will be required here in terms of class level, though did record a solid figure going back to 3/7 at OP that number on par with the others in this field including the recent numbers posted from ML favorite #2 ELODINE and racing at the higher class level keying off the Oaklawn placement than today’s rival #4 ROYAL LAUGHTER.

Class also a noted rested for #6 TALL GIRL one scratched from a conditional $4k claiming event on Sunday taking this event instead. The change in class from the other two starts is notable and bringing in progressive form and flow upgrade from those races here. 

Looking at the Plot, the higher SpeedRate paired with the Sun Contention should suit runners from off the pace and in this case both the ML favorites: #5 DANVILLE and #6 MILLARD’S SMILE. With both logical the value should sit with the higher of the two and could land on MILLARD’S SMILE one that looks very “Square” on the Plot with the lack of recency being the one reservation. In terms of DANVILLE their recent form sticks out with the two wins this season during April, now second off back to the claiming level while recording a sneaky effort in the 5/25 allowance – making a CLOSE X_FLOW while in hand (NO_PUSH) and showing up with front wraps on the day.

The opposite end of the pace could see a scenario where #4 EUCLID AVENUE returns to top form with the change in class and tactical change as well looking to be more assertive and where they have been effective on the lead. Apprentice V. Esquivel has started to find some confidence in the saddle and more assertive in their tactics with three of their five wins earned on or near the lead. 

#2 EL MUCHO handled the turf with a sneaky good effort on 5/15 with ground loss/X_WIDE trip. Number wise they hold figures on par as well as some class given prior placement and even going back to the start of the career when the connections thought enough to start in statebred stakes company. They have runstyle versatility passing horses as well as tactical speed keying off the front end MSW win (5.5f off-the-turf event) in 2023 with A. Centeno aboard, a rider that fits this horse well.

Number wise #4 PONCHO ATTACK is a touch on the lighter side though their more competitive races have been recorded over this course and distance. It appears intent for the connections (trainer change) while wheeling back in just one week – they broke their maiden on a 7-day turnaround over this course and distance last July. It should also be noted PONCHO ATTACK was WARM in that 6/5 return, heavily washed out on the day and likely needing the race after the three month break and their prior start in March also off 90-days to suggest this is a positive with the change in timing, a second off.

That pair should hold longer odds in this race especially as #8 SAWYER FOX projects to be a heavy favorite. While capable, they are giving up a lot of recency (647-days) returning here. Number wise they fit though raced perhaps with the track profile breaking their maiden on a day (8/6/23) where the track was upgraded to fast though horses returning covered in mud and closed out that 2023 season on a turf course playing very fast.

#3 TAKEITAWAY brings in current form and upside from the juvenile season from a speed figure standpoint. They will make their first start on the turf though present physically “surface versatile” and should carry their dirt form and figures over to the grass.

Form should also hold for the established older pair of #6 A P BLAZING GREEN and #7 VERRAZANOINTHESKY horses holding races at this level, surface and distance coming up short with a winning effort, though to be fair the times they were under similar conditions those races held a higher par than today’s event. Class is a rise for maiden #1 LONE RETURN as well as #5 MISSED OPTION coming off a maiden score to take on winners for the first time. 

Looking at the Plot and with the early speed (Q1) coming from the inside in #1 SECESSION and the outside with #6 THE RIDGE horses that also present as the first and second projected betting choices on the ML should present value on others.

#4 TALLAPOOSA was upgraded off buried form with a key post and dynamic change picking up the N2 win earlier this month. They look to find a similar dynamic and for a tracking trip where they could find similar to the 6/1 race in running and outcome. #5 ANCIENT MAN is a deeper closer and at the 5.5f distance needs a lot of racing luck though not at all out of it as one that should be at longer odds in this field, is worth inclusion.

Both #2 CHAMPAGNE MIKE and #3 I’M YOUR CAPTAIN can add earlier speed while that is more obvious with I’M YOUR CAPTAIN when looking at Surface/Distance moving to Q1 and less obvious with CHAMPAGNE MIKE, one that has buried early speed and arguably their best when on or near the lead and could fall into a similar trip to TALLAPOOSA. In addition, they bring in a positive “every other” form cycle pattern and should be sitting on a peak effort here. 

#2 CATHOLIC SUE requires value with the rise in class though a case can be made keying off the form from last season under similar conditions around two turns on the turf. That includes recording a B OptixGRADE (B = a winning effort for the level) back on 9/19. That was recorded with a higher race par than today’s event and with a similar inside post and should look to save ground and close (Q4 Square) with today’s race shape – Sun/63 SpeedRate.

#4 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN also recorded a B OptixGRADE under similar conditions closing out 2024 in the 10/10 event. They bring in progressive form this season and return from the two most recent starts with the change back in against F&M. In terms of pace, GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN brings in tactical speed though not an outright “need the lead” type like some others in this field appear to be.

