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Sun June 15th, 2025 |
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Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Starting the analysis with the lone runner with racing
experience #5 SHEZ TWISTED one that has come up short in the two starts at a
short number. That brings along reservations at the same time holds that
experience edge and along with early speed for this shorter 4.5f distance and
first start at Hawthorne where they had been training all along. Stablemate #4
BIAGODDESS with a shorter published work tab and gaps is not a usual pattern
for this barn, worth getting a look at in the paddock as well as the board.
M. Boyce also with the pair of #1 TUM TAP and #3 KICKIN two
with nearly identical work tabs and both in capable hands with their riders
assigned. A. Centeno has been aboard four of those FTS all ITM with one winner –
Indyville last season and lands on TUM TAP where L. Colon has had success for
this barn on this circuit and with filly though often at longer with main
mount, Journeyist (one we will see in the feature later on the card) and was
aboard Rumbrandt for the tracking win in the 2023 Debutante at FP.
#7 SHOVE OFF is worth a mention of the group showing
up here from FP where they have been training. D. Martin has a smaller sample
of FTS 2yo over the years with decent records and those runners showing a
similar work tab to prepare for a debut. That includes the two FTS on this
circuit posting speed figures that might be a touch short on the win end though
not dismissed for minors.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:05 PM CST
The class relief appears key for #2 RAMBERT in
this second start off the layoff. They will also reunite with O. Hernandez, a
rider aboard with suggest over this course and distance last year and that follows
the TACTIC- trip in the return last month along with the DROP.
They meet a common rival in the turf sprints last season
with #3 FROSTED ÉCLAIR also returning with the change in class and
surface with the key rider change back to J. Felix, the rider that has that
success aboard going back to 2023 with her MSW win. While FROSTED ÉCLAIR can
show early speed, she often has gate issues and another key with J. Felix, a
rider that has been able to rate and find the right tracking timing to win.
#5 CHROME ATTACK also from those turf sprint
common races last year with number in the past that fit on par. The return on
5/10 appeared a PREP and on the day was WARM and not asked for their best
(NO_PUSH) and physically better suited to the TURF, the surface switch here. J.
Loveberry taking over will get attention in this case and could come down from
the ML.
The odds should stay long with #7 BALI BABY
and some necessary price compensation as she has been without a win since
November 2022. With that said, she holds buried form especially in the races
over this course and distance and some current form with the recent N3 claiming
events, races with a higher par than today’s event and could be taken closer to
a lateral move here. Number wise BALI BABY is not always as consistent as #8
COVENANT LADY though right there on her best day. Those two share a similar
runstyle and that must be considered with value on COVENANT LADY as a closer
and with the distance cut back -- something not necessarily planned as they
were entered at HS Indy back in a route race on 6/7 and scratched when those
races were taken off the turf.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:30 PM CST
Tough to get too creative in here with the projected
favorites logical: #7 SILKY WARRIOR took the class drop to this level
and distance on 5/25 recording a B OptixGRADE in the place finish making a WIDE
MOVE together at the wire with pacesetting winner, Lily’s Creed. #2 NO
NANNETTE NO (stablemate of Lily’s Creed) was right there behind that
pair making a late move after the SLOG and has consistent races at this level
course and distance.
Trying to mix in a price, #1 KITTEN ROCKS could be
sitting on their peak effort – third off with the stretch out in distance. Her
better races back in 2022-23 are right there with the other two though must
show she can get back to those efforts and at the least should hold price compensation.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 3:55 PM CST
The long layoff could be a hurdle for #1 BLURT as
they return here though otherwise fit this condition (N2 in 2025 making their
first start of the season) and fit in terms of runstyle with the rail draw and
looking at the Plot (Q1 Circle) could hold a pace advantage on the front end.
