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Sun July 13th, 2025 |
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Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:43 PM CST
#5 CLOEY ATTACK looks to hold intent second off and the move
back to statebred company for the first time in a long time. Her overall form
and figures on the turf and sprinting fit on par and finds that key change in
class landing a lower par here. In terms of current form, as noted second off
while also showing run making a WIDE MOVE, something tougher to see with the
running line and finishing position back on 6/26.
#8 FREEDOM LASS is having a full circle moment returning to
the connections and Hawthorne where she started out her career late 2019. Since
then she has been a consistent type out in California and consistent number
wise in those races that fit clearly on par. That could carry here (and
positive with the outside post) though still must overcome the returning long
layoff (273-days) and doing something new the first time at this shorter 5.5f
distance.
#1 DISGUISED DEVIL has ability and will be put to the test
not only with the surface switch but taking on older for the first time. #6
KELLY’S GIRL also takes on older and winners for the first time and that
includes her more established stablemate; #7 MISS MIKOS – one that earned the
same C+ OptixGRADE as CLOEY ATTACK on 6/26 despite the change in outcome
putting in a WIDE MOVE though with today’s shorter distance needs everything
right on trip as well as a top effort – price compensation required.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:19 PM CST
Looking at the Plot tough to ignore the Large Square above
the ParLine in #4 GO STORMIN GIRL, her edge in this race and in the right
conditions to pair up wins for H. Rodriguez also represented by #3 PRANCIPANTS.
Perhaps if there is an edge for others it is on the front end looking at the
two Q1 Runners:
#1 LOST SUNSET wheels back from a legitimate EX – EXCUSE less
than two weeks ago. She did not have her chance to compete with the TACTIC-
(rider change today) following the TROUBLES+ and RUSH in running TROUBLE was in
hand/NO_PUSH late finishing in a blanket for show as the top two finished
together and clear in a photo for the win.
#2 MAMBA OUT had less of a legitimate “ex” though perhaps
not her day coming out of a different race on 7/3, just 10-days ago. She was reluctant
to load and restless in the GATE made a RUSH COVER before backing up (NO_KEEP)
and was NO_PUSH after. She appears no works for the wear right back and class
relief as well.
A longshot case can be made for #5 TEXAS HOTTIE while taking
the class drop on 6/19 was on a very quick 7-day turnaround for that race and
class drop and less than ideal TACTIC- with the WIDE trip and less fancied than
her stablemate (2.2-1) winner, Wildwood Queen.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:52 PM CST
#1 ILLY SIMZ find considerable class relief returning from
the 126-day layoff and first start on this circuit. She was entered under
similar conditions going back to the first part of the meet, a 3/30 race,
though might have needed more time since the ship and the three starts in shorter
order during the OP meet. Each of the three starts held a higher par than today’s
race and while the outcome can leave something to be desired the efforts showed
run in spots and even slight flow-upgrade from the 2/14 start despite the
PERFECT trip otherwise.
#5 SHARP ATTACK should hold intent with the change in class
and in this second start back off the layoff. The two starts at this level last
season both had some hurdles with the quick turnaround for the 5/26 race and
flow upgrade with the route distance on 6/23. #4 WILD DREAMS technically finds
class relief with the return to the level of her place finish back on 5/22
though closer to a lateral par from the 6/29 common race. That race at the
higher level and first off the claim and 38-day break might benefit from the
start and two week turnaround as well as a positive with J. Loveberry jumping
back aboard despite the change in connections.
The 500-day layoff finds the return for #3 LIL CARRIE D as
well as the change in class. Number wise she fits on par returning to a top
effort and perhaps there is that opportunity with J. Felix aboard. Her overall
record still presents some reservations and within that series has not often
shown the willingness to pass horses – something we could see from Q4 Square #2
WAVE OF MEMORIES moving up late. The change in class is a big DROP and likely the
right change for #6 ULALUME as she also returns from the layoff to make their
belated second start. With that said, she does give up recency and a ready or
not moment as she has been training post published works since the spring.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:28 PM CST
#9 EVEN THE WIND can be a bit pace dependent though looking
at today’s race dynamic with five of the 10 in the main body (potentially adding
AE #11 DYNAMIS) listed as E/EP runstyle horses should have the pace to chase.
