Handicapper Tips & Picks

Starting the analysis with the lone runner with racing experience #5 SHEZ TWISTED one that has come up short in the two starts at a short number. That brings along reservations at the same time holds that experience edge and along with early speed for this shorter 4.5f distance and first start at Hawthorne where they had been training all along. Stablemate #4 BIAGODDESS with a shorter published work tab and gaps is not a usual pattern for this barn, worth getting a look at in the paddock as well as the board.

M. Boyce also with the pair of #1 TUM TAP and #3 KICKIN two with nearly identical work tabs and both in capable hands with their riders assigned. A. Centeno has been aboard four of those FTS all ITM with one winner – Indyville last season and lands on TUM TAP where L. Colon has had success for this barn on this circuit and with filly though often at longer with main mount, Journeyist (one we will see in the feature later on the card) and was aboard Rumbrandt for the tracking win in the 2023 Debutante at FP.

#7 SHOVE OFF is worth a mention of the group showing up here from FP where they have been training. D. Martin has a smaller sample of FTS 2yo over the years with decent records and those runners showing a similar work tab to prepare for a debut. That includes the two FTS on this circuit posting speed figures that might be a touch short on the win end though not dismissed for minors. 

The class relief appears key for #2 RAMBERT in this second start off the layoff. They will also reunite with O. Hernandez, a rider aboard with suggest over this course and distance last year and that follows the TACTIC- trip in the return last month along with the DROP.

They meet a common rival in the turf sprints last season with #3 FROSTED ÉCLAIR also returning with the change in class and surface with the key rider change back to J. Felix, the rider that has that success aboard going back to 2023 with her MSW win. While FROSTED ÉCLAIR can show early speed, she often has gate issues and another key with J. Felix, a rider that has been able to rate and find the right tracking timing to win.

#5 CHROME ATTACK also from those turf sprint common races last year with number in the past that fit on par. The return on 5/10 appeared a PREP and on the day was WARM and not asked for their best (NO_PUSH) and physically better suited to the TURF, the surface switch here. J. Loveberry taking over will get attention in this case and could come down from the ML.

The odds should stay long with #7 BALI BABY and some necessary price compensation as she has been without a win since November 2022. With that said, she holds buried form especially in the races over this course and distance and some current form with the recent N3 claiming events, races with a higher par than today’s event and could be taken closer to a lateral move here. Number wise BALI BABY is not always as consistent as #8 COVENANT LADY though right there on her best day. Those two share a similar runstyle and that must be considered with value on COVENANT LADY as a closer and with the distance cut back -- something not necessarily planned as they were entered at HS Indy back in a route race on 6/7 and scratched when those races were taken off the turf. 

Tough to get too creative in here with the projected favorites logical: #7 SILKY WARRIOR took the class drop to this level and distance on 5/25 recording a B OptixGRADE in the place finish making a WIDE MOVE together at the wire with pacesetting winner, Lily’s Creed. #2 NO NANNETTE NO (stablemate of Lily’s Creed) was right there behind that pair making a late move after the SLOG and has consistent races at this level course and distance.

Trying to mix in a price, #1 KITTEN ROCKS could be sitting on their peak effort – third off with the stretch out in distance. Her better races back in 2022-23 are right there with the other two though must show she can get back to those efforts and at the least should hold price compensation. 

The long layoff could be a hurdle for #1 BLURT as they return here though otherwise fit this condition (N2 in 2025 making their first start of the season) and fit in terms of runstyle with the rail draw and looking at the Plot (Q1 Circle) could hold a pace advantage on the front end.

That runstyle sits in contrast to #2 CODE RUNNER one that ran on too late as the massive favorite on 5/25 and the knock on that day as a closer at a short price, those factors not to be ignored again though does find a slightly higher SpeedRate today, to their benefit. The trip and first run looked to and indeed set up for #5 TWO COOKIE RULE on the day and looking at the Plot, should try to secure that similar run today, however CODE RUNNER with the post change and timing along with rider change might not allow for that to repeat. #6 MISTER CHARMING also with that runstyle from the common race and holding form once again and with longer odds to at the least include for minors.

#7 FAMILY TRADITION wheels right back after catching the WEATHER impacted track conditions last week. While it could be said, they did not handle the track their action on the day has been observed at other times this season when under favorable “fast” conditions. The outside draw and every other pattern given them as much on a look in this race and could be there today; though still requires price compensation with their racing antics. 

