Handicapper Tips & Picks

In terms of experience, #1 TUM TAP (while no match for quality stablemate Kickin) returns holding the edge (B-) over common rival #3 BOOM BOOM BELL (C+) on 6/15.

The two barns with a pair of FTS and #6 BIAGODDESS scratching out of the 6/15 race to debut here instead. That could be the right move with the additional works, something of a reservation prior with the noted gaps and not usual for this barn. Stablemate #2 PRISSY comes in with a longer work tab and a quicker published half mile time on 6/29 of the two.

As far as the M. Perez pair with the identical times, drills and spacing. The pair picked up out of the April OBS sale working similar times though (imo) #5 SHE’S TOPS was a bit more mature compared to #4 ALROSA, perhaps in par to being a January foal. 

#2 MARZ EATOATS projected to move up with the SHORTER distance and flow upgrade (VF early/late pace on 4/17) and did just that staying on as the BOS/Best of the Speed with the place finish last month. With a similar front end tactic, she could find company in that role with #5 ESCOVEDO one that projected to move up on TURF going back to her 2024 late season debut. With the surface switch at the FG in the second start, did just that making POP out of the gate with a VF early/late pace playing a role in the NO_FINISH 4^th result. The connections were looking for the right spot and the grass this season and reasonable to make the class drop wheeling back in two weeks following the WEATHER and TROUBLE_S/RUSH impacted trip at HS Indy.

The L. Rivelli barn will also second out #6 MARY MOONGLOW another looking for the change in class noting she has been entered three other times at the MCL level landing here and remaining on this circuit with the shift to Ulloa as Loveberry sticks with ESCOVEDO.

E. Rodriguez shows up with a pair and new face in #3 D’ ARGONAUT exiting a STRONG debut last October and coming in for the new connections holds a steady work tab. O. Hernandez has been a live rider for this barn in turf sprints on this circuit with a limited sample, 10 (4-1-1) often showing early speed and $1.24 positive ROI. Another newly acquired stablemate #7 BALLYBAY BEAUTY moved up as projected with the shift to MCL company 11-days ago, though looks to find a higher par here. Similar could be said when looking at par for #4 NIGHT BLUE while respecting the return to MCL company and overall consistent (B-) competitive efforts including the race under similar conditions over this course back on 5/8. 

#1 GAME SANTA took a lot of wagering support first out and to their credit validated that showing run following a compromised SLOG/TROUBLE_S making a SAVED CLOSE and GALLOP+ in the show result behind open length (and next out) winner, Double Burn. While today’s MCL event is technically a rise in class, in terms of race par finds lower here and could be seen as closer to a lateral move.

The change in class and par sits more obvious with #2 RODAVLAS coming back for this third start. In each of the two races to date they have been consistently SLOG while number wise the debut figure sits on the higher end of par and should hold fitness coming back from the turf route last month.

With that pair showing the pattern of SLOG, the contrast with #4 BEST DRESSED MAN from their races to date showing early speed could be the edge though their pattern comes late in NO_FINISH.

The highest recorded figures in this field sit with both #3 MY LAST ESCAPADE and #6 RAGNOW though with that said, their higher figures have been recorded at the route/two turn distance and lack an edge in numbers when isolating the sprint efforts. 

Looking at the Plot with the Fire/38 SpeedRate and visually showing the majority of the field bunched up together around Q1 and the ParLine. Of that group #5 RACARINO and #7 WINGING WAYS hold the edge as Squares though could have to deal with each other and the others in order to hold for the win; and the 5.5f distance could assist.

At the same time, the race shape could set up for #1 REMEMBER THE MAINE, a legitimate longshot (most recent win 7/2021); and #2 CHRISTMAS PRESENT one that is less of a longshot especially going back to their form from last season though must turn it around and find those races in this spot. 

#6 BETWITHBOTHHANDS appears live in this spot with the STRETCH out in distance for the second start of the season. That carries to race shape as a clear Q1 runner above the ParLine and strong Square Surface/Distance Plot position that is tough to ignore, and tough to see “on paper” with the three inside runners all appear to hold early speed to contest the pace. That race shape could shift more on race day with or without the MTO/AE runners.

Front runner #4 WICKED SURPRISE was able to sneak clear and LONE with the 6/29 win, unlikely to find that similar scenario where and that dynamic playing against #7 TEMPER TANTRUM making a WIDE CLOSE.

#5 SHADY MCGEE brings in form from the two pace races and should hold value with the 4^th place result on 5/15. That race was a quick turnaround in timing from the place finish on 5/8 though on both occasions posted a B- OptixGRADE with the lack of ROOM playing a role in the recent outcome.

#8 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY also projects to move up second off and added ground wheeling right back in what appeared a PREP just over a week ago. 

With some subtractions following scratches there is a strong addition with #13 SILVER QUARTERS drawing in. They fit this race and race shape while giving up some recency fresh from the two month break. 

With both #2 BLURT and #5 FLYING SAMURAI in this field and looking to keep each other honest, the trip should set up for #3 JET FLIGHT to save ground and look for first run. That inside trip and consistent form/figures could be key as looking at the Plot, they share a similar runstyle and projected tracking trip to #6 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE and #7 TWO COOKIE RULE drawn on their outside.

#4 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR had a look two weeks ago and while more was expected on the day, price compensation should hold to make the “longshot” case once again. Prior to the 6/26 event, they recorded a B OptixGRADE, a winning type effort returning from the layoff on 4/13. That nigh effort likely required recovery playing a role wheeling back in 11 days on 4/24 and rebounded on 5/11 making a CLOSE following the TROUBLE_S/TACTIC-  and was a NO_PUSH impacting the overall outcome/figure on 6/8. A rider change and quick turnaround could signal a further positive on intent. 

With some of the noted contentious paces earlier on the card, a fair race track is still required for those closer/Q4 types. That is noted here and especially with the Fire Contention paired with the 50 SpeedRate. #1 LUNDBURG could be unlikely in that scenario and with the rail draw something that has played against them and impacted the recent outcomes.

The dynamic as noted assist the off-the-pace types and Squares #5 MONDOGETSBUCKETS, stepping up looking for a third straight win; and Large Q4 #8 CORTESE looking to get back on track returning to Hawthorne and given more time between starts. #6 TAHOE RUN does not hold any edge of that Q4 group as a Circle, though that impart to the recent races and NO_PUSH/PREP in the 6/19 return suggesting they did not show their best on the day. 

#2 FROSTED ÉCLAIR was overlooked on 6/15 and back under similar conditions, similar rivals could find a similar outcome though unlikely similar odds.

Looking at the group from the 6/15 common race, #1 CHROME ATTACK also appeared intent shifting back to the turf and WARM on the day showed run making a MOVE while on COVER and still presents ABOVE on Class to support at the ML. #4 LONG TALL WOMAN finishing place/B- was restless in the GATE broke SLOG/TROUBLE_S and slight check (TROUBLE-) making the SAVED MOVE though did not appear to have been cost the win all things considered.

Looking at Standard (current form) #8 REBA ATTACK overlaps LONG TALL WOMAN the two nearly identical Plot position and Square shape to make a value case for as she projects to go off longer odds of the two.