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Sun June 29th, 2025 |
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Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:43 PM CST
#4 FRONTIER MARKET fits in this field and as the horse to
beat. They have shown speed figure improvement with each start going back to
the debut late last season and improved with the class change shifting to
statebred company on June 5th. Showing early speed that day and throughout
in a DUEL with the eventual winner Gabe’s Choice.
The others from that common race land here and noting #2
GOOD YEGG made a positive prerace appearance compared to the other starts this
season as a positive sign. With the course tough to make up ground the TACTIC-
to take back after showing some early speed was not as ideal though made a WIDE
MOVE into show. Whereas the two F. Kirby runners also have shown more early
speed with #3 GUNNY SACK more forward than #5 DRIPPING SPRINGS and has been
supported in the wagering as well.
#1 THREE AFLEET is the “new face” a second start this season
and first start at the statebred level. Going back to the debut late in the season,
10/10 they had some excuse with the TROUBLES+ as part of the chain reaction at
the break and they lunged out of the gate (RUSH) in the 5/11 return though in
terms of class finds a softer par and DROP as a result for a second start this
season.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:17 PM CST
The noted Snowflake Contention and lower speed rate could present
an advantage for a runner forwardly placed. With that said, many in this field
have show early speed capable of taking up that role, without being confirmed front
runners (perhaps except in the case of #2 PHILLIPSBURG) making it a riders race
on that front. #1 RUSSIAN TO WIN being one of those as they make their seasonal
return to Hawthorne. They showed legitimate early speed WIDE as the BOS for the
1/19 win at OP. They projected to REGRESS and might have been the reason for the
timing between starts after and the race results as well.
#6 SHACKLEFORD STRONG already with the pair on wins this
season under similar conditions does find a slightly higher par today and
notable as they project to be the favorite, though has run at the higher par at
other times competitively in their career. They are tough to knock overall a game
race horse and draw well for a type that has tactical speed and runstyle
versatility.
#5 LUCKY SHOT comes into this race in form, class and speed
figures that fit on par. Looking at the Plot, they should track and look to make
their run from off the pace. Timing wise the 10-day turnaround might not have
been ideal and subtle trip returning on 5/22 racing WIDE on the day tracking Slow
early and late pace still recorded a B- OptixGRADE in the process.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:50 PM CST
The two second time starters from the 6/1 common race both
deserving of a look from their respective debut efforts: #3 WEDNESDAY ADDAMS brings
upside from the debut. The race likely a PREP from the prerace visuals up to the
GATE reluctant to load and raced GREEN. She had TROUBLE_S made a RUSH WIDE and interest
to finish in a blanket for show/deeper minors. #7 CHELA also part of that
underneath blanket finish recording the B- OptixGRADE while also racing GREEN
and showing running making a RUSH and CLOSE. There is a change in age here as
CHELA races as the lone 4yo on 6/1 and today’s WEDNESDAY ADDAMS will race as
the lone 3yo against older.
As far as that group many come in with established form and
after who they are though some subtle surface and class changes to note. #8
TIZMEONEMORETIME projected to move up on the TURF going back to the visuals
from their debut last August. They were looking for the turf in the second
start stayed in with a WIDE trip just 11-days later before wheeling back
finding the grass in a route race on 8/25 another WIDE (and NO_PUSH) trip and
timing wise appeared too much too quick and the layoffs that followed that
quick three race series. In the case of #2 COLLIE WRAYS KITTY one that
projected to improve on the TURF from the first couple of starts and did just
that though still must improve and noted pattern of SLOG especially with the
sprint distance and layoff return.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:25 PM CST
This is a contentious group of seven as a case can be made for many in this field. #3 FOXY ZORRA will trade recency for a subtle class edge
exiting their series of higher MCL events with a higher par and purse along
with subtle trips in those races. Sticking to the class theme where the change
in class finds relief for many, that is not the case for the inside two #1 SHARP
ATTACK and #2 WILD DREAMS creating some hurdles on that front compared to the others
though closer to a lateral change in par coming back for their new connections.
The class and recency edge side with the others: The class drop has been the intent for #5 MARY MOONGLOW entered
in a $25k MCL event back on 5/6 before running in the 5/22 race and again
entered and scratched from a $20k MCL event at CD on 6/15 to run here instead.
A case could be made this perhaps is the time and place for
#4 BALLYBAY BEAUTY to step up. There was some interest rom the public on debut
and in running had to show a little more with the SLOG and WIDE trip something that
created some value hesitation coming back for the second start on the turf earlier
this month. While a new top effort is still required to compete here, the
fitness should be there cutting back and from the Very Fast early and late race
shape while NO_PUSH after losing ground and behind the open length winner,
Buttons And Lace.
