Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 SURPRISE ME AGAIN could be overlooked in this field and in contrast to stablemate #3 CURLS NITE OUT returning to this circuit while back in for the claiming tag. SURPRISE ME AGAIN brings in overall upside while making their second start of the season, stretching out in distance and dropping back in to the claiming level, a similar tag par when picking up the win last August. Number wise SURPRISE ME AGAIN holds figures on par from the sophomore season, while in position to step up off those figures now in this second start as a four-year-old.

#1 WHAT’S TO DO takes a slight rise in class from the 5/29 race when given a legitimate EX – EXCUSE with the in running TROUBLE+ compromising their chances on the day and in a spot where she appeared competitive off form, figures and class. A step up will be required here in terms of class level, though did record a solid figure going back to 3/7 at OP that number on par with the others in this field including the recent numbers posted from ML favorite #2 ELODINE and racing at the higher class level keying off the Oaklawn placement than today’s rival #4 ROYAL LAUGHTER.

Class also a noted rested for #6 TALL GIRL one scratched from a conditional $4k claiming event on Sunday taking this event instead. The change in class from the other two starts is notable and bringing in progressive form and flow upgrade from those races here. 

Looking at the Plot, the higher SpeedRate paired with the Sun Contention should suit runners from off the pace and in this case both the ML favorites: #5 DANVILLE and #6 MILLARD’S SMILE. With both logical the value should sit with the higher of the two and could land on MILLARD’S SMILE one that looks very “Square” on the Plot with the lack of recency being the one reservation. In terms of DANVILLE their recent form sticks out with the two wins this season during April, now second off back to the claiming level while recording a sneaky effort in the 5/25 allowance – making a CLOSE X_FLOW while in hand (NO_PUSH) and showing up with front wraps on the day.

The opposite end of the pace could see a scenario where #4 EUCLID AVENUE returns to top form with the change in class and tactical change as well looking to be more assertive and where they have been effective on the lead. Apprentice V. Esquivel has started to find some confidence in the saddle and more assertive in their tactics with three of their five wins earned on or near the lead. 

#2 EL MUCHO handled the turf with a sneaky good effort on 5/15 with ground loss/X_WIDE trip. Number wise they hold figures on par as well as some class given prior placement and even going back to the start of the career when the connections thought enough to start in statebred stakes company. They have runstyle versatility passing horses as well as tactical speed keying off the front end MSW win (5.5f off-the-turf event) in 2023 with A. Centeno aboard, a rider that fits this horse well.

Number wise #4 PONCHO ATTACK is a touch on the lighter side though their more competitive races have been recorded over this course and distance. It appears intent for the connections (trainer change) while wheeling back in just one week – they broke their maiden on a 7-day turnaround over this course and distance last July. It should also be noted PONCHO ATTACK was WARM in that 6/5 return, heavily washed out on the day and likely needing the race after the three month break and their prior start in March also off 90-days to suggest this is a positive with the change in timing, a second off.

That pair should hold longer odds in this race especially as #8 SAWYER FOX projects to be a heavy favorite. While capable, they are giving up a lot of recency (647-days) returning here. Number wise they fit though raced perhaps with the track profile breaking their maiden on a day (8/6/23) where the track was upgraded to fast though horses returning covered in mud and closed out that 2023 season on a turf course playing very fast.

#3 TAKEITAWAY brings in current form and upside from the juvenile season from a speed figure standpoint. They will make their first start on the turf though present physically “surface versatile” and should carry their dirt form and figures over to the grass.

Form should also hold for the established older pair of #6 A P BLAZING GREEN and #7 VERRAZANOINTHESKY horses holding races at this level, surface and distance coming up short with a winning effort, though to be fair the times they were under similar conditions those races held a higher par than today’s event. Class is a rise for maiden #1 LONE RETURN as well as #5 MISSED OPTION coming off a maiden score to take on winners for the first time. 

Looking at the Plot and with the early speed (Q1) coming from the inside in #1 SECESSION and the outside with #6 THE RIDGE horses that also present as the first and second projected betting choices on the ML should present value on others.

#4 TALLAPOOSA was upgraded off buried form with a key post and dynamic change picking up the N2 win earlier this month. They look to find a similar dynamic and for a tracking trip where they could find similar to the 6/1 race in running and outcome. #5 ANCIENT MAN is a deeper closer and at the 5.5f distance needs a lot of racing luck though not at all out of it as one that should be at longer odds in this field, is worth inclusion.