They also move up to a Q2 Square on the Plot in here, a shift from the other
two starts this season in Q4 and has been more effective when in Q1/2/3 looking
through prior seasons. That trip is key as their current form and figures validate
them in this spot as a contender.
#5 HOBBS will get their chance to STRETCH out for the first
time and look to be intent with the progress, improving Grades coming back in
this third start off the layoff. They will also add blinkers to further intent
and while that could show early speed.
#2 CANYON STREAK wheels right back for this second start of
the cycle showing run in the CBY Derby noting the open length 1-2 pacesetting
chalk winner, Sushi Man. Notably, CANYON STREAK was heavily washed out raced
WIDE and progress brushing (TROUBLE-) making their MOVE for minors, a three
horse blanket for those underneath spots.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 5:00 PM CST
#4 IZZY’S MONSTER shows up as advertised sitting ABOVE+ on Speed,
Plot and Class. As far as current form she returns from a slight 45-day
freshening and perhaps needed running a new to with the dominant B+ win and
figure on 4/20 and showing up in a highly contentious allowance on 5/3 at CD
before wheeling right back on 5/29 with a TROUBLE trip impacting her from start
to finish and overall outcome.
#5 LEGALLY LUCKY brings in recency and form back to the main
track. That also comes with a rider change to project intent. She has been
without a win since a dominant allowance score over this course and distance late
last season (9/29) though has held her own since in some tougher claiming races
at Oaklawn and competitive with the 6/12 B- effort making a WIDE RUSH and tough
beat as the BOS with the pocket trip winner and today’s rival #6 AUTISM
COMPASSION, those two together at the wire.
#8 NO NANNETTE NO has shown more tactical speed this year
though that being a change from last season. Last season she was compromised
with the placement and primarily race dynamic. Those things could change here
and with a longshot look as she brings in current form, a confident change in
class and J. Felix jumping back aboard, a rider that has been up and with success
in the past including two wins.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:30 PM CST
#7 DEAL’EM AND WEEP is deserving of the public support she
received last out in this spot. Today’s change in class is key and while dominant/B+
breaking her maiden to close out 2024 she caught a lower par (WEAK) and along with
the layoff was a significant step up in class for the 6/1 return, a race won by
her stablemate Roar of Silence. DEAL’EM AND WEEP should benefit from the start,
the class drop, slight distance change and hold fitness second off and from a
WIDE trip.
#5 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN brings in current form and form back to
F&M for just the second time this season, she as game in defeat by a strong
rival in Catholic Sue back on 6/12, PRESSED and staying on well through a VF
early pace. Tactically she has shown
early speed throughout her career though not a “one-way” type; she has
shown she can pass horses and close. That tactic could work out in this field
as there are other front running types and some of those coming out of dirt
sprints to ensure an honest early pace.
#8 CHEVAL B also brings in current form and form likely
buried with the recent running lines and finishing positions. The connections
were ambitious following the maiden win to step up in allowance company though
back on the grass, in what appears her ideal surface recorded an improved number
in that 6/1 race. The connections dropped in to claiming company, a favorable
change on 6/12 though timing perhaps not matching ideal with the 11-day turnaround
and that along with the SLOG and WIDE trip impacted the effort on the day and
return with the 31-day freshening to suggest she is sitting on her peak effort.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:59 PM CST
A competitive race to close out the Sunday card with a case
to be made for many individuals. The race shape is also competitive and looking
contentious (higher SpeedRate) with the Standard Plot based on current form.
That early contention looks to include the three inside runners with #2 BEAU SOLEIL
and #3 RIETTA likely betting choices here though trip comes into play sharing
that EP runstyle while lined up side by side. Will also credit #1 SCRAPPY PATCH
as a legitimate longshot with the change in class while a positive surface switch
to the TURF.
#4 VISIONISTA could be overlooked given the recent running lines
though upgraded in today’s race shape and with current form slight change in
distance, rider, and par from the returning allowance on 6/1.
As far as returning from recent wins all three #5 SURPRISE ME
AGAIN, #7 CATHOLIC SUE and #10 BUTTONS AND LACE recorded B+ OptixGRADES in
their respective races to suggest they can take the step up in class they are
given here.
The placement in this spot and trip could be a hurdle on the
win end for both #6 MY BUDDY BROOKS and #9 GET N TIPSY however there are things
to respect and include for coverage, underneath and with the finale High Five wagering.