Handicapper Tips & Picks

In terms of experience, #1 TUM TAP (while no match for quality stablemate Kickin) returns holding the edge (B-) over common rival #3 BOOM BOOM BELL (C+) on 6/15.

The two barns with a pair of FTS and #6 BIAGODDESS scratching out of the 6/15 race to debut here instead. That could be the right move with the additional works, something of a reservation prior with the noted gaps and not usual for this barn. Stablemate #2 PRISSY comes in with a longer work tab and a quicker published half mile time on 6/29 of the two.

As far as the M. Perez pair with the identical times, drills and spacing. The pair picked up out of the April OBS sale working similar times though (imo) #5 SHE’S TOPS was a bit more mature compared to #4 ALROSA, perhaps in par to being a January foal. 

#2 MARZ EATOATS projected to move up with the SHORTER distance and flow upgrade (VF early/late pace on 4/17) and did just that staying on as the BOS/Best of the Speed with the place finish last month. With a similar front end tactic, she could find company in that role with #5 ESCOVEDO one that projected to move up on TURF going back to her 2024 late season debut. With the surface switch at the FG in the second start, did just that making POP out of the gate with a VF early/late pace playing a role in the NO_FINISH 4^th result. The connections were looking for the right spot and the grass this season and reasonable to make the class drop wheeling back in two weeks following the WEATHER and TROUBLE_S/RUSH impacted trip at HS Indy.

The L. Rivelli barn will also second out #6 MARY MOONGLOW another looking for the change in class noting she has been entered three other times at the MCL level landing here and remaining on this circuit with the shift to Ulloa as Loveberry sticks with ESCOVEDO.

E. Rodriguez shows up with a pair and new face in #3 D’ ARGONAUT exiting a STRONG debut last October and coming in for the new connections holds a steady work tab. O. Hernandez has been a live rider for this barn in turf sprints on this circuit with a limited sample, 10 (4-1-1) often showing early speed and $1.24 positive ROI. Another newly acquired stablemate #7 BALLYBAY BEAUTY moved up as projected with the shift to MCL company 11-days ago, though looks to find a higher par here. Similar could be said when looking at par for #4 NIGHT BLUE while respecting the return to MCL company and overall consistent (B-) competitive efforts including the race under similar conditions over this course back on 5/8. 

#1 GAME SANTA took a lot of wagering support first out and to their credit validated that showing run following a compromised SLOG/TROUBLE_S making a SAVED CLOSE and GALLOP+ in the show result behind open length (and next out) winner, Double Burn. While today’s MCL event is technically a rise in class, in terms of race par finds lower here and could be seen as closer to a lateral move.

The change in class and par sits more obvious with #2 RODAVLAS coming back for this third start. In each of the two races to date they have been consistently SLOG while number wise the debut figure sits on the higher end of par and should hold fitness coming back from the turf route last month.

With that pair showing the pattern of SLOG, the contrast with #4 BEST DRESSED MAN from their races to date showing early speed could be the edge though their pattern comes late in NO_FINISH.

The highest recorded figures in this field sit with both #3 MY LAST ESCAPADE and #6 RAGNOW though with that said, their higher figures have been recorded at the route/two turn distance and lack an edge in numbers when isolating the sprint efforts. 

Looking at the Plot with the Fire/38 SpeedRate and visually showing the majority of the field bunched up together around Q1 and the ParLine. Of that group #5 RACARINO and #7 WINGING WAYS hold the edge as Squares though could have to deal with each other and the others in order to hold for the win; and the 5.5f distance could assist.

At the same time, the race shape could set up for #1 REMEMBER THE MAINE, a legitimate longshot (most recent win 7/2021); and #2 CHRISTMAS PRESENT one that is less of a longshot especially going back to their form from last season though must turn it around and find those races in this spot. 

#6 BETWITHBOTHHANDS appears live in this spot with the STRETCH out in distance for the second start of the season. That carries to race shape as a clear Q1 runner above the ParLine and strong Square Surface/Distance Plot position that is tough to ignore, and tough to see “on paper” with the three inside runners all appear to hold early speed to contest the pace. That race shape could shift more on race day with or without the MTO/AE runners.

Front runner #4 WICKED SURPRISE was able to sneak clear and LONE with the 6/29 win, unlikely to find that similar scenario where and that dynamic playing against #7 TEMPER TANTRUM making a WIDE CLOSE.

