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Thu July 17th, 2025 |
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Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:43 PM CST
This race starts off the early PICK 5 CARRYOVER $7722. And looks to start off with a heavy favorite in #3 STRANGE ARRANGE. The class drop is notable as is their early speed and outside of fellow pacesetter #2 CAN MAN DO with STRANGE ARRANGE given the edge of the two on the Plot and over the other three #1 HATCHET CREEK, #4 ALIBI IKE and #5 MALIGATOR all with their work cut out for them from off the pace Squares.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:11 PM CST
#3 ALADANTE had a longshot look showing up on the
turf and with the class relief on 5/11 validating themselves with a solid show
finish forced to RUSH after a TROUBLE_S staying on through a DUEL recording the
B- OptixGRADE. They return to the proper MCL conditions now second-off
following a WIDE trip in MSW company two weeks ago.
Their biggest threat appears to be #5 SAN ANTON
showing up with significant class relief noting the higher race par and purse
from their races out in SoCal. They should move up naturally on this circuit
with their five stateside speed figures all above today’s race par. While they
fit strongly on Class (ABOVE+) and Speed/Plot (ABOVE) they are still present
some hurdles with the pattern of layoff lines and gate issues (SLOG) things to
consider at the shorter odds and projected high use in the sequence.
Looking at the Plot, a case can be made for #1 MONEY
AGENT another B- effort shuffled from the POCKET making a SAVED MOVE in
the 5/11 common race with ALADANTE. That was their first start ever at the
sprint distance and perhaps what they had been looking for all along. Stablemate
#8 BLACK RUSSIAN also from the 5/11 common race visually presenting STRETCH
that day and moved up (B-) with the WIDE MOVE in the 6/26 mile event.
Worth mentioning the two T. Tracy runners #4 ROYAL AND READY
(one that has started to settle down in the paddock as of late, though can
often lose their race before it starts) and #6 WAGON POWER as both wheel back
from NO_PUSH trips in their most recent starts. The pair need new tops though
certainly would not be any surprises in here.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:43 PM CST
#6 FAST N HAPPY going to be the value play here. She fits at this level and off the freshening there the outside draw suits her and in today’s race shape. Looking at the Plot she sits well as a Q2 Square and that position outside of pacesetting rail runner #1 HONOR HIS HALF with both #3 PALACE MAGIC and #4 GOLDEN NOTE (takes a step up in class) keeping the pace honest in Q1/3. Another change for FAST N HAPPY is the return of L. COLON, the rider aboard with the rise in class and much higher par on 4/6 (give some excuse there for placement) and up for the win back in October at FP to suggest intent.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:08 PM CST
Tough to knock the connections of #2 WRITTEN CONSENT
stepping up in class in June off the pair of wins and improving numbers. They
will move back today looking to get back to winning ways and value could follow
in this case coming off a well beaten 4th behind the 3-2 chalk
winner, Diamonds Joy, three weeks ago, though still recorded a B- OptixGRADE effort.
#4 DIXIE PENNY returns from the two month break back
to the conditional $5k level she was picked up back April. She probably could benefit
from a freshening running throughout the Oaklawn season and shorter rest
between starts during the first part of the meet.
#1 DELIZIOSA could be the “BOS” though will be required to
run back to a top, the type of effort to score on 6/13, working HARD for the
win on the say. She also had a TROUBLE_S and RUSH though assisted with a Slow
early pace to recover into. Number wise DELIZIOSA is “faster” than the recorded
efforts so far from #3 MISS SAIPAN though MISS SAIPAN is quick enough to keep
her honest on the front end. Numbers also on the lower end of par for #5 ORNERY
ANGEL despite winning under similar conditions two weeks ago caught a lower par
for the level (giving her a look on that day) on 7/3.
#6 RAINY MOUNTAIN also caught a lower par picking up
the win returning from the 287-day layoff on 5/4. Number wise she also comes in
on the lighter end assessing the races since the layoff return in April 2024
though going back to her 2022-23 season (starting out her career at age 4) she
was recording consistent figures and showing class at the allowance level, a
hail mary return to those efforts would see her as a contender.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:38 PM CST
In the “pay leg” of the Early Pick 5, there is a case to be
made for many in here that depending on the earlier structuring leaving some
room to spread makes sense. With that said, part of the include sits value:
#7 LARRY THE POET
looks to hold intent following a forward progression “every other” pattern
coming into this race and back to a sprint. They dropped to this level while
giving up 43-days of recency into the 7/6 race at the route distance, something
they are not too familiar or success with. On the day they were WARM made an
EASY_LEAD then rated back tracking a
Very Slow early (and late) pace before losing ground/NO_KEEP. Giles has been aboard
in the past (both wins with Giles) and taking back over today, along with the
change in distance, the quick turnaround and remaining at the same $12.5k level
could present a rebound.
