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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun July 13th, 2025

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Emily's Analysis

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:43 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 CLOEY ATTACK looks to hold intent second off and the move back to statebred company for the first time in a long time. Her overall form and figures on the turf and sprinting fit on par and finds that key change in class landing a lower par here. In terms of current form, as noted second off while also showing run making a WIDE MOVE, something tougher to see with the running line and finishing position back on 6/26.

#8 FREEDOM LASS is having a full circle moment returning to the connections and Hawthorne where she started out her career late 2019. Since then she has been a consistent type out in California and consistent number wise in those races that fit clearly on par. That could carry here (and positive with the outside post) though still must overcome the returning long layoff (273-days) and doing something new the first time at this shorter 5.5f distance.

#1 DISGUISED DEVIL has ability and will be put to the test not only with the surface switch but taking on older for the first time. #6 KELLY’S GIRL also takes on older and winners for the first time and that includes her more established stablemate; #7 MISS MIKOS – one that earned the same C+ OptixGRADE as CLOEY ATTACK on 6/26 despite the change in outcome putting in a WIDE MOVE though with today’s shorter distance needs everything right on trip as well as a top effort – price compensation required. 

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 3:19 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Looking at the Plot tough to ignore the Large Square above the ParLine in #4 GO STORMIN GIRL, her edge in this race and in the right conditions to pair up wins for H. Rodriguez also represented by #3 PRANCIPANTS. Perhaps if there is an edge for others it is on the front end looking at the two Q1 Runners:

#1 LOST SUNSET wheels back from a legitimate EX – EXCUSE less than two weeks ago. She did not have her chance to compete with the TACTIC- (rider change today) following the TROUBLES+ and RUSH in running TROUBLE was in hand/NO_PUSH late finishing in a blanket for show as the top two finished together and clear in a photo for the win.

#2 MAMBA OUT had less of a legitimate “ex” though perhaps not her day coming out of a different race on 7/3, just 10-days ago. She was reluctant to load and restless in the GATE made a RUSH COVER before backing up (NO_KEEP) and was NO_PUSH after. She appears no works for the wear right back and class relief as well.

A longshot case can be made for #5 TEXAS HOTTIE while taking the class drop on 6/19 was on a very quick 7-day turnaround for that race and class drop and less than ideal TACTIC- with the WIDE trip and less fancied than her stablemate (2.2-1) winner, Wildwood Queen. 

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:52 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 ILLY SIMZ find considerable class relief returning from the 126-day layoff and first start on this circuit. She was entered under similar conditions going back to the first part of the meet, a 3/30 race, though might have needed more time since the ship and the three starts in shorter order during the OP meet. Each of the three starts held a higher par than today’s race and while the outcome can leave something to be desired the efforts showed run in spots and even slight flow-upgrade from the 2/14 start despite the PERFECT trip otherwise.

#5 SHARP ATTACK should hold intent with the change in class and in this second start back off the layoff. The two starts at this level last season both had some hurdles with the quick turnaround for the 5/26 race and flow upgrade with the route distance on 6/23. #4 WILD DREAMS technically finds class relief with the return to the level of her place finish back on 5/22 though closer to a lateral par from the 6/29 common race. That race at the higher level and first off the claim and 38-day break might benefit from the start and two week turnaround as well as a positive with J. Loveberry jumping back aboard despite the change in connections.

The 500-day layoff finds the return for #3 LIL CARRIE D as well as the change in class. Number wise she fits on par returning to a top effort and perhaps there is that opportunity with J. Felix aboard. Her overall record still presents some reservations and within that series has not often shown the willingness to pass horses – something we could see from Q4 Square #2 WAVE OF MEMORIES moving up late. The change in class is a big DROP and likely the right change for #6 ULALUME as she also returns from the layoff to make their belated second start. With that said, she does give up recency and a ready or not moment as she has been training post published works since the spring. 

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 4:28 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#9 EVEN THE WIND can be a bit pace dependent though looking at today’s race dynamic with five of the 10 in the main body (potentially adding AE #11 DYNAMIS) listed as E/EP runstyle horses should have the pace to chase. They also move up to a Q2 Square on the Plot in here, a shift from the other two starts this season in Q4 and has been more effective when in Q1/2/3 looking through prior seasons. That trip is key as their current form and figures validate them in this spot as a contender.  

