Handicapper Tips & Picks

Could see the public gravitating towards #4 ALTO ROAD, a capable type though is dropping in class of a win and has the recent layoff lines as a change in timing to consider along with a shorter number. Their H. Rodrigues stablemate #5 BREAKING NEWS also finds the class drop though reasonable following the win on 5/1 and racing protected in starter allowance company three weeks ago, the higher par on 6/1.

Looking at the Plot, #7 HURTS SO BAD has a similar Plot position/shape to ALTO ROAD and projects higher of the two. They move to an outer post following the 5/29 start under similar conditions noting the trip, TROUBLE_S and in TRAFFIC SHUFFLE back and put in a strong close for place.

#3 SAND MOUTAIN was a front runner up until last year with a pattern of SLOG showed they could pass horses. That tactic could be effective with today’s race shape and even a move forward could be projected second off the layoff and making the return to Hawthorne keying off the higher conditioned races last season, competitive in that three race series.

#2 CHRISTMAS PRESENT has plenty of races that fit to compete with this group including a B- OptixGRADE at the level on 4/17, their first start back off the layoff. They were WARM, heavily washed out on 5/29, a big change for them physically and might have been a sign that was not their day. 

When looking at the Plot, #8 LALY as a Q1 Square presents that edge, though could be flattered by their second start when catching the BIAS and LONE lead on the day. They bring in the early speed that can be effective though likely have to contest that pace with #2 TWO TIMER one that brings in recency, drawn inside of the two and upgraded off their form this season coming back from the B- OptixGRADE - together in the place photo with closing #5 CALLAS. TWO TIMER raced as the lone sophomore in the field that day and noted higher par despite coming back in three weeks under similar conditions.

The higher par from the races for #6 CHIQUITA REINA moves them up in this spot. They can even track closer to the pace if and looked to show as much on 5/4 making a rush into an honest pace tracked by the open length 3-5 chalk winner, Miss Mikos (showing up later on the card, R5) and the race starting to slow late. 

#7 CHINATOWN GIRL earned a follow from their debut earlier this month. In running they had TROUBLE_S and from there on hold (TACTIC-) showing a MOVE while not asked for their best on the day and present upside from the experience and the changes shifting to this circuit.

#4 TAKE THE HEAT projected to move up on TURF and did just that on 6/12. Heading into that MSW race there was less concern about the surface switch than the class level and showed a lot more run (especially GALLOP+ out past the wire) than the running line and finishing position suggests.

#1 POLSKA SUE has shown improvement on this circuit and the move to the turf. From the sprint races along with the rail here and stretch out in distance, they are likely to be assertive and look to show speed and presence felt on the front end. 

The Fire Contention paired with the higher 50 SpeedRate should assist runners from off the pace. #3 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR falls clearly in that position as a Q4 Square and progress a move forward wheeling back in two weeks from the 6/8 start impacted by WEATHER and trip chasing inside/SAVED and in hand/NO_PUSH not asked for run on the day.

#7 VANISKY was compromised at the break and with the trip still recording an honest effort with the B- OptixGRADE despite the 4^th place outcome.  The Plot position also upgraded #4 PERFUMER coming in from FP on the stretch out for the first time since last season. The picked up the win last April with that race shape similar - a Fire Contention and honest 38 SpeedRate.

As far as the first flight the bookends, #1 ICE AXE and #8 JET FLIGHT should run their race. They could have to contest the pace though bring in form and the edge when looking at the Plot over some of their “Circle” Q1/3 rivals. 

#5 CLOEY ATTACK appears well intended with the racing this season moving up with each start at FP and now in the third start off the layoff and returning to the turf, arguably their preferred surface. She held her own in the FG sprints though was not at the right level in the earlier season allowance races finding the drop and the win on 2/28 that conditional claiming event holding a similar par to today’s race with a slight rise in purse.

#7 EMPRICAL VIEW is worth a look and getting creative with. As far as class and speed she has those boxes checked both on the grass and from the KY allowance conditions starting off her career and before the recent layoff. Her effort last June (prior to the most recent long layoff) was impacted by TROUBLE and projected to IMPROVE off those in running visuals. While she has not shown that this year, she might have needed the start and as a PREP while racing X_FLOW on 5/1, a race won by her stablemate Vegas Condo and noted DELAY along with the rail draw wheeling back three weeks later on 5/22. 

#7 MANAGING MISHIEF return from a legitimate TROUBLE+ trip over the turf on 5/29 that trip playing a bigger role in the outcome than the surface switch. Despite the adversity she showed a MOVE and interest to record a B- OptixGRADE in the 5^th place outcome. As she wheels back in here they bring further upside from the 2024 season and even the allowance in April at Oaklawn taking KICKBACK that day – something to avoid (and perhaps the reason to try back on grass) here with the outside post and rider change.

#4 BEEHIVE finds a softer par returning from the Third Chance stakes last month and overall level of consistency that is tough to dismiss. He has tactical speed, while not a need the lead type and in familiar hands with A. Centeno back aboard. They will also find a familiar foe in stablemate #2 DEVIL one that has found herself not far off BEEHIVE.

#1 FIRST HILL also taking the same path as MANAGING MISCHIEF back to the main track and does hold form under similar conditions surface and distance from last year. Based on placement and race shape there are factors to consider that she has been up against it (class, dynamic) and unable to show her best playing a role in the outcome at Oaklawn and here last month. 

#1 BOURBON STREET BOY finds a softer change in par and purse presenting as a slightly new face on that front. In addition, they can be given a slight flow upgrade as part of the early pace in the recent CD starts. Further intent comes into play as the connection have been looking for a race on this circuit as well as the added ground and turf noting they were a late scratch from the 6/8 $20k MCL event when the weather hit and moved the races to the main track.

The change in class is noted for #3 FRONTIER MARSHALL back at the MCL level while also in form pairing up B- OptixGRADE this season and should appreciate the STRETCH In distance as well.

Both M. Perez runners #1 BLACK RUSSIAN and #11 MONEY AGENT can be upgraded here. MONEY AGENT had been racing into shape and found their top form on 5/11, not a one off and should carry here based on prior season races. BLACK RUSSIAN should appreciate the STRETCH out from the 5/11 common race where they showed their run past the wide with a strong GALLOP+ and should hold fitness from the races this season and WIDE trip on the day.

Also from the 6/8 common race: #8 CASH APP MIKE still must show where they fit on class though the STRETCH In distance while on the turf is favorable for this individual. #12 DYNO WAR does not hold a class edge though brings in buried form and TURF visuals along with intent for the added ground staying in the 6/8 off-the-turf event to keep up conditioning.