That runstyle sits in contrast to #2 CODE RUNNER one
that ran on too late as the massive favorite on 5/25 and the knock on that day
as a closer at a short price, those factors not to be ignored again though does
find a slightly higher SpeedRate today, to their benefit. The trip and first
run looked to and indeed set up for #5 TWO COOKIE RULE on the day and
looking at the Plot, should try to secure that similar run today, however CODE
RUNNER with the post change and timing along with rider change might not allow
for that to repeat. #6 MISTER CHARMING also with that runstyle from the
common race and holding form once again and with longer odds to at the least
include for minors.
#7 FAMILY TRADITION wheels right back after
catching the WEATHER impacted track conditions last week. While it could be
said, they did not handle the track their action on the day has been observed
at other times this season when under favorable “fast” conditions. The outside
draw and every other pattern given them as much on a look in this race and
could be there today; though still requires price compensation with their
racing antics.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:21 PM CST
#1 QUALITY STORM improved with racing last season and
similar could be started coming back in 2025 for this sophomore runner. They
made their first start of the year over this course and shorter 5f distance as
the only 3yo in the field on 4/10 showing run primarily after the wire putting
in a strong GALLOP+ and overall a useful PREP. They have moved forward with
each race and subtle trips while in at a higher level, par and purse making
those softer adjustments here.
The class change also comes into play for #6 CUCUY though in
terms of par is closer to a lateral move from their most recent races. The distance
change should allow for fitness though at the same time still must prove
themselves shorter and value concerns as they should gather attention for the
connections and with the rider change to J. Loveberry. The distance change also noted for #3 VINO
COURAGIO in this first start of the season and a lateral move when looking at
par from the TAM series of races.
The class change is a clear lateral move for #2 SHAMAN SEZ
one that should continue to hold their form. Their form was overlooked back on
5/8 (lower par than today) at 41-1 recording a B OptixGRADE and coming back two
weeks ago added front wraps, a lower recorded speed figure though still a B- effort. The same B- OptixGRADE recorded for #7
IDIOSYNCRASIES as well as #8 MINIMO one that should be overlooked here
(value) with the change in finishing positions from the 6/1 common race.
This might not be the ideal spot for the 4yo filly #9
GOLDEN NOTE however holds overall upside with distance change and class
change in this second start against winners and coming back from a TROUBLE trip
while also uncharacteristically WARM on 5/29. Looking at the Plot a case can be
made for her (a similar position and shape to IDIOSYNCRASIES) and especially if
overlooked on the board.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 4:47 PM CST
ILLINOIS PRINCESS HANDICAP
While many recent stakes races feature quality though not
often much quantity (or betting opportunity) this is not that. There are plenty
of contenders, story lines and competitive nature of the overall race shape to
make cases for here. The race shape should play a role in the outcome
especially when looking at the Plot and dynamic with the Sun Contention paired
with the higher SpeedRate.
Both #3 OEUVRE and #9 KATIE M’LADY show up on the
Plot above the ParLine (part of the higher SpeedRate) where KATIE M’LADY sure
to take up her familiar position on the front end while in this first start
back off the layoff. OEUVRE is not a “need the lead” though has stretching out
brings in natural early speed and with the draw and assertive rider does not project
to be too far off the early pace here. Those two hold the class and speed
figure edge over their stablemates: #1 JOURNEYIST and #6 R. KATIEBUG (M. Boyce)
and C. Block with #2 MISS RIVER RAT -- one that could be a touch
short of contender however today’s noted race shape and rider change to O.
Mojica as positives to include underneath.
The early pace should also be kept honest with #8 GIRL OF MY
DREAMS on the stretch out in distance and one that has yet to show they can win
by passing. Their stablemate #7 BREEZING ALONG does not hold any speed
figure edge though has some upside showing improving with age and established
form around two turns. They also bring upside in this second start of the cycle
coming out of the 5/11 with the TROUBLES+, a legitimate stumble out of the gate
and while in that allowance race, still noted $134k purse.
The race shape is the prime concern for #4 YANKEE
DOLLAR one that otherwise appears very live in this spot. She has
stakes form and including a pair of listed stakes wins at Turf Paradise and in
this second start off the layoff with the key stretch out in distance form what
appeared on paper a likely prep sprinting for the first time in that 5/29
return – all signs pointing to a peak effort today.
