Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 BIG D will get another look after making a positive PRERACE+ appearance in the paddock when initially entered on 7/20. They also had wagering support though restless in the GATE was late scratch, forced to wait for another day. That entry just a few weeks ago so appears no worse for the wear publishing a work on 7/30 and retaining L. Colon, the rider assigned last time around while moving to the turf today.

Their stablemate #3 THIS BEAU KNOWS brings in steady works and live rider assignment with O. Mojica aboard and will get a chance with this race early on the card to assess physical readiness.

In terms of the L. Rivelli pair: #6 BIAGODDESS has a start with that experience noted and will race as the lone filly in the field and outside of the other runner with experience #7 INSTASTAR the other runners in this field are all geldings. #1 ELMORE brings in a longer steady work tab and should be as race ready as they ever will be. In terms of 2yo FTS debuting on the turf at Hawthorne*, this is not a common spot for them to show up – since 2020 there has only been 6 starters with 1 finishing show as the best result in that sample. *there has been other runners out of town in this category with success, 2 wins in the fall FG 2024 season horses that could also run on Lasix.

#5 GOGH could be ready to go first out with some solid works though a slight gap in the published series from 6/22 to 7/13 and even two weeks from the two most recent half mile moves. #4 THIEVER despite being an IN-bred debuts here and brings in a steady series some “bullet” moves in the 3f drills. 

The class drop should allow for the two projected favorites #4 MARY MOONGLOW and #6 SAVVY SMILA the right spot to compete. Of the two there they are quite similar and tough to split though perhaps giving SAVVY SMILA the edge as not only should she be longer odds of the two but recorded a B OptixGRADE back on 6/5 and a B- with the trip on 6/29 intimidated/SCARED with rail run in the lane.

The change in class also followed #3 ILLY SIMZ into the 7/13 return and also given a look in here once again. Number wise she will be tested to improve though this (like last out) should be the time and place. Showing some run in spots during the three OP starts she was upgraded on 7/13 though in the paddock was quiet/PRERACE- and in running had a legitimate EX – EXCUSE on the trip. From the rail she had significant TROUBLES+ with a stumble and contact and tougher to see on the running line made a solid middle MOVE X_FLOW.

#2 LIL CARRIE D overall fits with this group as she makes her second start off the layoff and a credible effort in the 7/13 return. While capable and with some of her more competitive races in the past at the route/two-turn distance prefer some other runners on top. 

This is a good race to find value as #3 ZOOMBIE (against) projects to be favored and get a lot of attention for the connections, prior placement while also coming into this race off a win in their most recent start. While capable they should be an underlay with those noted factors in play (things the public will overvalue) especially the win on 7/14 given the right ride to win and also benefit from the 1-2 chalk Spoke getting stuck behind horses and might have been a different outcome with that runner finding a clear trip.

There are not only alternatives to the favorite but also contenders: #1 DINOS DIXIE should present a pace advantage in this group with the rail draw, slight change in distance back to 5f and given a BOS X_FLOW upgrade from the 7/6 race. Racing X_FLOW and NO_COVER played a role in their finish and outcome and similar going back to the 5/11 return making a RUSH into a Fast early (and late) pace; those efforts impacting their Plot shape today as a Circle while also holding as the lone runner in the field above the ParLine. #2 GRAND HIDEAWAY brings in current form second off, form over this course and distance. A lot of their success has been with today’s rider L. Colon aboard (4 starts together with 3 wins) and a key live rider change. 

Trainer J. Campbell has a solid 1-2 punch in this race with the pair: #1 RACING THE LIGHT brings in early speed and upgrade from the 7/4 ELP start when racing as the lone 3o against older and a higher race par than what they return to today at Hawthorne; #5 SHE STOPPED SHORT brings in a complementary runstyle to stalk and pounce. She also brings in upside as an individual with the freshening for this second start against wines and a change in class as well.

#4 JOYZELLA is a legitimate longshot to win though one to use underneath following the upswing of an “every other” pattern and returning to face F&M a change from the route on 7/24, a race that was also impacted with a WEATHER DELAY and her WIDE trip with NO_PUSH also factors to further strike a line through. 

In terms of speed figures, the recent numbers are the same for the bookends of this field while giving the edge to #1 GUNNY SACK with their higher figures on the turf compared to #7 FRONTIER MARSHALL on the dirt especially if the former does hold longer odds of the two.

GUNNY SACK finds a lateral change in class if not a softer spot after catching a higher par in against open $15k MCL company last month recording a B- OptixGRADE in the process. FRONTIER MARKET returns with a slight35-day freshening and overall has been consistent this season both on speed figures and B- OptixGRADES. They finds a subtle change outside of the surface switch in terms of post position and rider following the TACTIC- in the 6/29 recent start.

