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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun June 15th, 2025

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Emily's Analysis

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Starting the analysis with the lone runner with racing experience #5 SHEZ TWISTED one that has come up short in the two starts at a short number. That brings along reservations at the same time holds that experience edge and along with early speed for this shorter 4.5f distance and first start at Hawthorne where they had been training all along. Stablemate #4 BIAGODDESS with a shorter published work tab and gaps is not a usual pattern for this barn, worth getting a look at in the paddock as well as the board.

M. Boyce also with the pair of #1 TUM TAP and #3 KICKIN two with nearly identical work tabs and both in capable hands with their riders assigned. A. Centeno has been aboard four of those FTS all ITM with one winner – Indyville last season and lands on TUM TAP where L. Colon has had success for this barn on this circuit and with filly though often at longer with main mount, Journeyist (one we will see in the feature later on the card) and was aboard Rumbrandt for the tracking win in the 2023 Debutante at FP.

#7 SHOVE OFF is worth a mention of the group showing up here from FP where they have been training. D. Martin has a smaller sample of FTS 2yo over the years with decent records and those runners showing a similar work tab to prepare for a debut. That includes the two FTS on this circuit posting speed figures that might be a touch short on the win end though not dismissed for minors. 

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 3:05 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The class relief appears key for #2 RAMBERT in this second start off the layoff. They will also reunite with O. Hernandez, a rider aboard with suggest over this course and distance last year and that follows the TACTIC- trip in the return last month along with the DROP.

They meet a common rival in the turf sprints last season with #3 FROSTED ÉCLAIR also returning with the change in class and surface with the key rider change back to J. Felix, the rider that has that success aboard going back to 2023 with her MSW win. While FROSTED ÉCLAIR can show early speed, she often has gate issues and another key with J. Felix, a rider that has been able to rate and find the right tracking timing to win.

#5 CHROME ATTACK also from those turf sprint common races last year with number in the past that fit on par. The return on 5/10 appeared a PREP and on the day was WARM and not asked for their best (NO_PUSH) and physically better suited to the TURF, the surface switch here. J. Loveberry taking over will get attention in this case and could come down from the ML.

The odds should stay long with #7 BALI BABY and some necessary price compensation as she has been without a win since November 2022. With that said, she holds buried form especially in the races over this course and distance and some current form with the recent N3 claiming events, races with a higher par than today’s event and could be taken closer to a lateral move here. Number wise BALI BABY is not always as consistent as #8 COVENANT LADY though right there on her best day. Those two share a similar runstyle and that must be considered with value on COVENANT LADY as a closer and with the distance cut back -- something not necessarily planned as they were entered at HS Indy back in a route race on 6/7 and scratched when those races were taken off the turf. 

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Tough to get too creative in here with the projected favorites logical: #7 SILKY WARRIOR took the class drop to this level and distance on 5/25 recording a B OptixGRADE in the place finish making a WIDE MOVE together at the wire with pacesetting winner, Lily’s Creed. #2 NO NANNETTE NO (stablemate of Lily’s Creed) was right there behind that pair making a late move after the SLOG and has consistent races at this level course and distance.

Trying to mix in a price, #1 KITTEN ROCKS could be sitting on their peak effort – third off with the stretch out in distance. Her better races back in 2022-23 are right there with the other two though must show she can get back to those efforts and at the least should hold price compensation. 

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The long layoff could be a hurdle for #1 BLURT as they return here though otherwise fit this condition (N2 in 2025 making their first start of the season) and fit in terms of runstyle with the rail draw and looking at the Plot (Q1 Circle) could hold a pace advantage on the front end.

That runstyle sits in contrast to #2 CODE RUNNER one that ran on too late as the massive favorite on 5/25 and the knock on that day as a closer at a short price, those factors not to be ignored again though does find a slightly higher SpeedRate today, to their benefit. The trip and first run looked to and indeed set up for #5 TWO COOKIE RULE on the day and looking at the Plot, should try to secure that similar run today, however CODE RUNNER with the post change and timing along with rider change might not allow for that to repeat. #6 MISTER CHARMING also with that runstyle from the common race and holding form once again and with longer odds to at the least include for minors.