A case can be made for #6 MADELYN ATTACK in here though still need to be sold on fair odds returning from the layoff in this spot. Going back to last year, she showed progressive with racing and the race at this level, the common race with CATHOLIC SUE on 9/19, was WASTED prerace and forced to make a WIDE RUSH into an honest early pace and required the time off given the visuals from 10/29 at FAN/FP.

#7 HIDDEN SPIN projected to IMPROVE from the 1/26 effort, a race returning from the extended 547-day layoff and did just that leading up to the maiden score  (bet down from 15-1 ML) on 5/2 at FON. In terms of figures and class she fits and should handle the surface switch back to the grass while unknown in terms of distance stretching out for the first time and with other pace setting types in this field with an outside draw to consider on trip. 

#6 LEGALLY LUCKY had a live look at this level and in the 5/29 common race to give a look back from that group returning here. Her race could have over at the start breaking SLOG and TROUBLE_S carried WIDE behind a Very Slow early and late pace unable to show her best on the day. The form and figures from Oaklawn stack up on par and holds a dominant win over this course and two turn distance from last September.

From the 5/29 common race J. Felix guided #5 TWO HEARTED to an ideal trip covered up closer to the moderate pace and allowing her that first CLOSE run on stablemate rival #1 GHAALEB’S RANGER – upgraded from the TROUBLE_S and making a MOVE against the race dynamic. #3 PAST SALAD RHONDA was stepping up on the day and while carried as part of the early pace in a DUEL was questionable leading in as that race par was higher than her two April races; including the 4/27 common race with #3 AUTISM COMPASSION the PERFECT winner that day. Today’s par is lower than the 5/29 event, the other upgrade for LEGALLY LUCKY here. 

#8 SADIE’S SWEET RIDE returns with the experience and upside for this second start and from the 6/1 debut – a race that appeared  a PREP despite being shorter odds of the two C. Block runners following a TROUBLE_S showing interest in running, finishing in a blanket for show/deeper minors and continued to GALLOP+ out strongly after the wire.

J. Felix sticking with SADIE’S SWEET RIDE and departing #3 ROARING VIXEN. Though not without a look in here and could be a live pick up mount for F. Reyes. ROARING VIXEN with benefit of experience in this third career start and further upgrade from the visuals as they project to move up on the TURF. Common rivals #2 BALLYBAY BEAUTY should land attention again and shorter odds of the two especially with the connections and finishing one placing better while the two sharing the C+ OptixGRADE.

The move to the TURF should also upgrade #7 LA REYNITA following the group from the 5/22 common race, though does find the distance change and still unproven around two-turns. #5 TAKE THE HEAT also given the TURF upgrade, though in terms of class does find a move up back at the MSW level and perhaps something to consider on the win end while keeping in the mix for underneath at longer odds.

#9 BUTTONS AND LACE also finding the distance and surface change returning for this second start. She also find a change in class moving to open company though compared to some of the others closer to a lateral change keying off the par. While BUTTONS AND LACE did come up short as the favorite on 5/15 her trip dueling between horses (and with the open length BOS winner, Disguised Devil) was not the most ideal and could easily avoid that with this outside draw, something of a different hurdle all together and should look to see them clear and use that sprint speed right from the jump. 

Really hard not to endorse 2-ELODINE as she figures to go favored in this spot. She has been solid at the distance and has enough speed to rate close in a race lacking of pace. She hasn't been worse than second in five starts on the year and should be right there once again. 3-CURLS NITE OUT was solid in an allowance win here on opening weekend. She went to Churchill for her last and caught a sloppy surface. She comes back to Hawthorne today as she could rate close as well. 5-SUPRISE ME AGAIN ran well in her first start of the meet while sprinting. She won around two turns here last fall and has had success with Colon in the saddle.

The controlling pace should come from 4-EUCLID AVENUE as there's little early speed in here. He ran well when making the lead at Oaklawn on April 6 and should be headed for the top once again. 5-DANVILLE likes this track and fits well at this level. He was a sharp winner in starts two and three back and may have to rate closer, much like he did in his April 6 start. 6-MILLARD'S SMILE will need some pace to chase as he figures to settle early and run on late. He has also run well at Hawthorne as the barn has had a fine meet.

Based on the recent races, 3-TAKEITAWAY looks to be a factor as he tries the turf for the first time. He has speed in a race that lacks pace as he could look to clear and never look back.8-SAWYER FOX will take a lot of action in here. The main concern for him is the layoff as this is his first start back since the fall of 2023. His works are solid and the only question is if he will need a race off the layoff. 6-A P BLAZING GREEN has been at his best on turf as he returns to the state-bred ranks. With the bug girl aboard I expect some early speed from him as he should be a threat throughout.

With the top two likely betting choices both with speed, I'll look to 4-TALLAPOOSA as he figures to rate just behind the contested pace and run on in the lane. He was a sharp winner in his last and gets Mojica back aboard. 1-SECESSION will likely be winging in from the inside as he drops slightly from his last start. Look for him to try to make the top and never look back. That trip could be compromised by the speed of 6-THE RIDGE, as he makes his second start of the year. If he can beat Secession to the top, he potentially could steal this one.