#5 HOBBS will get their chance to STRETCH out for the first time and look to be intent with the progress, improving Grades coming back in this third start off the layoff. They will also add blinkers to further intent and while that could show early speed.

#2 CANYON STREAK wheels right back for this second start of the cycle showing run in the CBY Derby noting the open length 1-2 pacesetting chalk winner, Sushi Man. Notably, CANYON STREAK was heavily washed out raced WIDE and progress brushing (TROUBLE-) making their MOVE for minors, a three horse blanket for those underneath spots. 

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 5:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 IZZY’S MONSTER shows up as advertised sitting ABOVE+ on Speed, Plot and Class. As far as current form she returns from a slight 45-day freshening and perhaps needed running a new to with the dominant B+ win and figure on 4/20 and showing up in a highly contentious allowance on 5/3 at CD before wheeling right back on 5/29 with a TROUBLE trip impacting her from start to finish and overall outcome.

#5 LEGALLY LUCKY brings in recency and form back to the main track. That also comes with a rider change to project intent. She has been without a win since a dominant allowance score over this course and distance late last season (9/29) though has held her own since in some tougher claiming races at Oaklawn and competitive with the 6/12 B- effort making a WIDE RUSH and tough beat as the BOS with the pocket trip winner and today’s rival #6 AUTISM COMPASSION, those two together at the wire.

#8 NO NANNETTE NO has shown more tactical speed this year though that being a change from last season. Last season she was compromised with the placement and primarily race dynamic. Those things could change here and with a longshot look as she brings in current form, a confident change in class and J. Felix jumping back aboard, a rider that has been up and with success in the past including two wins. 

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 5:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 DEAL’EM AND WEEP is deserving of the public support she received last out in this spot. Today’s change in class is key and while dominant/B+ breaking her maiden to close out 2024 she caught a lower par (WEAK) and along with the layoff was a significant step up in class for the 6/1 return, a race won by her stablemate Roar of Silence. DEAL’EM AND WEEP should benefit from the start, the class drop, slight distance change and hold fitness second off and from a WIDE trip.

#5 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN brings in current form and form back to F&M for just the second time this season, she as game in defeat by a strong rival in Catholic Sue back on 6/12, PRESSED and staying on well through a VF early pace. Tactically she has shown  early speed throughout her career though not a “one-way” type; she has shown she can pass horses and close. That tactic could work out in this field as there are other front running types and some of those coming out of dirt sprints to ensure an honest early pace.

#8 CHEVAL B also brings in current form and form likely buried with the recent running lines and finishing positions. The connections were ambitious following the maiden win to step up in allowance company though back on the grass, in what appears her ideal surface recorded an improved number in that 6/1 race. The connections dropped in to claiming company, a favorable change on 6/12 though timing perhaps not matching ideal with the 11-day turnaround and that along with the SLOG and WIDE trip impacted the effort on the day and return with the 31-day freshening to suggest she is sitting on her peak effort. 

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:59 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

A competitive race to close out the Sunday card with a case to be made for many individuals. The race shape is also competitive and looking contentious (higher SpeedRate) with the Standard Plot based on current form. That early contention looks to include the three inside runners with #2 BEAU SOLEIL and #3 RIETTA likely betting choices here though trip comes into play sharing that EP runstyle while lined up side by side. Will also credit #1 SCRAPPY PATCH as a legitimate longshot with the change in class while a positive surface switch to the TURF.

#4 VISIONISTA could be overlooked given the recent running lines though upgraded in today’s race shape and with current form slight change in distance, rider, and par from the returning allowance on 6/1.

As far as returning from recent wins all three #5 SURPRISE ME AGAIN, #7 CATHOLIC SUE and #10 BUTTONS AND LACE recorded B+ OptixGRADES in their respective races to suggest they can take the step up in class they are given here.

The placement in this spot and trip could be a hurdle on the win end for both #6 MY BUDDY BROOKS and #9 GET N TIPSY however there are things to respect and include for coverage, underneath and with the finale High Five wagering.