#5 SHADY MCGEE brings in form from the two pace races and should hold value with the 4^th place result on 5/15. That race was a quick turnaround in timing from the place finish on 5/8 though on both occasions posted a B- OptixGRADE with the lack of ROOM playing a role in the recent outcome.

#8 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY also projects to move up second off and added ground wheeling right back in what appeared a PREP just over a week ago. 

With some subtractions following scratches there is a strong addition with #13 SILVER QUARTERS drawing in. They fit this race and race shape while giving up some recency fresh from the two month break. 

With both #2 BLURT and #5 FLYING SAMURAI in this field and looking to keep each other honest, the trip should set up for #3 JET FLIGHT to save ground and look for first run. That inside trip and consistent form/figures could be key as looking at the Plot, they share a similar runstyle and projected tracking trip to #6 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE and #7 TWO COOKIE RULE drawn on their outside.

#4 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR had a look two weeks ago and while more was expected on the day, price compensation should hold to make the “longshot” case once again. Prior to the 6/26 event, they recorded a B OptixGRADE, a winning type effort returning from the layoff on 4/13. That nigh effort likely required recovery playing a role wheeling back in 11 days on 4/24 and rebounded on 5/11 making a CLOSE following the TROUBLE_S/TACTIC-  and was a NO_PUSH impacting the overall outcome/figure on 6/8. A rider change and quick turnaround could signal a further positive on intent. 

With some of the noted contentious paces earlier on the card, a fair race track is still required for those closer/Q4 types. That is noted here and especially with the Fire Contention paired with the 50 SpeedRate. #1 LUNDBURG could be unlikely in that scenario and with the rail draw something that has played against them and impacted the recent outcomes.

The dynamic as noted assist the off-the-pace types and Squares #5 MONDOGETSBUCKETS, stepping up looking for a third straight win; and Large Q4 #8 CORTESE looking to get back on track returning to Hawthorne and given more time between starts. #6 TAHOE RUN does not hold any edge of that Q4 group as a Circle, though that impart to the recent races and NO_PUSH/PREP in the 6/19 return suggesting they did not show their best on the day. 

#2 FROSTED ÉCLAIR was overlooked on 6/15 and back under similar conditions, similar rivals could find a similar outcome though unlikely similar odds.

Looking at the group from the 6/15 common race, #1 CHROME ATTACK also appeared intent shifting back to the turf and WARM on the day showed run making a MOVE while on COVER and still presents ABOVE on Class to support at the ML. #4 LONG TALL WOMAN finishing place/B- was restless in the GATE broke SLOG/TROUBLE_S and slight check (TROUBLE-) making the SAVED MOVE though did not appear to have been cost the win all things considered.

Looking at Standard (current form) #8 REBA ATTACK overlaps LONG TALL WOMAN the two nearly identical Plot position and Square shape to make a value case for as she projects to go off longer odds of the two. 

1-TUM TAP has the benefit of a race under her belt. She has some speed and will have to go from the rail draw. The barn is on fire of late. 2-PRISSY seems to be outworking her stablemate a bit. The barn trains for speed and likes to win early. 6-BIAGODDESS gets the benefit of the outside draw. Last in, first out could play to her advantage.

Turf experience benefits the top two as 2-MARZ EATOATS ran well while sprinting on the grass in her last. She could clear and never look back. 4-NIGHT BLUE returns from a race in Minnesota as she rallied in the lane last out. The added 16th should help. 6-MARY MOONGLOW tries the turf in here. If she handles it, she could be tough.

The class drop may be what 5-DRIPPING SPRINGS needs to grab a win. He has some early speed and could be a good fit for Tavares. 6-RAGNOW has had many chances to break through. Maybe the turn back in distance is a plus. 3-MY LAST ESCAPADE is much like Ragnow. He tries hard and just comes up slightly short in the end.

Seems like there's some pace in here which should help 5-RACARINO as he could stalk and pounce in the lane. He likes this track and fits at the distance. 6-STINGY could be worth a look at a price. He ran a decent race at this distance two back and will benefit from the pace ahead of him. 7-WINGING WAYS has speed and will try to beat the others to the top. If he can clear he may be tough to catch.