#2 UNCAPTURED PULSE will be tested with the
change in class once again and noting the step up on 6/29. With that said and
given the trip (SLOG, SHUFFLE, WIDE, NO_KEEP, NO_PUSH) as well as the much
higher race par than today’s event they could also be more effective. Looking
at the Plot, they track as a Q1 Square drawn inside of #6 SECESSION (also Q1 Square)
they could work to clear from their post and has a step up in class as well.
#1 VANISKY also challenged with the step up in class
and the rail draw. Noting they hold back class and numbers to compete at this
level and par as well as the strong of recent B- OptixGRADE and subtle trips.
Another trip could be factored with the rail draw as a horse that has some left
side vision impairment though not out of it.
#5 CANYON SHADOWS follows a true “second off” the
layoff pattern and also bringing upside from the 7/6 common race return. They
move off the rail, find a rider change with J. Loveberry jumping aboard and
showed a B- effort run making a RUSH and MOVE with TROUBLE- that did not appear
to cost them a better placement.
The 7/6 winner, #3 VIA DEL CORSO (capable, though likely
underlay) was tough to saddle and restless in the GATE though also with a
PERFECT trip was able to score. They perhaps needed that trip and with the
GALLOP- likely the 5.5f distance – especially as #4 VERRAZANOINTHESKY
after a messy break (TROUBLE_S RUSH WIDE) put in a late MOVE and if that event
was 6f, an argument to be made the result a flip-flop.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:09 PM CST
Off the pace is not the easiest trip in these turf sprints
though given the complexion of this field, Fire/63 SpeedRate that does present
a scenario for that runstyle. #7 DEVILS RED had a look under similar
conditions and par on 7/6. The SLOG along with the rail draw had them further
off the pace and made a late MOVE and GALLOP+. They are have early speed (Q1)
though mostly in routes mostly. They have shown they are not a need the lead
type sprinting and given a look right back in here.
#8 MIDNIGHT SPECIAL turned in a B/BTL effort with the
trip back on 5/25. They had TROUBLE_S in running TROUBLE made a WIDE MOVE in
the competitive show outcome. Heading into that race they were given a look
based on the two late last season turf sprints as well as prior grass form.
They appear well-spotted and given a freshening and rider change to suggest
further intent.
#5 STAR OF KODIAK can run from off the pace and makes
a belated return to the turf in this second start off the layoff. Class wise
they have been competitive under similar conditions in the past, though in
terms of the recent series of races this is a step up.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:39 PM CST
When #3 DOUBLE THUNDER is right he is a tough race
horse. The change in timing coming back from the 46-day break could be key and won
off a similar freshening going back to the 4/6 start. The three races after all
competitive though shorter of the winning effort with the two week turnaround
between each start.
#5 MILLARD’S SMILE takes on a contentious
group though is sharp right now for live connections and tough to dismiss. Looking
at the Plot, DOUBLE THUNDER could get the jump on them at projected slightly longer
odds though not much between the two. Those runners the edge over #4 GLOBAL
EMPIRE taking the class rise though can be used underneath.
The early pace should be contentious with #6 LITTLE STEVEN in
Q1 on a three race win streak though taking a rise in class with the higher par
and some HARD efforts into this race. #2 GENERAL ISSUE showing their best this
season when LONE and likely joined by #7 CONI’S COUP as they make their second
start off the layoff and could be given an excuse in the 6/5 return as they
were very fractious in the GATE and bumped around at the start (TROUBLE_S)
before making a WIDE RUSH and eventually losing ground.
#1 SHAKE UP is a bit of a wild card as they still
must prove themselves around two turns. They did score with the 7.5f turf win
at CBY closing out 2024, holding just enough with the BLANKET finish, five together
at the wire. The connections did stretch out on the grass last month and could
be intent to give the route option. In terms of form cycle, they are following an
every other pattern and even suggest moving forward as well as the front wrap
removal in that recent start.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 6:09 PM CST
The change in class is notable for #5 SADIE’S SWEET RIDE as
they make the move to statebred company and should move up naturally off their
figures in with today’s field/par. She showed run on debut mostly after the
wire with a GALLOP+ and should be fit unable to save any ground at any point of
call with the WIDE trip around two turns on 6/12.
#8 CHELA found the change in class to statebred company on
6/29 though after making a RUSH was no match for the BOS chalk winner,
Wednesday Addams. Going back to her 6/1 debut the common race with SADIE’S SWEET
RIDE, CHELA (B-) raced GREEN another RUSH and sneaky CLOSE noting she was the
lone 4yo in the field that day.
