Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 FRONTIER MARKET fits in this field and as the horse to beat. They have shown speed figure improvement with each start going back to the debut late last season and improved with the class change shifting to statebred company on June 5^th. Showing early speed that day and throughout in a DUEL with the eventual winner Gabe’s Choice.

The others from that common race land here and noting #2 GOOD YEGG made a positive prerace appearance compared to the other starts this season as a positive sign. With the course tough to make up ground the TACTIC- to take back after showing some early speed was not as ideal though made a WIDE MOVE into show. Whereas the two F. Kirby runners also have shown more early speed with #3 GUNNY SACK more forward than #5 DRIPPING SPRINGS and has been supported in the wagering as well.

#1 THREE AFLEET is the “new face” a second start this season and first start at the statebred level. Going back to the debut late in the season, 10/10 they had some excuse with the TROUBLES+ as part of the chain reaction at the break and they lunged out of the gate (RUSH) in the 5/11 return though in terms of class finds a softer par and DROP as a result for a second start this season. 

The noted Snowflake Contention and lower speed rate could present an advantage for a runner forwardly placed. With that said, many in this field have show early speed capable of taking up that role, without being confirmed front runners (perhaps except in the case of #2 PHILLIPSBURG) making it a riders race on that front. #1 RUSSIAN TO WIN being one of those as they make their seasonal return to Hawthorne. They showed legitimate early speed WIDE as the BOS for the 1/19 win at OP. They projected to REGRESS and might have been the reason for the timing between starts after and the race results as well.

#6 SHACKLEFORD STRONG already with the pair on wins this season under similar conditions does find a slightly higher par today and notable as they project to be the favorite, though has run at the higher par at other times competitively in their career. They are tough to knock overall a game race horse and draw well for a type that has tactical speed and runstyle versatility.

#5 LUCKY SHOT comes into this race in form, class and speed figures that fit on par. Looking at the Plot, they should track and look to make their run from off the pace. Timing wise the 10-day turnaround might not have been ideal and subtle trip returning on 5/22 racing WIDE on the day tracking Slow early and late pace still recorded a B- OptixGRADE in the process. 

The two second time starters from the 6/1 common race both deserving of a look from their respective debut efforts: #3 WEDNESDAY ADDAMS brings upside from the debut. The race likely a PREP from the prerace visuals up to the GATE reluctant to load and raced GREEN. She had TROUBLE_S made a RUSH WIDE and interest to finish in a blanket for show/deeper minors. #7 CHELA also part of that underneath blanket finish recording the B- OptixGRADE while also racing GREEN and showing running making a RUSH and CLOSE. There is a change in age here as CHELA races as the lone 4yo on 6/1 and today’s WEDNESDAY ADDAMS will race as the lone 3yo against older.

As far as that group many come in with established form and after who they are though some subtle surface and class changes to note. #8 TIZMEONEMORETIME projected to move up on the TURF going back to the visuals from their debut last August. They were looking for the turf in the second start stayed in with a WIDE trip just 11-days later before wheeling back finding the grass in a route race on 8/25 another WIDE (and NO_PUSH) trip and timing wise appeared too much too quick and the layoffs that followed that quick three race series. In the case of #2 COLLIE WRAYS KITTY one that projected to improve on the TURF from the first couple of starts and did just that though still must improve and noted pattern of SLOG especially with the sprint distance and layoff return. 

This is a contentious group of seven as a case can be made for many in this field. #3 FOXY ZORRA will trade recency for a subtle class edge exiting their series of higher MCL events with a higher par and purse along with subtle trips in those races. Sticking to the class theme where the change in class finds relief for many, that is not the case for the inside two #1 SHARP ATTACK and #2 WILD DREAMS creating some hurdles on that front compared to the others though closer to a lateral change in par coming back for their new connections.

The class and recency edge side with the others: The class  drop has been the intent for #5 MARY MOONGLOW entered in a $25k MCL event back on 5/6 before running in the 5/22 race and again entered and scratched from a $20k MCL event at CD on 6/15 to run here instead.

A case could be made this perhaps is the time and place for #4 BALLYBAY BEAUTY to step up. There was some interest rom the public on debut and in running had to show a little more with the SLOG and WIDE trip something that created some value hesitation coming back for the second start on the turf earlier this month. While a new top effort is still required to compete here, the fitness should be there cutting back and from the Very Fast early and late race shape while NO_PUSH after losing ground and behind the open length winner, Buttons And Lace.

The class is a lateral move for the pair of H. Robertson runners from the 6/5 common race: #7 SAVVY SMILA had the benefit of race experience and recording the B OptixGRADE making up some ground against the course profile on the lone winner, Racing The Light. #6 AERONYX as compromised with the SLOG racing up against a course tough to make up ground but did just that making a WIDE MOVE and credible show finish; and worth noting they went off shorter odds of the two.  