A very tough race as almost any can win in here. Hoping there's enough pace for 5-SHADY MCGEE to close into. He has had past turf success and Centeno takes the call. 4-WICKED SUPRISE is a different horse on turf. He should be on or near the lead and will dig in when challenged. 3-BAKENEKO is often overlooked but he can step up while at a price. He should be stalking early and running on late.

Seems to be a bit more pace in this race than what we have seen at this level in the past. That could help the chances of 3-JET FLIGHT as he has been knocking on the door in recent starts. He likes this track and has been a fit with Colon in the saddle. 8-LAND MARK DEAL also will need some pace to chase. He didn't like the slop in his last but will benefit from a fast track return. 7-TWO COOKIE RULE has been consistent in recent races. He was a good winner two back and has found the board in more than half of his nearly 40 Hawthorne starts.

I like the return back to the turf for 4-LONG TALL WOMAN as she comes off a near miss in her last. She fits well at the distance and may rate a bit closer early. 2-FROSTED ECLAIR could also show some speed as she defeated Long Tall Woman in her last. She's also proven on turf and should take her share of action. 6-MORE THAN A DIVA may be the one who makes the lead in here. If she can clear she could potentially steal this race.

I usually tend to give the advantage to a runner that has race experience over runners making their career debuts. Today’s first race is no exception. I liked 1-TUM TAP in her career debut and she ran well enough but still got trounced by her stablemate. Still, it was a good learning experience. Her barn sports a whopping 57%-win average with maidens making their second career starts, though the sample is small. In any case, she looks like the one to beat. 6-BIOGODDESS, one of the two Rivelli-trained runners in the race gets the barn’s most used rider for her debut performance. That barn wins with 40% of their first-time starters, from a huge sample, and 37% of 2-year-olds. I think the other Rivelli-trained runner, the Carolyn Wilson homebred, will eventually be better on turf but you only need to look at the stats for first timers from that barn to know she can’t be ignored. 3-BOOM BOOM BELL, the other in here that has started, finished about five lengths behind top but she is another that could easily move up off that effort.  

13-SILVER QUARTERS could be tough if he draws into the race. Late runner hasn’t raced since May and that May start for his first of the year, but he’s been training well. There should be more than enough pace to set up for his stretch run. 7-TEMPER TANTRUM disappointed in last. He showed little as the big favorite after winning his previous two starts. Would expect him to bounce back with a much stronger effort. 8-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY needed his last race. He finished eighth, never making an impact. But he’s dropping to his lowest level since early in his career. Can easily awaken. 4-WICKED SUPRISE easily won last, a race containing many of these same rivals. He led every step of the way. There does, however, seem to be more speed in this race and he might not be able to relax on the lead. 

3-JET FLIGHT has been knocking at the door. He’s not a big closer but the pace of this race should be solid and he could possess enough late energy to pass them all. 1-BREAKOUT STAR has been racing over his head since getting claimed by this barn. But he’s finally dropping to the right level. Like top choice, he’s not likely to make a big late move but he might be able to wear them all down at this level. 2-BLURT tends to tire late anyway but he is probably meeting a bit easier here than he did in last and this race is 40 yards shorter which could help his chances. 

Terrific race. Going to give the classy 3-W W HOTSHOT the nod, but with a caveat. He’s coming off a dull effort downstate where he faded as the favorite. But this multiple stakes winner has been super here, winning seven of his 13 local starts. He's likely to wind up in a speed duel but might be able to outclass his speedy rivals. The caveat? He wore front wraps in his most recent start and he hadn’t raced with them in his previous 32 races. Be careful if they are present today. 1-LUNDBERG is one of many in here with very good speed but he’s not a one-dimensional runner. He’s quite capable of tracking the early pace and then finishing with good energy. The probable blistering pace of this race could set up for a closer. He might fit that description today. Not sure 8-CORTESE will be up to the challenge but he’s easily the best closer in this speed-filled field. Watch for him to come flying down the stretch. 

2-FROSTED ECLAIR can repeat. She just beat most of this field, drawing away in the stretch. It’s possible the pace will set up the same way and that could yield the same results. 4-LONG TALL WOMAN has had two turf races and finished second in both. Like top pick, she’ll be coming on late. She could the first to cross the wire if she makes the first move. It's possible that 7-GEORGIA ON E’SMIND could be poised to upset. She was sent right to the lead in last and she tired late but she doesn’t necessarily need to be on the front end. She didn’t finish too far behind top pick in last and if she relaxes a bit early she could be more of a factor late.