Handicapper Tips & Picks

For this turf sprint there are not many front runners giving the edge to those runners with early speed. #8 ANNA AFTER MIDNIGHT looks to take up that role as they return to the turf and sprint distance for the first time since last year. The race last October was late in the season and at the higher allowance conditions while also not the most ideal trip, that combination of factors playing a role in the outcome on the day. While that can be taken as an excuse, she still must prove herself on the surface/distance while the pace advantage is their positive. 

#4 GEORGIA ON E'SMIND brings in current turf form and subtle upgrade from the two races this season. She is given a flow-upgrade staying on as the BOS through a Very Fast early pace and forced to RUSH NO_COVER in the 7/10 event and now should sit inside of the other speed in the field with the advantage there on both fronts. 

#1 APRIL'S GEM brings in a subtle class edge and the DROP with the higher race par events she exits into this race. Trip will be key given the described potential dynamic as well as the rail draw and making the transition back to the sprint distance. She has added the front wraps in the most recent starts and showing up with a change in that equipment could further intent. #7 EXCELERINA also finds a softer par from the most recent starts and overall figures fit on par and going back to prior seasons has run the highest numbers in this field - class and speed are not the hurdles here as the change to the shorter sprint is a strong unknown when a shorter number can be projected. 

#2 REBA ATTACK will also require the right trip at the same time the case can be made for her as an individual. The return to the TURF appears a positive both based on physicality and intent. The lone start on the turf last season was at the higher open allowance condition and number wise recorded a figure that fits with today's par. In terms of current class, this can be taken as a lateral move based on the most recent starts. 

The dominate maiden win and figure for #1 BYWORD does not appear a one-off and returning to that effort fits as a major player here. Since that win, the connections were ambitious with the step up in class and timing back two weeks later on 5/11 and brings upside from the most recent starts given the class and trips. The far outside post and making a RUSH WIDE on the turf for 7/5 can be taken as near "excuse" very tough to overcome; and going back to the 5/29 start the trip racing RANK after the SLOG while COVER/SAVED impacted their outcome. They return under those N2 $12.5k claiming conditions and the maiden win rider O. Hernandez suggests intent. 

Looking at the Plot BYWORD bring in early speed (Q1) though could find themselves chasing #2 BOONE'S PATH as they return from the 74-day layoff. In addition to the freshening, they are looking to get back to top form with the slight drop in class and rider change with J. Loveberry taking over to suggest and present further intent - and the barn also entering #4 HAWAIIAN HIDE AWAY one that will be wheeling right back with a rise in class, signs to suggest they are entered to help fill the race. 

If those two battle each other early (and even potentially take other pace pressure from the others in this field that will be stretching out from the recent sprint distance) #5 REMEMBER THE FEAR will look to take over late. They fit off their overall form going back to the 5/18 turf start making a CLOSE after the SLOG and needed the STRETCH from the 7/6 turf sprint when also making a SLOG CLOSE and solid GALLOP+ out. Their trip was less ideal returning on 7/15 at HS Indy in addition to the timing caught the WEATHER impacted poor track conditions and after breaking SLOG was pinballed around between horses (TROUBLES+) making a late MOVE. 

This is a very competitive race with many that fit off form in the races this season as well as others showing up with the change in class. #3 HAWKS CREEK finds the change in class racing for the claiming tag and some reservations with that move on principal while capable off their overall form and the connections could just be looking for the right spot to win, even if it means a claim. They will be joined by their A. Hernandez stablemate #7 BOURBON LIFE making their way back to Hawthorne and back to this turf course and similar claiming conditions to where they were competitive during the 2024 season. 

In terms of the 6/26 common race: #1 HARD TO FATHOM has a look coming right back second off and under the right conditions for their abilities. They should benefit from the recent fitness making a RUSH and WIDE in the process, often a tough trip to overcome. #6 ICE SHARD also had the hurdle of a long layoff that day and likely needed the start noting the SLOG and visually a solid CLOSE, something tougher to see with the running line and finishing position. They should benefit from the start, slight addition of ground and notable rider change with L. Colon taking over today. #5 NATHANIEL'S HOPE brings in current form and overall consistent type that shows up and runs their race. They require the right trip and a new top effort to win and price compensation with those factors in play. 