The class is a lateral move for the pair of H. Robertson
runners from the 6/5 common race: #7 SAVVY SMILA had the benefit of race
experience and recording the B OptixGRADE making up some ground against the
course profile on the lone winner, Racing The Light. #6 AERONYX as compromised
with the SLOG racing up against a course tough to make up ground but did just
that making a WIDE MOVE and credible show finish; and worth noting they went
off shorter odds of the two.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:56 PM CST
#4 LUNAR UNIT likely needed the local start on 5/29 as a PREP
and stayed in even as the races were taken off the turf. Class wise this is a closer
to a lateral move from where they had been competitive on the grass last year
and even in the 4/22 TUP start, recording a B- OptixGRADE in the 6th
place BLANKET finish outcome. A top effort is required though has those races
in them and on their best day those figures sit in line with #5 PASTA SALAD
RHONDA one that figures to be favored here and logical overall.
If PASTA SALAD RHONDA is not favored that role should lane
with #2 SPICY ITALIAN, regardless the two should take the bulk of wagering support
and on Surface/Distance not much between the two. Visually expected better from
SPICY ITALIAN on 5/13 presenting some reservations at a shorter number while
respecting they are ABOVE on Speed and Plot and ABOVE+ along with PASTA SALAD
RHONDA on Class.
#7 OH MACARENA holds numbers that fit on par and coming back
for a second start of the season, the intended surface (turf) from the 5/29
return, a messy run race on the main track. While a top could be projected with
those changes returning here, trip still must be consider as she tends to want
to race forwardly place and that same consideration for #6 ANNIE’S HOPE and #8
LILY’S CREED along with others making up part of the Sun Contention.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:25 PM CST
Looking at the Plot, #7 BLURT appears to hold a pace advantage
on the front end as a clear Q1 smaller Circle and the *almost* lone runner
above the ParLine. While they had a similar Plot position (Large Circle) on
6/15 they also had an extended layoff into that race and bring in fitness
second off. Their runstyle is in contrast to #2 CODE RUNNER a logical type
though has been compromised by race shapes in the past with their off the pace
run and had the Fast early (and Fast late) to close into for the win two weeks
ago.
#6 TRY TRY AGAIN sits above the ParLine on Standard (current
form) to suggest they can compete in this group. This year, they have yet to
return to a top number as they did last season though had had some subtle trips
along with the necessary fitness as they stretch out for the first time in 2025.
The front wraps were added coming back off the layoff in April and removed to
suggest intent in the most recent start (6/8) though compromised with the WEATHER
and rain that hit at post time chasing WIDE and requires a more assertive ride.
#5 DIAMOND DAVE returns from the layoff here and looking for
a similar win off the bench as recorded last season with the 7/6 win. While
that could suggest intent for this 10yo they also have been able to win with
today’s race shape (Fire, Low SpeedRate) but must come out race ready and for a
top.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:53 PM CST
Keeping with the theme of the Plot, the race shape holds a
Sun Contention and lower SpeedRate (even change with the MTO out) that should
assist runners with tactical speed. #4 TIME MUSE (moved up on the class
drop, Q1 Square) should be kept honest on the front end with Q1 #7 WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK
- the outside post could force #9
NATHANIELS HOPE and #10 NEW YEAR SURPRISE projecting to send from the outside to
put themselves into the race and try to avoid excess ground loss. The Surface/Distance
Plot position could also see #5 HARD TO FATHOM part of that first flight while
#1 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY should not be too far off that set with the bigger hurdle
on class as they were entered in a $12.5k claiming event scratched with the surface
switch.
Trip should fall ideal for #2 SHARP STICK (Q1 Surface/Distance
Square) to stalk inside and look for first run. They comes into this race with
current form going back to an EX – EXCUSE on 5/1 and while looking for the turf
on 5/22 along with the class drop, found themselves compromised with the race
shape and SLOG making MOVE X_FLOW.
A contested pace benefits #3 PROFESSOR HIGGINS in addition
to the change in class returning to claiming company where they were
competitive on 5/18 (B-) and WASTED energy prerace. They return with a rider
change and off a subtle trip two weeks ago showing more run than perhaps the
running line and finishing positions suggests.
As noted above in the race shape with #10 NEW YEAR SURPRISE the
other M. Perez runner #6 ICE SHARD gives up recency though otherwise fits at
this level and returning to the TURF, likely their preferred surface. Looking
at the Plot, they hold a strong late kick (Q4 Square) something tougher “on
paper” to see.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 6:23 PM CST
While #4 TEMPER TANTRUM makes a lot of sense in this race, looking
at the Plot, they might not hold as much of an edge in this field as will
suggest on the board. That is not a “knock” on their chances, rather the
potential for a shorter (underlay) number. The Surface/Distance position for #3
WICKED SURPRISE is an upgrade and could hold a greater pace advantage than what
appears on paper.
#6 STORM’S REFLECTION does not hold any edge when looking at
the Plot, though in part to the recent trips from the main track races and the
two NO_PUSH trips closing out the TAM season. Going back in their form some of
their better efforts have been recorded over this Hawthorne turf course and
given the recent outcomes this could project positive intent, remaining
protected and wheeling right back second of this current cycle.
V. Esquivel takes over on STORM’S REFLECTION moving B.
Troxtell to #8 Mr. UNIVERSE one that has plenty of back numbers and class to
present as a major player though must turn the current form and figures around with
the quickness. The return to the turf with conditioning and the recent front wrap
removal could allow for this the time and place.
