Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 RED MOOD provides a value alternative to the ML favorites. They started out their career with an EX on debut and in 2024 recorded figures on the main track last summer on/above today's par. For this second start back in 2025, they find the lowest level of their career; move up with early speed (shift to Q1) with upside coming back second off the layoff from a TRAFFIC SHUFFLE trip 20-days ago. 

#3 DILWAALA finds a significant change in class with a much lower race par for the first time in their career. They follow that up with upside and a rider change coming back in this spot. Returning from the 158-day layoff on 5/22 the TACTIC- trip getting a SHUFFLE to chase WIDE impacted their outcome and in a race that was won on the front end and no change in running order. That event has been productive with each that has run back improving in their next start including one winner coming back to win against $25k N2 company. 

Tough to knock any of the runners in this field as they are evenly matched and while the two older runners #3 HIGHLAND ROCKY and #6 CASTLE HARBOUR could catch the right group, they are overall tougher to trust. The lack of recency is noted for #5 DIVA'S GHOST (194 layoff) though does find a much softer par and going back to last season, their 11/29 B- effort under similar conditions was the most competitive of the four 2024 juvenile starts. 

the trio of second time starters return from the 6/13 common race: #2 JO JAGR was give an EX - EXCUSE with the VSLOW and despite the running line and finishing position put in a strong late CLOSE. Their stablemate #4 FEELS LIKE A KYLIA had TROUBLE_S and after raced RANK while on COVER. #7 J M R TURINO showed run also with adversity at the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and less than ideal handling with the TACTIC- held up behind horses racing in TRAFFIC making a MOVE and solid GALLOP+

The change in class moves up both #2 OK SPEEDY and #4 GOLDEN TEST in contrast to the others that have run at this lower N2 claiming level. To be fair, #5 BACK RIVER did recorded a B OptixGRADE under these conditions two weeks ago staying on as the WIDE BOS though had the race FLOW in their favor and lacked NO_LEAD. The B- effort from #6 GIL'S FOLLY could be overlooked given the 6th place outcome though noting the GRADE was competitive despite a TACTIC- trip.

#3 TRICKY MAGICIAN wheels back from a sneaky trip and CLOSE projecting to IMPROVE off the effort and outcome. In addition, they bring in form over this course, distance and condition from last season. They picked up the win on 8/16 and did not return to the turf (and 5f distance) until 10/13 recording a B- OptixGRADE in that 4th place result. Looking at the OptixPLOT #2 MAMBA ON THREE appears to hold a pace advantage on the front end. In addition they bring in current form staying on as the BOS back on 5/16 and return with L. Salles, the rider from that race and from the TROUBLE_S and RUSH two weeks ago. 

The 5f distance of this race adds a tricky element as a specialty. #3 SEA SCOUT had been effective a this $7.5k claiming level and upside on that front second off. They have had success at the shorter distance though still requires some price compensation, perhaps even higher than the 4-1 ML suggests. #1 WET N WILD makes sense as an individual and does hold the 5f win from earlier this season. With that said, they had an outside draw on that day (and returning on 5/30) and finds a change to the inside, something they have have struggled with (in limited starts, to be fair) in the past. 

Looking at the Plot, an extreme race shape could develop with the Fire Contention paired with the 50 SpeedRate. That can be seen visuals with 5 of the 6 above the ParLine including half of the field to the left of the y-axis on Standard (current form) and more than half in Q1/3 on Surface/Distance. The exception to #3 HEY HEY PAULA as a Q4 Large Square. They find a shorter distance though should have the pace to chase and subtle class relief especially coming back in this second start of the season.