Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 MY LAST ESCAPADE and #5 DOUBLE BURN hold the class edge in the field as they drop down to this MCL level for the first time and as projected to take up the role of the betting favorites. #6 LORD BLOCK is the wild card and while they have run at this level, that race last July was their debut and on 7/14 raced as the lone FTS in the field - the scenario here for #1 GAME SANTA. 

OFF TURF: #6 FIRST MASAMUNE moved up on Standard as a Q1 Square. Positional speed to keep #5 STRONGER TOGETHER honest up front and drawn positively to their outside. That scenario could allow for #3 ROTARY DIAL to track pacesetters along inside and look for first run. 

TURF: While #2 TEMPER TANTRUM fits logically they project to land the bulk of the public attention and are not too far out ahead of others in this field that should hold value as a result. #7 DAPPER DUDE ran in the 5/15 common race with TROUBLE in their show result while TEMPER TANTRUM benefit from the TACTIC+ trip. The connections of DAPPER DUDE have been patient scratching after the races were taken off the turf on 6/9 – the barn kept in #3 ROTARY DIAL with a solid place finish and numbers in line with today’s par.

#1 BOLDISH is a big of a stab with some unknowns given the change in class and surface while right back on shorter rest. With that said, they have held their numbers in the lone turf start as well as around two turns and bringing that into the race could see them competitive and at longer odds for creative compensation. 

#5 DICK BEST fits as the favorite in this race. They bring in tactical speed with the stretch out, class and speed figures on par along with a positive every other form cycle pattern. In terms of the distance change and the two route races this year, the 4/13 race off the layoff appeared a prep while coming back on 5/3 with adversity making a WIDE RUSH after a TROUBLE_S from the outside post into a Fast early pace – those two races in context are enough to give some excuse.

#4 HANDSOFFTHEGOODS projects to be much shorter than the two return races this year though could still land as one of the higher in this compact field off the recent running lines and finishing positions. With each race they have moved forward in their form cycle and speed figures while from a visuals standpoint in the paddock has presented as an individual that appears to need to race into shape. 

#4 ELI’S PROMISE brings in early speed, and effective with that runstyle in the past. They draw around some of the other pacesetters in this race to work out a trip. While the Plot is not as favorable here for #3 TAHOE RUN it must be consider that is taking into account limited sprint races many of those during the first part of their career. That includes their first two starts. Both at Hawthorn over this course and distance and with J. Loveberry in the saddle – to note intent coming back today off the layoff.

The early pace should be honest given the complexion of this field and with #5 FAST JACK and #7 INDYVILLE in Q1 on/above the ParLine. That early pace potentially includes #1 LUNDBURG with the rail draw – a horse that does not need the lead though will be “forced” to use for position if not making the lead today – something unable to do in the Work All Week with the TROUBLE_S and chasing eventual pacesetting winner, King Cab.

#2 DINOS DIXIE looking to improve overall and certainly capable of doing so off their races this season now in the second start of the cycle. Their best game is on the lead and lunging out of the gate on 5/11 forced to make a WIDE RUSH into a Fast early pace compromised on flow and running against the track profile, presents a massive upgrade here. They should hold value as #4 COMISKEY PARK projects to hold as the favorite, a horse that fits off numbers and certainly on their best day, though the quick turnaround and drop in class, creates some reservations.

#5 GRAND HIDEAWAY likely DINO’S DIXE brings upside second off and from a sneaky good return effort in the 5/11 common race. From the paddock PRERACE- visuals they appeared to need the race kicking around in the paddock and that carried to the TROUBLE_S and in running made a WIDE MOVE to hold position in a blanket for the minors as the race winner (and next out winner) SHACKLEFORD STRONG rallied from off the pace.

#8 ALIBI IKE had a look returning to the turf and with buried turf form to upgrade on 5/25 and ran to it with the B OptixGRADE and place outcome, though find a tougher group (higher par purse) when assessing on the win end and especially coming back today where they could land shorter odds than last month. 

Projected favorite #4 RUMBRANDT moved up on the class DROP returning from the layoff earlier this month and legitimate landing here with ABOVE  Speed and Class and ABOVE+ on the Plot. They finds  a similar change second off and should hold fitness making a RUSH and WIDE MOVE to hold fitness to carry into this race shape and look to track the outside three (#6 NAJAMEANSBUSINESS, #7 MISTY SUNDAY and #8 TEXAS HOTTIE) Q1 Circles looking for first run.

That trip should be key with other capable types in this field also making subtle class changes. #2 WILDWOOD QUEEN coming in from Oaklawn/HS INDY holding their form while not quite on the level to compete noting those higher par events. #3 INTO GOLDEN ROAD also finds a more subtle change though notable lower par from the recent FP starts, positive “every other” form cycle pattern and could be overlooked with the circuit switch in their Hawthorne debut. Those two find a similar Plot position to returning #1 ICE N LEMON making a belated 712-day return though with some potential upside from the juvenile/sophomore numbers could find themselves right in with this group. 

OFF TURF: #12 EUCLID AVENUE wheels right back from a game effort at this level, they have enough tactical speed to sit outside the potential other three while looking to stalk and pounce with first run.

