Handicapper Tips & Picks

I usually tend to give the advantage to a runner that has race experience over runners making their career debuts. Today’s first race is no exception. I liked 1-TUM TAP in her career debut and she ran well enough but still got trounced by her stablemate. Still, it was a good learning experience. Her barn sports a whopping 57%-win average with maidens making their second career starts, though the sample is small. In any case, she looks like the one to beat. 6-BIOGODDESS, one of the two Rivelli-trained runners in the race gets the barn’s most used rider for her debut performance. That barn wins with 40% of their first-time starters, from a huge sample, and 37% of 2-year-olds. I think the other Rivelli-trained runner, the Carolyn Wilson homebred, will eventually be better on turf but you only need to look at the stats for first timers from that barn to know she can’t be ignored. 3-BOOM BOOM BELL, the other in here that has started, finished about five lengths behind top but she is another that could easily move up off that effort.  

13-SILVER QUARTERS could be tough if he draws into the race. Late runner hasn’t raced since May and that May start for his first of the year, but he’s been training well. There should be more than enough pace to set up for his stretch run. 7-TEMPER TANTRUM disappointed in last. He showed little as the big favorite after winning his previous two starts. Would expect him to bounce back with a much stronger effort. 8-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY needed his last race. He finished eighth, never making an impact. But he’s dropping to his lowest level since early in his career. Can easily awaken. 4-WICKED SUPRISE easily won last, a race containing many of these same rivals. He led every step of the way. There does, however, seem to be more speed in this race and he might not be able to relax on the lead. 

3-JET FLIGHT has been knocking at the door. He’s not a big closer but the pace of this race should be solid and he could possess enough late energy to pass them all. 1-BREAKOUT STAR has been racing over his head since getting claimed by this barn. But he’s finally dropping to the right level. Like top choice, he’s not likely to make a big late move but he might be able to wear them all down at this level. 2-BLURT tends to tire late anyway but he is probably meeting a bit easier here than he did in last and this race is 40 yards shorter which could help his chances. 

Terrific race. Going to give the classy 3-W W HOTSHOT the nod, but with a caveat. He’s coming off a dull effort downstate where he faded as the favorite. But this multiple stakes winner has been super here, winning seven of his 13 local starts. He's likely to wind up in a speed duel but might be able to outclass his speedy rivals. The caveat? He wore front wraps in his most recent start and he hadn’t raced with them in his previous 32 races. Be careful if they are present today. 1-LUNDBERG is one of many in here with very good speed but he’s not a one-dimensional runner. He’s quite capable of tracking the early pace and then finishing with good energy. The probable blistering pace of this race could set up for a closer. He might fit that description today. Not sure 8-CORTESE will be up to the challenge but he’s easily the best closer in this speed-filled field. Watch for him to come flying down the stretch. 

2-FROSTED ECLAIR can repeat. She just beat most of this field, drawing away in the stretch. It’s possible the pace will set up the same way and that could yield the same results. 4-LONG TALL WOMAN has had two turf races and finished second in both. Like top pick, she’ll be coming on late. She could the first to cross the wire if she makes the first move. It's possible that 7-GEORGIA ON E’SMIND could be poised to upset. She was sent right to the lead in last and she tired late but she doesn’t necessarily need to be on the front end. She didn’t finish too far behind top pick in last and if she relaxes a bit early she could be more of a factor late.