Handicapper Tips & Picks

This race starts off the early PICK 5 CARRYOVER $7722. And looks to start off with a heavy favorite in #3 STRANGE ARRANGE. The class drop is notable as is their early speed and outside of fellow pacesetter #2 CAN MAN DO with STRANGE ARRANGE given the edge of the two on the Plot and over the other three #1 HATCHET CREEK, #4 ALIBI IKE and #5 MALIGATOR all with their work cut out for them from off the pace Squares.

#3 ALADANTE had a longshot look showing up on the turf and with the class relief on 5/11 validating themselves with a solid show finish forced to RUSH after a TROUBLE_S staying on through a DUEL recording the B- OptixGRADE. They return to the proper MCL conditions now second-off following a WIDE trip in MSW company two weeks ago.

Their biggest threat appears to be #5 SAN ANTON showing up with significant class relief noting the higher race par and purse from their races out in SoCal. They should move up naturally on this circuit with their five stateside speed figures all above today’s race par. While they fit strongly on Class (ABOVE+) and Speed/Plot (ABOVE) they are still present some hurdles with the pattern of layoff lines and gate issues (SLOG) things to consider at the shorter odds and projected high use in the sequence.

Looking at the Plot, a case can be made for #1 MONEY AGENT another B- effort shuffled from the POCKET making a SAVED MOVE in the 5/11 common race with ALADANTE. That was their first start ever at the sprint distance and perhaps what they had been looking for all along. Stablemate #8 BLACK RUSSIAN also from the 5/11 common race visually presenting STRETCH that day and moved up (B-) with the WIDE MOVE in the 6/26 mile event.

Worth mentioning the two T. Tracy runners #4 ROYAL AND READY (one that has started to settle down in the paddock as of late, though can often lose their race before it starts) and #6 WAGON POWER as both wheel back from NO_PUSH trips in their most recent starts. The pair need new tops though certainly would not be any surprises in here. 

#6 FAST N HAPPY going to be the value play here. She fits at this level and off the freshening there the outside draw suits her and in today’s race shape. Looking at the Plot she sits well as a Q2 Square and that position outside of pacesetting rail runner #1 HONOR HIS HALF with both #3 PALACE MAGIC and #4 GOLDEN NOTE (takes a step up in class) keeping the pace honest in Q1/3. Another change for FAST N HAPPY is the return of L. COLON, the rider aboard with the rise in class and much higher par on 4/6 (give some excuse there for placement) and up for the win back in October at FP to suggest intent.

Tough to knock the connections of #2 WRITTEN CONSENT stepping up in class in June off the pair of wins and improving numbers. They will move back today looking to get back to winning ways and value could follow in this case coming off a well beaten 4^th behind the 3-2 chalk winner, Diamonds Joy, three weeks ago, though still recorded a B- OptixGRADE effort.

#4 DIXIE PENNY returns from the two month break back to the conditional $5k level she was picked up back April. She probably could benefit from a freshening running throughout the Oaklawn season and shorter rest between starts during the first part of the meet.

#1 DELIZIOSA could be the “BOS” though will be required to run back to a top, the type of effort to score on 6/13, working HARD for the win on the say. She also had a TROUBLE_S and RUSH though assisted with a Slow early pace to recover into. Number wise DELIZIOSA is “faster” than the recorded efforts so far from #3 MISS SAIPAN though MISS SAIPAN is quick enough to keep her honest on the front end. Numbers also on the lower end of par for #5 ORNERY ANGEL despite winning under similar conditions two weeks ago caught a lower par for the level (giving her a look on that day) on 7/3.

#6 RAINY MOUNTAIN also caught a lower par picking up the win returning from the 287-day layoff on 5/4. Number wise she also comes in on the lighter end assessing the races since the layoff return in April 2024 though going back to her 2022-23 season (starting out her career at age 4) she was recording consistent figures and showing class at the allowance level, a hail mary return to those efforts would see her as a contender. 

In the “pay leg” of the Early Pick 5, there is a case to be made for many in here that depending on the earlier structuring leaving some room to spread makes sense. With that said, part of the include sits value:

 #7 LARRY THE POET looks to hold intent following a forward progression “every other” pattern coming into this race and back to a sprint. They dropped to this level while giving up 43-days of recency into the 7/6 race at the route distance, something they are not too familiar or success with. On the day they were WARM made an EASY_LEAD then rated back tracking  a Very Slow early (and late) pace before losing ground/NO_KEEP. Giles has been aboard in the past (both wins with Giles) and taking back over today, along with the change in distance, the quick turnaround and remaining at the same $12.5k level could present a rebound.

#2 UNCAPTURED PULSE will be tested with the change in class once again and noting the step up on 6/29. With that said and given the trip (SLOG, SHUFFLE, WIDE, NO_KEEP, NO_PUSH) as well as the much higher race par than today’s event they could also be more effective. Looking at the Plot, they track as a Q1 Square drawn inside of #6 SECESSION (also Q1 Square) they could work to clear from their post and has a step up in class as well.