TURF: While there should be enough early pace (Sun/50 SpeedRate) for #1 SILVER QUARTERS to run at from off the pace (Q2/4 Square) they still require the right trip with that running style and things to consider as the projected favorite.

#7 SHADY MCGEE should look for first run and bringing in current form at this level in their two starts this season and perhaps some intent off those races given a little more time (35-days) between starts and a rider change with J. Loveberry taking over. They should find a similar trip to #10 RIVER REDEMPTION one that has battled with the pattern of recent layoff lines. With that said, they make their way back to Hawthorne and similar level where they were competitive last year. A lot of that success was in part to the TACTIC+ of rider L. Colon back aboard today.

#4 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY does not hold any strong edge in today’s race shape with overall a touch lighter on class and speed. Similar could be said for #5 DEVILS RED one that does present some upside on the Plot to consider and especially if they sneak away on the board.

#6 VITALE projects to be overlooked and at the same time has back numbers and form on the turf that fits on par. Some of those stronger efforts over this course and route distance under a similar par to today’s race. Further intent could follow noting they were entered and scratched under these conditions back on 5/29 with the races taken off the turf and kept up fitness if nothing else with the start just 5-days ago. With Hi-5 wagering #9 SON OF GRACE is a legitimate stab, though could be included in those deeper underneath spots perhaps some intent with the rider change and journeyman, A Santos taking over. 

5-DOUBLE BURN could be dropping to score. He’s shown only brief speed so far but he’s never been in this easy. Moving from turf to dirt could be seen as an advantage. 4-MY LAST ESCAPADE is the main competition and could easily win this. He’s had far more starts than top choice but he has also had quite a bit more success. He’s also dropping to his lowest level ever. Would be no surprise. 3-ULTIMATE FIGHTER and 2-HUMOR'S IMAGE will likely be fighting for the early lead. Have to give Ultimate Fighter the edge there since he’s had some recent races under his belt but either are capable of hanging on to finish third. 

We’re off turf and that could dramatically change the outcome of this race. 5-STRONGER TOGETHER might have been entered for turf but his connections were probably elated when this race got moved to dirt. He might be racing at a higher level today but he crushed the last field he faced, his first race after getting claimed by this barn. If he runs like that again, he could easily earn a return trip to the winner’s circle. It was hard to imagine anyone here capable of beating 2-TEMPER TANTRUM on turf but that might not be the case on dirt. This 11-time winner, eight on the turf, scored victories in his last two starts, both here, but both on the lawn. He’s had four dirt races and hasn’t hit the board. It’s still possible that he’ll win this but he doesn’t look like the lock he appeared to be on grass. 6-FIRST MASUMUNE is worth another look if you are seeking a price shot. He looked sharp wining his last at a big price. That race was against easier in a shorter race on the main track but we know he’s been good on dirt.  

Hard to get a handle on 5-DICK BEST. When he’s good he can be very good but when he’s not...then he finishes up the track. But, he’s dropping to meet his easiest field so far this year. He looks like the one they have to beat but it’s going to depend on what runner shows up. 1-COALMINER'S KITTEN went off as the odds-on favorite in last but raced in midpack all the way around and never made up any ground. He had been red hot prior to that race however, with two wins and two seconds in his previous four races, dating back to last year. Could easily bounce back with a superb effort. 2-PAYNT BY NUMBERS could lead the second tier of runners all the way around. 

1-LUNDBERG could be tough. He was a bit outmatched in a stakes race here a month ago but he won his prior two starts; one here and his previous start at Oaklawn. With the ability to run well on or off the lead, he should fare well against any kind of pace. 5-FAST JACK likely goes right for the lead. He just finished second in his turf debut but he is probably far more effective on the main track where all nine of his wins have been scored. 4-ELI'S PROMISE hasn’t been overly competitive so far this year but has raced exclusively at Oaklawn. He’s been much more of a factor in his previous local starts. Can never ignore anything racing for this barn. 

There will probably be a lot of defections with this race moving to the main track. We’ll have to guess who stays in. 4-COMISKEY PARK was the class of this race on turf and probably even more so on dirt. He’s dropping to the lowest level of his career. He owns good tactical speed; just not sure how effective he’ll be at this short sprint distance. Didn’t like 7-XPRESSIR on turf but it could be a different story on dirt. It’s possible that he’ll grab an unchallenged lead and take it all the way. 8-ALIBI IKE seems outgunned but he has had some success at short sprint distances. 

This field could be decimated by scratches. 12-EUCLID AVENUE will surely benefit. He was a main-track only entrant and so drew the 12 hole but with probably half the field likely to scratch, his task just got easier. Now sure that he’ll make the early lead but he should be positioned perfectly if the likely front runner runs out of gas. 2-ST LOUIS LOUIE likely leaves with the lead. He’s stretching out and he has tended to tire late, even in his sprints, but he might be able to take a breather on the front end and have something left for the finish. 3-LAVENDER EARL could join the early pace. Like St Louis Louie, he does tend to tire late but this will be one of the easiest fields he ever had to face.