Both #2 CHAMPAGNE MIKE and #3 I’M YOUR CAPTAIN can add earlier speed while that is more obvious with I’M YOUR CAPTAIN when looking at Surface/Distance moving to Q1 and less obvious with CHAMPAGNE MIKE, one that has buried early speed and arguably their best when on or near the lead and could fall into a similar trip to TALLAPOOSA. In addition, they bring in a positive “every other” form cycle pattern and should be sitting on a peak effort here. 

#2 CATHOLIC SUE requires value with the rise in class though a case can be made keying off the form from last season under similar conditions around two turns on the turf. That includes recording a B OptixGRADE (B = a winning effort for the level) back on 9/19. That was recorded with a higher race par than today’s event and with a similar inside post and should look to save ground and close (Q4 Square) with today’s race shape – Sun/63 SpeedRate.

#4 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN also recorded a B OptixGRADE under similar conditions closing out 2024 in the 10/10 event. They bring in progressive form this season and return from the two most recent starts with the change back in against F&M. In terms of pace, GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN brings in tactical speed though not an outright “need the lead” type like some others in this field appear to be.

A case can be made for #6 MADELYN ATTACK in here though still need to be sold on fair odds returning from the layoff in this spot. Going back to last year, she showed progressive with racing and the race at this level, the common race with CATHOLIC SUE on 9/19, was WASTED prerace and forced to make a WIDE RUSH into an honest early pace and required the time off given the visuals from 10/29 at FAN/FP.

#7 HIDDEN SPIN projected to IMPROVE from the 1/26 effort, a race returning from the extended 547-day layoff and did just that leading up to the maiden score  (bet down from 15-1 ML) on 5/2 at FON. In terms of figures and class she fits and should handle the surface switch back to the grass while unknown in terms of distance stretching out for the first time and with other pace setting types in this field with an outside draw to consider on trip. 

#6 LEGALLY LUCKY had a live look at this level and in the 5/29 common race to give a look back from that group returning here. Her race could have over at the start breaking SLOG and TROUBLE_S carried WIDE behind a Very Slow early and late pace unable to show her best on the day. The form and figures from Oaklawn stack up on par and holds a dominant win over this course and two turn distance from last September.

From the 5/29 common race J. Felix guided #5 TWO HEARTED to an ideal trip covered up closer to the moderate pace and allowing her that first CLOSE run on stablemate rival #1 GHAALEB’S RANGER – upgraded from the TROUBLE_S and making a MOVE against the race dynamic. #3 PAST SALAD RHONDA was stepping up on the day and while carried as part of the early pace in a DUEL was questionable leading in as that race par was higher than her two April races; including the 4/27 common race with #3 AUTISM COMPASSION the PERFECT winner that day. Today’s par is lower than the 5/29 event, the other upgrade for LEGALLY LUCKY here. 

#8 SADIE’S SWEET RIDE returns with the experience and upside for this second start and from the 6/1 debut – a race that appeared  a PREP despite being shorter odds of the two C. Block runners following a TROUBLE_S showing interest in running, finishing in a blanket for show/deeper minors and continued to GALLOP+ out strongly after the wire.

J. Felix sticking with SADIE’S SWEET RIDE and departing #3 ROARING VIXEN. Though not without a look in here and could be a live pick up mount for F. Reyes. ROARING VIXEN with benefit of experience in this third career start and further upgrade from the visuals as they project to move up on the TURF. Common rivals #2 BALLYBAY BEAUTY should land attention again and shorter odds of the two especially with the connections and finishing one placing better while the two sharing the C+ OptixGRADE.

The move to the TURF should also upgrade #7 LA REYNITA following the group from the 5/22 common race, though does find the distance change and still unproven around two-turns. #5 TAKE THE HEAT also given the TURF upgrade, though in terms of class does find a move up back at the MSW level and perhaps something to consider on the win end while keeping in the mix for underneath at longer odds.

#9 BUTTONS AND LACE also finding the distance and surface change returning for this second start. She also find a change in class moving to open company though compared to some of the others closer to a lateral change keying off the par. While BUTTONS AND LACE did come up short as the favorite on 5/15 her trip dueling between horses (and with the open length BOS winner, Disguised Devil) was not the most ideal and could easily avoid that with this outside draw, something of a different hurdle all together and should look to see them clear and use that sprint speed right from the jump.