Handicapper Tips & Picks

The race shape should be honest early with the higher 72 SpeedRate despite the Snowflake Contention. That is in part to the two A. Hernandez runners with #7 BETWITHBOTHHANDS stretching back out returning with the change in class and the outside draw should be forwardly placed given all those factors in play; #4 POLTERER is not a “need the lead” though one that does their better running close to the pace – they are giving up recency though capable given class and Plot position/shape.

The other Square #6 ROTARY DIAL fits today’s race shape and has run well under similar dynamic in the past. That should be key to rebound and capable of doing so given the recent trip from 7/10, where intent lacking in preference of stablemate and not asked for their best on the day.

#5 RICKY BOBBY also should take to today’s conditions and dynamic. They bring in current form third start back from the layoff, a competitive race on return in for the $12.5 tag on 6/22 and intent to run at Hawthorne noting they were entered and scratched twice last season both races at the OC$50k level and with today’s rider, I. Hernandez named. 

Looking at the Past 3 Runlines there are only two runners in the field that lack the Bold Red Keywords in OptixNOTES and that will be used as the separator in this competitive group.

#3 HEAVENLY HASH should hold value while bringing in buried form and some subtle changes for this race such as distance back to 6f. They pick up a rider change following a TACTIC- two weeks ago and upgraded chasing a Slow early and late pace (Sun/17 SpeedRate, lower than today) and made a late MOVE and GALLOP+.

#5 RUNNERS HEAT returns with some class relief from the two most recent starts paired with TROUBLE_S in both and WIDE in the recent 6/26 start. She was competitive with the two show finishes under similar conditions earlier this seasons and showing early speed in both, a runstyle she has in her though not a need the lead and arguably could prefer a tracking trip – one when looking at the Plot they could fall into. 

Another approaching round of rain could move this event to the main track and assist those MTO runners. #8 PAT’S PROPERTY holds tactical speed and appears to have intent not only as MTO but also form over this course including two wins (1 each in 2023 and 2024) under similar OC conditions and par. Their other Hawthorne start was also credible given the timing and placement in the 2022 Work All Week stakes.

#9 EMPIRE BUILDER takes the rise in class after a dominant B+ front end effort and recorded a big number in the $25k claiming race last month. It is reasonable off that to take the rise in class and given the 56-days recovery as well. Stablemate #6 PROTONIC POWER is not entered MTO though extremely versatile and another with form over this course and allowance condition. They should benefit from the return race earlier this month, a race they were giving up 389-days of recency and find a change in draw as well moving off the inside. 

#1 CAMP DADDY takes the rise back up in class for this second start off the layoff and could be some positive signs with that change as well as a return to the extended sprint distance. They have natural early speed though perhaps not quite “sprint speed” and tactically could see that change here especially with today’s race shape and when looking at Surface/Distance. CAMP DADDY shifts from their Standard (current form) Q1 Square (also favorable) to the Q2 Square. That tracking trip could be favorable in this case with the presence of the other Q1/3 rivals including Circles #3 ELI’S PROMISE and #4 INDYVILLE and should be joined with the outside two #5 BILL’S HONOR and #6 CLYDE’S GREEN GO shipping in from FP.

That noted Contentious (Fire) and honest (50 SpeedRate) early pace is noted for #2 CORTESE with the Large Q4 Square (Strong late kick from well off the pace) as they wheel back from the win just 11-days ago and also taking the rise up the class ladder. 

As eluded to earlier on the card this race could change significantly with a move to the main track. With that said, many in this field have run on the main track and hold surface versatility to compete, especially when placed at the right level for their abilities.

#5 BABE IN THE WOODS being one of those finding the belated STRETCH out in distance from the recent series of sprints and holds solid form over the Hawthorne turf. The main track route form is perhaps “less obvious” given the finishing positions. That includes the two route races starting off the year at OP both at a higher par and WIDE trip off the bench with the outside post in January and slight flow upgrade coming back on 2/3 when the rider dropped the whip in the stretch.

#10 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN also brings in buried competitive dirt form and recent form with some changes here from the two July starts. She took hold males on 7/6 while fractious in the GATE and given no favors with the outside draw, pushing an honest pace (FTQ) a tougher trip all around on this course. They wheeled right back and a different GATE issue as she was unprepared at the break forced to make a WIDE RUSH before losing ground and overall seemed to require more time between starts. She could also require a rider change and A. Santos landed the pick up mount and place finish aboard in that 6/12 start.

The lone MTO #13 BALLYBAY BEAUTY could be looking for that change and similar racing luck picking up the MCL win last out entered and winning as the lone MTO in the field that day.