Similar second off intent follows #5 QUEEN JUDITH one
that turned in a B OptixGRADE in the 5/8 place finish and noted in running
TROUBLE making a WIDE MOVE and all around honest effort. The change in dynamic
today moves them up and has been competitive under similar Sun dynamics in the
past including the BTL allowance back in April 2023 at KEE a higher par than
today’s stakes race and higher purse as well.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:13 PM CST
#4 EVEN THE WIND return under similar conditions with
a lower par from the 5/29 start. They broke SLOG, not uncommon for them and
made up ground through TRAFFIC with the CLOSE for place together with first run
winner, Hawks Creek. The early pace should be honest (even without the MTO)
looking at the Plot and in part to the inclusion of their stablemate #8 NOT
FALLING BACK coming off a dominant B+ MCL win and showing as much in terms of early
speed in the two MSW races last year.
That race dynamic and looking at Surface/Distance OptixPLOT
moves up #7 PROFESSOR HIGGINS especially at the longer odds, a
similar position/shape to EVEN THE WIND. Class is a rise for PROFESSOR HIGGINS
from the 5/18 $25k N2 event, and noted they WASTED a lot of energy prerace and
have been given more time between starts here. In terms of class, this is a
rise and though to their credit held their own in the N1 allowance races last
season, both on the turf and main track.
That surface/distance versatility also noted for #6
BETTERA one that has been consistent this year and today’s allowance a
lateral move on this circuit from the conditional claiming events at FG and OP
and catching a lower par here than the main track 5/25 allowance in this second
start for the connections.
#1 TIME MUSE can be included with their
runstyle and form second off returning from a les than ideal trip that began at
the GATE (fractious) carried to the TACTIC- playing a role in the TROUBLE and
competitive B- OptixGRADE and outcome all things considered.
Santa Anita Race 1
Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Separating the two P. D'Amato #9 BROSKI is preferred back at a mile where they recorded a B OptixGRADE under similar conditions back on 4/26 over B-#4 CUBAN CONFUSION on the day. #5 MIDNIGHT STRIKE also from that common race can be upgraded overall and with each race showing improvement.
The STRETCH out in distance is a positive change on second time starter #8 MAKUTU however has a bigger hurdle with the change in class.
Santa Anita Race 3
Post Time 3:30 PM CST
#3 MISS MEAGHER stretch out in this second start off the layoff and subtle change in class. The mile distance was the intention going back to their local debut at DMR last September - an EX/EXCUSE trip on the day and then the layoff that followed the SLOG TROUBLE_S October race.
Santa Anita Race 4
Post Time 4:00 PM CST
#2 READY TO DARE might prefer ONE_TURN with some distance limitations, though with the change in class, that could be enough to carry them through under these conditions.
#5 DOUBLE CAPPUCCINO brings in current form and should hold some value with the surface switch. As far as the two dirt sprints as a juvenile, they required added ground and unable to STRETCH out at that time, playing a bigger role in the outcome than the main track surface alone.
Santa Anita Race 7
Post Time 5:30 PM CST
#5 NEEDLEPOINT stretches back out after a legitimate EX/EXCUSE on 5/3. The two mild races at this level starting off the year held sneaky trips with upside. That started off the season with a TRAFFIC X_FLOW MOVE and strong GALLOP+ back on 2/22 followed by a TACTIC- TROUBLE trip on 3/22 paired with a rider change that followed. NEEDLEPOINT recorded a B- OptixGRADE in that 2/22 race the same B- OptixGRADE as rival #6 ETERNAL REIGN with that place finish with more favorable ground SAVED trip.
#9 CROSSANNA still must step up in the speed figure department though to her credit returned from the layoff at this level, first on the circuit and sprint distance with a WIDE CLOSE and strong GALLOP+ to support the return to the route distance here. Each race back at Hawthorne in 2024 was BTL on debut, a B OptixGRADE with the place finish behind a Very Slow early pace and following three scratches with races taken off-the-turf was dominant with the B+ OptixGRADE MSW win in August closing out 2024.