Over the past 5 years trainer S. Becker (#3 YORKTON WHEAT) has had a smaller sample of FTS at Hawthorne and in those 12 starters without a win. There were three to hit the board with all three taking wagering support (<3-1) and something to follow along with prerace visuals. 

Starting the analysis with pace/Plot and the majority runners returning from the 7/17 common race. Looking at the Plot there is a scenario with #5 SECESSION with a pace advantage and in position to take this field gate-to-wire. Today’s race shape is a slightly different dynamic with the Fire (7/17) compared to the Sun today both events with the same SpeedRate.

The other two runners in Q1 with #6 VIA DEL CORSO (no value/vulnerable on 7/17) could show early speed today as that is often the intent though unreliable to do so with the pattern of GATE issues that has been present since the debut. #3 LARRY THE POET had a live look and ran to it (B OptixGRADE) making a WIDE RUSH tracked by the eventual winner, Verrazanointhesky those two together in a photo.

#1 CANYON SHADOWS is the wild card not only with a chance to return to competitive ways but also in terms of tactics. They had to RUSH returning from the layoff from the rail on 7/6 and was WARM again with a RUSH on 7/17 though outside and behind horses taking KICKBACK- something that impacted their race on the day and should be something they try to avoid here. While not the most efficient out of the gate, they bring in tactical speed, their maiden win was from the rail winning on the lead and with that tactic today could apply pace pressure to SECESSION, something that is not displayed on the Plot. #7 RED MOSCATO was compromised at the break with their head turned (TROUBLES+) and some subtle excuse on that front though finished off well making a WIDE CLOSE though is  another that could return to a prior runstyle and show early speed.

#2 SHARP STICK is the new face taking a different path into this race and could be overlooked given the recent running lines and finishing positions. Those factors gave them a potential value look on 7/20 however things changed with the surface switch and scratches as well as the trip as they had a TROUBLE_S losing their footing out of the gate and from there in running TROUBLE while showing making a MOVE behind the pacesetting winner with the top three together  at the wire. 

#6 DAPPER DUDE can be given a look in here and should hold value despite coming off  a dominant B+ win last out (7/8) at FP. Looking at the Plot, the position and shape is not “ideal” however trips, timing and class placement has played a role in how they show up today and returning to a top effort they are right in the mix to compete.

#7 MAASAI WARRIOR has been patiently waiting for a return to the turf and moves up in this group with that change looking at Surface/Distance a strong Square with tracking/tactical speed to fit today’s race shape. That carries to Standard (current form) to rate close to the pacesetters in here as #1 VITALE wheels right back and should be on send mode once again from the rail and expect #3 BAKENAKO to return to front running ways where they have been more effective. Establishing position will be key as #9 HUMBLE WARRIOR from the outside will be looking to make the lead from out of the gate into the first turn.

Even with a contentious (Sun) early pace trip will be crucial for #5 TEMPER TANTRUM (Q4 Square) returning  with a subtle change in class for this second start of the cycle making a WIDE CLOSE in the 6/29 starter allowance. 

Tough to knock either of the M. Boyce runners coming back from the BLANKET finish with the top four together at the wire with both #6 BUTTONS AND LACE and #7 RIETTA recording B- OptixGRADE. The race shape Fast early/late could give RIETTA the upgrade making a RUSH into the POCKET while BUTTONS AND LACE shifted out wide to make her late MOVE. Tactically, trips will be key for both and with the subtle change in distance to 7.5f and a quick run into the first turn.

#4 SUPRISE ME AGAIN was also part of the BLANKET finish chasing behind the pacesetters and eventual winner, My Buddy Brooks. SUPRISE ME AGAIN was WARM on the day though not out of character for her though did have the additional hurdle with the rise in class back to allowance company stepping up off the B+ $25k conditional claiming win in June.

Looking at the Standard Plot, if the reasoned case can be made for SUPRISE ME AGAIN a value case can be made for #8 SECRET OPERATION with a similar position. SECRET OPERATION does not hold many efforts on the turf around two turns (or two turns all together) so it is positive in this case to show up as Surface/Distance Square. Her recent form and figures along with class also fits while returning from a less than ideal “trip” on 6/26 as shown with the OptixNOTES in the Past 3 Runlines while also noting the STRETCH Projection.  

#5 KNIGHTOFCARAVAGGIO still lightly raced needed the class DROP they found last month at BTP and assisted with the win landing in the right spot for their abilities. This placement is a slight rise though with similar intent shipping in looking for the right level where she can compete while still racing protected.