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Sat June 21st, 2025 |
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Emily's Analysis
Woodbine Race 2
Post Time 12:43 PM CST
Woodbine Race 3
Post Time 1:18 PM CST
#1 SERENADING KITTEN finds the change in class and based on the B OptixGRADE on 10/6 and EX on 10/26 at this level last season fits on par and at the right level for their abilities. #6 WHAT A COMPLEX wheels right back for a second start, slightly softer race par than the 5/25 event while stretching out from a TACTIC- TRAFFIC trip.
Woodbine Race 4
Post Time 1:50 PM CST
#5 MAGIC TOKEN has been looking to return to the turf and looks to find it here along with class relief. Not only were they scheduled to run on the turf on 5/29, that race was also not ideal in terms of class place above conditions in the N3 - returning wisely to N2 here - also noting #10 KID GIZMO also has been racing above condition in their two most recent starts. In terms of grass, MAGIC TOKEN started out on the turf with improving numbers in the two grass races in 2023. in 2024, they returned to the grass at a higher level in the two starts last season those efforts on par with today's group. In addition to preferred grass surface, their better form and figures have been recorded at the one-turn extended sprint distance they are placed at here.
Woodbine Race 5
Post Time 2:22 PM CST
Highly competitive race with a case to be made for many in this field. There is a solid mix of established fillies and some FTS from capable barns as well as lightly raced types. That includes #9 BERTHA returning for a belated second start given a follow from the 12/7 late season debut. They raced first out around two turns in the snow (WEATHER) and broke SLOG/TROUBLE_S showing run making a WIDE MOVE and off the visuals projects to IMPROVE. The form from that event has held up with two next out winners and including R3 runner, Serenading Kitten to follow.
Woodbine Race 6
Post Time 2:54 PM CST
#3 AWESOME SPIRIT GAL fits this condition and figures class relief where they should be in the right spot. Value is the main knock for a horse that has held longer odds in the recent starts and the place outcome on top of the pp's will stand out to the public, though perhaps could drift with the pair of M. Casse runners that should get attention. #6 FORTYFIVESEVENTY fits at this level and key change in class. They bring upside second off and from the Belle Mahone (G3) trip that was compromised at the break - restless in GATE hopped straight up out (TROUBLES_) and made a RUSH along inside/SAVED into a Fast early pace, flow upgrade.
Woodbine Race 7
Post Time 3:26 PM CST
#5 IT AIN'T TWO showed class overseas and while finishing in a BLANKET with TRAFFIC in the Limestone Stakes back in April at KEE. They return from a TROUBLE trip playing a role in the Mamzelle (G3) outcome last month at CD.
#1 PERSONIFY showed class (B+) breaking their maiden on debut and coming back to win the 12/7 allowance through TRAFFIC and change in runstyle.
#2 AMERICAN WOMEN should be over looked and while they must improve in the speed figure department, they bring upside off the recent races and some confidence with the connections pushing forward with the return to stakes company while holding the N1 eligibility. They closed out 2024 in August at ELP with a WIDE trip and NO_PUSH that projected to IMPROVE. With that race last summer there has been some setbacks coming back around and returning from the layoff in April had legitimate TROUBLES+ at the break enough to give an EX on the day.
Woodbine Race 8
Post Time 3:59 PM CST
#8 THUNDERING is worth a value play, something that should hold with the recent outcomes and given the full field and "big name" trainer/connections. THUNDERING showed ability on debut making a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW in their show finish and off that race broke their maiden in their second start, the Display Stakes. Another step up in class was given closing out 2024 in the Grey (G3) with an improvement figure and WIDE MOVE in the 4th place outcome. They have shown run this season noting the TROUBLE_S CLOSE and GALLOP+ in the Woodstock Stakes 2025 debut and followed that up with another SLOG TROUBLE_S making a MOVE in the King Corrie. From the visuals should benefit from the STRETCH and TURF while also noting a rider change back to RM Hernandez, the debut rider.
Woodbine Race 9
Post Time 4:32 PM CST
#6 BELLA CLASSICA earned a follow from the debut projecting to IMPROVE off the SLOG TROUBLE_S and CLSOE. They met 3yo and up F&M on debut and make the change to 3yo company here. #7 R CANADIAN APPLE also returns from that 5/25 common race and making a WIDE MOVE to finish in a BLANKET for four together at the wire. At the time of this analysis, the 5/25 race just 27-days ago has been quick to produce two (out of three returnees) next out winners.