Unlike a lot of the dirt races earlier on the card with the higher SpeedRate, that changes here with the Lower rating. The contention is still a Sun with three of the seven sharing the EP RunStyle and four to the left of the y-axis. That lower SpeedRate is represented visually on the Plot as well with the entire field below the ParLine. That scenario can move up the Squares of #4 WE MISS ARLINGTON and #6 SUPREMELY and outside with #7 LUCKY SHOT looking to rate off that pair with first run.

There is a scenario where the SpeedRate is a touch higher noting #1 RUSSIAN TO WIN can show early speed keying off their 2025 OP races going back to 1/19 when they won on the lead as the BOS while WIDE and also took part in a WIDE DUEL on 4/6. They were unable to make the lead on 6/29 with the SLOG and SAVED TROUBLE from the rail chasing a Slow early and Very Slow late pace. They pick up a rider change to O. Mojica, a rider that has been aboard in the past including a win in 2024 to suggest intent all around.

Some price compensation is required with #5 DOUBLE THUNDER given the projected dynamic and trip (Q4 Square) from off the pace though is not out of it. They bring in current form, second of the cycle, with competitive races this season and in the past under a similar par/level. 

#3 CHAOS REIGNS can be upgraded in today’s race shape (Q1) and from the 7/3 start race X_FLOW part of the Very Fast early (and Fast late) pace, playing a role in the Plot shape today. They were also giving up recency into the 7/3 start coming off a 46-day freshening and should hold fitness second-off here. Depending on the tactical decision from J. Loveberry aboard #6 STRONGER TOGETHER, there could be a scenario with CHAOS REIGNS lone on the lead.

From the opposite end, #4 WHAT A COUNTRY (Q4 Circle) brings some upside second off and returning from the 282-day layoff for the 6/21 FP race. The timing paired with the in-running visuals could suggest “prep” as they were WARM and rider TACTIC- took hold dropping back and WIDE from off the pace making a late MOVE all around did not appear asked for their best on the day. They require their best to win and while not also consistent with the effort needed to get the job done here, they have those races in them.

While #1 EYE DEE KAY earned a lot of respect for their B OptixGRADE and figure in the place effort earlier this month, they were on an “every other” pattern cycling to a top that day. That could see some regression, something to consider on value – value that could shift to stablemate #5 SOUL COAXING one that also following an “every other” pattern with this timing their upswing here.

The Plot position and shape for SOUL COAXING especially on Standard is favorable and all around in line with their stablemate EYE DEE KAY as well as #7 CALIBRATE and #2 C F V BULLET, runners that could land public support returning here off wins. 

If projected favorite #4 SHADY MCGEE is to be beat it could be on the front end while on value there is reason to move up #5 GLOBAL EMPIRE given the projected longer odds of the two and similar Plot position and shape.

In terms of the early lead. #7 CONI’S COUP did not try for the lead on 7/17 not only took them out of their race (TACTIC- NO_PUSH) but also perhaps assisted the top two (Little Steven and General Issue) both racing forwardly placed taking out some of their main pace contention. Some intent could be in play with CONI’S COUP more assertively handled today while also coming back on a quicker 17-day turnaround and with the class drop.

Intent could also follow #6 TRY TRY AGAIN a horse that appeared to be racing into form coming off the layoff and with the front wrap removal. They stepped forward under these conditions last month and could hold intent and another step forward today. A rider change is made with A. Gonzalez picking up a pair of mounts for trainer F. Alonso (RACE 5: Misty Sunday) and an overall accomplished rider shifting to IL for 2025 and while looking for their first win of the year they have been ITM with limited FP starts and knocking on the door. 

#3 STASHU has surface versatility while showing up for their first start on this circuit and looking to find the right placement for their abilities while still remaining protected for their connections. That has been the biggest hurdle for them throughout these first two seasons and especially coming back this year as a sophomore. Each of the three starts in KY landed a higher race par than today’s even and should move up naturally with that key change.

#5 BALADINE returns with the slight freshening (35-days) and a rider change while brining in consistent and competitive form this season. They took a tough beat off the layoff on 4/10 recorded a B OptixGRADE though that big effort and seasonal top figures could have played a role in the slight number regression that followed running back on the shorter rest (and often higher par) playing a role in outcome as well.

J. Felix had been aboard BALADINE in the recent starts and shifts to the stablemate of STASHU in #7 HOBBS for trainer J. Wainwright. HOBBS had a big look showing up in the 7/13 race with the STRETCH out in distance and given an EX with the trip on the day. While they present upside coming back from the EX they have the distance change and back to the shorter 5.5f in play.