#4 LUNAR UNIT likely needed the local start on 5/29 as a PREP and stayed in even as the races were taken off the turf. Class wise this is a closer to a lateral move from where they had been competitive on the grass last year and even in the 4/22 TUP start, recording a B- OptixGRADE in the 6^th place BLANKET finish outcome. A top effort is required though has those races in them and on their best day those figures sit in line with #5 PASTA SALAD RHONDA one that figures to be favored here and logical overall.

If PASTA SALAD RHONDA is not favored that role should lane with #2 SPICY ITALIAN, regardless the two should take the bulk of wagering support and on Surface/Distance not much between the two. Visually expected better from SPICY ITALIAN on 5/13 presenting some reservations at a shorter number while respecting they are ABOVE on Speed and Plot and ABOVE+ along with PASTA SALAD RHONDA on Class.

#7 OH MACARENA holds numbers that fit on par and coming back for a second start of the season, the intended surface (turf) from the 5/29 return, a messy run race on the main track. While a top could be projected with those changes returning here, trip still must be consider as she tends to want to race forwardly place and that same consideration for #6 ANNIE’S HOPE and #8 LILY’S CREED along with others making up part of the Sun Contention. 

Looking at the Plot, #7 BLURT appears to hold a pace advantage on the front end as a clear Q1 smaller Circle and the *almost* lone runner above the ParLine. While they had a similar Plot position (Large Circle) on 6/15 they also had an extended layoff into that race and bring in fitness second off. Their runstyle is in contrast to #2 CODE RUNNER a logical type though has been compromised by race shapes in the past with their off the pace run and had the Fast early (and Fast late) to close into for the win two weeks ago.

#6 TRY TRY AGAIN sits above the ParLine on Standard (current form) to suggest they can compete in this group. This year, they have yet to return to a top number as they did last season though had had some subtle trips along with the necessary fitness as they stretch out for the first time in 2025. The front wraps were added coming back off the layoff in April and removed to suggest intent in the most recent start (6/8) though compromised with the WEATHER and rain that hit at post time chasing WIDE and requires a more assertive ride.

#5 DIAMOND DAVE returns from the layoff here and looking for a similar win off the bench as recorded last season with the 7/6 win. While that could suggest intent for this 10yo they also have been able to win with today’s race shape (Fire, Low SpeedRate) but must come out race ready and for a top. 

Keeping with the theme of the Plot, the race shape holds a Sun Contention and lower SpeedRate (even change with the MTO out) that should assist runners with tactical speed. #4 TIME MUSE (moved up on the class drop, Q1 Square) should be kept honest on the front end with Q1 #7 WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK  - the outside post could force #9 NATHANIELS HOPE and #10 NEW YEAR SURPRISE projecting to send from the outside to put themselves into the race and try to avoid excess ground loss. The Surface/Distance Plot position could also see #5 HARD TO FATHOM part of that first flight while #1 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY should not be too far off that set with the bigger hurdle on class as they were entered in a $12.5k claiming event scratched with the surface switch.

Trip should fall ideal for #2 SHARP STICK (Q1 Surface/Distance Square) to stalk inside and look for first run. They comes into this race with current form going back to an EX – EXCUSE on 5/1 and while looking for the turf on 5/22 along with the class drop, found themselves compromised with the race shape and SLOG making MOVE X_FLOW.  

A contested pace benefits #3 PROFESSOR HIGGINS in addition to the change in class returning to claiming company where they were competitive on 5/18 (B-) and WASTED energy prerace. They return with a rider change and off a subtle trip two weeks ago showing more run than perhaps the running line and finishing positions suggests.

As noted above in the race shape with #10 NEW YEAR SURPRISE the other M. Perez runner #6 ICE SHARD gives up recency though otherwise fits at this level and returning to the TURF, likely their preferred surface. Looking at the Plot, they hold a strong late kick (Q4 Square) something tougher “on paper” to see. 

While #4 TEMPER TANTRUM makes a lot of sense in this race, looking at the Plot, they might not hold as much of an edge in this field as will suggest on the board. That is not a “knock” on their chances, rather the potential for a shorter (underlay) number. The Surface/Distance position for #3 WICKED SURPRISE is an upgrade and could hold a greater pace advantage than what appears on paper.

#6 STORM’S REFLECTION does not hold any edge when looking at the Plot, though in part to the recent trips from the main track races and the two NO_PUSH trips closing out the TAM season. Going back in their form some of their better efforts have been recorded over this Hawthorne turf course and given the recent outcomes this could project positive intent, remaining protected and wheeling right back second of this current cycle.

V. Esquivel takes over on STORM’S REFLECTION moving B. Troxtell to #8 Mr. UNIVERSE one that has plenty of back numbers and class to present as a major player though must turn the current form and figures around with the quickness. The return to the turf with conditioning and the recent front wrap removal could allow for this the time and place.