#7 FAMILY TRADITION wheels right back after catching the WEATHER impacted track conditions last week. While it could be said, they did not handle the track their action on the day has been observed at other times this season when under favorable “fast” conditions. The outside draw and every other pattern given them as much on a look in this race and could be there today; though still requires price compensation with their racing antics. 

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:21 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 QUALITY STORM improved with racing last season and similar could be started coming back in 2025 for this sophomore runner. They made their first start of the year over this course and shorter 5f distance as the only 3yo in the field on 4/10 showing run primarily after the wire putting in a strong GALLOP+ and overall a useful PREP. They have moved forward with each race and subtle trips while in at a higher level, par and purse making those softer adjustments here.

The class change also comes into play for #6 CUCUY though in terms of par is closer to a lateral move from their most recent races. The distance change should allow for fitness though at the same time still must prove themselves shorter and value concerns as they should gather attention for the connections and with the rider change to J. Loveberry.  The distance change also noted for #3 VINO COURAGIO in this first start of the season and a lateral move when looking at par from the TAM series of races.

The class change is a clear lateral move for #2 SHAMAN SEZ one that should continue to hold their form. Their form was overlooked back on 5/8 (lower par than today) at 41-1 recording a B OptixGRADE and coming back two weeks ago added front wraps, a lower recorded speed figure though still a B-  effort. The same B- OptixGRADE recorded for #7 IDIOSYNCRASIES as well as #8 MINIMO one that should be overlooked here (value) with the change in finishing positions from the 6/1 common race.

This might not be the ideal spot for the 4yo filly #9 GOLDEN NOTE however holds overall upside with distance change and class change in this second start against winners and coming back from a TROUBLE trip while also uncharacteristically WARM on 5/29. Looking at the Plot a case can be made for her (a similar position and shape to IDIOSYNCRASIES) and especially if overlooked on the board. 

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:47 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

ILLINOIS PRINCESS HANDICAP

While many recent stakes races feature quality though not often much quantity (or betting opportunity) this is not that. There are plenty of contenders, story lines and competitive nature of the overall race shape to make cases for here. The race shape should play a role in the outcome especially when looking at the Plot and dynamic with the Sun Contention paired with the higher SpeedRate.

Both #3 OEUVRE and #9 KATIE M’LADY show up on the Plot above the ParLine (part of the higher SpeedRate) where KATIE M’LADY sure to take up her familiar position on the front end while in this first start back off the layoff. OEUVRE is not a “need the lead” though has stretching out brings in natural early speed and with the draw and assertive rider does not project to be too far off the early pace here. Those two hold the class and speed figure edge over their stablemates: #1 JOURNEYIST and #6 R. KATIEBUG (M. Boyce) and C. Block with #2 MISS RIVER RAT -- one that could be a touch short of contender however today’s noted race shape and rider change to O. Mojica as positives to include underneath.

The early pace should also be kept honest with #8 GIRL OF MY DREAMS on the stretch out in distance and one that has yet to show they can win by passing. Their stablemate #7 BREEZING ALONG does not hold any speed figure edge though has some upside showing improving with age and established form around two turns. They also bring upside in this second start of the cycle coming out of the 5/11 with the TROUBLES+, a legitimate stumble out of the gate and while in that allowance race, still noted $134k purse.

The race shape is the prime concern for #4 YANKEE DOLLAR one that otherwise appears very live in this spot. She has stakes form and including a pair of listed stakes wins at Turf Paradise and in this second start off the layoff with the key stretch out in distance form what appeared on paper a likely prep sprinting for the first time in that 5/29 return – all signs pointing to a peak effort today.