#4 SABRE ATTACK makes the change in class for this second
start though a very positive surface switch as she is all TURF! She should move
up on the grass and even with the 6/17 experience racing GREEN broke
SLOG/TROUBLE_S and in hand/NO_PUSH late with those turfy visuals down the lane.
Stablemate #2 DAISY MAE ATTACK took some early wagering support in the turf
debut last September. The outside draw and WIDE trip did her no favors and
similar for this longer bodied type drawing the rail recently.
#7 TIZMEONEMORETIME was upgraded with the surface switch
making a belated return to the TURF on 6/29, showing improvement and slight
upgrade pushing the pace with NO_COVER. That 6/29 event, a common race for many
in this field including their place stablemate #6 HARPER BRIANA making a late
close, though perhaps flattered with the race flow and was able to save some
ground from the rail. #1 SKIP TO BALI and #3 WAHIDA OF MARDEN have established
form and figures though need their best
effort and lack the potential improvement compared to their lightly raced
rivals.
Thu July 17th, 2025 |
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Jim's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:43 PM CST
We kick off the day with an Early Pick 5 carryover of $7,722. A vulnerable favorite in the opener but 3-STRANGE ARRANGE may still be able to handle these based solely off the massive drop. He has speed but may find company from Can Man Do. 1-HATCHET CREEK poses the biggest upset threat. He often runs well. The only concern is he has just one win over the past two years. 4-ALIBI IKE will benefit if there's a pace battle upfront. He's another dropping in class but will need his best in here.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:11 PM CST
Trainer Coty Rosin has sent a few to the Hawthorne turf this meet that have had success. 5-SAN ANTON (IRE) could be another of those. He is lightly races the last two years but drops in class with intent to win. 6-WAGON POWER tries the turf for the first time. He has raced with mixed results this year but showed some signs in starts two and three back. 3-ALADANTE just missed while sprinting two back. He was in a bit tough in his last but drops back in for the tag today.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:43 PM CST
1-HONOR HIS HALF is a standout in this spot. She has run well in all four starts on the meet and has the speed to clear and never look back from the inside. 4-GOLDEN NOTE should be pressing in here today. She was a solid winner in her last but could be left to chase the entire way. 3-PALACE MAGIC has had a ton of success at Hawthorne but was no match for Honor His Half last out. Look for her to pick up the pieces late.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:08 PM CST
Another spot where rail speed may be the key. 1-DELIZIOSA comes off a good win in Iowa in her last. She faced tougher here two back and held her own. Expect another solid performance today. 4-DIXIE PENNY won here two back before stepping up and facing Deliziosa in her last. She comes in off a short layoff into this spot for a barn that has had a nice meet. 2-WRITTEN CONSENT will be hoping for a contested pace to chase. She won back to back races here in April and May and could be a sleeper at a price.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:38 PM CST
This is the payoff leg of the Early Pick 5 with some price potential in here. 4-VERRAZANOINTHESKY could be that horses as he comes back at the same level as his near miss last out. He goes a sixteenth further today and should find some pace to chasse. 5-CANYON SHADOWS ran third last out in his first back off the layoff. He is another that should benefit from the added pace as he figures to run on late. 3-VIA DEL CORSO won last out as a well-time moved got him up at the wire. He should be rating a bit closer in here as he figures to contend throughout.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:09 PM CST
Turf or dirt, 6-COMISKEY PARK should be tough. He won a race that came off the grass in his last and has been right there in numerous turf sprints throughout his career. Look for him to stalk early and run on late. 1-WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK has speed as he draws the rail in here. If he can shake loose from Hurts So Bad early, he could steal this race. 8-MIDNIGHT SPECIAL ran a big race on grass in his last but comes into this spot with just one short work since that start. He has ability but I have enough questions to where I can't put him on top.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:39 PM CST
A really competitive race here as none of these can be counted out. With the ability to stalk the pace, 2-GENERAL ISSUE (FR) may get the trip from the second flight. He defeated similar in the slop two back and won going away over a fast track four back. Felix looks to be a good fit in the saddle. 6-LITTLE STEVEN has speed as he may look to clear and try to wire these. He won his last two in races taken off the turf but steps up a bit in this spot. 5-MILLARD'S SMILE has been very good this year, winning four of six starts. This will be his toughest test of the season but it's hard to knock his recent form.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 6:09 PM CST
Wide open race in the finale. Starting with the outside runner in 8-CHELA as she could show some speed and gets back in with state-breds. Let's see if she is able to clear and hold on. 7-TIZMEONEMORETIME ran well on the grass last out while at a big price. She has been better in her starts this year and could be a decent price. 6-HARPER BRIANA can contend in this spot but the 0 for 26 in the win column makes it tough to endorse her on top. She will need some pace to chase but should be running on late.
Thu July 17th, 2025 |
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Ron's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:43 PM CST
1-HATCHET CREEK completes the sprint-route-sprint cycle.