#1 QUALITY STORM improved with racing last season and similar could be started coming back in 2025 for this sophomore runner. They made their first start of the year over this course and shorter 5f distance as the only 3yo in the field on 4/10 showing run primarily after the wire putting in a strong GALLOP+ and overall a useful PREP. They have moved forward with each race and subtle trips while in at a higher level, par and purse making those softer adjustments here.

The class change also comes into play for #6 CUCUY though in terms of par is closer to a lateral move from their most recent races. The distance change should allow for fitness though at the same time still must prove themselves shorter and value concerns as they should gather attention for the connections and with the rider change to J. Loveberry.  The distance change also noted for #3 VINO COURAGIO in this first start of the season and a lateral move when looking at par from the TAM series of races.

The class change is a clear lateral move for #2 SHAMAN SEZ one that should continue to hold their form. Their form was overlooked back on 5/8 (lower par than today) at 41-1 recording a B OptixGRADE and coming back two weeks ago added front wraps, a lower recorded speed figure though still a B-  effort. The same B- OptixGRADE recorded for #7 IDIOSYNCRASIES as well as #8 MINIMO one that should be overlooked here (value) with the change in finishing positions from the 6/1 common race.

This might not be the ideal spot for the 4yo filly #9 GOLDEN NOTE however holds overall upside with distance change and class change in this second start against winners and coming back from a TROUBLE trip while also uncharacteristically WARM on 5/29. Looking at the Plot a case can be made for her (a similar position and shape to IDIOSYNCRASIES) and especially if overlooked on the board. 

ILLINOIS PRINCESS HANDICAP

While many recent stakes races feature quality though not often much quantity (or betting opportunity) this is not that. There are plenty of contenders, story lines and competitive nature of the overall race shape to make cases for here. The race shape should play a role in the outcome especially when looking at the Plot and dynamic with the Sun Contention paired with the higher SpeedRate.

Both #3 OEUVRE and #9 KATIE M’LADY show up on the Plot above the ParLine (part of the higher SpeedRate) where KATIE M’LADY sure to take up her familiar position on the front end while in this first start back off the layoff. OEUVRE is not a “need the lead” though has stretching out brings in natural early speed and with the draw and assertive rider does not project to be too far off the early pace here. Those two hold the class and speed figure edge over their stablemates: #1 JOURNEYIST and #6 R. KATIEBUG (M. Boyce) and C. Block with #2 MISS RIVER RAT -- one that could be a touch short of contender however today’s noted race shape and rider change to O. Mojica as positives to include underneath.

The early pace should also be kept honest with #8 GIRL OF MY DREAMS on the stretch out in distance and one that has yet to show they can win by passing. Their stablemate #7 BREEZING ALONG does not hold any speed figure edge though has some upside showing improving with age and established form around two turns. They also bring upside in this second start of the cycle coming out of the 5/11 with the TROUBLES+, a legitimate stumble out of the gate and while in that allowance race, still noted $134k purse.

The race shape is the prime concern for #4 YANKEE DOLLAR one that otherwise appears very live in this spot. She has stakes form and including a pair of listed stakes wins at Turf Paradise and in this second start off the layoff with the key stretch out in distance form what appeared on paper a likely prep sprinting for the first time in that 5/29 return – all signs pointing to a peak effort today.

Similar second off intent follows #5 QUEEN JUDITH one that turned in a B OptixGRADE in the 5/8 place finish and noted in running TROUBLE making a WIDE MOVE and all around honest effort. The change in dynamic today moves them up and has been competitive under similar Sun dynamics in the past including the BTL allowance back in April 2023 at KEE a higher par than today’s stakes race and higher purse as well. 

#4 EVEN THE WIND return under similar conditions with a lower par from the 5/29 start. They broke SLOG, not uncommon for them and made up ground through TRAFFIC with the CLOSE for place together with first run winner, Hawks Creek. The early pace should be honest (even without the MTO) looking at the Plot and in part to the inclusion of their stablemate #8 NOT FALLING BACK coming off a dominant B+ MCL win and showing as much in terms of early speed in the two MSW races last year.  

That race dynamic and looking at Surface/Distance OptixPLOT moves up #7 PROFESSOR HIGGINS especially at the longer odds, a similar position/shape to EVEN THE WIND. Class is a rise for PROFESSOR HIGGINS from the 5/18 $25k N2 event, and noted they WASTED a lot of energy prerace and have been given more time between starts here. In terms of class, this is a rise and though to their credit held their own in the N1 allowance races last season, both on the turf and main track.