Similar second off intent follows #5 QUEEN JUDITH one that turned in a B OptixGRADE in the 5/8 place finish and noted in running TROUBLE making a WIDE MOVE and all around honest effort. The change in dynamic today moves them up and has been competitive under similar Sun dynamics in the past including the BTL allowance back in April 2023 at KEE a higher par than today’s stakes race and higher purse as well. 

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:13 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 EVEN THE WIND return under similar conditions with a lower par from the 5/29 start. They broke SLOG, not uncommon for them and made up ground through TRAFFIC with the CLOSE for place together with first run winner, Hawks Creek. The early pace should be honest (even without the MTO) looking at the Plot and in part to the inclusion of their stablemate #8 NOT FALLING BACK coming off a dominant B+ MCL win and showing as much in terms of early speed in the two MSW races last year.  

That race dynamic and looking at Surface/Distance OptixPLOT moves up #7 PROFESSOR HIGGINS especially at the longer odds, a similar position/shape to EVEN THE WIND. Class is a rise for PROFESSOR HIGGINS from the 5/18 $25k N2 event, and noted they WASTED a lot of energy prerace and have been given more time between starts here. In terms of class, this is a rise and though to their credit held their own in the N1 allowance races last season, both on the turf and main track.

That surface/distance versatility also noted for #6 BETTERA one that has been consistent this year and today’s allowance a lateral move on this circuit from the conditional claiming events at FG and OP and catching a lower par here than the main track 5/25 allowance in this second start for the connections.

#1 TIME MUSE can be included with their runstyle and form second off returning from a les than ideal trip that began at the GATE (fractious) carried to the TACTIC- playing a role in the TROUBLE and competitive B- OptixGRADE and outcome all things considered. 

Santa Anita Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Separating the two P. D'Amato #9 BROSKI is preferred back at a mile where they recorded a B OptixGRADE under similar conditions back on 4/26 over  B-#4 CUBAN CONFUSION on the day. #5 MIDNIGHT STRIKE also from that common race can be upgraded overall and with each race showing improvement. 

The STRETCH out in distance is a positive change on second time starter #8 MAKUTU however has a bigger hurdle with the change in class. 

Santa Anita Race 3

Post Time 3:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 MISS MEAGHER stretch out in this second start off the layoff and subtle change in class. The mile distance was the intention going back to their local debut at DMR last September - an EX/EXCUSE trip on the day and then the layoff that followed the SLOG TROUBLE_S October race. 

Santa Anita Race 4

Post Time 4:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 READY TO DARE might prefer ONE_TURN with some distance limitations, though with the change in class, that could be enough to carry them through under these conditions. 

#5 DOUBLE CAPPUCCINO brings in current form and should hold some value with the surface switch. As far as the two dirt sprints as a juvenile, they required added ground and unable to STRETCH out at that time, playing a bigger role in the outcome than the main track surface alone. 

Santa Anita Race 7

Post Time 5:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 NEEDLEPOINT stretches back out after a legitimate EX/EXCUSE on 5/3. The two mild races at this level starting off the year held sneaky trips with upside. That started off the season with a TRAFFIC X_FLOW MOVE and strong GALLOP+ back on 2/22 followed by a TACTIC- TROUBLE trip on 3/22 paired with a rider change that followed. NEEDLEPOINT recorded a B- OptixGRADE in that 2/22 race the same B- OptixGRADE as rival #6 ETERNAL REIGN with that place finish with more favorable ground SAVED trip. 

#9 CROSSANNA still must step up in the speed figure department though to her credit returned from the layoff at this level, first on the circuit and sprint distance with a WIDE CLOSE and strong GALLOP+ to support the return to the route distance here. Each race back at Hawthorne in 2024 was BTL on debut, a B OptixGRADE with the place finish behind a Very Slow early pace and following three scratches with races taken off-the-turf was dominant with the B+ OptixGRADE MSW win in August closing out 2024.