#2 D DAY REUNION finds considerable class relief off their races this season and should be at the right level to compete on either surface. They were pointed to the turf picking up the off-the-turf win back on 5/22 working HARD to get the win that day. That taxing effort paired with the timing and step up in class (along with less than ideal rider TACTIC-) did not allow the right conditions to compete on the grass last month at CD. 

Looking at the Plot, #5 R U JOKING looks to hold a clear pace advantage (Q1) in this field and should be tough on the front end. That advantage is only further when looking at Surface/Distance with R U JOKING well clear in Q1 and above the ParLine giving them the ABOVE edge on Plot/Pace in this field. While they are stepping up to take on winners for the first time, their figures sit ABOVE+ and noted dominant over the maiden field on 6/24 at FP. 

The connections of #3 EL MUCHO are showing some confidence with the return to allowance company. They started out their racing career also confidently in stakes company as a juvenile ultimately an abbreviated season coming back off the layoff in 2023 picking up the maiden win. they struggled with some layoffs showing run in spots and those efforts giving them a look as they return this season and returned professionally picking up the win on 4/3. The follow an "every other" pattern into this race and sneaky good effort in the 5/25 trip earning a B- OptixGRADE while racing X_WIDE, a trip that is often impossible to compete with. 

If starting the analysis with pace... who is it? There are no confirmed front runners in this field though could see #8 TIE BREAKER LENNIE forced to go with some natural speed paired with the outside post and even some expectations with #5 A P BLAZING GREEN and #6 MISSED OPTION take that role by default stretching out in distance from the sprint races. There are other further hurdles (class/speed/stamina) though a factor to consider on dynamic.

The inside post and O. Mojica should allow #1 I O FEDRO an inside tracking trip with out getting too far out of it early while returning from the layoff in the right spot for their abilities. #2 PROFESSOR HIGGINS has trip as their prime hurdle though in terms of form and class is well position to pick up that very belated second win. They have been competitive in each of their claiming races to date and return with a little more time between starts noting the one-week turnaround and TRAFFIC TROUBLE trip on 7/6. 

Also from the 7/6 common race: #3 KINGSBURRY ATTACK showing up off the long 273-day layoff that day likely needed the race and has improved second off in prior patterns; #4 MOONRISE DRIVE brings in current form though has not show much speed figure progression though at the right level and with their PLODDY style, that can require things to fall the right way to win. Number wise #7 LONE RETURN has shown improvement in the two recent starts, though still could be on the lighter side overall. 

Unlike the scenario in Race 5, the early pace in Race 6 should be honest a change to the Fire Contention on OptixPLOT with six of the eight runners positioned in Q1/left of the y-axis. That Contention could assist runners from off the pace and the type of race to take a swing with those prices. #6 MINIMO finds a change in race shape from their most recent starts and could be the right change they need. Looking at the Plot they are capable with the Contention and positioned in Q4 as a Square on Surface/Distance as well as Standard (current form) giving them the edge on that front over rival #3 HOLDEN MICHAEL, a Standard Circle.

#5 FREEDOM EMPIRE could also find the right trip and back at the level where they were claimed on 6/1. The trip for them was subtle that day making the first start on this circuit while also racing on the day as the lone 3yo in the field against older. Their overall form, runstyle and finishing ability is similar to #2 SHAMAN SEZ, a logical type in this race and as projected by the ML. 

Looking at the Plot, the majority of the field sitting as Circles is tough to ignore the Large Square of #6 WOLF HUNTER in this race. They appear to have found the right group looking for that belated win coming in not only ABOVE on Plot/Speed but added ABOVE+ on Class. Current form also consistent second start of the year recording a B- OptixGRADE in the WEATHER impacted surface switch return on 6/8 while making a RUSH and staying on as the BOS. 

Improvement could be projected for #7 KISS MY CHARMS starting out two turns on the turf last month and with a WIDE trip in a race won by open lengths with the field spaced out at the wire. #3 CASH APP MIKE one that receives a flow-upgrade part of the Fast early pace on the day and overall upgrade for the surface/distance conditions making the change to turf and two turns. They recorded the same C+ OptixGRADE despite a different trip to rival #8 CRUZIN N CURSIN with the race flow making a WIDE MOVE.