That surface/distance versatility also noted for #6 BETTERA one that has been consistent this year and today’s allowance a lateral move on this circuit from the conditional claiming events at FG and OP and catching a lower par here than the main track 5/25 allowance in this second start for the connections.

#1 TIME MUSE can be included with their runstyle and form second off returning from a les than ideal trip that began at the GATE (fractious) carried to the TACTIC- playing a role in the TROUBLE and competitive B- OptixGRADE and outcome all things considered. 

Separating the two P. D'Amato #9 BROSKI is preferred back at a mile where they recorded a B OptixGRADE under similar conditions back on 4/26 over  B-#4 CUBAN CONFUSION on the day. #5 MIDNIGHT STRIKE also from that common race can be upgraded overall and with each race showing improvement. 

The STRETCH out in distance is a positive change on second time starter #8 MAKUTU however has a bigger hurdle with the change in class. 

#3 MISS MEAGHER stretch out in this second start off the layoff and subtle change in class. The mile distance was the intention going back to their local debut at DMR last September - an EX/EXCUSE trip on the day and then the layoff that followed the SLOG TROUBLE_S October race. 

#2 READY TO DARE might prefer ONE_TURN with some distance limitations, though with the change in class, that could be enough to carry them through under these conditions. 

#5 DOUBLE CAPPUCCINO brings in current form and should hold some value with the surface switch. As far as the two dirt sprints as a juvenile, they required added ground and unable to STRETCH out at that time, playing a bigger role in the outcome than the main track surface alone. 

#5 NEEDLEPOINT stretches back out after a legitimate EX/EXCUSE on 5/3. The two mild races at this level starting off the year held sneaky trips with upside. That started off the season with a TRAFFIC X_FLOW MOVE and strong GALLOP+ back on 2/22 followed by a TACTIC- TROUBLE trip on 3/22 paired with a rider change that followed. NEEDLEPOINT recorded a B- OptixGRADE in that 2/22 race the same B- OptixGRADE as rival #6 ETERNAL REIGN with that place finish with more favorable ground SAVED trip. 

#9 CROSSANNA still must step up in the speed figure department though to her credit returned from the layoff at this level, first on the circuit and sprint distance with a WIDE CLOSE and strong GALLOP+ to support the return to the route distance here. Each race back at Hawthorne in 2024 was BTL on debut, a B OptixGRADE with the place finish behind a Very Slow early pace and following three scratches with races taken off-the-turf was dominant with the B+ OptixGRADE MSW win in August closing out 2024. 

Having run a couple of races should help 5-SHEZ TWISTED. She has worked well over this track and was thought enough of to debut at Churchill. She should be sitting on a good performance tonight. 3-KICKIN has worked well toward the debut. The Boyce barn is going well of late as we may see early speed in here. 6-BOOM BOOM BELL has also worked well leading into this race. She comes in with a solid pair of gate drills as she runs for a barn that has them ready early.

5-CHROME ATTACK has been at her best in turf sprints. She has three starts on the year and benefits from class relief in here. 2-RAMBERT has speed as she is a proven turf sprinter. If she can beat More Than A Diva to the top, she should be tough to catch. 8-COVENANT LADY will benefit from a contested pace. She ran well on the grass in her last and should be closing with a rush.

7-SILKY WARRIOR ran well in her last as she rated closer early and battled to the wire. There's no pace in this race as she should be close once again. 5-HEAVENLY HASH is the other that could show speed as she stretches out in here. She likes this track and should be a square price. 2-NO NANNETTE NO chased a slow pace in her last and was grinding in the lane. She has been better in her two Hawthorne starts on the year and gets Murrill in the saddle once again.

5-TWO COOKIE RULE ran a solid race in his last, getting up right at the wire. He should get some pace to chase once again and could repeat that performance. 2-CODE RUNNER ran a disappointing race as he was hung wide in his last. He runs for a new barn here but stays at the same level as he figures to be a factor once again. 6-MISTER CHARMING stalked and battled to the wire in his last. His best races have come here at Hawthorne as he should provide some value.

Let's see if 7-IDIOSYNCRASIES can show speed like he did in his last and hang around late. He doesn't need the lead to win but shouldn't be too far back at any point.1-QUALITY STORM takes the class drop as he looks to get a confidence boost. He has some tactical speed but figures to rate and rally in here. 6-CUCUY figures to be tough based on speed figures. The only questions is the distance. He's been going around two turns of late but takes the turn back in here.