#1 VANISKY also challenged with the step up in class and the rail draw. Noting they hold back class and numbers to compete at this level and par as well as the strong of recent B- OptixGRADE and subtle trips. Another trip could be factored with the rail draw as a horse that has some left side vision impairment though not out of it.

#5 CANYON SHADOWS follows a true “second off” the layoff pattern and also bringing upside from the 7/6 common race return. They move off the rail, find a rider change with J. Loveberry jumping aboard and showed a B- effort run making a RUSH and MOVE with TROUBLE- that did not appear to cost them a better placement.

The 7/6 winner, #3 VIA DEL CORSO (capable, though likely underlay) was tough to saddle and restless in the GATE though also with a PERFECT trip was able to score. They perhaps needed that trip and with the GALLOP- likely the 5.5f distance – especially as #4 VERRAZANOINTHESKY after a messy break (TROUBLE_S RUSH WIDE) put in a late MOVE and if that event was 6f, an argument to be made the result a flip-flop. 

Off the pace is not the easiest trip in these turf sprints though given the complexion of this field, Fire/63 SpeedRate that does present a scenario for that runstyle. #7 DEVILS RED had a look under similar conditions and par on 7/6. The SLOG along with the rail draw had them further off the pace and made a late MOVE and GALLOP+. They are have early speed (Q1) though mostly in routes mostly. They have shown they are not a need the lead type sprinting and given a look right back in here.

#8 MIDNIGHT SPECIAL turned in a B/BTL effort with the trip back on 5/25. They had TROUBLE_S in running TROUBLE made a WIDE MOVE in the competitive show outcome. Heading into that race they were given a look based on the two late last season turf sprints as well as prior grass form. They appear well-spotted and given a freshening and rider change to suggest further intent.  

#5 STAR OF KODIAK can run from off the pace and makes a belated return to the turf in this second start off the layoff. Class wise they have been competitive under similar conditions in the past, though in terms of the recent series of races this is a step up. 

When #3 DOUBLE THUNDER is right he is a tough race horse. The change in timing coming back from the 46-day break could be key and won off a similar freshening going back to the 4/6 start. The three races after all competitive though shorter of the winning effort with the two week turnaround between each start.

#5 MILLARD’S SMILE takes on a contentious group though is sharp right now for live connections and tough to dismiss. Looking at the Plot, DOUBLE THUNDER could get the jump on them at projected slightly longer odds though not much between the two. Those runners the edge over #4 GLOBAL EMPIRE taking the class rise though can be used underneath.

The early pace should be contentious with #6 LITTLE STEVEN in Q1 on a three race win streak though taking a rise in class with the higher par and some HARD efforts into this race. #2 GENERAL ISSUE showing their best this season when LONE and likely joined by #7 CONI’S COUP as they make their second start off the layoff and could be given an excuse in the 6/5 return as they were very fractious in the GATE and bumped around at the start (TROUBLE_S) before making a WIDE RUSH and eventually losing ground.

#1 SHAKE UP is a bit of a wild card as they still must prove themselves around two turns. They did score with the 7.5f turf win at CBY closing out 2024, holding just enough with the BLANKET finish, five together at the wire. The connections did stretch out on the grass last month and could be intent to give the route option. In terms of form cycle, they are following an every other pattern and even suggest moving forward as well as the front wrap removal in that recent start. 

The change in class is notable for #5 SADIE’S SWEET RIDE as they make the move to statebred company and should move up naturally off their figures in with today’s field/par. She showed run on debut mostly after the wire with a GALLOP+ and should be fit unable to save any ground at any point of call with the WIDE trip around two turns on 6/12.  

#8 CHELA found the change in class to statebred company on 6/29 though after making a RUSH was no match for the BOS chalk winner, Wednesday Addams. Going back to her 6/1 debut the common race with SADIE’S SWEET RIDE, CHELA (B-) raced GREEN another RUSH and sneaky CLOSE noting she was the lone 4yo in the field that day.

#4 SABRE ATTACK makes the change in class for this second start though a very positive surface switch as she is all TURF! She should move up on the grass and even with the 6/17 experience racing GREEN broke SLOG/TROUBLE_S and in hand/NO_PUSH late with those turfy visuals down the lane. Stablemate #2 DAISY MAE ATTACK took some early wagering support in the turf debut last September. The outside draw and WIDE trip did her no favors and similar for this longer bodied type drawing the rail recently.

#7 TIZMEONEMORETIME was upgraded with the surface switch making a belated return to the TURF on 6/29, showing improvement and slight upgrade pushing the pace with NO_COVER. That 6/29 event, a common race for many in this field including their place stablemate #6 HARPER BRIANA making a late close, though perhaps flattered with the race flow and was able to save some ground from the rail. #1 SKIP TO BALI and #3 WAHIDA OF MARDEN have established form and figures though  need their best effort and lack the potential improvement compared to their lightly raced rivals.