He’s always been far better sprinting. Can run them down. I personally wouldn’t
bet 3-STRANGE ARRANGE, other than in a horizontal wager, but he is dropping
many levels to run in this race and is likely to go off as the big favorite. 4-ALIBI
IKE drops and moves back to the main track. He hasn’t been in the best of form
but he fits well with these and his chances would seem to increase greatly if
it happens to rain.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:11 PM CST
5-SAN ANTON raced only once last year and only once this
year but he’s dropping sharply while making his first start for this barn. His
previous races were in Europe and Southern Cal. He’s obviously meeting easier.
Could come alive. 1-MONEY AGENT tired when stretched out for last but he
narrowly missed two races back when he ran at this distance. 3-ALDANTE drops
back to the right level. He ran out of gas in last when taking on maiden
specials in a longer race but he finished a close third in his previous start
after fighting for the lead.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:43 PM CST
1-HONOR HIS HALF seems most likely but she could be
vulnerable again. She ran well in all her local starts. However, she just seems
to run out of gas in the final yards of her races and she’s likely to face
plenty early competition. There’s a good chance she’ll hang on but an equally
good chance that she’ll be passed late. If 2-WILDWOOD QUEEN runs the way she
did two races back, she could pass them all. However, she doesn’t always fire. Maybe the
switch in riders will do the trick. 4-GOLDEN NOTE improved enough to score in a
non-winners of two last time out. Probably meets a bit tougher in this
non-winners of three but not so much tougher than she can’t make it two in a
row.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:08 PM CST
1-DELIZIOSA will try to wire her second field in a row.
She finished third here two races back but was in against a tougher group.
Shipped to Iowa to win her last at this level. She isn’t the only speed in the
race but she could be the best. 5-ORNERY ANGEL switched barns for last and
responded with a narrow victory. Although she didn’t win that race by much, she
was moving well late and that could hint that she’ll finish even stronger at
today’s longer distance. 4-DIXIE PENNY finished nine lengths behind top choice
the last time they met but she is quite capable of bouncing back with a better
effort. She’s been successful both on and off the pace. Could be a threat here
either way. 3-MISS SAIPAN has been ridder by Gonzalez two times this meet and
she won both those efforts. 2-WRITTEN CONSENT raced competitively versus better
in last couple and could be very tough with the drop to the right level.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:38 PM CST
5-CANYON SHADOWS needed last. He ran well to finish third
behind a couple of these. If that race would have been at today’s distance, he
could have finished second or maybe even won. Might be poised to surprise. It
would be no surprise if 3-VIA DEL CORSO came right back to win again. He beat
top pick by a couple lengths, giving him three victories in his four local
starts. He’ll likely to be racing right off the early lead and his good
position could allow him to move first. 4-VERRAZANOINTHESKY just finished
second to Via Del Corso and a couple lengths ahead of Canyon Shadows. However,
he hadn’t had a race like that in a year. Not sure he’ll be able to do it two
times in a row.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:09 PM CST
2-JOE THE TAILOR hasn’t had as much turf experience as
some in here but he did run well in both grass attempts, including a sharp win
last time out. This field might be slightly tougher than his last but think he’s
up to the challenge. 1-WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK tired late in last but that race was
a furlong farther. He has the speed to lead throughout but probably doesn’t
need the early lead to be formidable late. 8-MIDNIGHT SPECIAL’s ability to come
on late should come in handy in this speed-filled race. However, it’s been
nearly two months since his last start, he had only one published drill during
that time (and it came a month after his race, and it’s been nearly a month
since that drill. Don’t know if he’s fully prepared for this contest.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Wide-open event but I will go with 5-MILLARD’S SMILE. He’s
always been good here and is coming off two straight dominating victories and
wins in four of his last five races. The pace should set well for his late run.
Can stretch his win streak to three. 6-LITTLE STEVEN’s speed figures lag behind
those of many of his rivals but he won his last three races. He was claimed
from last by a barn that scores with over 36% of their first-time claims.
Loveberry stays aboard for his new connections. 7-CONI’S COUP lost his 2025
debut by 36 lengths but he’s dropping to his lowest level ever. He’s fast from
the gate. Runners from his barn often improve in their second starts after
layoffs, winning 38% of the time.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 6:09 PM CST
Not in love with 5-SADIE’S SWEET RIDE but she races for
the top turf barn and she goes from open maiden specials into a race restricted
to Illinois breds. 8-CHELA was favored in last against this type after an
unexpected good showing against open company in her career debut but she
displayed only brief speed before giving up. If she runs the way she did in her
debut she would probably win this but, in any case, she has to show more than
she did in last. 6-HARPER BRIANA finished second in her last two races, including
a second against runners similar to these in last, her turf debut.