Every horse in here is in with a shot. With a chance to show some speed, I'll look to 5-TEXAS HOTTIE as she looks to reverse some poor recent form. She was solid in a turf sprint last June and should be able to clear with the added distance. 4-GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN is the other that should flash some early speed. She led late into the lane in her last and finds things a bit easier in this spot today. 8-CHEVAL B will be looking for some pace to chasse. She was in tougher in her last as the class relief could move her up.

The form of 2-PASTA SALAD RHONDA has been excellent since her return to Hawthorne. She has rated closer in her last couple as there hasn't been much early pace and she could get that same trip again in here. She grinds in the lane and figures to threaten once again. 5-TWO HEARTED pulled off an upset score in her last as she sat closer and wore down the leaders late. She likes this track and the barn has had a great meet. 3-AUTISM COMPASSION was a game winner in her last. She defeated Pasta Salad Rhonda in that spot but has been away since that April 27 start. Her works are consistent though as she looks fit and ready for today's race.

A good field of maidens closes the day with a couple of well regarded runners from their debuts returning. Went on top to 2-BALLYBAY BEAUTY as she was sent away as the 6-5 choice in her debut but only raced evenly in that spot. With the shift to turf and added distance, I expect she sit close early and is a factor throughout. 9-BUTTONS AND LACE was the 3-5 favorite in her first start but was no match for Disguised Devil on that day. She switches over to the turf here as her breeding suggests she can run all day. 8-SADIE'S SWEET RIDE debuted on the grass as she got away slowly in that spot. The race under her belt should help as she looks to rally in the lane.

2-ELODINE got good late last year and hasn’t slowed down. She finished in the money in her last eight but has been especially good lately, winning three of her last four and finishing second in the other. Good speed should propel her right to the early lead. Might not get caught. Trainer Chris Block has a pair in the race. 3-CURLS NITE OUT might be the better of the two. She couldn’t handle good claimers at Churchill in her most recent race but she did win an allowance here in her prior start here, beating the highly-regarded Starina. 5-SUPRISE ME AGAIN’s first start of the meet wasn’t great but there was some promise. She stretches to what should be a better distance. She’ll do her best running late. The extra real estate can only help. 

5-DANVILLE was pretty much outmatched when taking on allowance rivals in his most recent start but he drops to a level where he should be far more successful. He won his previous two against claimers similar to these. Could get back on the winning track. 4-EUCLID AVENUE is another who will have a far better chance at this level. He has shown little in his first two races of the meet but he did wire the field at Oaklawn, beating higher-priced claimers, three races back. 3-MON AMI FUZZIE and 1-REGIMENTAL both won their last races and both are capable of finishing with a rush.

8-SAWYER FOX returns from a long layoff. He always showed ability and he finished second versus good open allowance company in his lone turf race but he is making his first start since September of 2023. However, trust the connections and trust the good workouts. He should be ready for these Illinois breds. It seems like a wide open race after top pick. Think 4-PONCHO ATTACK has a better chance than most. His recent form has been terrible but he was generally competitive in his local turf races and he finished second the last time he met Illinois breds. 3-TAKE IT AWAY makes his turf debut. He doesn’t appear to be quite as quick as top choice but there’s no guarantee that Sawyer Fox is still that quick coming off a year and a half layoff. 

This could be an interesting race.  4-TALLAPOUSA could get the right trip. He looked extra sharp in last while scoring his second career victory. With Secession and The Ridge likely to be fighting it out on the front end, he could be tracking that heated pace and run by late, though would like his chances better if this race was six furlongs. 1-SECESSION ran out of gas late in last at Fairmount while meeting runners at a higher claiming level but he dominated runners here in his previous start. Drops a notch in claiming price but runs into some other quick rivals that are going to give him a run for the money, at least early. 6-THE RIDGE displayed good speed in last, his first start since August but he seemed pretty gassed after a half mile and faded to last. Chances are he’ll be fitter for this race, however, and he could go head-to-head with Secession all the way around. 

5-TWO HEARTED can win right back. She surprised many of these rivals with a $28 score in her last start. But she has showed marked improvement with each passing start since getting claimed by this barn. The pace of this race should be honest. She could run them down again. 2-PASTA SALAD RHONDA is in great form right now. She was narrowly beaten in her two starts since getting claimed by this barn. Meets many of the same rivals today but it could finally be her turn. 3-AUTISM COMPASSION could turn out to be the best of the speed. She won her last after tracking the early pace, beating many of these same rivals. She probably won’t be left alone on the early lead but maybe she can put her other speedy rivals away.  

2-BALLYBAY BEAUTY was favored in her lone start but never seemed to recover after getting off to a poor start. Tries turf for sharp connections. Have to give her another chance. 1-SHAN'S REQUEST might do it at first asking. This well-bred runner has had a series of good workouts coming into her career debut. Could be ready for these. 8-SADIE'S SWEET RIDE is hard to figure. She races for one of the top turf barns, but she didn’t get a lot of action at the windows and she didn’t show much in her lone start. Still, anything racing for the Block barn, especially on the lawn, deserves serious consideration.