« 06/18/2025 | 06/20/2025 » |
Thu June 19th, 2025 |
Download as PDF |
Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:43 PM CST
#4 MY LAST ESCAPADE and #5 DOUBLE BURN hold the class edge in the field as they drop down to this MCL level for the first time and as projected to take up the role of the betting favorites. #6 LORD BLOCK is the wild card and while they have run at this level, that race last July was their debut and on 7/14 raced as the lone FTS in the field - the scenario here for #1 GAME SANTA.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:12 PM CST
OFF TURF: #6 FIRST MASAMUNE moved up on Standard as a Q1 Square. Positional speed to keep #5 STRONGER TOGETHER honest up front and drawn positively to their outside. That scenario could allow for #3 ROTARY DIAL to track pacesetters along inside and look for first run.
TURF: While #2 TEMPER TANTRUM fits logically they
project to land the bulk of the public attention and are not too far out ahead
of others in this field that should hold value as a result. #7 DAPPER DUDE
ran in the 5/15 common race with TROUBLE in their show result while TEMPER
TANTRUM benefit from the TACTIC+ trip. The connections of DAPPER DUDE have been
patient scratching after the races were taken off the turf on 6/9 – the barn kept
in #3 ROTARY DIAL with a solid place finish and numbers in line with today’s
par.
#1 BOLDISH is a big of a stab with some unknowns given the change in class and surface while right back on shorter rest. With that said, they have held their numbers in the lone turf start as well as around two turns and bringing that into the race could see them competitive and at longer odds for creative compensation.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:43 PM CST
#5 DICK BEST fits as the favorite in this race. They
bring in tactical speed with the stretch out, class and speed figures on par
along with a positive every other form cycle pattern. In terms of the distance
change and the two route races this year, the 4/13 race off the layoff appeared
a prep while coming back on 5/3 with adversity making a WIDE RUSH after a
TROUBLE_S from the outside post into a Fast early pace – those two races in
context are enough to give some excuse.
#4 HANDSOFFTHEGOODS projects to be much
shorter than the two return races this year though could still land as one of
the higher in this compact field off the recent running lines and finishing
positions. With each race they have moved forward in their form cycle and speed
figures while from a visuals standpoint in the paddock has presented as an individual
that appears to need to race into shape.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:11 PM CST
#4 ELI’S PROMISE brings in early speed, and effective
with that runstyle in the past. They draw around some of the other pacesetters
in this race to work out a trip. While the Plot is not as favorable here for #3
TAHOE RUN it must be consider that is taking into account limited sprint
races many of those during the first part of their career. That includes their
first two starts. Both at Hawthorn over this course and distance and with J.
Loveberry in the saddle – to note intent coming back today off the layoff.
The early pace should be honest given the complexion of this
field and with #5 FAST JACK and #7 INDYVILLE in Q1 on/above the ParLine. That
early pace potentially includes #1 LUNDBURG with the rail draw – a horse
that does not need the lead though will be “forced” to use for position if not
making the lead today – something unable to do in the Work All Week with the
TROUBLE_S and chasing eventual pacesetting winner, King Cab.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:41 PM CST
#2 DINOS DIXIE looking to improve overall and
certainly capable of doing so off their races this season now in the second
start of the cycle. Their best game is on the lead and lunging out of the gate
on 5/11 forced to make a WIDE RUSH into a Fast early pace compromised on flow
and running against the track profile, presents a massive upgrade here. They
should hold value as #4 COMISKEY PARK projects to hold as the favorite,
a horse that fits off numbers and certainly on their best day, though the quick
turnaround and drop in class, creates some reservations.
#5 GRAND HIDEAWAY likely DINO’S DIXE brings
upside second off and from a sneaky good return effort in the 5/11 common race.
From the paddock PRERACE- visuals they appeared to need the race kicking around
in the paddock and that carried to the TROUBLE_S and in running made a WIDE MOVE
to hold position in a blanket for the minors as the race winner (and next out
winner) SHACKLEFORD STRONG rallied from off the pace.
#8 ALIBI IKE had a look returning to the turf and with
buried turf form to upgrade on 5/25 and ran to it with the B OptixGRADE and place
outcome, though find a tougher group (higher par purse) when assessing on the
win end and especially coming back today where they could land shorter odds
than last month.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:10 PM CST
Projected favorite #4 RUMBRANDT moved up on the class
DROP returning from the layoff earlier this month and legitimate landing here with
ABOVE Speed and Class and ABOVE+ on the
Plot. They finds a similar change second
off and should hold fitness making a RUSH and WIDE MOVE to hold fitness to carry
into this race shape and look to track the outside three (#6 NAJAMEANSBUSINESS,
#7 MISTY SUNDAY and #8 TEXAS HOTTIE) Q1 Circles looking for first run.
That trip should be key with other capable types in this
field also making subtle class changes. #2 WILDWOOD QUEEN coming
in from Oaklawn/HS INDY holding their form while not quite on the level to
compete noting those higher par events. #3 INTO GOLDEN ROAD also finds
a more subtle change though notable lower par from the recent FP starts,
positive “every other” form cycle pattern and could be overlooked with the circuit
switch in their Hawthorne debut. Those two find a similar Plot position to
returning #1 ICE N LEMON making a belated 712-day return though with some potential
upside from the juvenile/sophomore numbers could find themselves right in with
this group.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:39 PM CST
OFF TURF: #12 EUCLID AVENUE wheels right back from a game effort at this level, they have enough tactical speed to sit outside the potential other three while looking to stalk and pounce with first run.
TURF: While there should be enough early pace (Sun/50 SpeedRate)
for #1 SILVER QUARTERS to run at from off the pace (Q2/4 Square) they still
require the right trip with that running style and things to consider as the
projected favorite.
