Handicapper Tips & Picks

With one barn represented with a pair in this five horse field and that pair from strong debut barn L. Rivelli, the analysis starts there. Many of the published dates match up for the duo with #4 CHIEF MORTER given the faster published time from the gate on 7/13 over #5 CHI TOWN PRINCE. While that starts the handicapping on paper. This race starting off the card allows for more information as the board and paddock are necessary pieces of the handicapping puzzle and made available.

#2 GAVEL could be poised to be the second half off a L. Rivelli double returning from the layoff and patient waiting for this spot noting three scratches (twice at Hawthorne at the open $25k claiming level) since the 4/27 start. They could find the right scenario for their runstyle that is key for a horse that projects a shorter number lacking any strong edge on class/speed, though on par all the same.

Value sits with #3 CORTESE, a horse that has had some physical issues not just noting recent visuals but the pattern of layoff lines. That does require value, and at the same time could suggest a horse that comes out race ready off this type of break. The connections return to $25k claiming company and not a questionable drop, nothing they were claimed for $10k last October, was competitive in at the $25k claiming level last September and already scored the win at the higher OC/40 level back on 4/6 – an identical par to today.

The class DROP is key for #1 NEON DEION returning to the turf and back to the level where they picked up the win back on 5/25. They have held their form since with the late surface switch (WEATHER) on 6/8 and higher par impacting the outcome on 6/26.

Keying back to the 5/25 common race #4 MAN ON ATTACK was in the right spot to compete though perhaps not their ideal trip. They were asked to show early speed for a horse that has route speed though not the same as sprinting. A rider change coming back in here and sitting ABOVE+ on class could be the key changes to compete today. Looking at the Standard Plot (current form) MAN ON ATTACK should find a tracking trip and first run on that Q1/3 flight that also includes common rival #7 NAGY AND DA BEARS.

#6 SHARP STICK is a bit of a “wild card” today as they makes the distance change, the first time in a turf sprint and one that has had their success around two turns. With that unknown on distance, they exchange class, dropping to this lower par. For the first time as an older horse. In terms of current form, it might not appear much “on paper” however recorded a solid figure in the dirt sprint return on 4/10 followed that up with an EX – EXCUSE on 5/1, raced X_FLOW on 5/22 and was first of the cycle on 6/29. 

Looking at the Plot, #4 NEW YEAR SURPRISE presents the controlling speed and even as a Large Circle (lack of finish though will discuss why the shape is what it is in the next sentence) could present a front running threat. The Large Circle in in part of the 5/22 and 6/8 dirt starts both of those races with a Very Fast Early and Late race shape, playing a role in the “lack of finish” and shown as a Circle here. They are also above the ParLine and could find enough separation to clear early and the lower race par to hold late.

Show finisher form the 6/8 common race, #6 SIXWILLBERICH will look to get back to that effort and on a quick turnaround coming out of the 7/12 FP start where they were in hand/NO_PUSH after losing ground in the early stages.

#2 LOOKIN FOR REVENGE picked up a win under similar conditions last season. They fell into a PERFECT trip on 6/15 and did pair up the win by open lengths with the step up in class on 7/11, however caught a lower par/WEAKER with that race moved to the main track and falling into a FREE trip at the same time. There was also a different scenario at that time with the benefit of racing as they return from the 214-day layoff today and has not had this time of long layoff since a 384-day break back in November 20121 and finished well off the board in that race, coming back in a second start with a strong figure and place finish.

#3 DIAMOND DAVE has some reservations while coming off the 313-day layoff on 6/29 though now has the benefit of recency second off and subtle change in class with a slightly lower par for this 10yo gelding, this time around. The change in race par is significant for #1 SHADY MCGEE and also in a second off portion of their form cycle. The connections could just be looking for the right spot for a win (recent win 8/2024) and making a rider change following the SLOG/TACTIC- just 10-days ago. 

#2 ROARING VIXEN projected to move up with the surface switch to TURF and will get another try on the grass with some changes. The number did improve slightly and could once again given a slight flow upgrade chasing the Very Fast early pace while making the key change from MSW to MCL for the first time here. A similar flow upgrade follows #9 CATNIP HILL one that must also find a way to run “faster” though the class DROP makes the right level of sense to give them their best chance to do so.

#3 REIMAGINE has been looking for a positive surface switch return to the TURF and in this spot also finding the right level and two turn distance for their abilities. They started out last summer as a juvenile in the shorter sprints waiting to STRETCH out while also needing the racing and DROP to find the right level.

The change in class is noted for #1 TRINITYTHREEINONE after an interesting TACTIC- and strong CLOSE where she had shown run in spots and appears to be putting it all together. Looking at the Plot, she sits right in line both on position and shape with rival REIMAGINE and projects much higher of the two on the board.

Common rival #8 CHINATOWN GIRL showed some run in debut and might have lost their race at the GATE (fractious) with a slight upgrade chasing NO_COVER on a Fast (early/late) pace before NO_KEEP and NO_PUSH after. The change in class is technically there for #6 UNKEPT PROMISES returning to this circuit though finding closer to a lateral par from the pair of B- efforts on 4/24 and 5/15.

#7 D’ARGONAUT had a look coming back for a belated second start and from a STRONG MSW debut last October at BAQ. That translated to a B OptixGRADE under similar conditions in the 7/10 sprint they stretch out from here. 

#8 WINGING WAYS  could be tough to rundown on the front end as a solid Square near the ParLine in Q1. If they find strong pace pressure from #7 LATE BLACKSMITH – one that is in the same Plot position overlapping however not the same finishing ability as a Circle – the trip could present favorable and first run for #1 TALLAPOOSA and even longshot #6 CHAMPAGNE MIKE, one that took sneaky money on 7/3 (opening as the favorite) and showing improvement as of late.

Trip could be tougher for Q4 Square, #1 ANCIENT MAN though one that is not out of it. They have the pattern of SLOG while sprinting and played a role back on 6/12 making a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ at the 5.f distance and made a MOVE slightly flow aided with the place finish in the 7/3 common race.

The change in distance presents some unknowns for #4 STORM’S REFLECTION and #5 LINE TO GAIN, two runners that find a key change in class from their most recent starts and overall at the right level for their abilities. 

#3 DANVILLE has waited out of their time first off the claim for this return and change in class. They present upside following the TACTIC- and WIDE trip off a Very Slow early and late pace last month. They paired up wins and B efforts at this level earlier this season. Trip should still be considered with their runstyle though the pace projects to be honest with the inside pair of #1 FLYING SAMURAI and #2 EUCLID AVENUE the latter holding the class edge, though the change in class after competitive races, creates questions on intent.

The change in class also noted for #9 REGIMENTAL though more reasonable in this case taking the step up in the two starts following the 5/29 win and compromised with the timing and TACTIC- on 6/12 and the SLOG into that Very Slow early/late pace on 7/6.

A value case can be made for #4 FIRST MASAMUNE looking at the Plot and with now the main track and two-turn foundation.

#6 ROCKET HOTSHOT also returns fresh off the two month break and might have required the time working to make a CLOSE X_FLOW (Slow early pace) to score back on 5/18. Rested through June, they return with a pair of works to get race ready and familiar hands with Giles back aboard. ON the topic of working HARD both horse and rider with the B+ win from #7 JET FLIGHT/L. Colon just 10-days ago and that timing paired with a shorter number is less than ideal.

#8 CONTRABANDISTA could be live with their return to Hawthorne for trainer K. Jansen - a barn that did not send any runners out during the 2024 season, though had a solid 2023 campaign with two wins in nine starters (22%) and another three finishing (56%) in the money.