Sun June 29th, 2025 |
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Jim's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:43 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:17 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:50 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:25 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:56 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:25 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:53 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 6:23 PM CST
Sun June 29th, 2025 |
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Ron's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:43 PM CST
I’ve always felt that, in Illinois at least, one of the biggest class moves was a runner going from open maiden specials to state-bred maiden specials. 1-THREE AFLEET is making that move. He didn’t beat many in either of his races but this is a whole new ballgame. Makes his second start since October, a strong handicapping factor for runners from his barn. They win with about 30% of their runners making their second starts off long layoffs. Can pad that total today. 4-FRONTIER MARSHALL just missed when meeting Illinois breds for the first time. He gamely fought for the lead from the start and only gave it up late. Wouldn’t be surprised if he led all the way in this one. 2-GOOD YEGG has more starts than the rest of the field combined but he seems to be in better form than ever. Would like his chances better on turf but he’s almost always competitive when meeting Illinois breds.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:17 PM CST
This is one of those races where anyone can win. I’m leaning toward 6-SHACKLEFORD STRONG because he’s so sharp right not, he won his last two, and he might be the one most capable of closing on what promises to be a blistering early pace. Mitchell Murrill has ridden 4-WE MISS ARLINGTON three times this year and that team won all three races. This gelding hadn’t shown much in any other race this year. But Mitchell in back aboard today. Maybe. 2-PHILIPSBURG failed to fire as the favorite in last, a race won by top choice, but he had won three of his previous four races and finished second in the other. Has every right to bounce back with a strong effort.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:50 PM CST
On paper, this looks like a contest between 3-WEDNESDAY ADAMS and 7-CHELA. Neither showed a lot in their lone start but both are eligible to improve greatly. Both race for red-hot barns. Both are going from open company into Illinois breds. Both get what some would consider jockey upgrades. 4-WAHIDA OF MARDEN might be the best of the rest. She did finish second the last time she raced against Illinois breds on the weeds.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:25 PM CST
5-MARY MOONGLOW ran well in all her races but her connections still chose to drop her into maiden claimers for the first time. She isn’t likely to have an easy time of it, this race looks extremely competitive, but if she runs the same race she has three times so far, she could emerge victorious. Heard 4-BALLYBAY BEAUTY was a good one before she even raced but she hasn’t shown much, so far at least. She’s dropping in class and returning to the main track. There is still ample time for her to improve. 3-FOXY ZORRA finished fifth in four of her five races this year but she’s always been in against better. She’s been working very well in preparation for her 2025 debut and her barn sports a high win percentage with runners coming back from similar layoffs. 7-SAVVY SMILA just missed when dropped to this level for last. 6-AERONYX was favored in her debut at this level but she had a ton of trouble and still managed to finish third after making up seven lengths in the stretch. She is hard to ignore.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:56 PM CST
5-PASTA SALAD RHONDA gets the nod. Not only has she been in good form on the main track but she has been far more successful than any of her rivals on the lawn. 2-SPICY ITALIAN is the main competition. She just finished third as the favorite at this level. That was her first start in over two months so she could be stronger with race under her belt. 6-ANNIE'S HOPE is certainly worth another look. It's been nearly a year since she ran on turf but she had some decent efforts on the southern California circuit last year. She was favored in last on dirt but ran into some trouble. However, expect her to be a solid price in this contest. Could surprise.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:25 PM CST
7-BLURT ran far better than I expected in last, his first race of the year and his first for this barn. He was pressed on the lead all the way around but still managed to hang on for second. There doesn’t appear to be much other speed to press him in this spot and he’ll be fitter in his second start of the year. Might not get caught. 2-CODE RUNNER won last beating top choice as well as many of these rivals. But he had a perfect pace set-up that day and that might not happen in this race. He was claimed from last three races and is now back in the barn where he started this meet. Might be able to win for them. 4-TWO COOKIE RULE has been in competitive form for a while. He finished third behind the top pair in last but with the extra distance of this race, he might be able to roll by all of them late.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:53 PM CST
Not in love with any in here but have to go with 2-SHARP STICK. He hasn’t looked too sharp so far in his three races this year but all were on dirt. His turf races last year were much better. Hopefully the move to the right surface with do the trick. 4-TIME MUSE drops into claimers. He appears to be among the best of the speed. He’s been racing competitively in allowance company but he just might be the only true speed in this field. Not sure which 1-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY will show up. He’s making his first start of 2025. He finished 2024 in terrible form but if he can regain the form he displayed in 2023 and the beginning of 2024, he’s going to be hard to beat. 3-PROFESSOR HIGGINS barely ran a step versus allowance company in last but he went off as the favorite in his previous race at this level and barely missed.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 6:23 PM CST
4-TEMPER TANTRUM seems likely to make it three in a row. He isn’t a big closer but he will be tracking what should be a contested early pace and will finish with a flourish. 1-SHAKE UP has had only two turf races and he ran well in both. This will be his longest turf race yet but fully expect him to be on or near the lead throughout. 3-WICKED SUPRISE has been in terrible form so far this year but he’s been racing on dirt and he’s always been far better on the lawn. He’s another who usually likes the front end. Could awaken with the switch in surfaces.