Handicapper Tips & Picks

I’ve always felt that, in Illinois at least, one of the biggest class moves was a runner going from open maiden specials to state-bred maiden specials. 1-THREE AFLEET is making that move. He didn’t beat many in either of his races but this is a whole new ballgame. Makes his second start since October, a strong handicapping factor for runners from his barn. They win with about 30% of their runners making their second starts off long layoffs. Can pad that total today. 4-FRONTIER MARSHALL just missed when meeting Illinois breds for the first time. He gamely fought for the lead from the start and only gave it up late. Wouldn’t be surprised if he led all the way in this one. 2-GOOD YEGG has more starts than the rest of the field combined but he seems to be in better form than ever. Would like his chances better on turf but he’s almost always competitive when meeting Illinois breds.  

This is one of those races where anyone can win. I’m leaning toward 6-SHACKLEFORD STRONG because he’s so sharp right not, he won his last two, and he might be the one most capable of closing on what promises to be a blistering early pace. Mitchell Murrill has ridden 4-WE MISS ARLINGTON three times this year and that team won all three races. This gelding hadn’t shown much in any other race this year. But Mitchell in back aboard today. Maybe. 2-PHILIPSBURG failed to fire as the favorite in last, a race won by top choice, but he had won three of his previous four races and finished second in the other. Has every right to bounce back with a strong effort.   

On paper, this looks like a contest between 3-WEDNESDAY ADAMS and 7-CHELA. Neither showed a lot in their lone start but both are eligible to improve greatly. Both race for red-hot barns. Both are going from open company into Illinois breds. Both get what some would consider jockey upgrades. 4-WAHIDA OF MARDEN might be the best of the rest. She did finish second the last time she raced against Illinois breds on the weeds.  

5-MARY MOONGLOW ran well in all her races but her connections still chose to drop her into maiden claimers for the first time. She isn’t likely to have an easy time of it, this race looks extremely competitive, but if she runs the same race she has three times so far, she could emerge victorious. Heard 4-BALLYBAY BEAUTY was a good one before she even raced but she hasn’t shown much, so far at least. She’s dropping in class and returning to the main track. There is still ample time for her to improve. 3-FOXY ZORRA finished fifth in four of her five races this year but she’s always been in against better. She’s been working very well in preparation for her 2025 debut and her barn sports a high win percentage with runners coming back from similar layoffs. 7-SAVVY SMILA just missed when dropped to this level for last. 6-AERONYX was favored in her debut at this level but she had a ton of trouble and still managed to finish third after making up seven lengths in the stretch. She is hard to ignore.  

5-PASTA SALAD RHONDA gets the nod. Not only has she been in good form on the main track but she has been far more successful than any of her rivals on the lawn. 2-SPICY ITALIAN is the main competition. She just finished third as the favorite at this level. That was her first start in over two months so she could be stronger with race under her belt. 6-ANNIE'S HOPE is certainly worth another look. It's been nearly a year since she ran on turf but she had some decent efforts on the southern California circuit last year. She was favored in last on dirt but ran into some trouble. However, expect her to be a solid price in this contest. Could surprise. 

7-BLURT ran far better than I expected in last, his first race of the year and his first for this barn. He was pressed on the lead all the way around but still managed to hang on for second. There doesn’t appear to be much other speed to press him in this spot and he’ll be fitter in his second start of the year. Might not get caught. 2-CODE RUNNER won last beating top choice as well as many of these rivals. But he had a perfect pace set-up that day and that might not happen in this race. He was claimed from last three races and is now back in the barn where he started this meet. Might be able to win for them.  4-TWO COOKIE RULE has been in competitive form for a while. He finished third behind the top pair in last but with the extra distance of this race, he might be able to roll by all of them late. 

Not in love with any in here but have to go with 2-SHARP STICK. He hasn’t looked too sharp so far in his three races this year but all were on dirt. His turf races last year were much better. Hopefully the move to the right surface with do the trick. 4-TIME MUSE drops into claimers. He appears to be among the best of the speed. He’s been racing competitively in allowance company but he just might be the only true speed in this field. Not sure which 1-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY will show up. He’s making his first start of 2025. He finished 2024 in terrible form but if he can regain the form he displayed in 2023 and the beginning of 2024, he’s going to be hard to beat. 3-PROFESSOR HIGGINS barely ran a step versus allowance company in last but he went off as the favorite in his previous race at this level and barely missed. 

4-TEMPER TANTRUM seems likely to make it three in a row. He isn’t a big closer but he will be tracking what should be a contested early pace and will finish with a flourish. 1-SHAKE UP has had only two turf races and he ran well in both. This will be his longest turf race yet but fully expect him to be on or near the lead throughout. 3-WICKED SUPRISE has been in terrible form so far this year but he’s been racing on dirt and he’s always been far better on the lawn. He’s another who usually likes the front end. Could awaken with the switch in surfaces.