#7 SHADY MCGEE should look for first run and bringing in
current form at this level in their two starts this season and perhaps some
intent off those races given a little more time (35-days) between starts and a
rider change with J. Loveberry taking over. They should find a similar trip to
#10 RIVER REDEMPTION one that has battled with the pattern of recent layoff
lines. With that said, they make their way back to Hawthorne and similar level
where they were competitive last year. A lot of that success was in part to the
TACTIC+ of rider L. Colon back aboard today.
#4 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY does not hold any strong edge in today’s
race shape with overall a touch lighter on class and speed. Similar could be
said for #5 DEVILS RED one that does present some upside on the Plot to
consider and especially if they sneak away on the board.
#6 VITALE projects to be overlooked and at the same
time has back numbers and form on the turf that fits on par. Some of those
stronger efforts over this course and route distance under a similar par to
today’s race. Further intent could follow noting they were entered and
scratched under these conditions back on 5/29 with the races taken off the turf
and kept up fitness if nothing else with the start just 5-days ago. With Hi-5
wagering #9 SON OF GRACE is a legitimate stab, though could be included
in those deeper underneath spots perhaps some intent with the rider change and
journeyman, A Santos taking over.
Thu June 19th, 2025 |
Download as PDF |
Jim's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:43 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:12 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:43 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:11 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:41 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:10 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Thu June 19th, 2025 |
Download as PDF |
Ron's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:43 PM CST
5-DOUBLE BURN could be dropping to score. He’s shown only brief speed so far but he’s never been in this easy. Moving from turf to dirt could be seen as an advantage. 4-MY LAST ESCAPADE is the main competition and could easily win this. He’s had far more starts than top choice but he has also had quite a bit more success. He’s also dropping to his lowest level ever. Would be no surprise. 3-ULTIMATE FIGHTER and 2-HUMOR'S IMAGE will likely be fighting for the early lead. Have to give Ultimate Fighter the edge there since he’s had some recent races under his belt but either are capable of hanging on to finish third.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:12 PM CST
We’re off turf and that could dramatically change the outcome of this race. 5-STRONGER TOGETHER might have been entered for turf but his connections were probably elated when this race got moved to dirt. He might be racing at a higher level today but he crushed the last field he faced, his first race after getting claimed by this barn. If he runs like that again, he could easily earn a return trip to the winner’s circle. It was hard to imagine anyone here capable of beating 2-TEMPER TANTRUM on turf but that might not be the case on dirt. This 11-time winner, eight on the turf, scored victories in his last two starts, both here, but both on the lawn. He’s had four dirt races and hasn’t hit the board. It’s still possible that he’ll win this but he doesn’t look like the lock he appeared to be on grass. 6-FIRST MASUMUNE is worth another look if you are seeking a price shot. He looked sharp wining his last at a big price. That race was against easier in a shorter race on the main track but we know he’s been good on dirt.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:43 PM CST
Hard to get a handle on 5-DICK BEST. When he’s good he can be very good but when he’s not...then he finishes up the track. But, he’s dropping to meet his easiest field so far this year. He looks like the one they have to beat but it’s going to depend on what runner shows up. 1-COALMINER'S KITTEN went off as the odds-on favorite in last but raced in midpack all the way around and never made up any ground. He had been red hot prior to that race however, with two wins and two seconds in his previous four races, dating back to last year. Could easily bounce back with a superb effort. 2-PAYNT BY NUMBERS could lead the second tier of runners all the way around.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:11 PM CST
1-LUNDBERG could be tough. He was a bit outmatched in a stakes race here a month ago but he won his prior two starts; one here and his previous start at Oaklawn. With the ability to run well on or off the lead, he should fare well against any kind of pace. 5-FAST JACK likely goes right for the lead. He just finished second in his turf debut but he is probably far more effective on the main track where all nine of his wins have been scored. 4-ELI'S PROMISE hasn’t been overly competitive so far this year but has raced exclusively at Oaklawn. He’s been much more of a factor in his previous local starts. Can never ignore anything racing for this barn.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:41 PM CST
There will probably be a lot of defections with this race moving to the main track. We’ll have to guess who stays in. 4-COMISKEY PARK was the class of this race on turf and probably even more so on dirt. He’s dropping to the lowest level of his career. He owns good tactical speed; just not sure how effective he’ll be at this short sprint distance. Didn’t like 7-XPRESSIR on turf but it could be a different story on dirt. It’s possible that he’ll grab an unchallenged lead and take it all the way. 8-ALIBI IKE seems outgunned but he has had some success at short sprint distances.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:10 PM CST
Hard to find fault with 4-RUMBRANDT. It’s been a long time since she won but she has been competitive in all her races for the last year. Her connections realized that she wasn’t going to win at higher levels so they are dropping her to her lowest level ever. Wonder how many claim slips will be dropped on her. 3-INTO GOLDEN ROAD has been racing for a higher claiming tag downstate and racing competitively. The drop in class and her good tactical speed could have her poised to make a run at them late. 8-TEXAS HOTTIE wheels back quickly. She obviously didn’t like racing on turf or going two turns in last but she’s dropping to meet easier, returning to the main track, and turning back in distance.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:39 PM CST
This field could be decimated by scratches. 12-EUCLID AVENUE will surely benefit. He was a main-track only entrant and so drew the 12 hole but with probably half the field likely to scratch, his task just got easier. Now sure that he’ll make the early lead but he should be positioned perfectly if the likely front runner runs out of gas. 2-ST LOUIS LOUIE likely leaves with the lead. He’s stretching out and he has tended to tire late, even in his sprints, but he might be able to take a breather on the front end and have something left for the finish. 3-LAVENDER EARL could join the early pace. Like St Louis Louie, he does tend to tire late but this will be one of the easiest fields he ever had to face.