A solid stakes field here as numerous runners are in with a shot. 7-BREEZING ALONG is the invader in this spot but she figures off a recent strong effort on the grass at Churchill. She has tactical speed and should be able to tuck in just off the early pace. 3-OEUVRE just surpassed $1 million in earnings with the victory here in her last. She is so versatile and has found the board in four of five starts at a mile. 9-KATIE M'LADY loves this course and has speed. She will have to work a bit to clear from the outside as she's as game as they come.

Let's see if the inside draw and a trip from the second flight benefits 1-TIME MUSE. He moved back to the turf for his last and ran a game race. With three likely to show speed ahead of him, expect him to try to get the jump on the late closers. 4-EVEN THE WIND rallied late in his last and just missed. He should be tough once again for his second start of the year as he figures to take a good amount of action. 8-NOT FALLING BACK ran a big race with a confidence boost last out. He made the top and just ran off in the lane. Let's see if he shows speed once again.

5-SHEZ TWISTED already makes the third start of her career. She showed little in her debut but ran far better when meeting the boys in last at Presque Isle. She was favored in both prior races and will likely go off as a huge favorite again today. They’ll have to catch her. It’s a bit of a crapshoot after top choice. Looking at the runner from the same barn as top choice, 4-BIAGODDESS. Her drills aren’t as fast as those of some in here but her barn wins with around 40% 1st timers and nearly the same with babies. Trainer Michele Boyce also has a couple first timers and she has also been quite successful with those debuting. 1-TUM TAP isn’t working quite as quickly as stablemate Kickin but she will utilize the rider that Boyce most often uses.  

2-RAMBERT seems most likely. Speedy miss is dropping to her lowest level in over a year. She was in far too tough in her first race of the meet but they could have a much harder time catching her at this level. 8-COVENANT LADY looks like the best closer. Although she has had some success at this distance, however, she might prefer longer distances. But the pace of this race should be quick which could enhance her chances. 5-CHROME ATTACK drops to a career low. Hos recent races haven’t been that sharp but she’ll be back on the Hawthorne turf for the first time since September and she’s always done her best running here. 

7-SILKY WARRIOR just missed. She has been consistently good when she races at or near this level. Most she meets today are in poor form. There’s a good chance she’ll take them late. 2-NO NANNETTE NO finished third in last, a few lengths behind top choice, but she’s making her third start of the year and she should be at the top of her game for this race. Will attack in the stretch.  None in here are what you would consider to be quick but 5-HEAVENLY HASH, with the stretch out, could find herself on the lead. Not sure how long she’ll last but if allowed to relax on the lead, she could be right there to the finish.  

Have to give 2-CODE RUNNER the benefit of the doubt. He crushed a group at this level two races back and was expected to repeat against the same foes in last but he just didn’t fire. He was claimed from those last two starts and is now in a barn winning 28% at the meet and 31% with first-time claims. Guessing he’ll bounce back. It’s surprising to see 1-BLURT racing for this trainer but he has been training well for his first start of the year and you can be pretty sure this trainer wouldn’t run him if he didn’t think he was ready. He’s probably the quickest of these. He wired the field in his final start of 2024. Could start his 2025 season the same way. Don't forget 4-GITA'S LAD. He was favored in his first three races of the year and did display good speed in all four of his 2025 races but he’s finally dropping to an easier level. Could challenge for the early lead and if Blurt is a bit short off the layoff, he might be able to zip right by. 6-MISTER CHARMING likely adds to the pace. 5-TWO COOKIE RULE just won at this level beating many of these foes. 

 9-GOLDEN NOTE was in too tough in last, her first start versus winners. She displayed decent speed but lost all chance when she clipped heels in that troubled-filled race. Drops in class and turns back in distance. Think we’ll see a far improved effort today. 6-CUCUY also drops and turns back. She showed little in her only previous race at this distance but she had been in good form in Florida prior to that last start. Might bounce back. 1-QUALITY STORM meets her easiest field ever. She’ll also be racing with second-time Lasix. Could be prepared to give these rivals a run for the money. 

Very competitive race. You should get a good price on whoever you bet...if they win of course. 4-EVEN THE WIN is the logical choice, however. He just missed in last, his first race since August. He’ll be better prepared for this event and the fact that the race is loaded with speed should ensure he’ll get the fast pace ahead of him that he needs to fully utilize his closing move. 1-TIME MUSE finished a bit behind top choice in last but he had considerable trouble and still wound up finishing third. Could far better with a clean trip. 8-NOT FALLING BACK just graduated in maiden claimers but he did it with a flourish, destroying the field by 15 lengths. Stablemate of top choice isn’t the only speed but if he runs the way he did in last, he just might not get caught.